NFL Week 1
Jets @ Bills — Buffalo led NFL in rushing yardage last two years; will that change under the new coach? Bills had won five in row over the Jets before getting swept 37-31/30-10 in two meetings LY. Jets lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 19-23-5 points. Jets open on road for first time since ’09; they’re 5-1 in last six season openers, 15-5 vs spread in last 20 road openers. Buffalo is 7-3 vs spread in last ten home openers- three of last four stayed under. Last five years, Bills are 9-6 vs spread when hosting AFC East foes; since 2012, they’re 12-10 as a home favorite. Over is 12-4 in their home games the last two years. Jets are 2-4-2 as road underdogs under Bowles. Under is 10-6 in Jet road games the last two seasons.
Falcons @ Bears — Last 14 years, Super Bowl loser is 5-9 in its first game the next year (2-12 vs spread). Atlanta also has two new coordinators this year; they’re 3-2 in last five season openers, 4-3 as a road favorite under Quinn. Under is 15-9 in their road games the last three years. Chicago is 6-11-1 vs spread as a home underdog since ’12 (4-1 LY). First meeting in three years between these two; Falcons lost last six games in Windy City- their last win here was in 1983 (also in Week 1). Atlanta is 3-2 in its last five road openers. Under is 10-3 in their last 13 AO’s. Chicago lost its last three home openers, by 3-8-15 points; over is 4-1-1 in their last six. Bears were -20 in turnovers LY, are 14-34 SU the last three years.
Jaguars @ Texans — Houston won last six games in this division rivalry; they swept Jaguars LY, 24-21/21-20. Jax lost five of last six games in Houston, losing last three by 1-24-6 points. Texans are 12-4-1 as a home favorite under O’Brien; they’re also starting 4th different QB on Opening Day in his four years as Texans’ coach. Since ’09, Jaguars are 24-29-1 as a road underdog; over is 11-5 in their road games the last two years. Jax lost its last nine road openers (2-7 vs spread)- they stared 0-1 the last five years. Houston won six of last seven season openers, are 5-2 vs spread in last seven home openers. Under is 8-4 in their last 12 home openers, 10-6 in their home games the last two seasons.
Eagles @ Redskins — Washington won last five series games, sweeping Iggles 27-20/27-22 LY. Philly lost last three visits here, by 3-3-7 points. Last two years, Redskins are 12-4 vs spread in games where spread was 3 or less points- they’re 4-8 as a home favorite under Gruden. Eagles are 8-9 vs spread as a road underdog the last three years. Redskins Philly won seven of last eight road openers- they covered last five tries as an underdog in AO’s. Over is 5-2-2 in their last nine AO’s. Washington lost four of its last five home openers; five of last six went over total. Last two years, Eagles are 7-10 vs spread in games where spread was 3 or less points. Over is 22-10 in Philly road games the last four years.
Cardinals @ Lions — Redbirds are 10-6 vs spread on artificial turf, 10-7 as road underdogs under Arians. Detroit is 11-4-3 as home favorites under Caldwell. Arizona won its last seven games with Lions; five of those seven were in desert. Redbirds won 31-24/42-17 in last two visits here; their last loss to Lions was here in 2005. Arizona had covered eight road openers in row before losing Week 3 AO in Buffalo LY- three of their last four went over. Cards won five of last seven season openers. Detroit won five of last six season openers, lost last two home openers, scoring 12-15 points. Over is 5-2 in their last seven HO’s. Over is 13-3 in Cardinal road games last two years. Over is 23-17 in their home games the last five years.
Raiders @ Titans — Silver/Black was 7-1 LY in games with spread of 3 or less points; they’re 12-4 vs spread on road under Del Rio. Oakland won in Music City last two years, 24-21/17-10; road team won last three series games. Last four years, Titans are 9-20-3 vs spread at home; since 2011, they’re 13-22-3 vs spread in games with spread of 3 or less. Oakland lost four of last five season openers; they’re 7-2-1 vs spread in last ten road openers— over is 12-5-1 in their last 18. Tennessee won three of last four season openers, but lost its last three home openers. Titans are 5-13-2 vs spread in last 20 non-divisional home tilts. Under is 7-3 in their last ten season openers. Oakland is 15-5 vs spread in its last 20 non-divisional road games.
Buccaneers @ Dolphins — Since 2007, Miami is 11-31-1 vs spread as a home favorite; dogs are 26-12-2 vs spread in their last 40 home games. Series is 5-5; home side is 7-3. Bucs lost three of four visits here, with one win in 2000. Three of last four meetings were decided by 3 or less points. Tampa Bay won its last two road openers, covered five of last seven; over is 6-3 in their last nine. Miami won four of its last five home openers- their last eight home openers went over the total. Last three years, Tampa Bay is 6-11 vs number in games with spread of 3 or less points. Since 2013, under is 17-14-1 in Bucs’ road games; over is 15-9 in Miami’s last 24 home tilts. Since ’12, Tampa is 15-10 vs spread in non-divisional road games.
Ravens @ Bengals — Cincy is opening at home for first time since 2009; they went 4-3 in Week 1 road games since then, are 5-2 (4-2-1 vs spread) in last seven home openers. Under is 7-2 in their last nine HO’s. Bengals are 15-9-1 as home favorites since 2013, but their OL was ravaged in free agency last winter- they’re 7-5 vs spread in AFC North home games last four years. Since 2012, Baltimore is 10-13-1 as a road underdog; they’re 4-1-1 vs spread in last six divisional road games. Ravens lost four of last six road openers; they’re 7-4 vs spread in last 11 AO’s (over is 7-2-1 in last ten). These teams finished LY here against each other. Bengals won six of last seven meetings, winning last five played here, by 6-17-3-8-17 points.
Steelers @ Browns — Since returning to NFL in 1999, Cleveland has been 1-0 once, 0-1 17 times, with only Week 1 win 20-3 over the Ravens in ’04. Browns are 4-14 vs spread in HO’s, 3-2 in last five- they’re 2-12 vs spread in Week 1 HO’s. Steelers are 8-1 in last nine series games; they won three of last four visits here, with wins by 16-16-17 points. Pittsburgh lost five of last six road openers, four of last six season openers. Under is 7-3 in their last ten AO’s. Browns were 1-7 as home underdogs this year, are 13-21-1 as home dogs since 2010; they’re 1-8 in NFC North home games the last three years. Pittsburgh is 10-6 as a road favorite last two years, 4-2 in division games. Under is 12-4 in their last 16 road games.
Colts @ Rams — Luck is out here; Tolzien (0-2-1 as starter) gets the start. Goff had very little chance as rookie LY because Rams’ OL sucked; now we see if new regime has improved that unit. Rams were 1-4-1 as home dogs LY, are 22-30-2 in that role, since 2007. Over is 20-15 in their last 35 home games. Colts 1-3 as road favorites the last two years; over is 17-7 in their last 24 road games. Indy lost six of last seven season openers, is 2-5 vs spread in last seven road openers. Under is 6-3 in their last nine season openers. Rams lost last 10 season openers, but won four of last five home openers; this is their first home opener in SoCal since 1994. First game for 31-year old Rams’ HC McVay; Rams hammered Colts 38-8 (+8 ) in last meeting, in 2013. Indy beat McVay’s Redskins 49-27 in ’14.
Seahawks @ Packers — Packers beat Seahawks last two years, 27-17/38-10; Seahawks lost last seven visits here- their last win at Lambeau was in ’99. Seattle lost nine of last ten road openers; under is 9-5 in their last 14. Home team won nine of their last ten season openers. Green Bay won nine of last ten home openers (8-2 vs spread); five of their last six went over total- their last six Week 1 games went over. Last three years, Packers are 14-7-2 as home favorites; they’re 8-12 in last 20 games where spread was 3 or less points. Under is 11-5 in their last 16 home games. Since ’11, Seahawks are 11-5-5 vs spread as a road underdog; they’re 8-5-2 in last 15 games where spread was 3 or less points.
Panthers @ 49ers — Niners are on 4th head coach in four years. How healthy is Newton’s shoulder? Panthers gave up 81 points LY in two games vs Shanahan’s Atlanta offense- 49ers’ personnel is obviously inferior. SF is 7-7 as home dog the last two years; under is 22-10 in their last 32 home games. Carolina is 6-12-1 as a road favorite under Rivera. In franchise history, Carolina is 1-6 vs spread as a favorite in road openers; Panthers lost six of last eight road openers- over is 6-3 in their last nine. Carolina lost six of last eight season openers. 49ers won five of last six home openers, covered seven of last eight, with last three staying under total. Carolina (-12.5) hammered 49ers 46-27 in Week 2 LY, their 5th win in last six games vs SF.
Giants @ Cowboys — Rivals meet in Week 1 for 4th time in last five years- this is 5th year in row Giants open on road. Big Blue won last three meetings with Cowboys; they swept Dallas 21-20/10-7 LY. Giants lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 1-10-5 points. Since ’08, Cowboys are vs spread 20-36 as home favorites (4-2 LY); over is 9-6-1 in their last 16 home games. Last 3 years, Giants are 5-8-2 as road underdogs; under was 7-1 in their road games LY, McAdoo’s first as HC. Big Blue lost five of last seven road openers, with last two decided by a point apiece. Over is 11-2 in Giants’ last 14 road openers. Dallas won four of its last six home openers, but is 1-7-1 vs spread in last nine.
