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NFL Week 1 Opening Line Report: Cowboys seeing sharp action of re-opening as home dogs

The Tony Romo injury caused books to reopen the Giants as 1.5-point road faves from 4-point dogs.

After months of anticipation, the NFL finally returns with real games as the regular season kicks off Thursday night. At some sportsbooks, the lines on Week 1 have been up for several weeks or more, with several significant shifts in those numbers.

We talk about four key season openers with Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology in Las Vegas, and Peter Childs, risk manager for offshore site Sportsbook.ag.

Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos – Open: Broncos -3; Move: Broncos -1.5, Panthers -1, Panthers -3

Right from the get-go, the 2016 season gets a Super Bowl rematch. The Broncos went in as 5-point underdogs in last season’s NFL title tilt and completely shut down Cam Newtown and Co. on the way to a 24-10 victory.

That marked Peyton Manning’s last game, and Brock Osweiler was expected to provide a steady transition following Manning’s retirement. But that narrative went out the window when Osweiler left for greener pastures with the Houston Texans, leading to a 180-degree swing in the line at CG’s books, including The Cosmopolitan, the M and the Venetian.

“Due to Denver’s Super Bowl win, the line opened at Broncos -3, with the assumption that Osweiler was going to start,” Simbal said. “Once the game opened (in mid-April), bets began coming in on the Panthers, and the line moved their way. Once Osweiler left, it shifted all the way to the Panthers.”

Denver went 15-4 SU and a more modest 10-8-1 ATS in 2015, while the Panthers won their first 14 games last year and finished 17-2 SU, 13-6 ATS.

Sportsbook.ag’s opening line was much tighter, at Broncos -1 as Childs gave Denver modest home-field respect while knowing quarterback could be an issue. But as with CG, that respect didn’t last for long.

“We quickly took on Panthers money, and we knew quite early that the public was going to be squarely behind the Panthers in this revenge game,” Childs said. “We quickly went to Panthers -1 and kept ticking up until just last week, when we eventually got to Panthers -3.5, our current number.”

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys – Open: Cowboys -4; Move: Giants -1.5, Giants -1

This NFC East rivalry gets renewed right away with a 4:25 p.m. Eastern start on Sunday. Unfortunately, the game lost a lot of its luster and the Cowboys lost their status as home favorites when quarterback Tony Romo went down with a back injury in Week 3 of the preseason.

Romo is expected to miss at least the first six weeks of the regular season for Dallas, which went 4-12 SU and 4-11-1 ATS last year without Romo almost the entire way. He broke his collarbone in Week 2, came back at Thanksgiving and reinjured it, then missed the rest of the season.

The Giants didn’t fare much better in 2015, going 6-10 SU, 8-7-1 ATS.

“Before the Romo injury, the Cowboys were a solid 4-point favorite. But once we learned he was out, we immediately closed the game and assessed the situation,” Childs said. “While everyone is in love with Romo’s backup, Dak Prescott, he’s still a rookie and hasn’t taken a regular-season NFL snap, so we have major reservations about his ability until proven otherwise.

“With a major downgrade at quarterback, we dropped the line a full 5 points, making the Giants a small 1.5-point favorite. We’ve written good action at that price, but we booked some sharp action on the Cowboys at +1.5 and moved it down a half-point to Giants -1.”

CG experienced similar movement, though the game is now rated a toss-up.

“In Week 1 last year, the same game opened Cowboys -7,” Simbal said of a contest Dallas won 27-26 at home. “After some of the Giants’ offseason moves, and the move toward the Giants in futures, the opener here was Cowboys -4.5. After the Romo injury, it went to a pick.”

New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals – Open: Cardinals -1; Move: Cardinals -4, Cardinals -6

It’s another game more about who’s not playing than who is, with Tom Brady not under center for the Patriots while he serves a four-game suspension over DeflateGate. Once that decision came down in late April, the line took off in favor of the host Cardinals.

“These are both very even and popular teams, so Arizona (initially) got the slight nod of being a 1-point favorite at home,” Simbal said. “Once the Brady suspension broke, it went all the way up to 6.”
New England was 13-5 SU, 8-8-2 ATS last year, bowing out in the AFC Championship Game, a 20-18 loss to Denver as a 3-point road favorite. Arizona (14-4 SU, 9-9 ATS in 2015) reached the NFC Championship Game but got torched at Carolina 49-15 as a 3-point underdog.

Childs said Sportsbook – which opened the Pats at -1 – took the game down even before the Brady news, based on chatter that the courts were going to uphold the suspension. After the decision came down, the game went back up with Arizona at -5.

“We saw real nice, two-way action,” Childs said. “More times than not, going from Brady to Jimmy Garoppolo would require a much bigger line move, in my opinion. But when considering Bill Belichick has had all summer to game-plan, we didn’t want to give more than 6 points to arguably the best coach in the NFL.

“That said, sharp money as well as some public money has pushed this line to 6. I believe that money represents Garoppolo’s struggles in the preseason. He flat-out didn’t look all that good.”

Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Redskins – Open: Steelers -3; Move: none

Both these teams made the playoffs last year, and Pittsburgh is among the shorter favorites this season to win the Super Bowl. Unlike the aforementioned three season openers, though, the line in this contest has been steady.

“The Steelers are about a touchdown better on a neutral field, so Washington got 3-4 points for being at home,” Simbal said. “The opener here of -3 was fine since there has been little movement.”

The Steelers went 11-7 SU, 9-6-3 ATS last season, bowing out in the divisional playoffs with a 23-16 loss as 7-point ‘dogs at Denver. The Redskins won a flagging NFC East with a 9-7 SU and ATS mark, then lost to Green Bay 35-18 as 2-point home chalk in the wild-card round.

