Sunday 9/27/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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Sunday Night Football Betting Preview: Broncos at Lions


The Broncos remained unbeaten by scoring a pair of touchdowns nine seconds apart in the final minute last week to eke out a stunning 31-24 victory at Kansas City.

Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions (+3, 44.5)

Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos have not looked overly impressive in the young season, but they still have a chance to improve to 3-0 when they visit the winless Detroit Lions on Sunday night. The Broncos remained unbeaten by scoring a pair of touchdowns nine seconds apart in the final minute last week to eke out a stunning 31-24 victory at Kansas City.

“I’m not quite sure I’ve ever been in one quite like that,” Manning said after Bradley Roby returned a fumble for a touchdown with 27 seconds to play in Denver's great escape against the Chiefs. Playing away from home shouldn't faze the Broncos, who set a league record with their 13th straight division road win last week. Detroit has dropped its first two games - both on the road - and is coming off a lackluster performance in a 26-16 loss at Minnesota a week ago. “We’ve got to be more consistent,” Lions coach Jim Caldwell said. “We’re going to make sure that we get ourselves headed in the right direction.”

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Lions as 3.5-point home dogs, but that's down to a field goal. The total opened at 44.5.

INJURY REPORT: Broncos - DE Kenny Anunike (Questionable, knee), LB Lerentee McCray (Questionable, groin), S Omar Bolden (Questionable, foot), DE Derek Wolfe (Elig Week 5, suspension). Lions - QB Matthew Stafford (Questionable, ribs), DT Caraun Reid (Questionable, ankle), LB DeAndre Levy (Doubtful, hip), TE Brandon Pettigrew (Doubtful, hamstring).

WEATHER: N/A

POWER RANKINGS: Broncos (-4.0) - Lions (+2.0) + home field (-3.0) = Broncos -3.0

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Broncos were outgained by more than a full yard per play against KC on Thursday Night. They?'ve gained less than four yards per play YTD, ranked No. 32 in total offense. The Lions running game has been non-existent thus far. Leading RB rusher Ameer Abdullah had just six carries for nine yards in the loss at Minnesota."

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 O/U): After failing to produce an offensive touchdown in the season opener, Manning threw for three scores and 256 yards to join Brett Favre as the only quarterbacks with more than 70,000 passing yards. The biggest concern for Denver is getting a dismal ground game untracked - running back C.J. Anderson has rushed for only 56 yards on 24 carries and the Broncos ranked 29th in the league with an average of 65.0 yards per game. The Broncos' defense has played superbly in the first two games, registering seven sacks and four interceptions while leading the league with an average of 133.5 passing yards allowed.

ABOUT THE LIONS (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS, 1-1 O/U): Detroit blew a 21-3 lead in a season-opening defeat at San Diego and trailed the entire way against Minnesota as quarterback Matthew Stafford was hit early and often, requiring X-rays on his ribs and chest afterward. Calvin Johnson was invisible in the opener before hauling in 10 catches for 83 yards and a TD last week, but rookie running back Ameer Abdullah was held to nine yards after an impressive 94-yard rushing performance in his NFL debut. Plugging the void left by tackle Ndamukong Suh has been a huge issue for the Lions, who are yielding 147.5 yards on the ground after leading the league (69.3) last season.

TRENDS:

* Broncos are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games on fieldturf.
* Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Over is 17-3-1 in Broncos last 21 games on fieldturf.
* Under is 13-3 in Lions last 16 games following a ATS loss.

CONSENSUS: Sixty-four percent are backing the visiting Broncos.

 

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NFL ATS

NFL > (477) INDIANAPOLIS@ (478) TENNESSEE | 2015-09-27 13:00:00 - 2015-09-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE against the spread when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 1 Wins and 11 Losses for the last two seasons (-11.1 units)

NFL > (475) OAKLAND@ (476) CLEVELAND | 2015-09-27 13:00:00 - 2015-09-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST OAKLAND against the spread against AFC North division opponents
The record is 3 Wins and 16 Losses for the since 1992 (-14.6 units)

NFL > (489) KANSAS CITY@ (490) GREEN BAY | 2015-09-28 20:30:00 - 2015-09-28 20:30:00
Play ON GREEN BAY against the spread in games played on a grass field
The record is 11 Wins and 2 Losses for the last two seasons (+8.8 units)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL MONEYLINE