Jets @ Bills — Buffalo led NFL in rushing yardage last two years; will that change under the new coach? Bills had won five in row over the Jets before getting swept 37-31/30-10 in two meetings LY. Jets lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 19-23-5 points. Jets open on road for first time since ’09; they’re 5-1 in last six season openers, 15-5 vs spread in last 20 road openers. Buffalo is 7-3 vs spread in last ten home openers- three of last four stayed under. Last five years, Bills are 9-6 vs spread when hosting AFC East foes; since 2012, they’re 12-10 as a home favorite. Over is 12-4 in their home games the last two years. Jets are 2-4-2 as road underdogs under Bowles. Under is 10-6 in Jet road games the last two seasons.
Falcons @ Bears — Last 14 years, Super Bowl loser is 5-9 in its first game the next year (2-12 vs spread). Atlanta also has two new coordinators this year; they’re 3-2 in last five season openers, 4-3 as a road favorite under Quinn. Under is 15-9 in their road games the last three years. Chicago is 6-11-1 vs spread as a home underdog since ’12 (4-1 LY). First meeting in three years between these two; Falcons lost last six games in Windy City- their last win here was in 1983 (also in Week 1). Atlanta is 3-2 in its last five road openers. Under is 10-3 in their last 13 AO’s. Chicago lost its last three home openers, by 3-8-15 points; over is 4-1-1 in their last six. Bears were -20 in turnovers LY, are 14-34 SU the last three years.
Jaguars @ Texans — Houston won last six games in this division rivalry; they swept Jaguars LY, 24-21/21-20. Jax lost five of last six games in Houston, losing last three by 1-24-6 points. Texans are 12-4-1 as a home favorite under O’Brien; they’re also starting 4th different QB on Opening Day in his four years as Texans’ coach. Since ’09, Jaguars are 24-29-1 as a road underdog; over is 11-5 in their road games the last two years. Jax lost its last nine road openers (2-7 vs spread)- they stared 0-1 the last five years. Houston won six of last seven season openers, are 5-2 vs spread in last seven home openers. Under is 8-4 in their last 12 home openers, 10-6 in their home games the last two seasons.
Eagles @ Redskins — Washington won last five series games, sweeping Iggles 27-20/27-22 LY. Philly lost last three visits here, by 3-3-7 points. Last two years, Redskins are 12-4 vs spread in games where spread was 3 or less points- they’re 4-8 as a home favorite under Gruden. Eagles are 8-9 vs spread as a road underdog the last three years. Redskins Philly won seven of last eight road openers- they covered last five tries as an underdog in AO’s. Over is 5-2-2 in their last nine AO’s. Washington lost four of its last five home openers; five of last six went over total. Last two years, Eagles are 7-10 vs spread in games where spread was 3 or less points. Over is 22-10 in Philly road games the last four years.
Cardinals @ Lions — Redbirds are 10-6 vs spread on artificial turf, 10-7 as road underdogs under Arians. Detroit is 11-4-3 as home favorites under Caldwell. Arizona won its last seven games with Lions; five of those seven were in desert. Redbirds won 31-24/42-17 in last two visits here; their last loss to Lions was here in 2005. Arizona had covered eight road openers in row before losing Week 3 AO in Buffalo LY- three of their last four went over. Cards won five of last seven season openers. Detroit won five of last six season openers, lost last two home openers, scoring 12-15 points. Over is 5-2 in their last seven HO’s. Over is 13-3 in Cardinal road games last two years. Over is 23-17 in their home games the last five years.
Raiders @ Titans — Silver/Black was 7-1 LY in games with spread of 3 or less points; they’re 12-4 vs spread on road under Del Rio. Oakland won in Music City last two years, 24-21/17-10; road team won last three series games. Last four years, Titans are 9-20-3 vs spread at home; since 2011, they’re 13-22-3 vs spread in games with spread of 3 or less. Oakland lost four of last five season openers; they’re 7-2-1 vs spread in last ten road openers— over is 12-5-1 in their last 18. Tennessee won three of last four season openers, but lost its last three home openers. Titans are 5-13-2 vs spread in last 20 non-divisional home tilts. Under is 7-3 in their last ten season openers. Oakland is 15-5 vs spread in its last 20 non-divisional road games.
Buccaneers @ Dolphins — Since 2007, Miami is 11-31-1 vs spread as a home favorite; dogs are 26-12-2 vs spread in their last 40 home games. Series is 5-5; home side is 7-3. Bucs lost three of four visits here, with one win in 2000. Three of last four meetings were decided by 3 or less points. Tampa Bay won its last two road openers, covered five of last seven; over is 6-3 in their last nine. Miami won four of its last five home openers- their last eight home openers went over the total. Last three years, Tampa Bay is 6-11 vs number in games with spread of 3 or less points. Since 2013, under is 17-14-1 in Bucs’ road games; over is 15-9 in Miami’s last 24 home tilts. Since ’12, Tampa is 15-10 vs spread in non-divisional road games.
Ravens @ Bengals — Cincy is opening at home for first time since 2009; they went 4-3 in Week 1 road games since then, are 5-2 (4-2-1 vs spread) in last seven home openers. Under is 7-2 in their last nine HO’s. Bengals are 15-9-1 as home favorites since 2013, but their OL was ravaged in free agency last winter- they’re 7-5 vs spread in AFC North home games last four years. Since 2012, Baltimore is 10-13-1 as a road underdog; they’re 4-1-1 vs spread in last six divisional road games. Ravens lost four of last six road openers; they’re 7-4 vs spread in last 11 AO’s (over is 7-2-1 in last ten). These teams finished LY here against each other. Bengals won six of last seven meetings, winning last five played here, by 6-17-3-8-17 points.
Steelers @ Browns — Since returning to NFL in 1999, Cleveland has been 1-0 once, 0-1 17 times, with only Week 1 win 20-3 over the Ravens in ’04. Browns are 4-14 vs spread in HO’s, 3-2 in last five- they’re 2-12 vs spread in Week 1 HO’s. Steelers are 8-1 in last nine series games; they won three of last four visits here, with wins by 16-16-17 points. Pittsburgh lost five of last six road openers, four of last six season openers. Under is 7-3 in their last ten AO’s. Browns were 1-7 as home underdogs this year, are 13-21-1 as home dogs since 2010; they’re 1-8 in NFC North home games the last three years. Pittsburgh is 10-6 as a road favorite last two years, 4-2 in division games. Under is 12-4 in their last 16 road games.
Colts @ Rams — Luck is out here; Tolzien (0-2-1 as starter) gets the start. Goff had very little chance as rookie LY because Rams’ OL sucked; now we see if new regime has improved that unit. Rams were 1-4-1 as home dogs LY, are 22-30-2 in that role, since 2007. Over is 20-15 in their last 35 home games. Colts 1-3 as road favorites the last two years; over is 17-7 in their last 24 road games. Indy lost six of last seven season openers, is 2-5 vs spread in last seven road openers. Under is 6-3 in their last nine season openers. Rams lost last 10 season openers, but won four of last five home openers; this is their first home opener in SoCal since 1994. First game for 31-year old Rams’ HC McVay; Rams hammered Colts 38-8 (+8 ) in last meeting, in 2013. Indy beat McVay’s Redskins 49-27 in ’14.
Seahawks @ Packers — Packers beat Seahawks last two years, 27-17/38-10; Seahawks lost last seven visits here- their last win at Lambeau was in ’99. Seattle lost nine of last ten road openers; under is 9-5 in their last 14. Home team won nine of their last ten season openers. Green Bay won nine of last ten home openers (8-2 vs spread); five of their last six went over total- their last six Week 1 games went over. Last three years, Packers are 14-7-2 as home favorites; they’re 8-12 in last 20 games where spread was 3 or less points. Under is 11-5 in their last 16 home games. Since ’11, Seahawks are 11-5-5 vs spread as a road underdog; they’re 8-5-2 in last 15 games where spread was 3 or less points.
Panthers @ 49ers — Niners are on 4th head coach in four years. How healthy is Newton’s shoulder? Panthers gave up 81 points LY in two games vs Shanahan’s Atlanta offense- 49ers’ personnel is obviously inferior. SF is 7-7 as home dog the last two years; under is 22-10 in their last 32 home games. Carolina is 6-12-1 as a road favorite under Rivera. In franchise history, Carolina is 1-6 vs spread as a favorite in road openers; Panthers lost six of last eight road openers- over is 6-3 in their last nine. Carolina lost six of last eight season openers. 49ers won five of last six home openers, covered seven of last eight, with last three staying under total. Carolina (-12.5) hammered 49ers 46-27 in Week 2 LY, their 5th win in last six games vs SF.
Giants @ Cowboys — Rivals meet in Week 1 for 4th time in last five years- this is 5th year in row Giants open on road. Big Blue won last three meetings with Cowboys; they swept Dallas 21-20/10-7 LY. Giants lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 1-10-5 points. Since ’08, Cowboys are vs spread 20-36 as home favorites (4-2 LY); over is 9-6-1 in their last 16 home games. Last 3 years, Giants are 5-8-2 as road underdogs; under was 7-1 in their road games LY, McAdoo’s first as HC. Big Blue lost five of last seven road openers, with last two decided by a point apiece. Over is 11-2 in Giants’ last 14 road openers. Dallas won four of its last six home openers, but is 1-7-1 vs spread in last nine.