Sportsbook bounced back and forth between its opener of 3 and 3.5 a couple times, with the three-game suspension of Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell weighing into a shift back to 3. But Pittsburgh continues to get the bulk of the action.

“The Bell suspension really hasn’t stopped support for the Steelers,” Childs said. “With more and more money coming in on the road favorite, we went back to 3.5 about a month ago and haven’t moved off that number.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

Week 1

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta– Bucs’ new DC is Mike Smith, the former Falcons’ head coach. Last three years, Falcons are 5-17 vs spread in games with spread of 3 or less points; they’re 4-11 in last 15 games as home favorite. Last two years, Bucs are 2-9 in games with spread of 3 or less points- they swept Falcons 23-20/23-19 LY; they’ve split last four visits to Georgia Dome. Tampa Bay is 3-7 in last 10 road openers, but 4-1 vs spread as a dpg in road openers. Under is 16-7 in their last 23 road openers. Atlanta won, covered its last eight home openers; they’re 14-3 vs spread in last 17 home openers. Falcons covered last eight times they opened season at home; three of its last four home openers went under the total.

Minnesota @ Tennessee– Hill gets start at QB for Minnesota, but Bradford will be starter soon. Hill was 3-5 for ’14 Rams, his only starts since ’10. Last four years, Minnesota is 20-7 vs spread in games that have a spread of 3 or less points; Vikings open on road for 8th time in last nine years; they open a new domed stadium next week. Last three years, Tennessee is 2-8-2 vs spread in games that have spread of 3 or less points; since ’11, they’re 6-14-2 as home dogs. Minnesota won five of last six series games, with last four wins over Tennessee by 10+ points; they split two visits to Nashville, with last one in ’08. Vikings are 3-5 in last eight season openers, 4-11 in last 15 road openers; under is 9-3 in their last 12 road openers. Titans are 7-3 last 10 times they opened season at home; four of their last five season openers stayed under total.

Cleveland @ Philadelphia– Rookie Wentz gets nod at QB for Eagles, despite hardly playing in preseason (ribs). Browns started season 1-0 once in last 17 years; they’re 2-8-1 vs spread in last 11 openers, 4-7-2 in last 13 road openers. Cleveland is on their sixth coach in nine years; they’re 0-4 vs Eagles, losing its last visit to Philly 30-10 in ’08. Eagles are on third coach in four years; since ’10, they’re 11-19 vs spread in non-divisional home games. With rookie Wentz red-shirting this year, Bradford gets nod at QB ; Iggles are 2-8 vs spread in last 10 home openers; 0-7 when favored by less than eight points. Browns are 13-15-2 as road dogs last four years. Under is 6-2-1 in Eagles’ last nine home openers, 8-5 in Cleveland’s last 13 season openers.

Cincinnati @ NJ Jets– Fitzpatrick didn’t sign until an hour before training camp started, but had full camp; Jets are 7-2 vs spread as home underdogs last three years. Bengals lost last nine games vs Jets in NY/NJ area, with last series win here in 1981. Jets are 9-2 in last 11 series games, but lost 49-9 at Cincinnati in 2013 in last series game. Gang Green won last five home openers (three by 5 or less points); they’re 7-1 in last eight season openers. Bengals split last six season openers, which were all on the road. Since 2011, Cincinnati is 11-6-1 as road favorite- they are 17-5-3 vs spread in last 25 non-divisional road tilts. Over is 6-1 in Cincy’s last seven road openers, 3-5 in Jets’ last eight openers at home.

Oakland @ New Orleans– Former Oakland coach Allen is Saints’ new DC. Since ’08, Saints is 24-10-3 as non-divisional home favorite. Last four years, Raiders are 4-15 vs spread in games with spread of 3 or less points, but they’re 9-4 in last 13 games as non-divisional road dogs. Saints won last three series games by average of 34-15– Raiders are 2-3-1 vs Saints on Bourbon Street. Oakland lost 12 of last 13 openers; since ’07, they’re 6-1-1 vs spread as an underdog in road openers. Over last eight years, Saints are 14-8-2 as favorite of 3 or less points; they lost four of last five openers; they’re 13-5 in last 18 home openers (5-2-1 vs spread when favored in HO’s). Over is 11-5-1 in last 17 Oakland road openers, 3-9 in last 12 Superdome openers.

Chargers @ Chiefs– San Diego didn’t score TD vs Chiefs LY, losing 33-3/10-3; they lost last two visits to Arrowhead, 19-7/10-3, as KC won last four series games. Chargers are 18-8-1 as a road underdog last four years, 7-3 in last 10 AFC West road games. Chiefs are 3-7 in last 10 season openers, 5-11 in last 16 home openers; they’re 2-9-1 vs spread as a fave in home openers. San Diego covered its last four openers; they’re 8-5-1 vs spread as an underdog in road openers. Since ’08, Kansas City is 13-23 as a home favorite (10-12 under Reid). Under is 19-4-2 in Chiefs’ last 25 home openers, 3-1 in Bolts’ last four road openers. Chiefs covered only eight of last 23 AFC West home games.

Buffalo @ Baltimore– Last four years, Ravens are 5-10-2 vs spread as favorite of 3 or less points. Home team won last five series games; Bills lost last three visits to Baltimore, by 14-12-3 points. Buffalo covered nine of last 11 openers; they’re 9-5 vs spread in last 14 road openers, winning three of last five SU. Ravens lost last two home openers after 9-0 streak prior to that- they’re 13-6 vs spread as a favorite in home openers. Rex Ryan became a HC because of success Raven defense had while he was there. Buffalo is 14-10-1 in last 25 games with spread of 3 or less points- they’re 6-16-2 vs spread in last 24 non-divisional road tilts. Over is 4-1 in Bills’ last five road openers, 5-2 in Baltimore’s last seven home openers.

