Sunday 9/13/2020 Comps/Bonus Plays,Trends, Betting Info, Etc

[bmd1803]

MLB
ATLANTA BRAVES VS. WASHINGTON NATIONALS PREDICTIONS

PICKS

WAS Nationals Win Money Line
-180

Over 9.0 Game Totals
-110

Money Line Pick
The Washington Nationals’ rotation has taken a hit this season with the injury to Stephen Strasburg and the subpar performance of Patrick Corbin. The one constant, though, has been Max Scherzer, and that’s of little surprise to anyone who has followed the game over the past ten years. Scherzer is 4-2 with a 3.40 ERA over nine starts, and if you take out a start against the Mets where he left with an injury after just one inning, he’s averaging over six innings per start. Even at age 36, his strikeout rate is as high as it’s ever been, with 69 punchouts through 50.1 innings this season. He’s had Freddie Freeman’s number, too, with the latter batting just .179 in his career against his longtime division foe. The Braves turn to rookie Kyle Wright, who had cups of coffee in the Majors each of the last two years before becoming part of their rotation this year. Wright has yet to prove his worth as a Major League starter, with a career 7.86 ERA, and is still searching for his first big-league win. It won’t come Sunday with Scherzer on the mound for Washington, so go with the defending World Series champs.


Game Totals Pick
The Braves’ starting pitching situation is so dire that they have no better option than to continue to turn to Wright, who has been nothing short of awful this year. His 0-4 record and 8.05 ERA only begin to tell the story. He’s walked 18 in his 19.0 innings this year and averages more than two baserunners allowed per inning. The Nationals will enjoy facing him, and while Scherzer has been good this year, he hasn’t been perfect. Opponents are hitting .255 against him this year, which would be the highest average against Scherzer since 2011. Bet the over.

 

[bmd1803]

MLB
BALTIMORE ORIOLES VS. NEW YORK YANKEES PREDICTIONS

PICKS

NY Yankees Win Money Line
-210

Over 9.5 Game Totals
-115

Money Line Pick
J.A. Happ will be 38 years old next month, and while he’s no longer in the prime of his career, he’s still a reliable Major League starting pitcher. After his first three starts of the season, it appeared that Happ’s age had finally caught up to him, but after throwing 7.1 scoreless innings against the Mets two weeks ago and striking out 10 his last time out, it seems like Happ still has something left in the tank. His ERA of 4.31 is by no means a Cy Young-winning number, but it’s actually 60 points lower than his total last year, a season in which Happ won 12 games. The Orioles start John Means, who has struggled mightily after his All-Star rookie season in 2019. Means beat the Mets on Tuesday, lowering his season ERA all the way down to 6.58, and he’s averaging less than four innings per start this year. His low confidence and lack of consistency thus far in 2020 are reasons to believe he won’t be able to string together two solid starts, so go with the Yankees.


Game Totals Pick
Happ and Means faced off on July 30, with the Yankees winning 8-6 and neither pitcher at his best. Orioles slugger Renato Nunez has been looking forward to facing Happ ever since – he’s 11-for-21 with four home runs in his career against Happ. Means gave up five runs in that game and his biggest issue this season has been the long ball – he’s allowed nine home runs in just 26.0 innings. Look for more runs to be scored on Sunday and take the over.

 

[bmd1803]

MLB
BOSTON RED SOX VS. TAMPA BAY RAYS PREDICTIONS

PICKS

TB Rays Win -1.5 Run Line
-110

Over 7.5 Game Totals
-115

Run Line Pick
The Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox will resume a four-game series when they meet again on Saturday in Tampa. Friday’s contest saw the Rays dominate 11-1, which is no real surprise when you consider the overall body of work these two American League East rivals have produced in 2020. Tampa Bay is 29-16 and well atop the division, while Boston is 16-30 and better than only Texas in the entire AL. Adding insult to injury is the fact that the Red Sox have to face right-hander Tyler Glasnow in this one. Glasnow’s numbers aren’t great, but he has rounded into form of late. The 27-year-old has allowed just seven runs in his past four appearances spanning 24.0 innings. His strikeout-to-walk ratio for the season is 66-to-18, so it’s obvious that he is showcasing dominant stuff at times. Boston is 10-21 in its last 31 overall, 14-37 in its last 51 against opponents with winning records, and 2-5 in its last seven at Tampa Bay. The Rays are 23-8 in their last 31 overall, 38-14 in their last 52 at home, and 18-6 in the last 24 meetings between the two teams. Back Tampa Bay with plenty of confidence.