Home underdogs, Super Bowl hangovers and other NFL Week 1 trends bettors need to know
Week 1 of the NFL season is a moment sports bettors would like to freeze in time. It’s a week where the books and the bettors are able to go mano a mano wagering on lines based solely on personal preseason projections without any in-season results clouding those opinions.
Sportsbooks will play the first week of the season with more caution then they do once the game results begin to pour in. Those Week 1 lines will not be as sharp as the lines later in September.
That’s what makes three spreads particularly interesting on the NFL Week 1 betting board. The Cleveland Browns, Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers are interesting. All three teams are at home in the first week of the season and catching six or more points. Over the last five seasons (2011 to 2016) there have only be four home teams getting six or more points in Week 1.
“Last year, the bad teams were really bad and the good teams like the Patriots, Cowboys and Falcons crushed us week in and week out,” says Sportsbook.ag oddsmaker Peter Childs.
The Browns, Bears and 49ers went a combined 6-42 straight up and 15-32-1 against the spread last season. All three teams have different starting quarterbacks than a year ago but bettors are skeptical on whether any one of the three teams has improved.
“The public is on the chalk in all three games,” Chris Andrews, an oddsmaker at the South Point sportsbook in Las Vegas, told us. “Some wiseguy play on the Browns but no sharp money yet on the Bears or 49ers.”
One bet the public should be on is the Under. Jason Logan tweeted last November about the Under being on a run in games where the home team was getting 6.5 or more points.
The trend continued the rest of the 2016 season pushing the mark now to 5-21 Over/Under since 2015 and 23-44 since 2013.
Here’s a quick look at each of these games and where the Bookmakers project these lines landing just before kickoff.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (+9, 47)
The Steelers are 8-1 straight up and 6-2-1 against the spread in their last nine games against the Browns. Cleveland released former Pro Bowl cornerback Joe Haden last week and he was swiftly picked up by Pittsburgh. Haden’s first game as a Steeler will be against his former teammates.
The Browns are starting rookie DeShone Kizer at quarterback – something that would have surprised a lot of Cleveland fans three months ago. It’s unclear whether Kizer won the starting job or took it by default after dreadful training camps from Cody Kessler and Brock Osweiler.
“Since opening we’ve taken a small bit of smart money on the Steelers,” Bookmaker.eu spokesperson Scott Cooley says, “but I really doubt that is going to hold up. This line should get to double digits by the time kickoff rolls around.”
If it gets to double digits, it’ll be just the second time in the last six years a home team gets 10 or more points in Week 1. The New England Patriots were 10-point favorites at Buffalo to start the 2013 season. The Bills lost 23-21 but covered the spread.
Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears (+7, 51)
It’s a rebuilding year in Chicago where the Bears are 28/1 longshots just to win their own division. The Windy City blew away Jay Cutler and sucked in former Tampa Bay backup Mike Glennon to start under center for the Bears.
The Falcons, meanwhile, are hoping to overcome the Super Bowl slump – a trend for those sides that came up short in the title game. Teams that lost in the Super Bowl are 5-12 SU and 2-15 ATS in their Week 1 games the following season since 2000. The Super Bowl hangover is a real thing, people.
Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (+6, 48)
The Panthers hope their Super Bowl hangover is past them. They lost to the Broncos in Super Bowl 50 and followed that up with a 6-10 campaign last year.
Quarterback Cam Newton had offseason surgery on his throwing shoulder and bettors didn’t get to see much of him in the preseason. Will he be ready against the Niners?
“This game has garnered plenty of sharp support on the Panthers’ side,” Cooley says. “They may be fading this 49ers team early this year.”
Kyle Shanahan is the third head coach San Fran has hired since the team let go of Jim Harbaugh in 2014. The Niners won just seven of their 32 games under Jim Tomsula and Chip Kelly.
Week 1 of the NFL season is a moment sports bettors would like to freeze in time. It’s a week where the books and the bettors are able to go mano a mano wagering on lines based solely on personal preseason projections without any in-season results clouding those opinions.
Sportsbooks will play the first week of the season with more caution then they do once the game results begin to pour in. Those Week 1 lines will not be as sharp as the lines later in September.
That’s what makes three spreads particularly interesting on the NFL Week 1 betting board. The Cleveland Browns, Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers are interesting. All three teams are at home in the first week of the season and catching six or more points. Over the last five seasons (2011 to 2016) there have only be four home teams getting six or more points in Week 1.
“Last year, the bad teams were really bad and the good teams like the Patriots, Cowboys and Falcons crushed us week in and week out,” says Sportsbook.ag oddsmaker Peter Childs.
The Browns, Bears and 49ers went a combined 6-42 straight up and 15-32-1 against the spread last season. All three teams have different starting quarterbacks than a year ago but bettors are skeptical on whether any one of the three teams has improved.
“The public is on the chalk in all three games,” Chris Andrews, an oddsmaker at the South Point sportsbook in Las Vegas, told us. “Some wiseguy play on the Browns but no sharp money yet on the Bears or 49ers.”
One bet the public should be on is the Under. Jason Logan tweeted last November about the Under being on a run in games where the home team was getting 6.5 or more points.
The trend continued the rest of the 2016 season pushing the mark now to 5-21 Over/Under since 2015 and 23-44 since 2013.
Here’s a quick look at each of these games and where the Bookmakers project these lines landing just before kickoff.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (+9, 47)
The Steelers are 8-1 straight up and 6-2-1 against the spread in their last nine games against the Browns. Cleveland released former Pro Bowl cornerback Joe Haden last week and he was swiftly picked up by Pittsburgh. Haden’s first game as a Steeler will be against his former teammates.
The Browns are starting rookie DeShone Kizer at quarterback – something that would have surprised a lot of Cleveland fans three months ago. It’s unclear whether Kizer won the starting job or took it by default after dreadful training camps from Cody Kessler and Brock Osweiler.
“Since opening we’ve taken a small bit of smart money on the Steelers,” Bookmaker.eu spokesperson Scott Cooley says, “but I really doubt that is going to hold up. This line should get to double digits by the time kickoff rolls around.”
If it gets to double digits, it’ll be just the second time in the last six years a home team gets 10 or more points in Week 1. The New England Patriots were 10-point favorites at Buffalo to start the 2013 season. The Bills lost 23-21 but covered the spread.
Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears (+7, 51)
It’s a rebuilding year in Chicago where the Bears are 28/1 longshots just to win their own division. The Windy City blew away Jay Cutler and sucked in former Tampa Bay backup Mike Glennon to start under center for the Bears.
The Falcons, meanwhile, are hoping to overcome the Super Bowl slump – a trend for those sides that came up short in the title game. Teams that lost in the Super Bowl are 5-12 SU and 2-15 ATS in their Week 1 games the following season since 2000. The Super Bowl hangover is a real thing, people.
Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (+6, 48)
The Panthers hope their Super Bowl hangover is past them. They lost to the Broncos in Super Bowl 50 and followed that up with a 6-10 campaign last year.
Quarterback Cam Newton had offseason surgery on his throwing shoulder and bettors didn’t get to see much of him in the preseason. Will he be ready against the Niners?
“This game has garnered plenty of sharp support on the Panthers’ side,” Cooley says. “They may be fading this 49ers team early this year.”
Kyle Shanahan is the third head coach San Fran has hired since the team let go of Jim Harbaugh in 2014. The Niners won just seven of their 32 games under Jim Tomsula and Chip Kelly.