Chicago @ Houston– Osweiler is 5-2 as an NFL starter; he makes his Houston debut here. Texans are 7-3 as home favorites in two years under O’Brien. Fox is 10-6-1 as a road dog last five years; Bears were 5-2-1 as road underdog LY. Chicago is opening on road for first time since ’09; they’re 3-5-1 vs spread in last nine openers, 10-8 in last 18 road openers. Houston won six of its last seven openers, five of last six home openers- they’re 4-4 as favorites in HOs. Texans won all three series games, by 19-7-7 points; Bears lost 31-24 in only visit here, in 2008. Under is 10-2 in Chicago’s last 12 road openers, 7-4 in Houston’s last 11 home openers. Bears covered seven of last ten non-conference road games.

Green Bay @ Jacksonville– Packers lost three of last four season openers, three of last four road openers (1-4 vs spread in last five); their last five openers went over, as did eight of last ten road openers. Jaguars are 2-7 in last nine home openers, losing last four by an average of 30-9. Jags are 4-6 as an underdog in HOs. Green Bay is 7-4 as road favorite last two years, since 2011, Pack is 9-16 vs spread in non-conference road games. Jags are 5-12-1 as a home underdog under Bradley; they’re 7-18 in last 25 non-divisional home games. Under is 8-3-1 in Jaguars’ last 12 home openers. Packers are 3-2 in series; three of last four meetings were decided by 7 or less points. Pack won two of three visits here, with last trip here in ’08.

Miami @ Seattle– Biggest spread of Week 1. Since 2008, Miami is 25-14-1 vs spread in its non-divisional road games- they’re 4-7 as road underdogs last two years, Seahawks won, covered 12 of last 13 home openers- they’re 10-1 as faves in HOs. Dolphins are 3-9 in last 12 road openers, 1-6-1 vs spread as an underdog. Miami is 3-0 in last three season openers; they were underdog in two of three. Long road trip to start season; Fish won five of last six series meetings, with four of six decided by 4 or less points. Dolphins won three of last four visits here, with last one in ’04. Under is 17-5 in Miami’s last 22 road openers, including last seven in row; under is 12-2-1 in Seattle’s last 15 HOs. Last six years, Seattle is 22-11 vs the spread as a home favorite.

NJ Giants @ Dallas– Rookie QB Prescott played well in preseason; how will he do when things speed up in regular season? Cowboys won five of last six series games, winning last three here by 5-1-10 points; average total in last seven series games, 53.7. Dallas covered one of last eight home openers; since ’93, they’re 7-13 as favorite in HOs. Six of its last eight home openers were decided by 4 or less points. Giants started 0-1 last five years; they lost five of last six road openers- since ’96, they’re 8-10 as an underdog in road openers. Over is 14-2 in Giants’ last 16 road openers, 6-3 in Cowboys’ last nine home openers. Since ’07, Giants are 9-5 as a non-divisional road dog; over is 11-5 in their road gmes last two years. Big Blue fired their Hall of Fame head coach, kept two coordinators; how does that make them better?

Detroit @ Indianapolis– Lion coach Caldwell led Colts to AFC title in 2009, losing Super Bowl to Saints; Detroit is 4-7 as road dog last two years. Indy drafted four offensive linemen last spring; that is where their problems lied LY, keeping QB Luck upright. Indy is 21-26-1 as home favorite the last eight years, 12-17 in non-division games. Lions are 3-12 SU in last 15 road openers (4-8 vs spread as a dog); they allowed 27.3 ppg in last four AOs. Indy is 1-5 as a favotite in home openers, going 2-3 SU in last five. Colts won last four series games, three by 10+ points; Lions lost 30-18/31-21 in two visits here, last of which was in 2008. Over is 7-3-1 in Detroit’s last 11 road openers, 1-4 in Colts’ last five openers.

New England @ Arizona– Garoppolo starting at QB for Patriots puts this into uncharted territory; Patriots are 11-5-1 in last 17 tries as a road underdog, 8-4-1 outside their division. Arizona is 10-7-1 as home favorite under Arians; they’re 10-4-1 in last 15 non-divisional home games. Pats won 11 of last 12 season openers, winning four of last five road openers, with three of last four decided by 3 or less points. Arizona won last six home openers, covering four of last five- they won five of last six series openers, but lost five of last six games vs Patriots, winning 20-18 in last meeting in Foxboro, in ’12. NE won last three visits here, by 2-24-11 points. Under is 3-1 in Patriots’ last four AO’s, Cardinals’ last four HOs.

Pittsburgh @ Washington– Steelers lost last five road openers (0-4-1 vs spread), all by 7+ points; they lost four of last five season openers (0-4-1 vs spread), but won last five games vs Washington, last four all by 9+ points. This is only third visit here for Steelers since ’68; they split last two. Pitt is 11-20-1 as road favorite last eight years, 6-14 in non-divisional games. Under is 10-5 in their road games last two years. Redskins are 5-4 as home dog under Gruden; since ’08, they’re 12-24-2 vs spread in non-divisional home games. Skins lost last three season openers, three of last four home openers. Under is 7-2 in Steelers’ last nine road openers, 1-4 in Washington’s last five home openers.