NFL > (473) CINCINNATI@ (474) BALTIMORE | 2015-09-27 13:00:00 - 2015-09-27 13:00:00
Play ON BALTIMORE using money line in September games
The record is 27 Wins and 6 Losses for the since 1992 (+23 units)

NFL > (477) INDIANAPOLIS@ (478) TENNESSEE | 2015-09-27 13:00:00 - 2015-09-27 13:00:00
Play ON INDIANAPOLIS using money line when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 21 Wins and 7 Losses for the last three seasons (+18.75 units)

NFL > (471) JACKSONVILLE@ (472) NEW ENGLAND | 2015-09-27 13:00:00 - 2015-09-27 13:00:00
Play ON NEW ENGLAND using money line when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 13 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+11.8 units)

NFL > (489) KANSAS CITY@ (490) GREEN BAY | 2015-09-28 20:30:00 - 2015-09-28 20:30:00
Play ON GREEN BAY using money line as a favorite
The record is 15 Wins and 1 Losses for the last two seasons (+13.4 units)

NFL > (479) ATLANTA@ (480) DALLAS | 2015-09-27 13:00:00 - 2015-09-27 13:00:00
Play ON DALLAS using money line when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 12 Wins and 3 Losses for the last two seasons (+12.25 units)

NFL > (469) NEW ORLEANS@ (470) CAROLINA | 2015-09-27 13:00:00 - 2015-09-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST NEW ORLEANS using money line in all lined games
The record is 7 Wins and 11 Losses for the last two seasons (-17.6 units)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL FIRST HALF

NFL > (461) PITTSBURGH@ (462) ST LOUIS | 2015-09-27 13:00:00 - 2015-09-27 13:00:00
Play ON ST LOUIS ?>in the first half in non-conference games
The record is 8 Wins and 0 Losses for the last three seasons (+8 units)

NFL > (463) SAN DIEGO@ (464) MINNESOTA | 2015-09-27 13:00:00 - 2015-09-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST SAN DIEGO ?>in the first half in a road game where the first half total is between 21.5 and 22.5
The record is 12 Wins and 33 Losses for the since 1992 (-24.3 units)

 

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NFL TOTALS

NFL > (483) CHICAGO@ (484) SEATTLE | 2015-09-27 16:25:00 - 2015-09-27 16:25:00
Play UNDER CHICAGO on the total as a road underdog of 6 to 8 points vs. the 1rst half line
The record is 2 Overs and 15 Unders for the since 1992 (+12.8 units)

NFL > (479) ATLANTA@ (480) DALLAS | 2015-09-27 13:00:00 - 2015-09-27 13:00:00
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the total when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 0 Overs and 7 Unders for the last two seasons (+7 units)

NFL > (473) CINCINNATI@ (474) BALTIMORE | 2015-09-27 13:00:00 - 2015-09-27 13:00:00
Play UNDER CINCINNATI on the total when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 2 Overs and 11 Unders for the last two seasons (+8.8 units)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL TOP POWERLINES

NFL > (471) JACKSONVILLE @ (472) NEW ENGLAND | 2015-09-27 13:00:00 - 2015-09-27 13:00:00
Line: NEW ENGLAND-13.5 BTB PowerLine: NEW ENGLAND-26
Edge On: NEW ENGLAND (12.5)

NFL > (469) NEW ORLEANS @ (470) CAROLINA | 2015-09-27 13:00:00 - 2015-09-27 13:00:00
Line: CAROLINA-9.5 BTB PowerLine: CAROLINA-11
Edge On: CAROLINA (1.5)

NFL > (465) TAMPA BAY @ (466) HOUSTON | 2015-09-27 13:00:00 - 2015-09-27 13:00:00
Line: HOUSTON-6.5 BTB PowerLine: HOUSTON-13
Edge On: HOUSTON (6.5)

NFL > (463) SAN DIEGO @ (464) MINNESOTA | 2015-09-27 13:00:00 - 2015-09-27 13:00:00
Line: SAN DIEGO BTB PowerLine: SAN DIEGO1
Edge On: SAN DIEGO (2)

