Where the action is: Biggest midweek NFL line moves
By JASON LOGAN
It’s Week 4 of the NFL season and football bettors are starting to get a tighter grip on the layout of the league. And that means more opinions – often going against what oddsmakers think – making for some interesting moves in the middle of the week.
We speak with Nick Bogdanovich, head of trading for William Hill sportsbooks in Nevada, about the biggest adjustments to the Week 4 odds and where those games could end up come kickoff.
Detroit Lions at New York Jets – Open: Pick, Move: +1.5
This non-conference clash opened as low as a pick’em, but early money jumped on Detroit – not so much for their impressive win over Green Bay, but due to the Jets’ terrible showing on Monday Night Football. New York was just 1 for 6 in the red zone and wasted plenty of scoring chances thanks to three turnovers (four fumbles, one lost).
“People tend to bet what they’ve seen last. And Detroit looked great against Green Bay while New York was Turnover City against the Bears,” says Bogdanovich, who opened Detroit -1 and moved to -1.5. “We’ll likely need the Jets pretty good by the time the bell sounds on this one.”
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears – Open: -1, Move: +1.5
This line has jumped the fence with early action from the wiseguys settling on Green Bay, despite their 0-2-1 ATS start to the season. As of Wednesday afternoon, books haven’t seen much money on Chicago, which has won two in a row in primetime games since losing to Buffalo in Week 1.
“It must be all pro plays because we have everything on Green Bay right now,” Bogdanovich says. “There’s nothing on Chicago and we’ll likely need the Bears. They won two isolated games on Sunday night and Monday but the pros are on Green Bay and we’ll need Chicago to win something Sunday.”
Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers – Open: -4, Move: -5.5
When it comes to lines for the 49ers in Nevada, you get dealt two very different sets depending on where you are. Books in Las Vegas have a tighter number between these two NFC heavyweights, but that number could be much bigger if you move up north – closer to the Bay Area and a ton of money on San Francisco.
“This is a very interesting game. Philly is 3-0 and was hyped coming into the season, but while this isn’t a must-win game for Frisco, it’s a big game,” Bogdanovich . “It’s a later game on Sunday, a marquee game. We normally need against Frisco in these spots but I couldn’t tell you which way the money is going to go. This is the game I want to watch the most.”
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans – Open: -4, Move: -3
The early money on this question mark of a game has leaned toward Buffalo. However, nobody really knows which one of these teams is for real. Both the Bills and Texans come in at 2-1 and off bad losses in Week 3.
“One of these teams is going to be 3-1 and the other is going to say, ‘Oh, here we go again.’” says Bogdanovich. “There’s a little more on Buffalo than Houston at this point.”