Los Angeles @ San Francisco– Rams are favored despite being 1-13 in last 14 road openers, with only win 19-17 (-4) at Tampa Bay couple years ago. LA is 1-3 as road fave in Fisher era. Keenum is 5-2 in last seven starts. Since 2000, Rams are 3-13 vs spread in Week 1. 49ers are 7-3-1 as home underdog since ’09, 1-3 in last four home openers, losing in Week 1 last three years. Niners are 4-2-1 in last seven series games; Rams are 1-6-1 in last eight visits here, with three of last four visits decided by 3 or less points; it is much shorter road trip now than it was in those eight trips. LA outrushed 49ers 330-146 in two meetings LY; wraps will get taken off Gurley here after he hardly played in preseason. Under is 7-3 in Rams’ last 10 road openers, 9-5-1 in 49ers’ last 15 HOs, 18-6 in 49ers home games the last three years.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL line watch: Can Patriots top total without Brady under center?

The Patriots will keep the offense simple around backup QB Jimmy Garappolo when they face the Cardinals' stout defense in Week 1.

Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Oakland Raiders at New Orleans Saints (-1)

One-point lines aren’t all that common, but this one hasn’t budged since early-bird oddsmakers weighed in when the schedule was first announced last spring. So, any late movement is unlikely.

This looks like the Raiders’ last in the Bay Area, and they would love to make the playoffs and give their move to Las Vegas a huge tailwind. They did get some bad news when they learned that DE Mario Edwards will be lost for at least six weeks after being injured in last week’s exhibition game. Ouch.

The Saints weren’t that impressive in the preseason (losing all four), but that doesn’t mean much. New Orleans hopes to take advantage of a soft start to the season with the first four against 2016 non-playoff teams (Raiders, Falcons, Giants, Chargers). Starting 1-3 or 0-4 would be devastating.

Spread to wait on

Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos (+3)

Books are loath to move off field goal lines, but the public is betting hard on the Panthers (72 percent on Carolina) and Broncos bettors should check back often to see if a +3.5 window opens up, even for a short amount of time.

Denver will be trying to defend its Super Bowl title without a top-flight quarterback, and that’s always a tricky thing to accomplish. But that defense should keep the Broncos in most games.

No one seriously thinks the Panthers can repeat last year’s 15-1 record, but they should be able to call the shots in the NFC South and return to the playoffs.

Total to watch

New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals (47.5)

This one opened at 51, but fell when Tom Brady’s suspension appeal was rejected. New England will try to survive until Week 5 (when Brady is back) with a possible Top-3 defense and a no-frills offense built around tight ends Rob Gronkowski and (newcomer) Martellus Bennett.

The usual suspects for the Pats’ offense are back – uncoverable Julian Edelman and earth-moving running back LeGarrette Blount. The Pats will keep things simple early on until they have a feel for QB placeholder Jimmy Garoppolo.

The Cardinals no doubt caught a break facing a Brady-less New England squad, and will be doing everything they can to intimidate Garoppolo with a solid defense of their own. It could be hard for both teams to get into the end zone in this one.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 1

Jimmy Garappolo could be in for a rough welcome in his NFL debut, as he goes up against two of the top DB's in the business in the Cards' Tyrann Mathieu and Patrick Peterson.

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 44.5)

Chargers' awful run D vs. Chiefs’ sensational rush attack

It’s a passing league, they say. The game is now all about quarterbacks and wideouts, or tight ends, or running backs who can catch the ball. Run-first approach? That’s so 2012. But apparently, nobody told the Kansas City Chiefs, who will run out the same philosophy they’ve used to decent success for years - smash the opposing defensive line into tiny pieces with a potent running attack.

Here’s why that should work to perfection this weekend: the Chargers are bad at defending the run. Downright miserable, in fact. Last season, San Diego allowed a whopping 4.8 yards per carry (second-worst in the NFL) and 17 touchdowns on the ground (fourth-most in the league). They were particularly susceptible to the big play, allowing 21 runs of 20 or more yards. And they forced just seven fumbles.

Contrast that with a Chiefs run attack that ranked third in the NFL in yards per carry (4.7), sixth in rushing yards per game (127.8), tied for first in rushing scores (19) and first in “rushing for a first down” percentage (26.6) and the Chargers are going to be in for a long day. That’s especially true if KC pounds the ball up the middle; the Chiefs had just seven negative runs and 19 carries of 10+ yards on center rushes in 2015, ranking among the league leaders in both categories.

Daily fantasy watch: RB Spencer Ware


New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (PK, 46)

Giants’ up-tempo offense vs. Cowboys’ depleted defense

Occasionally, you can trust the previous year’s results sufficiently to make a judgment call the following season. And sometimes, you can take last year’s data and toss it in the nearest trash can. Bettors leaning toward the Giants shouldn’t just consider the potential dumpster fire facing the Cowboys and rookie quarterback Dak Prescott - they should also acknowledge that the Dallas defense is a wet paper towel.

“But Monty!” you cry out. “The Cowboys OWNED Eli Manning last year!” And you would be right - but this Dallas defense is far different from the one that made Manning look like an insurance salesman masquerading as a quarterback. No Randy Gregory. No DeMarcus Lawrence. No Rolando McClain. This Cowboys defense was expected to be subpar even with a full complement. Now? It’s going to have major issues keeping the Giants off the scoreboard.

Of particular concern is the Dallas pass rush, which generated just 31 sacks last season - tied for 25th league-wide - and forced only eight INTs, also ranking near the basement. And again, that was with better personnel than the Cowboys will boast in Week 1. Manning will have all the time in the world to set up, and with electrifying receivers like Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard to throw to, it could be a very, very big day for Peyton’s little brother.

Daily fantasy watch: QB Eli Manning


Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks (-10.5, 44)

Dolphins’ bad starting position vs. Seahawks’ LOS dominance

Football is a game of field position; if you consistently start your drives 75-80 yards from the end zone, you’re going to have a difficult time scoring points. The Miami Dolphins know this well - they had one of the worst average drive start positions in the league last season, and will open the 2016 campaign against a Seahawks team that held foes to the worst starting position in the NFL in 2015.