NFL > (475) OAKLAND @ (476) CLEVELAND | 2015-09-27 13:00:00 - 2015-09-27 13:00:00
Line: OAKLAND BTB PowerLine: OAKLAND-3
Edge On: OAKLAND (1)

NFL > (473) CINCINNATI @ (474) BALTIMORE | 2015-09-27 13:00:00 - 2015-09-27 13:00:00
Line: BALTIMORE-2.5 BTB PowerLine: BALTIMORE-4
Edge On: BALTIMORE (1.5)

NFL > (479) ATLANTA @ (480) DALLAS | 2015-09-27 13:00:00 - 2015-09-27 13:00:00
Line: DALLAS1 BTB PowerLine: DALLAS-12
Edge On: DALLAS (13)

NFL > (461) PITTSBURGH @ (462) ST LOUIS | 2015-09-27 13:00:00 - 2015-09-27 13:00:00
Line: PITTSBURGH BTB PowerLine: PITTSBURGH2
Edge On: PITTSBURGH (3)

NFL > (477) INDIANAPOLIS @ (478) TENNESSEE | 2015-09-27 13:00:00 - 2015-09-27 13:00:00
Line: INDIANAPOLIS BTB PowerLine: INDIANAPOLIS8
Edge On: INDIANAPOLIS (5)

NFL > (481) SAN FRANCISCO @ (482) ARIZONA | 2015-09-27 16:05:00 - 2015-09-27 16:05:00
Line: ARIZONA-6.5 BTB PowerLine: ARIZONA-8
Edge On: ARIZONA (1.5)

NFL > (485) BUFFALO @ (486) MIAMI | 2015-09-27 16:25:00 - 2015-09-27 16:25:00
Line: BUFFALO BTB PowerLine: BUFFALO6
Edge On: BUFFALO (9)

NFL > (483) CHICAGO @ (484) SEATTLE | 2015-09-27 16:25:00 - 2015-09-27 16:25:00
Line: SEATTLE-14.5 BTB PowerLine: SEATTLE-26
Edge On: SEATTLE (11.5)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sylvania 300 Preview
By Micah Roberts

Boy, we really got some kind of Chase brewing with all kinds of drama after just one race. The defending champ, Kevin Harvick, felt Jimmie Johnson caused his wreck early in the Chicago race last week which caused him to finish 42nd and drop all the way to last place among the 16 drivers in the Chase. After the race, Harvick shoved Johnson.

Yes! A battle between two champions. Love it!

Harvick is now in a situation where he is going to have to most likely win either of the next two races -- Sunday at New Hampshire or next week at Dover -- to stay alive in the Chase.

As we saw last season at Phoenix, never doubt Harvick to do anything when the chips were down. However, if you did want to doubt Harvick you would have stats on your side. While Harvick has more wins than anyone at Phoenix history with seven, including the past four, he has only one win combined on the 1-mile layouts of New Hampshire and Dover.

Still, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook only dropped his odds to win the Sprint Cup from a 4/1 co-favorite last week to 6/1 on Monday, which is the ultimate sign of respect.

Here's a look at the Westgate's updated numbers:

Odds to win 2015 Sprint Cup Championship

Kyle Busch 4/1
Matt Kenseth 5/1
Joey Logano 6/1
Kevin Harvick 6/1
Jimmie Johnson 7/1
Brad Keselowski 8/1
Denny Hamlin 8/1
Carl Edwards 12/1
Martin Truex Jr. 12/1
Kurt Busch 12/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 25/1
Jeff Gordon 30/1
Ryan Newman 60/1
Jamie McMurray 100/1
Clint Bowyer 200/1
Paul Menard 300/1

Sunday's Sylvania 300 will be the second race of the season on New Hampshire Motor Speedway's 1-mile flat track. The best part of handicapping New Hampshire is that we can really get a good grasp of who should do well by looking at results from similar tracks at Phoenix (1-mile) and Richmond (3/4-mile) this season. If a driver does well on one, history shows that they do well on the other.

Back in the day when teams used to list chassis information -- the previous 20 years up until this season -- I noticed that most of the crew chiefs brought the same chassis to each of the three flat tracks, especially those that did well. The results were always there to show similarities over the years, but the chassis angle and similar set-up always stuck with me.