Game Totals Pick
Tampa Bay is countering with right-hander Nathan Eovaldi, who has not been terrible but has by no means been stellar in 2020. He is 2-2 with a 4.98 ERA, and it must be noted that he has been a disaster on the road–with an ERA north of 6.00. As such, it would not be shocking to see the Rays’ bats go crazy again. This total is low because if Glasnow, but it shouldn’t matter how he pitchers. Tampa Bay could take this over by itself. The over is 7-3-1 in Boston’s last 11 overall. It is also 4-1 in the Rays’ last five at home and 7-1-1 in their last nine against right-handed starters. Additionally, the over is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings between the two teams. Take the over.

 

[bmd1803]

MLB
PITTSBURGH PIRATES VS. KANSAS CITY ROYALS PREDICTIONS

PICKS

KC Royals Win Money Line
-140

Over 8.5 Game Totals
-120

Money Line Pick
The Kansas City Royals and Pittsburgh Pirates will wrap up a three-game series when they meet one more time on Sunday in Kansas City. One more win would give the Royals a sweep, and neither–another win or a sweep–would be surprising given how bad Pittsburgh has been this season. The Pirates are 14-29, by far the worst team in the National League and now even worse than Boston; yes, the are the worst in baseball. Some good news for the visitors is that they are sending right-hander Chad Kuhl to the mound and he is sporting a solid 3.38 ERA. Unfortunately for them, Kansas City is countering with right-hander Brad Keller. He is 3-2 with a 2.60 ERA and the Royals have won four of his six starts in 2020. There is no apparent reason why they won’t pick up a fifth victory with Keller toeing the rubber and going up against a weak opponent. Go with Kansas City.


Game Totals Pick
Both pitchers are serviceable, but neither one projects to be dominant on Sunday. Keller has cooled off since a hot start to the year (five runs allowed to in two of his past three starts). Kuhl’s strikeout-to-walk ratio is only 28-to-17 through 32.0 innings, which is cause for a little bit of concern. Kansas City has crossed the plate 22 times in its past three outings, so it should feel good about scoring more than a few in this one. The over is 5-2 in the Pirates’ last seven on the road and 5-2-1 in their last eight against opponents with winning percentages under .400. It is also 3-1-1 in the Royals’ last five interleague games. Lean toward the over.

 

[bmd1803]

MLB
CINCINNATI REDS VS. ST. LOUIS CARDINALS PREDICTIONS

PICKS

CIN Reds Win Money Line
-115

Over 8.5 Game Totals
-110

Money Line Pick
NL Central rivals the Cardinals and Reds will conclude an important series here, more so in terms of St. Louis, who are chasing a playoff spot. The Cardinals have decided to start Carlos Martinez in the series finale, while the Reds will start Tyler Mahle. There is no question that Mahle has been one of the better pitchers in this Cincinnati rotation. Not to the level of Trevor Bauer and Sonny Gray, but good enough to keep his team in the game and provide good outings. Now Mahle’s record does not tell the entire story as he is just 1-2 over his seven appearances this season (six starts). His ERA is 3.89, which is solid, but he is not getting much run support from his lineup. For instance, in his last start, he allowed just three runs to the Cubs over 7.0 innings, but his team failed to score one run. While that is concerning, a repeat of that should not happen here as the Cardinals are starting Martinez. He has certainly not been himself, losing both of his starts this season. The bigger issue is his ERA, which sits at 12.27. To be fair, both of his starts have come against a potent Minnesota offense, but still if the Cardinals are going to make a run, he needs to improve.