Per Football Outsiders, Miami ranked 27th in average starting point last season (25.54). That was compounded by terrible showings in average plays per drive (5.37, 30th), average time of possession per drive (2:22, 29th) and Drive Success Rate, which measures how often a team achieves a first down or a touchdown on a specific drive (.661, 29th). The result: A pitiful 1.54 points per drive, good for 28th in the NFL.

The Seahawks’ defense ain’t what she used to be, but it’s still one of the most formidable units in the league. Teams facing Seattle had an average starting position of 23.61, a tenth of a yard better than second-place New England. Forcing teams to start that deep means plenty of forgiveness with regard to drive length; even though teams managed 5.81 plays per drive against the Seahawks - good for 15th - their combined DSR of .658 was sixth-lowest. Look for a lot of fruitless drives by the Dolphins this Sunday.

Daily fantasy watch: Seahawks D/ST


New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals (-6, 47.5)

Patriots’ receiving corps vs. Cardinals’ 1-2 DB punch

Bettors have plenty of reasons to expect Arizona to prevail by more than a touchdown, but we’re not here to address all of them. The focus here is on the major disadvantage New England’s primary wide receivers will face against what might be the most daunting defensive back combo in the entire league. Welcome to the NFL, Jimmy Garoppolo! Remember, there’s no shame in starting your career 0-1.

Let’s start with the backfield, since everyone knows Bill Belichick loves to get his receiving backs involved. Arizona employs a blitz-heavy approach that negates the impact of those receiving backs, since they’re forced to pass block more. Teams threw to their RBs just over 16 percent of the time against Arizona last season, second-lowest in the NFL. Sorry, James White, but Sunday probably isn’t your day.

As for the rest of the non-Gronkowski targets, you might as well forget about them. Only six defenses saw more passes against thrown to WR1s than the Cardinals, thanks to stalwart cornerback Patrick Peterson. He grades at an 87.9 on ProFootballFocus, making him one of the top all-round cornerbacks in the game. And let’s not forget Tyrann Mathieu, a Swiss Army knife of a safety whose 94.1 PFF grade is the best in the league at his position. He’ll likely match up with Julian Edelman, which means a really long day for Julian Edelman.

Daily fantasy watch: Cardinals D/ST

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 1

Sunday, September 11

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TAMPA BAY (6 - 10) at ATLANTA (8 - 8) - 9/11/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ATLANTA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 2-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 2-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (11 - 6) at TENNESSEE (3 - 13) - 9/11/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 45-25 ATS (+17.5 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 7-23 ATS (-18.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 7-23 ATS (-18.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CLEVELAND (3 - 13) at PHILADELPHIA (7 - 9) - 9/11/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CINCINNATI (12 - 5) at NY JETS (10 - 6) - 9/11/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OAKLAND (7 - 9) at NEW ORLEANS (7 - 9) - 9/11/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 39-76 ATS (-44.6 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN DIEGO (4 - 12) at KANSAS CITY (12 - 6) - 9/11/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 37-21 ATS (+13.9 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 4-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BUFFALO (8 - 8) at BALTIMORE (5 - 11) - 9/11/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHICAGO (6 - 10) at HOUSTON (9 - 8) - 9/11/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GREEN BAY (11 - 7) at JACKSONVILLE (5 - 11) - 9/11/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 172-122 ATS (+37.8 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (6 - 10) at SEATTLE (11 - 7) - 9/11/2016, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY GIANTS (6 - 10) at DALLAS (4 - 12) - 9/11/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-1 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DETROIT (7 - 9) at INDIANAPOLIS (8 - 8) - 9/11/2016, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ENGLAND (13 - 5) at ARIZONA (14 - 4) - 9/11/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 42-24 ATS (+15.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 86-49 ATS (+32.1 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, September 12

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (11 - 7) at WASHINGTON (9 - 8) - 9/12/2016, 7:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 79-108 ATS (-39.8 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 79-108 ATS (-39.8 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games when playing on Monday night since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 79-108 ATS (-39.8 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA RAMS (7 - 9) at SAN FRANCISCO (5 - 11) - 9/12/2016, 10:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 171-214 ATS (-64.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 171-214 ATS (-64.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 79-109 ATS (-40.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 123-169 ATS (-62.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 55-83 ATS (-36.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS is 31-51 ATS (-25.1 Units) in September games since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 30-10 ATS (+19.0 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-2 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-2 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

Week 1

Trend Report

Sunday, September 11

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. NEW ORLEANS
Oakland is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
New Orleans is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games at home

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. ATLANTA
Tampa Bay is 6-18 SU in its last 24 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Atlanta is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Houston is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games

1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. KANSAS CITY
San Diego is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
San Diego is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. TENNESSEE
Minnesota is 7-17-1 SU in its last 25 games ,on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Tennessee is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
GREEN BAY vs. JACKSONVILLE
Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Green Bay's last 15 games
Jacksonville is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Jacksonville is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. BALTIMORE
Buffalo is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing Buffalo

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. PHILADELPHIA
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. NY JETS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing NY Jets
Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
NY Jets are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games at home
NY Jets are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games when playing Cincinnati

4:05 PM
MIAMI vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games
Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Seattle is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games at home
Seattle is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Miami

4:25 PM
NY GIANTS vs. DALLAS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Giants last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Giants last 5 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games

4:25 PM
DETROIT vs. INDIANAPOLIS
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Detroit's last 18 games on the road
Detroit is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Indianapolis's last 23 games
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit

8:30 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. ARIZONA
New England is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
New England is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Arizona is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing New England
Arizona is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New England