As a bookmaker, I lowered odds on those drivers that performed well on the three tracks and as a bettor I took advantage of other books that were not in tune with NASCAR. The trio of tracks at Phoenix, New Hampshire and Richmond have consistently been my most profitable NASCAR tracks over the past 20-plus years of betting, whether it's odds to win or head-to-head matchups. I could pinpoint the most likely winner to just two or three drivers and wager more on them instead of spreading things around more for less money.

Those trends all still hold true, but we've had a major transition of elite powers in NASCAR this season that probably makes this year the least correlated I've ever seen between the three similar tracks -- no multi-winner yet between four events.

In the first New Hampshire race, held July 19, Kyle Busch was in the middle of dominating the month and it was the beginning of a Joe Gibbs Racing domination period that is still going on now. With Denny Hamlin's win Sunday at Chicago, a JGR driver has now won nine of the past 12 races on the schedule. Joey Logano has snuck in a couple wins over that span -- a bunch of top-fives too -- and Dale Earnhardt Jr. won the race of randomness at Daytona, but other than that it's been all Toyota and Gibbs.

It's been quite an assault on the series, and has created a season that I've never quite seen before. I love NASCAR's ability to change mid-stream with a package, but I also love consistency. What I'm getting right now is only consistency with JGR, but it only started when the low down force package was introduced at Kentucky July 11. Before that, it was the Kevin Harvick show with a top-two finish almost every week and another guy in a bow-tie, Jimmie Johnson, had four wins. It really has been a tale of two seasons. It's been quite a while since I've seen Chevrolet look so ordinary this late.

Matt Kenseth led 352 of 400 laps at Richmond two weeks ago in one of the more dominating performances of the season. He's won three of the past seven races and grabbed his first and only win at NHMS in 2013 during his first year with JGR.

I like the desperation angle with Harvick this week, and I also like Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski to run strong, but there is just too much going right with JGR to go against them, and they come in waves at you. The real question is which one do you pick? Kyle Busch hasn't won in a while and he's a two-time NHMS winner. Hamlin has won two times there, while Edwards is searching for the first of his career.

If we could bet Mega-Sports pari-mutuel style like 15 years ago -- fire it up again with William Hill Mr. Vic Salerno, who brilliantly introduced the product with LeRoy's -- I would box an exacta with Kenseth and Busch and then maybe key those two to Hamlin and Logano on the back end of a trifecta.

Harvick, my pick to win the Chase, is in bad shape right now and while I will never doubt him, I have come to believe that the JGR cars are better than everyone else on 1.5-mile tracks even with the regular aero-package that the season started with. There was some inkling that we might go back to June-type results, but momentum and knowledge have catapulted Toyota and JGR past everyone else.

Hopefully the next nine Chase races don't reflect what we're seeing lately, but I certainly wouldn't be upset for my pocket if Hamlin won his first title.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #20 Matt Kenseth (7/1)
2) #18 Kyle Busch (5/1)
3) #22 Joey Logano (7/1)
4) #11 Denny Hamlin (12/1)
5) #4 Kevin Harvick (5/1)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Drivers to Watch - NH

Sylvania 300

New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Loudon, NH

New Hampshire hosts the Sylvania 300 on Sunday and the drivers will be amped up with only two races left until the contender round begins. New Hampshire Motor Speedway features a track that runs 1.058 miles and has variable banking at 2/7 degrees on the turns and one degree banking on the straightaways.

Denny Hamlin won last week’s myAFibRisk.com 400 race and that put him in second in the Chase rankings and he’s now guaranteed a spot in the next round. Hamlin was racing on a torn ACL, which made the feat even more impressive. Joey Logano will be very excited to get back to Loudon, as he won the Sylvania 300 in 2014. A few other drivers that will be looking forward to this race are Jeff Gordon, Ryan Newman and Clint Bowyer. The three of them have all won this event twice and that type of experience will give them plenty of confidence this weekend.

With only nine races left this season, let’s take a look at who could be improving their chances of winning the Chase by coming up with a win on Sunday.