NFL Trend Report
NY JETS (5 - 11) at BUFFALO (7 - 9) - 9/10/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
NY JETS are 50-31 ATS (+15.9 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-2 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 2-2 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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ATLANTA (13 - 6) at CHICAGO (3 - 13) - 9/10/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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JACKSONVILLE (3 - 13) at HOUSTON (10 - 8) - 9/10/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-1 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 4-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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PHILADELPHIA (7 - 9) at WASHINGTON (8 - 7 - 1) - 9/10/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 83-112 ATS (-40.2 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 83-112 ATS (-40.2 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 83-112 ATS (-40.2 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 13-30 ATS (-20.0 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 4-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 4-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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ARIZONA (7 - 8 - 1) at DETROIT (9 - 8) - 9/10/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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OAKLAND (12 - 5) at TENNESSEE (9 - 7) - 9/10/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
OAKLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 2-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 2-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
____________________________________________________________________
TAMPA BAY (9 - 7) at MIAMI (10 - 7) - 9/10/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
____________________________________________________________________
BALTIMORE (8 - 8) at CINCINNATI (6 - 9 - 1) - 9/10/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 71-97 ATS (-35.7 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 2-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 3-1 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
____________________________________________________________________
PITTSBURGH (13 - 6) at CLEVELAND (1 - 15) - 9/10/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 100-70 ATS (+23.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
CLEVELAND is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
____________________________________________________________________
INDIANAPOLIS (8 - 8) at LA RAMS (4 - 12) - 9/10/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
LA RAMS is 175-224 ATS (-71.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 175-224 ATS (-71.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 80-114 ATS (-45.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
LA RAMS is 33-52 ATS (-24.2 Units) in September games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
____________________________________________________________________
SEATTLE (11 - 6 - 1) at GREEN BAY (12 - 7) - 9/10/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 181-127 ATS (+41.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 2-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 2-0 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
____________________________________________________________________
CAROLINA (6 - 10) at SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 14) - 9/10/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 78-55 ATS (+17.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 56-35 ATS (+17.5 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
____________________________________________________________________
NY GIANTS (11 - 6) at DALLAS (13 - 4) - 9/10/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 4-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 3-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS (5 - 11) at BUFFALO (7 - 9) - 9/10/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
NY JETS are 50-31 ATS (+15.9 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-2 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 2-2 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
____________________________________________________________________
ATLANTA (13 - 6) at CHICAGO (3 - 13) - 9/10/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
____________________________________________________________________
JACKSONVILLE (3 - 13) at HOUSTON (10 - 8) - 9/10/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-1 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 4-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
____________________________________________________________________
PHILADELPHIA (7 - 9) at WASHINGTON (8 - 7 - 1) - 9/10/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 83-112 ATS (-40.2 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 83-112 ATS (-40.2 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 83-112 ATS (-40.2 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 13-30 ATS (-20.0 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 4-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 4-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
____________________________________________________________________
ARIZONA (7 - 8 - 1) at DETROIT (9 - 8) - 9/10/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
____________________________________________________________________
OAKLAND (12 - 5) at TENNESSEE (9 - 7) - 9/10/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
OAKLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 2-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 2-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
____________________________________________________________________
TAMPA BAY (9 - 7) at MIAMI (10 - 7) - 9/10/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
____________________________________________________________________
BALTIMORE (8 - 8) at CINCINNATI (6 - 9 - 1) - 9/10/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 71-97 ATS (-35.7 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 2-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 3-1 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
____________________________________________________________________
PITTSBURGH (13 - 6) at CLEVELAND (1 - 15) - 9/10/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 100-70 ATS (+23.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
CLEVELAND is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
____________________________________________________________________
INDIANAPOLIS (8 - 8) at LA RAMS (4 - 12) - 9/10/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
LA RAMS is 175-224 ATS (-71.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 175-224 ATS (-71.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 80-114 ATS (-45.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
LA RAMS is 33-52 ATS (-24.2 Units) in September games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
____________________________________________________________________
SEATTLE (11 - 6 - 1) at GREEN BAY (12 - 7) - 9/10/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 181-127 ATS (+41.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 2-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 2-0 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
____________________________________________________________________
CAROLINA (6 - 10) at SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 14) - 9/10/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 78-55 ATS (+17.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 56-35 ATS (+17.5 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
____________________________________________________________________
NY GIANTS (11 - 6) at DALLAS (13 - 4) - 9/10/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 4-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 3-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NFL Trend Report
2:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Chicago is 4-15 SU in its last 19 games at home
2:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. TENNESSEE
Oakland is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Oakland is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Tennessee is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games
2:00 PM
NY JETS vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Jets last 6 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
NY Jets are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games
Buffalo is 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing NY Jets
2:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. MIAMI
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games
Tampa Bay is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
2:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. HOUSTON
Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Houston
Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
2:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Pittsburgh is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Cleveland is 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Cleveland is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games at home
2:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. WASHINGTON
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games on the road
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Washington's last 10 games at home
2:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore
2:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. DETROIT
Arizona is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Arizona's last 13 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games at home
5:05 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. LOS ANGELES
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Indianapolis's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
Los Angeles is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
5:25 PM
SEATTLE vs. GREEN BAY
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games
Seattle is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games
Green Bay is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
5:25 PM
CAROLINA vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Carolina is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Carolina's last 9 games
San Francisco is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Carolina
San Francisco is 1-14 SU in its last 15 games
9:30 PM
NY GIANTS vs. DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of the NY Giants last 9 games on the road
NY Giants are 3-5-2 ATS in their last 10 games on the road
Dallas is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas's last 8 games when playing at home against NY Giants
2:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Chicago is 4-15 SU in its last 19 games at home
2:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. TENNESSEE
Oakland is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Oakland is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Tennessee is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games
2:00 PM
NY JETS vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Jets last 6 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
NY Jets are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games
Buffalo is 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing NY Jets
2:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. MIAMI
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games
Tampa Bay is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
2:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. HOUSTON
Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Houston
Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
2:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Pittsburgh is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Cleveland is 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Cleveland is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games at home
2:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. WASHINGTON
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games on the road
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Washington's last 10 games at home
2:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore
2:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. DETROIT
Arizona is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Arizona's last 13 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games at home
5:05 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. LOS ANGELES
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Indianapolis's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
Los Angeles is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
5:25 PM
SEATTLE vs. GREEN BAY
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games
Seattle is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games
Green Bay is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
5:25 PM
CAROLINA vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Carolina is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Carolina's last 9 games
San Francisco is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Carolina
San Francisco is 1-14 SU in its last 15 games
9:30 PM
NY GIANTS vs. DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of the NY Giants last 9 games on the road
NY Giants are 3-5-2 ATS in their last 10 games on the road
Dallas is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas's last 8 games when playing at home against NY Giants
NFL Tech Trends
N.Y. JETS at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
McDermott Bills debut! Jets won and covered both vs. Bills LY but had dropped previous five in series. Jets “under” 5-2 last 7 away LY. Bills were “over” 12-4 in 2016, though series “under” 4-1 last five.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on series trends.
ATLANTA at CHICAGO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bears 7-13-1 last 21 on board but were 4-1 as home dog LY. Falcs 7-1 vs. line away LY also “over” 16-3 in 2016.
Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Falcons, based on “totals” and team trends.
JACKSONVILLE at HOUSTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Texans have won last 6 SU in series (4-2 vs. line in those games). O’Brien 9-2-1 as home chalk past two seasons. “Overs” 4-1 last five in series, and Jags “over” 15-7 last 22 since late 2015.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Texans, based on “totals” and team trends.
PHILADELPHIA at WASHINGTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Skins have won last five and covered last six in series. “Overs” 7-2 last nine meetings, and Birds “over” 10-1 last 11 on road. Skins “over” 14-5-1 last 20.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Redskins, based on “totals” and team trends.
ARIZONA at DETROIT (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Cards have won SU last seven vs. Lions since 2007, covering six of those. Arians 3-0 SU and vs. line against Detroit. Arians 20-12 vs. spread as reg season visitor since taking over Cards in 2013. Arians also “over” 10-4-1 LY, though Caldwell “under” 12-6 last 18 for Lions.
Tech Edge: Cards, based on series trends.
OAKLAND at TENNESSEE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Raiders 6-2 vs. line on road in reg season LY, now 9-2 last 11 in role. Oakland won and covered at Titans last 2 years. Raiders “over” 27-13-1 last 41 since mid 2014 though “unders” 1-0-1 last two years in series. Titans “over” 7-2-1 last ten at Nashville.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Raiders, based on “totals” and team trends.
TAMPA BAY at MIAMI (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bucs 6-2 vs. line away LY, though Dolphins 2-1 as home dog. Adam Gase “over” 12-4 in Miami debut LY.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.
BALTIMORE at CINCINNATI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
”Under” last three in series. Marvin Lewis 5-2 SU and vs. line last seven vs. Harbaugh. Ravens only 2-6 vs. points away LY.
Tech Edge: Slight to “under” and Bengals, based on “totals” and series trends.
PITTSBURGH at CLEVELAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Steel has won SU last four meetings and is 6-3 vs. spread last nine vs. Browns. Hue Jackson just 1-7 as home dog in Brownies debut LY, and Cleveland 9-22-1 vs. spread last two seasons. Steel 12-6 vs. spread last 18 on reg season road. “Under” 10-2 last 12 in series. Browns “under” 9-2 last 11 at home.
Tech Edge: “Under” and Steel, based on “totals” and team trends.
INDIANAPOLIS at L.A. RAMS (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
McVay LA debut! Colts “over” 9-2 last 11 away. Rams only 1-5-1 vs. line at Coliseum LY, 1-10-1 last 12 vs. line to close season.
Tech Edge: Slight to “over” and Colts, based on “totals” and Rams struggling trends.
SEATTLE at GREEN BAY (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Home team 4-0 SU and vs. line in series since 2012. But Carroll 10-3-2 as reg.-season dog since 2013. Pack “over” 13-6 in 2016, and 14-7-2 as reg. season home chalk since 2014.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on "totals" trends.
CAROLINA at SAN FRANCISCO (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Shanahan SF debut! Panthers 0-7-1 last eight as chalk away from Charlotte.
Tech Edge: 49ers, based on team trends.
N.Y. GIANTS at DALLAS (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Eli won and covered both vs. Dallas LY, and 5-2-1 vs. line last eight at Arlington. Eli has now covered last five vs. Dallas as well. NYG 8-3 vs. spread last 11 reg season LY. Also “under” 12-4 in 2015. Dallas “under” 15-8-1 last 24 in reg season.
Tech Edge: Giants and “under,” based on series and “totals” trends.
N.Y. JETS at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
McDermott Bills debut! Jets won and covered both vs. Bills LY but had dropped previous five in series. Jets “under” 5-2 last 7 away LY. Bills were “over” 12-4 in 2016, though series “under” 4-1 last five.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on series trends.
ATLANTA at CHICAGO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bears 7-13-1 last 21 on board but were 4-1 as home dog LY. Falcs 7-1 vs. line away LY also “over” 16-3 in 2016.
Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Falcons, based on “totals” and team trends.
JACKSONVILLE at HOUSTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Texans have won last 6 SU in series (4-2 vs. line in those games). O’Brien 9-2-1 as home chalk past two seasons. “Overs” 4-1 last five in series, and Jags “over” 15-7 last 22 since late 2015.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Texans, based on “totals” and team trends.
PHILADELPHIA at WASHINGTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Skins have won last five and covered last six in series. “Overs” 7-2 last nine meetings, and Birds “over” 10-1 last 11 on road. Skins “over” 14-5-1 last 20.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Redskins, based on “totals” and team trends.