I do not love this Cincinnati offense, but there is no way I can back Martinez here, so I am backing the Reds.


Game Totals Pick
With Martinez on the mound, the over is probably the only way to look. He has allowed 10 runs over his 7.1 innings pitched this season. Remember, with Mahle having an ERA of almost 4.00, he is surely going to allow at least a couple of runs here. Mahle has two starts against the Cardinals, allowing six runs over a total of 10.0 innings. Trusting Martinez here is not going to happen, so while I do not love this total, the only way I would lean is to the over.

 

[bmd1803]

MLB
OAKLAND ATHLETICS VS. TEXAS RANGERS PREDICTIONS

PICKS

TEX Rangers Win Money Line
+125

Under 8.0 Game Totals
-110

Money Line Pick
The Athletics split the doubleheader on Saturday, losing game one but absolutely destroying the Rangers in game two. Now they will look to follow up that blowout win to extend their lead in the AL West. To do that though, Frankie Montas is going to have to be much better. The Oakland starter is 3-3 this season, but has an ERA of 5.73. He looked better in his last start, allowing two runs over 5.0 innings against Houston. Though before this start, he allowed 18 runs over 9.2 innings. Montas will also have to out-duel Lance Lynn, who has clearly been the best pitcher for the Rangers. Lynn is 5-2 on the season and has an ERA of just 2.52. After a horrible start against Houston two starts ago, he bounced back by allowing one run over 7.0 innings against the Angels most recently. Note that Lynn has three starts against the Athletics this season, going 1-0 against them with a 2.19 ERA.

I would be worried about the run support Texas can provide, but Lynn is clearly the better pitcher, so I will back him here to continue his great season.


Game Totals Pick
The bounce back by Montas has me looking at the under in this spot because we know how inconsistent the Rangers’ offense has been. They did score five runs in game one of the double-header, but came back and scored just one in the night cap. Lynn is not going to give up much either, considering how good he has been against this Oakland offense. Matt Chapman has also been ruled out for the season due to the fact that he needs surgery, so it really takes some of the power away from the Athletics’ lineup. As a result of Montas looking more like himself in that most recent start, I will back an under as a lean.

 

[bmd1803]

MLB
NEW YORK METS VS. TORONTO BLUE JAYS PREDICTIONS

PICKS

TOR Blue Jays Win Money Line
-145

Over 9.0 Game Totals
-115

Money Line Pick
The Mets and the Blue Jays will conclude their weekend series on Sunday as Toronto looks to continue their push for the postseason. They will turn to Hyun-Jin Ryu in this spot, who has been a nice addition to the Toronto rotation. Ryu is 3-1 on the season with an ERA of 3.19. It is true that he got roughed up last time out, allowing five runs over 5.0 innings to the Yankees. It is also true that in the month of August, Ryu made five starts, allowing a total of three runs over 28.0 innings. One rough start against an offense like the Yankees should not deter Ryu from coming back strong here.

There is also the fact that the Mets will be starting David Peterson. He has a good record of 4-1, but with an ERA of 4.26, he clearly is not having a great season. He especially looked poor his last start, lasting just 2.0 innings while allowing five runs to the Phillies.

Ryu has certainly proven himself more this season and I think he can get back to solid pitching against a below average Mets team. I cannot trust the Mets’ bullpen either, so it would be a lean-to Toronto.


Game Totals Pick
The total is a little less clear because while Ryu had that one struggle start, he has more often than not been very good. Peterson on the other hand, has an ERA of 7.20 over his last three starts, so he continues to give up runs almost every time out. The over is 8-2 over the Mets’ last 10 games and with the state of both bullpens, I think we see both teams have some success. I expect the Blue Jays to score more here, but I also do not see Ryu shutting out New York. As a result, I will back the over as a lean.