Monday, September 12

7:10 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. WASHINGTON
Pittsburgh is 2-3-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Pittsburgh's last 11 games on the road
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh

10:20 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Los Angeles is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Los Angeles's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Francisco's last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing at home against Los Angeles

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 1

Sunday, September 11

Green Bay @ Jacksonville

Game 469-470
September 11, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
137.550
Jacksonville
123.760
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 14
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 4 1/2
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-4 1/2); Under

Miami @ Seattle

Game 471-472
September 11, 2016 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
131.766
Seattle
138.698
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 7
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 10 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+10 1/2); Over

NY Giants @ Dallas

Game 473-474
September 11, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
126.935
Dallas
130.887
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 4
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
Pick
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
Under

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta

Game 453-454
September 11, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
127.877
Atlanta
126.458
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 1 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 3
48
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+3); Under

Detroit @ Indianapolis

Game 475-476
September 11, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
131.492
Indianapolis
128.295
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 3
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 4 1/2
51
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+4 1/2); Under

Minnesota @ Tennessee

Game 455-456
September 11, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
138.482
Tennessee
121.368
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 17
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 1
41
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-1); Over

New England @ Arizona

Game 477-478
September 11, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
130.223
Arizona
139.301
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 9
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 6
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(-6); Under

Cleveland @ Philadelphia

Game 457-458
September 11, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
126.703
Philadelphia
127.665
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 1
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 4
41 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+4); Under

Cincinnati @ NY Jets

Game 459-460
September 11, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
137.726
NY Jets
132.817
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 5
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 2 1/2
42
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(-2 1/2); Under

Oakland @ New Orleans

Game 461-462
September 11, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
131.627
New Orleans
129.309
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 2 1/2
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 1
51
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(+1); Over

San Diego @ Kansas City

Game 463-464
September 11, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Diego
131.044
Kansas City
134.112
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 3
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 7
45
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(+7); Under

Buffalo @ Baltimore

Game 465-466
September 11, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
130.829
Baltimore
136.717
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 6
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 3
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(-3); Over

Chicago @ Houston

Game 467-468
September 11, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
130.735
Houston
133.614
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 3
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 6
44
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+6); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 1

Sun – Sept. 11

Tampa Bay at Atlanta, 1:00 PM ET
Tampa Bay: 16-6 ATS in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49
Atlanta: 1-8 ATS as a favorite

Minnesota at Tennessee, 1:00 PM ET
Minnesota: 14-3 ATS in all lined games
Tennessee: 7-20 ATS as an underdog

Cleveland at Philadelphia, 1:00 PM ET
Cleveland: 3-1 ATS in the first two weeks of the season
Philadelphia: 3-4 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points

Cincinnati at NY Jets, 1:00 PM ET
Cincinnati: 7-0 ATS in the first month of the season
New York: 6-7 ATS in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points

Oakland at New Orleans, 1:00 PM ET
Oakland: 5-17 ATS in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5
New Orleans: 51-45 ATS in non-conference games

San Diego at Kansas City, 1:00 PM ET
San Diego: 16-28 ATS in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points
Kansas City: 7-5 ATS versus division opponents

Buffalo at Baltimore, 1:00 PM ET
Buffalo: 30-16 ATS in the first two weeks of the season
Baltimore: 0-6 ATS as a favorite

Chicago at Houston, 1:00 PM ET
Chicago: 43-51 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less
Houston: 11-3 ATS as a favorite

Green Bay at Jacksonville, 1:00 PM ET
Green Bay: 16-6 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points
Jacksonville: 1-7 ATS in non-conference games

Miami at Seattle, 4:05 PM ET
Miami: 0-7 ATS in games played on turf
Seattle: 30-15 ATS in home games in non-conference games

NY Giants at Dallas, 4:25 PM ET
New York: 51-38 ATS in the first month of the season
Dallas: 1-8 ATS in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points

Detroit at Indianapolis, 4:25 PM ET
Detroit: 1-3 ATS in the first two weeks of the season
Indianapolis: 5-3 ATS in non-conference games

New England at Arizona, 8:30 PM ET
New England: 2-5 ATS in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points
Arizona: 5-1 ATS in September games

 

[superbeets]

Spanish La Liga TODAY 11:00

Sp. Gijon

v

Leganes

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS2		5/4	11/5	12/5	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT SP. GIJON	RECENT FORM
ALHWADHWHWAD​ Most recent​	2 - 1	HLAWHWAWAWHD​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Gijon’s only defeat in their last eight La Liga games came away to Barcelona

EXPERT VERDICT: Sporting Gijon avoided relegation thanks to a stirring late-season run and they have started the 2016-17 campaign in a similar vein, taking four points from their two games. However, promoted Leganes have matched that tally, holding Atletico Madrid to a goalless draw last time out. Both sides have stout defensive units and a tight tussle looks likely.

RECOMMENDATION: No goalscorer
1

 

[superbeets]

Italian Serie A TODAY 11:30

Bologna

v

Cagliari

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BT3		23/20	11/5	5/2	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT BOLOGNA	RECENT FORM
ADHLADHWHWAL​ Most recent​	1 - 0 3 - 0 1 - 0 2 - 2	AWHWAWHWALHD​ Most recent​

EXPERT VERDICT: Serie B winners Cagliari have lift-off following their 2-2 draw against Roma before the break. The Sardinians had been staring down the barrel of a second straight loss at 2-0 down but fought back well. Veteran ex-Milan marksman Marco Borriello has bagged two in two and they have nothing to fear in Bologna where the goals have dried up.