ARIZONA at DETROIT (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Cards have won SU last seven vs. Lions since 2007, covering six of those. Arians 3-0 SU and vs. line against Detroit. Arians 20-12 vs. spread as reg season visitor since taking over Cards in 2013. Arians also “over” 10-4-1 LY, though Caldwell “under” 12-6 last 18 for Lions.
Tech Edge: Cards, based on series trends.
OAKLAND at TENNESSEE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Raiders 6-2 vs. line on road in reg season LY, now 9-2 last 11 in role. Oakland won and covered at Titans last 2 years. Raiders “over” 27-13-1 last 41 since mid 2014 though “unders” 1-0-1 last two years in series. Titans “over” 7-2-1 last ten at Nashville.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Raiders, based on “totals” and team trends.
TAMPA BAY at MIAMI (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bucs 6-2 vs. line away LY, though Dolphins 2-1 as home dog. Adam Gase “over” 12-4 in Miami debut LY.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.
BALTIMORE at CINCINNATI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
”Under” last three in series. Marvin Lewis 5-2 SU and vs. line last seven vs. Harbaugh. Ravens only 2-6 vs. points away LY.
Tech Edge: Slight to “under” and Bengals, based on “totals” and series trends.
PITTSBURGH at CLEVELAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Steel has won SU last four meetings and is 6-3 vs. spread last nine vs. Browns. Hue Jackson just 1-7 as home dog in Brownies debut LY, and Cleveland 9-22-1 vs. spread last two seasons. Steel 12-6 vs. spread last 18 on reg season road. “Under” 10-2 last 12 in series. Browns “under” 9-2 last 11 at home.
Tech Edge: “Under” and Steel, based on “totals” and team trends.
INDIANAPOLIS at L.A. RAMS (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
McVay LA debut! Colts “over” 9-2 last 11 away. Rams only 1-5-1 vs. line at Coliseum LY, 1-10-1 last 12 vs. line to close season.
Tech Edge: Slight to “over” and Colts, based on “totals” and Rams struggling trends.
SEATTLE at GREEN BAY (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Home team 4-0 SU and vs. line in series since 2012. But Carroll 10-3-2 as reg.-season dog since 2013. Pack “over” 13-6 in 2016, and 14-7-2 as reg. season home chalk since 2014.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on "totals" trends.
CAROLINA at SAN FRANCISCO (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Shanahan SF debut! Panthers 0-7-1 last eight as chalk away from Charlotte.
Tech Edge: 49ers, based on team trends.
N.Y. GIANTS at DALLAS (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Eli won and covered both vs. Dallas LY, and 5-2-1 vs. line last eight at Arlington. Eli has now covered last five vs. Dallas as well. NYG 8-3 vs. spread last 11 reg season LY. Also “under” 12-4 in 2015. Dallas “under” 15-8-1 last 24 in reg season.
Tech Edge: Giants and “under,” based on series and “totals” trends.
NFL Week 1 Underdogs to Watch
The 2017 NFL season is finally here and that means that football bettors everywhere can hopefully see some rewards soon after breaking down NFL futures and Week 1 lines for months. When lines have been out for that long there is never a shortage of opinions on which teams will get off to a hot start, but it's also a tough time for the oddsmakers because the numbers they put out are primarily based on past results, past statistics, and projections.
That means that there are some teams that are catching points as underdogs that likely shouldn't if this game was played much later in the year, and I'm about to address a few of them.
Last year at VegasInsider.com this “Underdogs to Watch” weekly piece was a popular one. It looks at all the NFL teams that are getting 4 points or more on the spread and tries to identify which of those teams has the best shot at an outright victory. Week 1 of 2017 has a handful of teams that fit those parameters for Sunday's action (I will be ignoring the KC/NE game on Thursday where the Chiefs apply), so let's get right to the breakdown.
Underdogs That Qualify
New York Jets (+9.5); ML (+356)
Chicago Bears (+7); ML (+250)
Jacksonville Jaguars (+6); ML (+220)
Cleveland Browns (+9); ML (+325)
San Francisco 49ers (+5.5); ML (+200)
I'll begin with the Cleveland Browns (+325) as they racked up a lot of frequent flyer miles from being on this list nearly every week a season ago. Cleveland parlayed their awful 1-15 SU 2016 campaign into the 1st overall pick, had multiple draft picks in each of the first few rounds, and for the first time in seemingly forever, they made some good choices with those picks (Myles Garrett, Jabrill Peppers, and DeShone Kizer).
Kizer has already been named the Week 1 starter for Cleveland, and backing rookie QB's in their first NFL game is not something I'm in the business of doing. We've seen rookie QB's have much more success in the NFL in recent years – think Dak Prescott a year ago – but the Browns are still the Browns, albeit an improved squad, and can't be backed SU against a Steelers team that's one of the favorites in the AFC behind the Patriots.
Jacksonville (+220) and San Francisco (+200) are the only two teams on this list getting less than a TD on the spread, and there are interesting arguments that can be made for both teams.
San Francisco is at home hosting a Carolina team that's looking to rebound after a tough 2016 season and home dogs are always a little intriguing. But the Panthers look poised to be a top contender for a strong bounce back campaign, as long as QB Cam Newton is completely healthy. He looked very sharp in the limited preseason action he got, and with a new weapon like rookie RB Christian McCaffrey at his disposal, it's hard to to believe Carolina won't win this game SU.
Jacksonville is in Houston to take on the Texans, and given the narratives about Houston rebuilding after Hurricane Harvey and the Jaguars “settling” on QB Blake Bortles as the starter in Week 3 of the preseason primarily because there were no better options, I don't see how sportsbooks will get any significant money on Jacksonville's spread or ML. But wouldn't it be fitting that Bortles and the Jags come out and light up a talented defense like Houston's in Week 1 when nobody believes they will.
Dealing with the aftermath of Harvey has to be draining for the Texans, and it's not like Bortles isn't capable of lighting it up at times. He may have shown next to nothing in the preseason, but this is one of those sneaky spots where I believe the team nobody wants (Jacksonville) shows up to play against the team everyone wants to back (Houston) for the feel-good storylines surrounding them.
That leaves the Jets (+356) and the Bears (+250) and both organizations are firmly entrenched in rebuilding/tank mode this year. Chicago will get some support because they host Atlanta and bettors love to fade the Super Bowl loser in Week 1, but I just don't see how the Falcons lose this game outright. Collapsing the way they did in the Super Bowl has left a horrible taste in their mouths for the entire offseason, and I wouldn't be surprised if they make a point to put the hammer down on bad teams like the Bears all season long.
New York has made it blatantly obvious that they'll be tanking away 2017 in hopes of rebuilding their entire roster from the ground up, but that perception/belief has also inflated this line to the point where Buffalo (a team that may be looking to rebuild themselves and has a QB who just got out of concussion protocol) should not be laying anywhere near 9 points. Trusting the Jets to win SU is tough and grabbing the points with them is the much smarter play in my opinion, but if you're a bettor that doesn't mind significant risk, a small flyer on the ML is worth a quick look.
So in the end, Week 1 doesn't have much in terms of great “live dogs” who are getting 4+ points as we will likely see as the season goes on. However, of the bunch, Jacksonville at +220 on the ML appears to be the best bet out there in terms of the outright upset, with a small play on the awful New York Jets at +356 a distant second.
The 2017 NFL season is finally here and that means that football bettors everywhere can hopefully see some rewards soon after breaking down NFL futures and Week 1 lines for months. When lines have been out for that long there is never a shortage of opinions on which teams will get off to a hot start, but it's also a tough time for the oddsmakers because the numbers they put out are primarily based on past results, past statistics, and projections.
That means that there are some teams that are catching points as underdogs that likely shouldn't if this game was played much later in the year, and I'm about to address a few of them.
Last year at VegasInsider.com this “Underdogs to Watch” weekly piece was a popular one. It looks at all the NFL teams that are getting 4 points or more on the spread and tries to identify which of those teams has the best shot at an outright victory. Week 1 of 2017 has a handful of teams that fit those parameters for Sunday's action (I will be ignoring the KC/NE game on Thursday where the Chiefs apply), so let's get right to the breakdown.
Underdogs That Qualify
New York Jets (+9.5); ML (+356)
Chicago Bears (+7); ML (+250)
Jacksonville Jaguars (+6); ML (+220)
Cleveland Browns (+9); ML (+325)
San Francisco 49ers (+5.5); ML (+200)
I'll begin with the Cleveland Browns (+325) as they racked up a lot of frequent flyer miles from being on this list nearly every week a season ago. Cleveland parlayed their awful 1-15 SU 2016 campaign into the 1st overall pick, had multiple draft picks in each of the first few rounds, and for the first time in seemingly forever, they made some good choices with those picks (Myles Garrett, Jabrill Peppers, and DeShone Kizer).
Kizer has already been named the Week 1 starter for Cleveland, and backing rookie QB's in their first NFL game is not something I'm in the business of doing. We've seen rookie QB's have much more success in the NFL in recent years – think Dak Prescott a year ago – but the Browns are still the Browns, albeit an improved squad, and can't be backed SU against a Steelers team that's one of the favorites in the AFC behind the Patriots.
Jacksonville (+220) and San Francisco (+200) are the only two teams on this list getting less than a TD on the spread, and there are interesting arguments that can be made for both teams.