 

[bmd1803]

MLB
LOS ANGELES ANGELS VS. COLORADO ROCKIES PREDICTIONS

PICKS

LA Angels Win Money Line
-170

Over 12.5 Game Totals
-110

Money Line Pick
The Angels look to be out of the playoff picture, but will be looking to further knock the Rockies out of their playoff push. We do not exactly have the greatest pitchers taking the mound as Andrew Heaney makes the start for the Angels and Ryan Castellani for the Rockies. Heaney is 3-3 on the season with an ERA of 4.04. A couple starts ago, Heaney shutout the Padres (who had been crushing the ball) over 7.0, but then went and allowed five runs (three earned) to Texas. He really does need to be careful, as this game is in Colorado and the Rockies can at times score quite a few runs.

Castellani on the other side, is not great either. He has a record of 1-2, which I am not too worried about, but an ERA of 5.34 is where things start to get tricky. His last start came against the Dodgers to be fair, but he still allowed four runs over only 4.1 innings. Now the Angels do not have the best offense, but they still have Mike Trout and I think he is going to feast on the Rockies’ pitching.

Heaney has been a little more consistent, and the Angels did well against this suspect Colorado bullpen on Saturday, so I will look towards Los Angeles.


Game Totals Pick
I am going to make a case for the over even with it being so high. First of all, Heaney has been much worse on the road, giving up 15 runs over his 23.2 innings away from Los Angeles. He has an ERA of 5.79 on the road, and with a Colorado lineup that can be potent, I would look for him to allow plenty here as well. Now Castellani has been even worse when pitching in Colorado, surrendering 11 runs over only 14.1 innings. Again, the Angels have Trout, who is always dangerous as well as Anthony Rendon, so I do expect the Angels to do just as much on the offensive end. Based on those splits of these particular pitchers, I am going to back the over, but as a lean at best.

 

[ConleyPicks]

Jerry Shottenkirk: My Late Pick 4 Ticket Sunday at Gulfstream

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September 12, 2020 | By Jerry Shottenkirk
My weekly Pick 4 Tour returns to Gulfstream Park on Sunday and we’re faced with a particularly challenging Late Pick 4, led by a solid allowance optional claiming race at a mile around the turn.
My suggested $60 ticket features five horses chosen in the ninth race, which is the third in the sequence. The seventh race also necessitated a spread as four were deemed worthy of inclusion on the Pick 4 card.
Here’s a look at this week’s suggested ticket:

Race 7 (3:06 p.m. ET, maidens)
BIG VENEZUELA has a nice drill after a series of works and is ready for his debut. DOO WOP DON pressed for a half-mile and tired late in his debut. Eligible to improve. CARSON CITY KID had the lead in each of his two races and can mix it up early. MASTER OF DISASTER has worked well for his debut and is bred to scoot.

Race 8 (3:40 p.m. ET, claiming)
STARSHIP TAXI is going to get past this non-winners of two condition at some point, and today looks like a prime spot for him. Always seems to be the hunt and he just needs to finish the deal. YES FOR LESS rallied boldly for second at this level two races back, fizzled for a bigger price on turf and is now back to a bottom sprint. Take seriously. ACASEADAY showed speed at a higher level in Tampa. Comes back off a six-month vacation and can be a big threat for this claiming tag.

Race 9 (4:14 p.m. ET, allowance optional claiming)
INDIMAAJ moves over to the main track after a couple of attempts at this level. A stalking run could be the ticket for this one. CREA’S BKLYN LAW made a solid move from off the pace and just missed last out and had won two straight going into that one. Doesn’t have many bad ones on his form. FIFTH TITLE beat Crea’s Brkyn Law two back and was second to tough Glory of Florida last out. At the top of his game. LIKE YOU has been in good form since March and has the talent to mix it up throughout. Has been in fast races and his efforts should transfer nicely into this spot. YOUCANTCATCHCURLIN moves into stronger company after an easy win. Has taken two of his last three and can run into contention.
Race 10 (4:48 p.m. ET, maiden claiming)
ANIMA D’OR has been impressive in the late going as he transferred his game to the turf. Gets his first opportunity going two turns, which should work out well. UNCAGE THE CAT had a lead in a similar situation last out and stuck around for second. Capable of dictating the terms of this one.