RECOMMENDATION: Cagliari
2

 

[superbeets]

German Bundesliga TODAY 14:30

W Bremen

v

Augsburg

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BT2		11/8	5/2	19/10	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT W BREMEN	RECENT FORM
ALHWADHWALAL​ Most recent​	1 - 2 3 - 2 1 - 0 0 - 1	AWHDADHLAWHL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Both teams have scored in eight of the ten meetings between the sides

EXPERT VERDICT: Dumped out of the cup and thrashed 6-0 at Bayern, it’s arguable Bremen’s season can only get better. Serge Gnabry’s arrival should add some much-needed pace up front though it’s the other end which is of concern. There are always goals when these two sides meet - Augsburg won 2-1 at the Weser Stadion in April - and there should be again.

RECOMMENDATION: Both teams to score
1

 

[superbeets]

Spanish La Liga TODAY 15:00

Valencia

v

Real Betis

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS2		4/6	3	4	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT VALENCIA	RECENT FORM
ADHLALHLHLAL​ Most recent​	0 - 0 5 - 0 3 - 0 4 - 0	ALHLADHWALHD​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Valencia are unbeaten in their last 15 meetings with Betis at the Mestalla

EXPERT VERDICT: Valencia still await their first point of the season but they can take advantage of Betis’ dismal away record and claim a victory. Gus Poyet’s Betis have won just one of their last 12 La Liga matches on the road and given they were humiliated 6-2 by Barcelona in their opener, it’s difficult to see past a home win.

RECOMMENDATION: Valencia
2

 

[superbeets]

Premier League TODAY 16:00

Swansea

v

Chelsea

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS1		11/2	16/5	4/7	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT SWANSEA	RECENT FORM
AWHDAWHLAWAL​ Most recent​	1 - 0 0 - 5 0 - 1 0 - 0	ADHDHWAWHWHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Swansea’s first three league games have featured only one first-half goal

EXPERT VERDICT: A couple of late winning goals have helped Antonio Conte make a good start to life at Stamford Bridge and Chelsea could overpower their hosts late on. Swansea let in two late goals in their home defeat to Hull and may struggle to frustrate Chelsea for a full 90 minutes.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw-Chelsea double result
1


REFEREE: Andre Marriner STADIUM:

 

[superbeets]

French Ligue 1 TODAY 16:00

Rennes

v

Caen

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BT3		Evs	23/10	3	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT RENNES	RECENT FORM
ALALHLALHWAD​ Most recent​	1 - 1 1 - 4 3 - 2 1 - 1	HDAWHWHWALHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Rennes were the only Ligue 1 side to go through last season without a 0-0 draw

EXPERT VERDICT: Rennes faded badly last season with six straight defeats to sign off but are usually reliable at home. Their only home game this season produced a 2-0 win over Nancy, while Caen’s lone road trip thus far ended in a 2-0 defeat at Lyon. These look two evenly-matched sides who shared the spoils in this fixture last year and may do so again.

RECOMMENDATION: 1-1 draw
1

 

[superbeets]

[h=3]Swansea v Chelsea (1600BST)[/h]

Opta facts

• Swansea's 1-0 win in this exact fixture last season was their first league victory and clean sheet in 12 games against the Blues, since a 3-0 win in April 1981.
• Chelsea have scored more goals against Swansea than any other Premier League side has (21).
• Since beating Chelsea 1-0 in April, the Swans have kept just one clean sheet in eight Premier League games.
• Diego Costa has scored more Premier League goals against Swansea than any other opponent he's faced (5).
• Costa has either scored or assisted in each of his last five Premier League games for the Blues.
• Leroy Fer has scored in two of his three Premier League games this season, having failed to score in any of the 11 he played in last season for the Swans.
• In each of their title winning seasons, Chelsea won their opening four games of the Premier League campaign (2004/05, 2005/06, 2009/10 and 2014/15).
• No player has created more chances than Wayne Routledge so far this season (10).
• Swansea are yet to lose three successive league games under Francesco Guidolin's management.
• Antonio Conte could win his four opening Premier League games - something that only three previous Chelsea managers have done (Jose Mourinho, Guus Hiddink and Carlo Ancelotti).

 

[eaglez1111]

I've followed this forum for a while, and appreciate everyone who posts picks/info. I was just curious if anyone has info on this teaser king guy Howard Robins with sports picks? Any info good/bad? I've never taken notice if those pics are posted in here, or if they can be? Any info/opinions are appreciated. Thx

​

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

EPL Notebook - Week 4
By Chris David

Week 3 Recap

The Premier League was off last weekend due to World Cup qualifiers and locals in the United Kingdom watched England capture a 1-0 victory over Slovakia with a late goal.

After Matchday 3 concluded on Sunday Aug. 28, we found out that nobody will end the season with zero points. We also saw Manchester City, Chelsea and Manchester United stay unbeaten and remain level at the top with nine points.

The three heavyweights all won by two-plus goals and they’ve now combined for 22 goals on the season while only allowing a combined six between them.

The Citizens (3/2) remain the top choice to win the title with the Red Devils (5/2) and Blues (5/1) right behind them.

Overall, home teams went 4-2 with four draws in Week 3 and three of the ties ended 1-1. The ‘under’ went 6-4.

Game of the Week – Manchester City at Manchester United (Saturday, NBCSN, 7:30 a.m. ET)

Jose Mourinho and Pep Guardiola will square off in their first Manchester derby on Saturday as the Manchester clubs battle from Old Trafford. As mentioned above, both clubs enter this game with identical 3-0 records.

Despite the perfect marks, United is favored (+130) over City (+225) and the draw is +230 while the total is 2 ½ goals and shaded to the 'under' (-130).