San Francisco is at home hosting a Carolina team that's looking to rebound after a tough 2016 season and home dogs are always a little intriguing. But the Panthers look poised to be a top contender for a strong bounce back campaign, as long as QB Cam Newton is completely healthy. He looked very sharp in the limited preseason action he got, and with a new weapon like rookie RB Christian McCaffrey at his disposal, it's hard to to believe Carolina won't win this game SU.
Jacksonville is in Houston to take on the Texans, and given the narratives about Houston rebuilding after Hurricane Harvey and the Jaguars “settling” on QB Blake Bortles as the starter in Week 3 of the preseason primarily because there were no better options, I don't see how sportsbooks will get any significant money on Jacksonville's spread or ML. But wouldn't it be fitting that Bortles and the Jags come out and light up a talented defense like Houston's in Week 1 when nobody believes they will.
Dealing with the aftermath of Harvey has to be draining for the Texans, and it's not like Bortles isn't capable of lighting it up at times. He may have shown next to nothing in the preseason, but this is one of those sneaky spots where I believe the team nobody wants (Jacksonville) shows up to play against the team everyone wants to back (Houston) for the feel-good storylines surrounding them.
That leaves the Jets (+356) and the Bears (+250) and both organizations are firmly entrenched in rebuilding/tank mode this year. Chicago will get some support because they host Atlanta and bettors love to fade the Super Bowl loser in Week 1, but I just don't see how the Falcons lose this game outright. Collapsing the way they did in the Super Bowl has left a horrible taste in their mouths for the entire offseason, and I wouldn't be surprised if they make a point to put the hammer down on bad teams like the Bears all season long.
New York has made it blatantly obvious that they'll be tanking away 2017 in hopes of rebuilding their entire roster from the ground up, but that perception/belief has also inflated this line to the point where Buffalo (a team that may be looking to rebuild themselves and has a QB who just got out of concussion protocol) should not be laying anywhere near 9 points. Trusting the Jets to win SU is tough and grabbing the points with them is the much smarter play in my opinion, but if you're a bettor that doesn't mind significant risk, a small flyer on the ML is worth a quick look.
So in the end, Week 1 doesn't have much in terms of great “live dogs” who are getting 4+ points as we will likely see as the season goes on. However, of the bunch, Jacksonville at +220 on the ML appears to be the best bet out there in terms of the outright upset, with a small play on the awful New York Jets at +356 a distant second.
32 need-to-know betting notes for 32 NFL teams in 2017
NFL football is finally back as another preseason comes to a close. It's been seven months since the Patriots hoisted the Vince Lombardi Trophy in the greatest Super Bowl comeback ever, so what does this season have in store? To get you prepped for Week 1 of the 2017-18 season, we bring you one betting stat that you need-to-know for each and every team heading into this year.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens (2016: 8-8 SU, 7-9 ATS, 7-8-1 O/U)
Baltimore's secondary figures to improve with the additions of Brandon Carr and Tony Jefferson. The two of them join Jimmy Smith and Eric Weddle who made impacts last year. The Ravens also are a great bet to win close games with arguably the best kicker in football in Justin Tucker. He missed just one field goal last year and that was blocked.
Cincinnati Bengals (2016: 6-9-1 SU, 7-9 ATS, 6-10 O/U)
Andy Dalton puts up good numbers at quarterback against weak teams, but he has struggled in big games. Vontaze Burfict is already suspended and Adam Jones and is one just waiting to happen. The Bengals have a stretch of four road games in five weeks after an early bye.
Cleveland Browns (2016: 1-15 SU, 3-12-1 ATS, 8-8 O/U)
When your quarterback race was between Brock Osweiler (cut), DeShone Kizer (rookie) and Cody Kessler (meh), you aren't going to win too many games. Kenny Britt is the veteran presence at wide receiver, but he will likely see a lot of double teams considering the lack of other weapons. Cleveland closes the season with four road games over the last six weeks.
Pittsburgh Steelers (2016: 11-5 SU, 9-6-1 ATS, 6-10 O/U)
Injuries could derail this veteran team rather quickly. Ben Roethlisberger has missed chunks of games during the past two seasons and Le'Veon Bell wasn't at training camp, which could lead to a sluggish start. James Harrison is 39-years-old and despite his freakish strength and football IQ, he has definitely lost a step.
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills (2016: 7-9 SU, 6-10 ATS, 12-4 O/U)
Playing New England twice does not help things. But playing the Jets twice does and now that the Dolphins have lost Ryan Tannehill, the Bills caught a break even though the two meetings are in Weeks 15 and 17. The rest of the schedule is not easy however. In additional to having to play the AFC West and NFC South, the other two games are against the Bengals and Colts which were challenging a couple years ago but winnable now.
Miami Dolphins (2016: 10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS, 12-4 O/U)
Miami was a playoff team last season despite the fact Ryan Tannehill missed the last three games and it is expected to make another run this season. The loss of Tannehill for the year is tough and while the addition of Jay Cutler may not be an upgrade, it is not a downgrade either as he knows the system and should slide right in. He has plenty of playmakers around him. Overall, the Dolphins increased their talent on defense which was a weakness last season and improvements on that side of the ball can make them dangerous.
New England Patriots (2016: 14-2 SU, 13-3 ATS, 6-10 O/U)
As is the case every year, the Patriots have a bulls-eye on their backs and they never face an opponent that is not sky high to face them. One major factor is that New England will be overvalued in a lot of games this season based on expectations and the success it had last season. The schedule outside of the division is not easy as the Patriots face Kansas City, New Orleans, Houston, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Denver, Oakland and Pittsburgh, all of which are playoff contenders. That is not a very easy section of games.
New York Jets (2016: 5-11 SU, 6-10 ATS, 7-8-1 O/U)
The Jets will see plenty of value this upcoming season as no one will want to touch them, so their spreads are going to be enormous. The problem here is where is the quality of football going to come from? They have no proven quarterback, the receiving corps is one of the worst ever in the NFL, Matt Forte is old, the offensive line is raw and the defense is starting from scratch. There was a lack of discipline last year and that was with numerous veterans on the team, so that discipline could be dangerous again and cost head coach Todd Bowles his job.
AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans (2016: 9-7 SU, 6-9-1 ATS, 6-10 O/U)
Houston was outscored by 49 points last season, which is more indicative of a six or seven win team. The only AFC teams with worse point differentials last year were Cleveland, Jacksonville and the Jets. After beating the Bears 23-14 in Week 1 last year, the Texans never again won a game by more than a touchdown. In fact, over their final 14 reg season contests, they got outscored by 66 points. When, or if, Watson will be the starting QB is a mystery with the underwhelming Tom Savage to begin the year under center. How much can Watt really improve the defensive performance from last year. By virtue of winning the division last year, they are the only AFC South team that must play the Patriots, Steelers and Chiefs this year.
Indianapolis Colts (2016: 8-8 SU, 7-8-1 ATS, 9-7 O/U)
Andrew Luck is at least expected to miss Week 1 and if he misses anymore time, this team is dead (even in a weak division). Luck isn't the only key player banged up either. Center Ryan Kelly missed time this preseason and it seems as if the entire receiving corps is banged up as well. This team is now "paying up" for overachieving in Luck's first several seasons. Head coach Chuck Pagano seems like a lame duck and the defense just isn't any good. If anything, look to bet the Over week-to-week with this team.
Jacksonville Jaguars (2016: 3-13 SU, 8-8 ATS, 10-6 SU)
Oddsmakers expect the AFC South is to be a three-horse race in 2017. But the Texans, Colts and Titans don't seem to be substantially better than the Jaguars, so there is some value here. Bettors are expecting improvement with the season win total of 6.5 heavily juiced to the Over. They had a Pythagorean Win expectation of 5.8 last year, so the win-loss record was a tad bit misleading even if the team was favored in only three games. This year, they're projected to be favored in four and should pull some upsets. Gus Bradley left behind a rapidly improving defense and top draft choice Leonard Fournette could be a difference maker on offense.
Tennessee Titans (2016: 9-7 SU, 7-9 SU, 10-6 O/U)
Just because the Titans may be better this year doesn't necessarily mean they will win more games. The jump that took place last year (from three wins in 2015 to nine in 2016) typically necessitates some sort of "leveling off" in year three. I'm a tad bit worried about the hype surrounding a team that won a total of five games in 2014-15. This is a division full of uninspiring head coaches and Mike Mularkey is definitely one of them. The defense was not great last year.
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos (2016: 9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS, 7-9 O/U)
Denver has several question marks. First, of course, is the quarterback position. The uninspiring Trevor Siemian was named the starter, second-year signal caller Paxton Lynch is injured and now Brock Osweiler makes his return to Denver. None of these pivots rates above league average. Second, Denver’s offensive line had major problems last season. Last season’s zone-heavy scheme is being scrapped by new coach Jeff Davidson, who favors a gap approach. But it’s unclear whether this season’s offensive line will be any better than last year’s. If not, then Denver’s quarterbacks will once again face heavy pressure and be vulnerable to sacks (40 last year). Finally, Denver’s schedule is the league’s most difficult, based on its opponents’ records last season.