Drivers to Watch

Joey Logano (7/1) - Joey Logano was the winner of the Sylvania 300 just a year ago and will be looking to defend that crown on Sunday. Logano isn’t only a good pick this weekend because of that, though. He is entering this race in tremendous form, finishing sixth just a week ago at Chicagoland and racking up six top-10 finishes in a row. He was the winner in two of those six races and will be looking to keep his excellent racing up with another win at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

Denny Hamlin (10/1) - As previously mentioned, Denny Hamlin is coming off of a victory last week and it’s never a bad thing to tail the hot driver. Hamlin is getting some pretty favorable odds at 10-to-1 and he knows what it takes to get the job done, especially at this track. Hamlin was the winner of the Sylvania 300 back in 2012 and should not be slept on heading into this race. His torn ACL did not seem to bother him at all, but that could change at any given time.

Jeff Gordon (20/1) - Jeff Gordon has not won a single race on the year, but he has not been driving poorly. He has still totaled 13 top-10 finishes on the year and has as good a chance as anybody to come away as the winner on Sunday. Gordon won the Sylvania 300 in back-to-back years in 1997 and 1998, and he has been driving well recently also. Gordon finished in just 14th a week ago, but he finished in seventh at the Federated Auto Parts 400 on Sep. 12. He’ll be looking to finally break through with a victory this weekend and he’s a good play at 20-to-1.

Ryan Newman (60/1) - Like Gordon, Ryan Newman has won the Sylvania 300 twice in his career and he is getting absurd 60-to-1 odds this coming weekend. Newman looked great at the myAFibRisk.com 400 just a week ago, finishing in fourth place at the race. He comes into this one after finishing in the top 10 in three of the past five races and is a major bargain at these odds. He is certainly worth placing a unit or two on, as he is due for a victory this season.

Odds to win Sylvania 300

Kevin Harvick 9/2
Brad Keselowski 5/1
Kyle Busch 5/1
Joey Logano 7/1
Matt Kenseth 8/1
Denny Hamlin 10/1
Jimmie Johnson 10/1
Carl Edwards 12/1
Kurt Busch 12/1
Martin Truex Jr 15/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 20/1
Jeff Gordon 20/1
Kyle Larson 35/1
Jamie McMurray 40/1
Austin Dillon 60/1
Clint Bowyer 60/1
Kasey Kahne 60/1
Ryan Newman 60/1
Tony Stewart 100/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 100/1
Aric Almirola 200/1
David Ragan 200/1
Paul Menard 200/1
Greg Biffle 300/1
AJ Allmendinger 500/1
Casey Mears 500/1
Danica Patrick 500/1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr 500/1
Sam Hornish Jr 500/1
Trevor Bayne 500/1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL Betting Notes - Week 14
By David Schwab

Heading into Week 14 of the 2015 CFL regular season, Calgary remains on top in the West Division following last Friday’s 35-23 victory over British Columbia which was just shy of covering against the spread as a 12 ½-point home favorite.

Saturday’s action kicked things off with Hamilton dropping a 25-18 decision to Edmonton as a 5 ½-point home favorite. Later in the day the upset trends for the underdogs continued with Ottawa coming away with a 30-27 victory against Saskatchewan as a three-point underdog on the road. The weekend’s action closed with Montreal avoiding the sweep for the underdogs with a key 35-14 victory against Winnipeg as a nine-point favorite at home on Sunday.

Sunday, Sept. 27

Montreal Alouettes (5-6 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders (1-11 SU, 3-9 ATS)
Point-spread: Montreal -1
Total: 50

Game Overview

Montreal got a boost this past Sunday from the return of quarterback Jonathan Crompton after an extended stay on the injury list dating back to Week 1 of the regular season. His numbers were nothing to brag about with 181 yards passing while completing just 14 of his 27 attempts. Despite getting picked-off two times he also found the end zone with two other throws.

The Roughriders dismal season continues with just one SU win and a 1-3 record ATS in their last four games. The total has gone OVER in four of their last six outings behind a defense that is allowing a CFL-high 30.4 points a game. Offensively, Saskatchewan has not been all that bad with an average of 24.1 points a game.

