well, last of the big BC preps occur today at oak tree, and this card looks a hell of a lot more playable than last sunday's chalk fest. here goes.
r1: small play on mazella. yes, he's by mazel trick, so i do have a soft spot for mazel's offspring, but this horse flashed speed lsat out and now gets the hood and draws outside, which should help him run a lot better (he was buried on the inside in his first two). clearly, resplendecy is the horse to beat and the deserving favorite, but i'll make a small play on mazella.
r4: furious cat. o.k, we both know agorein is going to be the favorite and perhaps he deserves one more chance. if you watched his last race, it almost looked like he lost intereste midway through the race and then picked up again inside the 16th pole. harty does the obvious thing and puts on the blinkers, but this horse strikes me as a little bit stupid- he probably has a bunch of talent, but can't figure out how to run. anyway, enough animal psychology, i think furious cat is sitting on a big one for dollase- he was off slow in his last and finished like a wild horse on the gallop out. methinks he'll be higher than 3/1, but even that seems fair.
r5: brite betty. this filly looks like a total standout to me. most of the horses with the notable exception of goodbye gambler have raced a bunch of times and probably don't have a ton of improvement left. that said, betty looks like she's sharper than nail right now and if sadler just maintained her edge over the fairplex break, she should be good to go in here.
r6: extreme machine. what a great betting rce as a bunch of these should move through their conditions soon. young pioneer figures the chalk, but despite pressing a fast pace and only yielding late in his last, i like the returning extreme machine, who faced some toughies in his first two races. he's been training like a machine for his returns, and if he's second or third choice, he's worth playing. one additional note, deadly weapon, who figures to take some action is a throout in my book.
r7: zavata. what a great race- only 6 horses, but all can run and win except for lukas' dog. yankee gentleman has done nothing wrong this year and will be tough to beat, but i hope the rail draw compromises his chances a bit. captain squire is a monster and loves santa anita, gets the outside draw and will be tough. however, at 5/1 the value is with zavata who should be pressing the pace under stevens. this son of phone trick has always been a little fragile and an in-n-outer, but i look for him to run better in here. the top 3 finishers are all likely heading to the BC sprint.
r8: no play- don't think we can beat special ring, but designed for luck merits a look, along with green line, the 1-2 finishers from the live the dream handicap. if either drift up in the betting, i'd take a swing.
r9: bingo card. not thrilled with pedroza on closers, but card should show some more speed now that he's under carava's care. this one's always had a touch of class and maybe he may wake up here at a good price.
r10: ruler's court. two days in a row with harty and darley to close the card? i'll always have a soft spot for siphonizer and all sons and daughters of siphon, as i made a HUGE score on siphon in the hollywood gold cup- anyway, siphon was all class and had a huge heart- he'd look his opponents in the eye and find another gear. i'm betting he passes that trait down to his kids (siphonic was going to be a star before his untimely death earlier this year). ok, back to my horse- ruler's court adds blinkers and need only run back to his dominating maiden score to contend in here. at a 5/1 he's worth gambling on. coldntight is the other that scares me- he's by superstar router touch gold and he should just love going a route of ground again. he's my back-up play if he drifts up.
great card, good luck.
r1: small play on mazella. yes, he's by mazel trick, so i do have a soft spot for mazel's offspring, but this horse flashed speed lsat out and now gets the hood and draws outside, which should help him run a lot better (he was buried on the inside in his first two). clearly, resplendecy is the horse to beat and the deserving favorite, but i'll make a small play on mazella.
r4: furious cat. o.k, we both know agorein is going to be the favorite and perhaps he deserves one more chance. if you watched his last race, it almost looked like he lost intereste midway through the race and then picked up again inside the 16th pole. harty does the obvious thing and puts on the blinkers, but this horse strikes me as a little bit stupid- he probably has a bunch of talent, but can't figure out how to run. anyway, enough animal psychology, i think furious cat is sitting on a big one for dollase- he was off slow in his last and finished like a wild horse on the gallop out. methinks he'll be higher than 3/1, but even that seems fair.
r5: brite betty. this filly looks like a total standout to me. most of the horses with the notable exception of goodbye gambler have raced a bunch of times and probably don't have a ton of improvement left. that said, betty looks like she's sharper than nail right now and if sadler just maintained her edge over the fairplex break, she should be good to go in here.
r6: extreme machine. what a great betting rce as a bunch of these should move through their conditions soon. young pioneer figures the chalk, but despite pressing a fast pace and only yielding late in his last, i like the returning extreme machine, who faced some toughies in his first two races. he's been training like a machine for his returns, and if he's second or third choice, he's worth playing. one additional note, deadly weapon, who figures to take some action is a throout in my book.
r7: zavata. what a great race- only 6 horses, but all can run and win except for lukas' dog. yankee gentleman has done nothing wrong this year and will be tough to beat, but i hope the rail draw compromises his chances a bit. captain squire is a monster and loves santa anita, gets the outside draw and will be tough. however, at 5/1 the value is with zavata who should be pressing the pace under stevens. this son of phone trick has always been a little fragile and an in-n-outer, but i look for him to run better in here. the top 3 finishers are all likely heading to the BC sprint.
r8: no play- don't think we can beat special ring, but designed for luck merits a look, along with green line, the 1-2 finishers from the live the dream handicap. if either drift up in the betting, i'd take a swing.
r9: bingo card. not thrilled with pedroza on closers, but card should show some more speed now that he's under carava's care. this one's always had a touch of class and maybe he may wake up here at a good price.
r10: ruler's court. two days in a row with harty and darley to close the card? i'll always have a soft spot for siphonizer and all sons and daughters of siphon, as i made a HUGE score on siphon in the hollywood gold cup- anyway, siphon was all class and had a huge heart- he'd look his opponents in the eye and find another gear. i'm betting he passes that trait down to his kids (siphonic was going to be a star before his untimely death earlier this year). ok, back to my horse- ruler's court adds blinkers and need only run back to his dominating maiden score to contend in here. at a 5/1 he's worth gambling on. coldntight is the other that scares me- he's by superstar router touch gold and he should just love going a route of ground again. he's my back-up play if he drifts up.
great card, good luck.