Kansas City Chiefs (2016: 12-4 SU, 9-6-1 ATS, 6-10 O/U)
Should starter Alex Smith sustain an injury, rookie Patrick Mahomes would be thrown in the fire (despite looking good this preseason). The running back position is also a concern. Jamaal Charles is gone, so the Chiefs will rely on rookie Kareem Hunt and Charcandrick West. Neither had a play from scrimmage greater than 46 yards last season. Like all the teams in the AFC West, Kansas City’s schedule is brutal this season and ranks as the league’s second most difficult behind Denver’s. Finally, the Chiefs benefited greatly from turnovers last season, as they led the league with 33. But turnovers are somewhat random, so it will be hard for the Chiefs to match that performance this season.
Los Angeles Chargers (2016: 5-11 SU, 7-9 ATS, 9-6-1 O/U)
Last year, the Chargers’ season took a huge hit early, when wide receiver Keenan Allen was injured in Game 1, but he is healthy now and will have help in the form of rookie WR Mike Williams (if he can stay healthy), who was drafted No. 7 overall. Those two, plus tight ends Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry, will give quarterback Philip Rivers some terrific targets. Moreover, the Chargers have a great weapon at running back in Melvin Gordon. The second-year pro rushed for 997 yards last season and will be featured in Anthony Lynn’s “ground-and-pound” approach. Also, while other teams have to worry about losing their quarterback to injury, that’s toward the bottom of the Chargers’ concerns, as Rivers has started 176 consecutive games.
Oakland Raiders (2016: 12-4 SU, 10-6 ATS, 11-5 O/U)
Oakland has made major strides over the past three seasons, going from 3-13 in 2014 to 7-9 in 2015 and then to 12-4 last season. Oakland will be saddled with a very difficult schedule this year (the fourth hardest in the NFL), which includes a “home” game in Mexico City versus New England. There’s also a big concern at the running back position. General manager Reggie McKenzie traded for Marshawn Lynch, who has come out of retirement to play for his hometown team. But Lynch is now 31 years old and only gained 417 yards in seven games two seasons ago. Last season, the Raiders were tied with the Chiefs for the league’s best turnover differential (+16), but that is a statistic which can greatly change from year-to-year, so the Raiders’ success will be adversely affected if they don’t reach the same heights again.
NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears (2016: 3-13 SU, 7-9 ATS, 8-8 O/U)
Jordan Howard accounted for over 1,600 yards in 2016 and that was with a lot of uncertainty around him on offense. Cam Meredith showed flashes of brilliance at wide receiver with almost 900 yards receiving and four touchdowns. Mitchell Trubisky will be a solid option at quarterback when he eventually takes over. The team spent a lot of money this offseason to upgrade the defense.
Detroit Lions (2016: 9-7 SU, 8-8 ATS, 6-10 O/U)
The defensive line has taken a few injuries already this offseason including Kerry Hyder who had eight sacks in 2016. Ameer Abdullah is supposed to be the feature back, but the team needs to get more from the run to keep defenses honest. Abdullah has missed time in the past, so it could be a concern that he won't be able to stand up to a regular workload. The road slate is rough with trips to New Orleans, New York, Baltimore and Tampa Bay.
Green Bay Packers (2016: 10-6 SU, 9-6-1 ATS, 10-6 O/U)
The run game still needs a lot of work with Ty Montgomery and Jamaal Williams vying for carries. Montgomery is a converted wide reciever while Williams is a rookie. The team is relying on a lot of young players on defense especially if they start Kevin King at corner right out of college. Three of their final four games are on the road.
Minnesota Vikings (2016: 8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS, 7-9 O/U)
The loss of Adrian Peterson was mitigated by the additions of Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray. Cook is going to add some speed to the backfield and provide another option in the passing game. Sam Bradford will actually get a whole offseason with the team as opposed to last year when he came over just before the regular season began. The defense is littered with young talent including Xavier Rhodes and Linval Joseph.
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys (2016: 13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS, 6-10 O/U)
For a team that goes 13-3, regression is always possible and Dallas will not be sneaking up on anyone this season. The core group of the Cowboys is back but they did lose 10 players that accounted for over 500 games so depth could be an issue. Four of those losses came in the secondary as all four starters are gone and in a pass-heavy league, that is not a good thing. Teams will be better prepared for Prescott with a full year of film to look at. The division has gotten stronger and going 10-0 outside the division is not going to happen again. Oh, and that six game suspension for Ezekiel Elliott is going to hurt.
New York Giants (2016: 11-5 SU, 9-6-1 ATS, 4-12 O/U)
The Giants finished 11-5 last season and made it to the playoffs for the first time since 2011, so they can build on that heading into this year. The offense upgraded with the signing of wide receiver Brandon Marshall and drafting of tight end Evan Engram. The defense upgraded last season and it showed as New York went from dead last in total defense in 2015 to No. 10 last season while allowing the second fewest amount of points. The Giants only lost one of those starters so they could be even better this year. A pretty weak schedule should help them get back to the postseason.
Philadelphia Eagles (2016: 7-9 SU, 8-8 ATS, 9-7 O/U)
With the division better overall, it will be hard for the Eagles to improve on their seven wins from last season considering they started 0-4 in the division and winning the last two games when they meant nothing in Week 16 and Week 17. The schedule is tame but the opening stretch is a challenge with four of their first six games on the road and the two home games coming against the Giants and Cardinals. Philadelphia did not lose much in any big areas but did not add enough to gain significant progress either.
Washington (2016: 8-7-1 SU, 10-6 ATS, 12-4 O/U)
The defense was awful in 2016, allowing 377.9 yards per game which was No. 28 in the league. A new coordinator and scheme can help but it might take time to come together and in a division which should be tight, the progress cannot take too long. While the signing of Terrelle Pryor helps, losing two quality receivers is hard to overcome. Rob Kelley is the starting running back but he went over 100 yards only once last season so there will be little offensive balance. Like the Eagles, not enough was brought in to make a significant jump up.
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons (2016: 11-5 SU, 10-6 ATS, 12-3-1 O/U)
The offense is probably going to regress. Granted, it was still be one of the most prolific units in the league, but the loss of offensive-coordinator Kyle Shanahan certainly matters and it will be hard for Mattt Ryan to match last year’s numbers. Also, the big question here is how will the team respond after gagging away the Super Bowl in February? In other sports, there have been recent examples of a team coming up short in a championship scenario, only to go “all the way” the following year. Clemson football, UNC hoops and the Cleveland Cavaliers all come to mind. But we haven’t seen a Super Bowl loser make it back to that game the following season since Buffalo’s string of setbacks in the early 1990’s. The division is vastly improved this year and with Atlanta expected to be favored in as many as 12 games, there should be ample opportunities to fade them.
Carolina Panthers (2016: 6-10 SU, 6-9-1 ATS, 7-8-1 O/U)
All signs are pointing up this year. Going into last year, no one believed Carolina would match 2015’s 15-1 mark, but the fall was far harsher than anyone could have predicted. They won nine fewer games due in large part to going from +20 to -2 in turnover margin and going 2-6 SU in one-score games (where they were 7-1 the previous season). Expect them to finish somewhere in between the last two years, this year. That means a potential return to the playoffs as Cam Newton will be healthier and he’s got a new weapon in Christian McCaffery. By virtue of finishing last in the South last year, they will play an easier schedule. With the 49ers, Bills and Saints being the first three opponents this year, a 3-0 SU start is a very real possibility.
New Orleans Saints (2016: 7-9 SU, 11-5 ATS, 9-7 O/U)
There are two sides to every equation. As automatic as it may be to proclaim this offense as “good,” it’s just as easy to call the defense “very bad.” Drew Brees is also getting old (he’s 38) and don't expect a lot out of Adrian Peterson. The team traded away top receiver Brandin Cooks to the Patriots. Unless they plan on winning a lot of shootouts, another average season (at best) should be expected here. Having covered a division best 11 games in 2016, don’t expect them to be as successful at the betting window this season. They weren’t getting the usual respect at home (for some reason) last year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2016: 9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS, 7-8-1 O/U)
Exercise cation with this sexy sleeper. The main issue is that they managed to win nine games last year despite being favored in only three. Clearly, they caught the oddsmakers by surprise. Their +6 in net upsets led the league and indicates that regression could be on the way. For all the hype, the Bucs are favored in only five (maybe six) games this year, so this kind of reminds me of last year’s Jaguars (they won’t be that bad though). This team was not as good as last year’s record indicated. The division is tough, they it's asking a lot to win at both Atlanta and Carolina again and they could be set up for disappointment.
NFC WEST
Arizona Cardinals (2016: 7-8-1 SU, 6-10 ATS, 10-6 O/U)
Arizona was 7-8-1 last season, but its failures could largely be chalked up to losing close games. In games decided by seven points or less, the Cardinals were 2-5-1. In 2015, when Arizona went 13-3, it was 4-1 in games decided by seven or less points. A major factor in this decline was the performance of place kicker Chandler Catanzaro, who succeeded on just 75 percent of his attempts (after converting 90.3 percent in 2015). Management replaced Catanzaro with 42-year-old veteran Phil Dawson, who has missed just three field goals each of the past two seasons. Otherwise, Arizona chose to not over-react to its disappointing season. The well-respected coaching staff remains largely in place. Bruce Arians heads the unit, and he’s 51-27-1 in his career when in charge of a staff. The Cards also boast one of the best talents in the league in running back David Johnson, who gained 100-plus yards from scrimmage in each of his first 15 games last season.