Man City won’t have striker Sergio Aguero heading into their first test of the season after he was banned for throwing an elbow in the last match. The Argentine product has played well versus United, scoring seven career goals against them and four in the last five games at Old Trafford. Expected to fill the void up front for City are Iheanacho or Nolito.

United was tied in the EPL for allowing the least amount of goals last season (35) and they’ve only conceded one this season with goal keeper David de Gea on point. Meanwhile, City has exiled goalie Joe Hart to Torino and still hasn’t managed to post a clean sheet yet this season while the former keeper had 15 last season.

Historically, United have won 20 of the 38 league meetings (20-7-11) and is 2-1-0 the last three encounters. The two head coaches squared off nine times during their previous coaching stops in La Liga with Barcelona and Real Madrid and Pep went 5-2-2 vs. Jose in “El Clasico.”

Trends to Watch

West Bromwich Albion at Bournemouth: Low total (2) for this matchup and it’s understandable with both teams posting 2-1 ‘under’ starts to the season. West Brom and Bournemouth have both scored and allowed a pair of goals in three games this season.

Southampton at Arsenal: The home squad has gone 4-2-0 in the last six meetings between the pair. Southampton has been a strong ‘under’ (3-0) lean so far while Arsenal has watched the ‘over’ go 2-1.

Hull City at Burnley: The last seven encounters between the pair have seen the loser get shutout and six of the outcomes ended with 1-0 decisions. This is only one of two games with totals listed at 2 goals in Week 4.

Crystal Palace at Middlesbrough: These teams haven’t met in over three years and newly promoted Middlesbrough (+125) is favored at home. The Boro (1-2-0) haven’t dropped points this season but the competition hasn’t been tough and Palace enters this game with the worst offense (1 goal) in the EPL.

Tottenham at Stoke City: The visitor won both matchups in this series last season and the last four games have seen 3-plus goals scored in all of them. Stoke City (+350) has been installed as the largest home ‘dog in Week 4 and it’s not surprising since the club has been outscored 4-1 this season at bet365 Stadium.

Watford at West Ham United: The Hammers and Hornets split last season’s series with the home team winning both games. Tough to handicap this matchup considering Watford has faced top clubs in Arsenal (1-3) and Chelsea (1-2) on the road while United fell to Man City (1-3) and Chelsea (1-2) as a visitor. Both teams have scored at least one goal in each of their first three games.

Leicester City at Liverpool: The home team went 2-0 in the two league matchups last season and the ‘under’ cashed easily in both games (2-0, 1-0). It’s quite surprising to Leicester (+425) listed as such a heavy ‘dog, especially against a Liverpool team that has allowed six goals this season. However, the new Anfield will be open on Saturday and that might give the home squad a boost.

Chelsea at Swansea City (Sunday): The Blues have gone 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings against Swansea City. The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 the last four. Chelsea listed as a road favorite against a Swansea team that has scored two goals in three league games, both coming in the 80-plus minutes.

Everton at Sunderland (Monday): The home team swept the season series last season as the two teams combined for an eye-opening 11 goals (3-0, 6-2) in the encounters.

Champions & Europa League

Six teams will represent the Premier League in the UEFA Champions and Europa league. Fatigue is always a factor with the extra games and listed below are the clubs double-dipping next week.

Tuesday, Sept. 13

Arsenal has been installed as a very heavy underdog (+370) in its opener at Paris Saint-Germain.

Manchester City (-200) is laying a decent price at home versus German club Borussia Monchengladbach.

Wednesday – Sept. 14

Tottenham is listed as a home favorite (-155) versus AS Monaco.

Leicester City (+160) is expected to be in for a test at Club Brugge (+185) in Belgium.

Thursday, Sept. 15

Manchester United travels to the Netherlands to face Feyenoord as a road favorite (-125).

Southampton (-200) hosts Sparta Prague as a home favorite.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Sky (15-15) at Sun (11-19)

Date: September 11, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

With four games left in the regular season, the Chicago Sky are venturing into crisis mode. They've lost two straight games and reigning MVP Elena Delle Donne has an injured thumb and missed Friday's loss to the Indiana Fever.

The Sky, with or without Delle Donne, will try to right the ship Sunday when they visit the also-desperate Connecticut Sun at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Conn.

Delle Donne injured her right thumb last week in a loss to the Washington Mystics. The WNBA's leading scorer told the Chicago Tribune on Thursday that she's "day-to-day." Without her, the Sky are in danger of missing the playoffs.

Chicago (15-15) closes the regular season against the first-place Minnesota Lynx, the playoff-bound New York Liberty and the Seattle Storm, who are in playoff position as well. Plus, Connecticut beat the Sky 94-89 in their most recent meeting on July 22.

Delle Donne scored 20 points in the loss. Connecticut guard Alex Bentley had 21 points and forward Jonquel Jones provided a spark off the bench with her first career double-double with 20 points and 10 rebounds. The win came in the middle of the Sun's late-season turnaround.

After a bad start to the season, the Sun (11-19) made a late playoff push in mid-July and August, winning five of six at one point to get in the thick of the postseason hunt. But they've dropped two straight games since and enter Sunday's game two games behind the Phoenix Mercury for the final playoff berth.

The top eight teams, regardless of conference, qualify for the postseason.

The Sun are coming off a hard-fought 89-82 loss to the Liberty on Friday. Chiney Ogwumike had 20 points and nine rebounds, continuing her impressive season. Ogwumike leads the team in rebounding (6.3 rebounds per game) and is second in scoring (12.3 points).

If Delle Donne can't go, guard Cappie Pondexter will be looked upon to take on some more of the coming load. Pondexter is averaging 12.2 points per game.

Chicago defeated Connecticut 93-70 in the season opener for both teams. It was the beginning of a 2-10 start for the Sun.