Here’s the suggested ticket for Saratoga’s Late Pick 4 on Sunday:
7) #3 Big Venezuela, #4 Doo Wop Don, #7 Carson City Kid, #9 Master of Disaster.
8) #3 Starship Taxi, #4 Yes for Less, #8 Acaseaday.
9) #1 Indimaaj, #2 Crea’s Bklyn Law, #3 Fifth Title, #5 Like You, #6 Youcantcatchcurlin.
10) #2 Anima d’Or, #6 Uncage the Cat.
50-cent Late Pick 4: 3-4-7-9 with 3-4-8 with 1-2-3-5-6 with 2-6 ($60).

 

[ConleyPicks]

Al Cimaglia: Hawthorne Racecourse Late Pick 4 Analysis

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September 13, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Hawthorne Racecourse has a 15-race card set to begin at 7:10 CST. The Late Pick 4 starts in Race 12, it has a $25,000 guaranteed pool and it will be my focus.

The driver with the hottest hands on Saturday was Casey Leonard with 3 pictures. The leading conditioners, with 2 wins each, were Hector Herrera and Steve Searle.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 12

3-Misscanfly (4-1)-Broke in last at 2-1 but regular pilot returns tonight. Hard to tell when this mare is race ready but is a threat with a top effort.
7-Big Man Forever (3-1)-Searle trainee has been competitive in most starts but has been burned a lot of money. Was an odds-on chalk in last and has a chance to make amends at a better price.
9-Gogo Riches (5-1)-Got on the engine and didn't look back in breaking maiden on 8/29. Team Wilfong entry steps-up and will be tested with this post draw. Can be in the hunt if minds manners and the post makes for a better price.

Race 13

4-Fox Valley Lizzy (12-1)-Makes 4th start on Lasix and Bates sticks after an even effort in last. Looking for a price and Lizzy should get a cozy trip from here.
9-Locked On It (3-1)-Program chalk gets a new pilot as Stewart chooses #5, but that may help chances. My guess is Warren leaves and could get sucked around and use one big move down the lane.
10-Peace Time (7/2)-Had a nice effort from the 10-hole at this class on 8/30 to come 2nd. Wilfong left off the gate and landed in the 2-hole. Maybe he looks to come off cover this time?

Race 14

3-Gamblinforalivin (5-1)-Broke and had a bumpy trip in last start versus better. Gets a new set of hands in Bates and should like the company. Can get a good trip from here and take a picture at a square price.
6-Babyface (4-1)-Won last at Nfld on 2nd try with Lasix. Hasn't won in Stickney (0-12) but has cashed a 2nd place check in last 2 starts here. Could be set for a big try and does fit with this crew.
7-Beat The Devil (5-1)-Makes 3rd consecutive start here and was driven more aggressively in last. This 3-year-old might be getting better and has a shot to finally post a win in 2020.

Race 15

1-Look Kimbo (5/2)-Bet hard and has failed as a big chalk in last 2. This guy finds ways to lose and the drive is not always a help but has battled better. No excuses allowed here but is 0-12 and that merits caution.
4-Spee Dee Shark (4-1)-Dropped and popped in 1st start on Lasix. Steps up but was facing better and this a suspect group. Best to respect as the Shark has banked more cash over the past 2 years than anyone in this field.

0.50 Late Pick 4

3,7,9/4,9,10/3,6,7/1,4
Total Bet=$27

 

[ConleyPicks]

Your free brandXsports.com winner
for September 13, 2020 is the Tampa Bay Rays on the ML

Your free brandXsports.com winner
for September 12, 2020 was the Baltimore Orioles +170...a loser (Should have used the RL!) ​