Betting Trends

Montreal has won 11 of the last 15 meetings SU and it has covered in five of its last six road games against the Roughriders. The total has gone OVER in nine of its last 12 games on the road against Saskatchewan. This will be the first of two meetings this year.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 14 CFL

Montreal (5-6) @ Saskatchewan (1-11)-- One-win Roughriders led last four games at half; only once all year has Saskatchewan trailed at half by more than six points- in last two tilts, they were outscored 35-7 in seocnd half. Montreal won three of last four games; they're 2-3 on road, wirth underdogs covering all five of those games. Home side won last four series games; seven of last ten series games stayed under the total. Under is 9-2 in Alouette games this year; four of last six Roughrider games went over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Buyer Beware!'

The New England Patriots off to a 2-0 start defeating Pittsburgh and most recently Buffalo line up against Jacksonville Jaguars this weekend in Foxboro. Over the past 16 seasons, the Patriots have won 81.2% of their regular/post season home games (108-25 SU) while Jaguars have managed just 16 wins since 2011 (16-50 SU) including a dreadful 6-27 SU in enemy territory. Add to those numbers, Bill Belichick coached Patriots being 6-0 SU vs Jaguars it's not difficult making a case New England remains undefeated.

However, covering the whopping 13.5 points could be a challenge for the 'Brady Bunch'. Patriots are just 5-10 ATS last fifteen overall as double digit favorite, 13-20 ATS as double digit home chalk under Belichick, 7-14 ATS laying 12.5 or more in front of the friendly crowd. On the other side, Jaguars hold their own on the road in this betting range posting a 5-4 ATS mark the past nine when handed 12.5 or more points of offense.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Streaks, Tips, Notes

Philadelphia Eagles at N.Y. Jets September 27, 1:00 EST

Jets defense with four interceptions in two games along with 3 sacks is bad news for Eagles and QB Bradford who has tossed four interceptions and sacked twice in his two starts. Jets opportunistic defense along with an offense thriving behind QB Ryan Fitzpatrick's 423 yards with four TD's look for Jets to remain undefeated while Eagles' nightmare extends to 0-3. Jets 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games have been pegged 2.5 point favorites vs an Eagle squad ridding a 5-14-1 ATS skid in September games.


Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks September 27, 4:25 EST

Season opening losses at Rams and Packers Pete Caroll's troops should right the ship in its own back yard. Seahawks have thrived at CenturyLink Field under Pete Carroll posting an impressive 31-9 SU record with a profitable 27-11-1 mark against the betting line. However, laying 14.5 points could prove costly as Seahawks are a vig-losing 5-5-1 ATS laying double digits in front of the frenzied crowd.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Flamboro Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 1 - Post: 6:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 76 - Purse:$6600 - HORSES & GELDINGS - CLAIMING $7500. - $10000.


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 2 JUST HENRY 5/1


# 5 I WANNA BE GEARED 2/1


# 6 CHARLIES A FLYIN 3/1


Hard not to like JUST HENRY as the top choice for this one. With a great 75 TrackMaster speed fig last time out, will definitely be a factor in this race. The consortium will always toss in a fine animal from the 2 position here at Flamboro Downs, keep in mind for your exotics. I WANNA BE GEARED - Look for Stein and this horse to dominate this time. Very good in the money figure for the trainer/horse twosome. CHARLIES A FLYIN - Could surely better this field of starters given the 78 speed rating earned in his last competition.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at St. John's Racing

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Post: 4:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 70 - Purse:$535 - PREFERRED


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 4 DUSTYLANE WILDBILL 3/1


# 5 INSPIRED ART 2/1


# 3 GO WITH IT 6/1


DUSTYLANE WILDBILL looks very good to best this field of horses. Has formidable TrackMaster speed figs and surely has to be thought of for a play today. The number crunching team gives this contender a respectable chance to win this one, class ratings are tops in the grouping. Could be considered today if only for the formidable speed rating recorded in the most recent race. INSPIRED ART - Deserves a shot given the positive win pct he sports. 89 percent of the time this trainer and horse match end up in the top three. Big players in this event. GO WITH IT - This harness racer may have some hidden form, a win would be a pleasant surprise. Had one of the strongest TrackMaster SRs of the pack in his last race. Must use in your wagers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at ED

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Allowance - 400y on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 89

QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 5 CC TRES 4/1


# 9 HEZA SHARK 3/1


# 2 SPOTMEACORONA 5/1


My selection for this event is CC TRES. She ought to be given a chance given the very strong speed figs. Keep this mare in your exotics as Smith has given backers some double digit profits. Smith should be able to get this mare to break out early in this contest. HEZA SHARK - Earned a decent speed rating last time out. Cervantes has been scorching the last month, winning at a nifty 30 percent clip. SPOTMEACORONA - He has put up very strong numbers under today's conditions and will probably fare well versus this group of horses. A solid 87 avg class fig may give this gelding a distinct class edge against this group of horses.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Hastings Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 68

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 27 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 27 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 2 KATCHIN FIRE 2/1


# 1 MOON RIDE 3/1


# 3 THE TENANT 9/2


KATCHIN FIRE is my choice. Recent figs for the rider - 23 win percent - make this filly stand out in this group. The Equibase Speed Fig of 70 from her last race looks formidable in here. Displays the look of a money-making play, averaging a solid 56 Equibase Speed Figure which is one of the best in this group of horses. MOON RIDE - Her 62 average has this mare with among the top speed figures in this contest. Trainer boasts sharp win numbers at this distance and surface. THE TENANT - Has very good Equibase Class Figures relative to this group - worth a look. She looks decent in this slot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the halfway point.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Belterra Park - Race #7 - Post: 4:57pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $5,200 Class Rating: 64

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#3 FLY'N BAYOU (ML=4/1)
#6 APRIL ONE (ML=15/1)


FLY'N BAYOU - Stanley was aboard this gelding last out and was impressed enough to take the horse right back. Ranked at the very top in earnings per start. Another sign that this horse has class. APRIL ONE - Numerous positive 'vibrations' associated with this thoroughbred and his stable.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 HARD CAT TO TRACK (ML=3/1), #7 RING TAIL CAT (ML=7/2), #8 TOUCH ME QUICK (ML=9/2),

HARD CAT TO TRACK - 3/1 is not enough of a price to take on most any racer that has run poorly in back to back outings. RING TAIL CAT - Tough to keep stabbing at this kind of 'hanger' horse. Multiple chances for this less than sharp equine at Belterra Park and still hasn't received his first victory here. Lower level horses have a difficult time coming back after two difficult stretch drives. TOUCH ME QUICK - This gelding has had countless chances at Belterra Park and still no victories.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #3 FLY'N BAYOU to win if you can get odds of 3/2 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

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Gulfstream Park - Race #4 - Post: 2:54pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 80

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 ABICEB BROTHERS (ML=8/1)
#6 DREAMINGOFLAWRENCE (ML=10/1)
#7 THE SUNDROP KID (ML=7/2)
#1 HAND PICKED (ML=3/1)


ABICEB BROTHERS - Has happened upon a soft spot this time. DREAMINGOFLAWRENCE - This jock and trainer's equines have been producing a beneficial return on investment. This gelding has higher odds on the morning line than the other entrant from the stable of Barboza. Better watch out for this angle. Each one of this gelding's recent finish positions has been progressively better. I like to play this handicapping angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a nice outing within the last 30 days. THE SUNDROP KID - Rider hops back aboard after getting to know the race horse by riding in the last race. That's always a positive sign. Have to make this gelding a serious competitor; he comes off a good race on August 29th. HAND PICKED - I like to see consistency in a racehorse. Look at this colt's PPs. Almost always in the money. Have to make this colt a contender; he comes off a sharp effort on September 7th.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 MANNY BLUE BOY (ML=4/1), #4 ZOOM BOX (ML=6/1), #8 SPEED TRAP (ML=6/1),

MANNY BLUE BOY - This equine doesn't have a tenacious nature. Regularly finishes near the winner. Horse ran a great speed figure last out, but that was in the slop. ZOOM BOX - 6/1 is just too low of a reward to take on most any horse that has run poorly in back to back races. SPEED TRAP - Hard to put your cash on the win end of any thoroughbred that finishes second and third as frequently as this one does.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #5 ABICEB BROTHERS on the win end if we get at least 4/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [5,6,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park

RACE #3 - BELMONT PARK - 2:01 PM EASTERN POST


The Bertram F. Bongard Stakes

7.0 FURLONGS DIRT TWO YEAR OLDS STAKES $150,000.00 PURSE

#4 SUDDEN SURPRISE
#5 CHAMPIONOFTHENILE
#1 GET JETS
#2 MANIPULATED

The Bertram F. Bongard is named for one of the founding directors of the Eastern New York Thoroughbred Breeders' Association. He was also one of the original members and the former treasurer of the New York Thoroughbred Breeders, Inc. Additionally, Mr. Bongard was instrumental in promoting legislation for the New York Breeders' fund. Here in the 32nd running of "The Bongard" ... #4 SUDDEN SURPRISE is the pace profile leader in this field sprinting at today's "specialized distance" of 7.0 furlongs on the dirt, and is undefeated in a two race career, winning both in "POWER RUN FASHION." Jockey John Velazquez was in his irons for those two wins, en route to a +260% return on investment in the process, and Velazquez is back today for his 2nd ride, gunning for a "Hat Trick Win." The morning line favorite is #5 CHAMPIONOFTHENILE who comes off a maiden-breaking win in his last start, just the 2nd race of his young career to date ... I note however, that this win did not qualify for my criteria to be tabbed as a "POWER RUN WIN!"

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Balmoral: Sunday 9/27 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 7 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (42 - 64 / $148.00): VICK VALOR (3rd)

Spot Play: SEEYOUATTHEFINISH (9th)


Race 1

(9) JD CHEESE came up flat last out after being sharp prior. If the 2-year-old gelding races back to what he's capable of he's the horse to beat. (7) PASTOR CLINT has some breaking issues but has flashed some ability. (3) TODGER is capable of improving for proven connections.

Race 2

(3) FRONTIER SARAH gets sent out for a pilot without a single win on the year, however the pacing filly raced deceptively well last out. (7) LUCKY DALI has now looked to be a winner in two straight before being coming up short in both; command a price. (8) I Y Q TOO will offer another big price and can hit the ticket with a good setup.

Race 3

(3) VICK VALOR wasn't as good last start but his effort the start before would beat this field by open lengths. (7) MR STRATA faces older but owns a decent burst of speed. (2) COMING UP TOUGH needed his last start and has room to improve with a good post.

Race 4

(7) FOX VALLEY ELI picks up the top driver in a wide open and evenly matched field. (2) EDDIE EDDIE EDDIE couldn't close off a perfect trip last start but is in against weaker. (5) ALWAYS KENZER might have some of the previous issues worked out coming off a decent qualifier.

Race 5

(7) POWERFUL PRINCESS filly looks to be really talented and should only improve in her second career start. (3) VENGEFUL ran down the top choice last week and is probably the horse to beat if he stays trotting. (8) SURVIVOR DI filly was in way to tough last start and probably needed a start over the track anyway; use underneath.

Race 6

(6) FOX VALLEY BROOKE will be a very short price coming off a win against significantly better. (8) FOXY DANCIN scored an impressive victory last week ripping off cover to nail down the horse on the lead. (3) LOCKPORT LEGEND has been inconsistent from week to week but a good effort puts her on the ticket.

Race 7

(5) FOUR HOUR NAP was the driver's choice of four and has been sharp. (8) FRISKIE FLICKER mare will offer a big price and gets sent out for capable connections. (3) WINGS was no match for the top choice a few back at Maywood but the big track evens out the playing field; threat.

Race 8

(7) SHOWMETHE Z TAM well bred filly could be starting to turn a corner and is just now in racing shape. (10) BIG EXPENSE has been off over a month and could be a tad short. (9) SWISS MOCHA was flying late last out against similar but needs to find a way into the race.

Race 9

(2) SEEYOUATTHEFINISH will offer a much bigger price and had broken equipment last start; threat. (3) RYLEIGH'S LILLY is in career form and can crank it up late with a good setup. (5) JUST BY DESIGN set a lifetime mark last week at this level.

Race 10

(2) MISS PROFITABILITY finds a weak and inconsistent field; threat. (8) LK'S NANCY LEE filly is much better than what she shows on paper but has breaking issues. (7) MANCHESTER MATTIE comes off a nice qualifier in a field full of question marks.