Los Angeles Rams (2016: 4-12 SU, 4-11-1 ATS, 7-9 O/U)
Thirty-one-year-old Sean McVay (the youngest head coach in modern NFL history) replaces Jeff Fisher. McVay’s passion and enthusiasm will be key in turning around this franchise. Additionally, Wade Phillips is the new defensive coordinator. Though the Rams ranked No. 9 in total defense last season, Phillips is arguably the best defensive coordinator in the NFL and can make the unit even better. The coaching staff’s primary goal this past offseason was to upgrade the talent around second-year quarterback Jared Goff, who had a disastrous rookie season. A key signing was veteran left tackle Andrew Whitworth. Goff also should benefit from a change in scheme, as McVay favors more of a spread offense, which is what Goff succeeded in at Cal-Berkeley. Finally, running back Todd Gurley should have a bounce-back campaign following a season in which he rushed for just 885 yards (the fewest in NFL history by a back with 275-plus carries). Last year, defenses were able to stack the box against him, but that will be less the case this season.
San Francisco 49ers (2016: 2-14 SU, 4-11-1 ATS, 10-6 O/U)
Erstwhile head coach Chip Kelly lasted just one season in San Francisco. The 49ers went just 2-14, in no small measure due to the fact that the players didn’t fit Kelly’s system. Enter rookie head coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch. They’ve overhauled much of the roster (50 of the team’s players on its offseason roster were new), with an eye toward acquiring talent that will allow Shanahan to create an offense founded on personnel groups equally adept at running and passing the football. To help with the transition, the 49ers have also brought in players like QB Brian Hoyer and WR Pierre Garcon, who have worked under Shanahan in the past.
Seattle Seahawks (2016: 10-5-1 SU, 7-8-1 ATS, 9-7 O/U)
Seattle won 10 games last season — the fifth straight season it reached double-digit wins — a hallmark of consistency under coach Pete Carroll. If not for injuries to key personnel, Seattle likely would have won more than it did. Free safety Earl Thomas suffered a broken leg in a December game versus Carolina, after which Seattle’s defense gave up 30-plus points in three of its final six games (losing those three). Additionally, cornerback Richard Sherman was bothered by an MCL injury, while quarterback Russell Wilson battled knee and ankle injuries the entire season. Wilson’s rushing productivity was greatly affected, as he ran for a career-low 259 yards. The good news is that all of Seattle’s key players are feeling fit, so it’s a reasonable expectation that it will once again find the form which allowed it to reach the Super Bowl in the 2013 and 2014 seasons. Finally, the Seahawks play in a weak division, and get to play two of the worst teams in football (Rams, 49ers) twice each.
NFL football is finally back as another preseason comes to a close. It's been seven months since the Patriots hoisted the Vince Lombardi Trophy in the greatest Super Bowl comeback ever, so what does this season have in store? To get you prepped for Week 1 of the 2017-18 season, we bring you one betting stat that you need-to-know for each and every team heading into this year.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens (2016: 8-8 SU, 7-9 ATS, 7-8-1 O/U)
Baltimore's secondary figures to improve with the additions of Brandon Carr and Tony Jefferson. The two of them join Jimmy Smith and Eric Weddle who made impacts last year. The Ravens also are a great bet to win close games with arguably the best kicker in football in Justin Tucker. He missed just one field goal last year and that was blocked.
Cincinnati Bengals (2016: 6-9-1 SU, 7-9 ATS, 6-10 O/U)
Andy Dalton puts up good numbers at quarterback against weak teams, but he has struggled in big games. Vontaze Burfict is already suspended and Adam Jones and is one just waiting to happen. The Bengals have a stretch of four road games in five weeks after an early bye.
Cleveland Browns (2016: 1-15 SU, 3-12-1 ATS, 8-8 O/U)
When your quarterback race was between Brock Osweiler (cut), DeShone Kizer (rookie) and Cody Kessler (meh), you aren't going to win too many games. Kenny Britt is the veteran presence at wide receiver, but he will likely see a lot of double teams considering the lack of other weapons. Cleveland closes the season with four road games over the last six weeks.
Pittsburgh Steelers (2016: 11-5 SU, 9-6-1 ATS, 6-10 O/U)
Injuries could derail this veteran team rather quickly. Ben Roethlisberger has missed chunks of games during the past two seasons and Le'Veon Bell wasn't at training camp, which could lead to a sluggish start. James Harrison is 39-years-old and despite his freakish strength and football IQ, he has definitely lost a step.
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills (2016: 7-9 SU, 6-10 ATS, 12-4 O/U)
Playing New England twice does not help things. But playing the Jets twice does and now that the Dolphins have lost Ryan Tannehill, the Bills caught a break even though the two meetings are in Weeks 15 and 17. The rest of the schedule is not easy however. In additional to having to play the AFC West and NFC South, the other two games are against the Bengals and Colts which were challenging a couple years ago but winnable now.
Miami Dolphins (2016: 10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS, 12-4 O/U)
Miami was a playoff team last season despite the fact Ryan Tannehill missed the last three games and it is expected to make another run this season. The loss of Tannehill for the year is tough and while the addition of Jay Cutler may not be an upgrade, it is not a downgrade either as he knows the system and should slide right in. He has plenty of playmakers around him. Overall, the Dolphins increased their talent on defense which was a weakness last season and improvements on that side of the ball can make them dangerous.
New England Patriots (2016: 14-2 SU, 13-3 ATS, 6-10 O/U)
As is the case every year, the Patriots have a bulls-eye on their backs and they never face an opponent that is not sky high to face them. One major factor is that New England will be overvalued in a lot of games this season based on expectations and the success it had last season. The schedule outside of the division is not easy as the Patriots face Kansas City, New Orleans, Houston, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Denver, Oakland and Pittsburgh, all of which are playoff contenders. That is not a very easy section of games.
New York Jets (2016: 5-11 SU, 6-10 ATS, 7-8-1 O/U)
The Jets will see plenty of value this upcoming season as no one will want to touch them, so their spreads are going to be enormous. The problem here is where is the quality of football going to come from? They have no proven quarterback, the receiving corps is one of the worst ever in the NFL, Matt Forte is old, the offensive line is raw and the defense is starting from scratch. There was a lack of discipline last year and that was with numerous veterans on the team, so that discipline could be dangerous again and cost head coach Todd Bowles his job.
AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans (2016: 9-7 SU, 6-9-1 ATS, 6-10 O/U)
Houston was outscored by 49 points last season, which is more indicative of a six or seven win team. The only AFC teams with worse point differentials last year were Cleveland, Jacksonville and the Jets. After beating the Bears 23-14 in Week 1 last year, the Texans never again won a game by more than a touchdown. In fact, over their final 14 reg season contests, they got outscored by 66 points. When, or if, Watson will be the starting QB is a mystery with the underwhelming Tom Savage to begin the year under center. How much can Watt really improve the defensive performance from last year. By virtue of winning the division last year, they are the only AFC South team that must play the Patriots, Steelers and Chiefs this year.
Indianapolis Colts (2016: 8-8 SU, 7-8-1 ATS, 9-7 O/U)
Andrew Luck is at least expected to miss Week 1 and if he misses anymore time, this team is dead (even in a weak division). Luck isn't the only key player banged up either. Center Ryan Kelly missed time this preseason and it seems as if the entire receiving corps is banged up as well. This team is now "paying up" for overachieving in Luck's first several seasons. Head coach Chuck Pagano seems like a lame duck and the defense just isn't any good. If anything, look to bet the Over week-to-week with this team.
Jacksonville Jaguars (2016: 3-13 SU, 8-8 ATS, 10-6 SU)
Oddsmakers expect the AFC South is to be a three-horse race in 2017. But the Texans, Colts and Titans don't seem to be substantially better than the Jaguars, so there is some value here. Bettors are expecting improvement with the season win total of 6.5 heavily juiced to the Over. They had a Pythagorean Win expectation of 5.8 last year, so the win-loss record was a tad bit misleading even if the team was favored in only three games. This year, they're projected to be favored in four and should pull some upsets. Gus Bradley left behind a rapidly improving defense and top draft choice Leonard Fournette could be a difference maker on offense.
Tennessee Titans (2016: 9-7 SU, 7-9 SU, 10-6 O/U)
Just because the Titans may be better this year doesn't necessarily mean they will win more games. The jump that took place last year (from three wins in 2015 to nine in 2016) typically necessitates some sort of "leveling off" in year three. I'm a tad bit worried about the hype surrounding a team that won a total of five games in 2014-15. This is a division full of uninspiring head coaches and Mike Mularkey is definitely one of them. The defense was not great last year.
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos (2016: 9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS, 7-9 O/U)
Denver has several question marks. First, of course, is the quarterback position. The uninspiring Trevor Siemian was named the starter, second-year signal caller Paxton Lynch is injured and now Brock Osweiler makes his return to Denver. None of these pivots rates above league average. Second, Denver’s offensive line had major problems last season. Last season’s zone-heavy scheme is being scrapped by new coach Jeff Davidson, who favors a gap approach. But it’s unclear whether this season’s offensive line will be any better than last year’s. If not, then Denver’s quarterbacks will once again face heavy pressure and be vulnerable to sacks (40 last year). Finally, Denver’s schedule is the league’s most difficult, based on its opponents’ records last season.
Kansas City Chiefs (2016: 12-4 SU, 9-6-1 ATS, 6-10 O/U)
Should starter Alex Smith sustain an injury, rookie Patrick Mahomes would be thrown in the fire (despite looking good this preseason). The running back position is also a concern. Jamaal Charles is gone, so the Chiefs will rely on rookie Kareem Hunt and Charcandrick West. Neither had a play from scrimmage greater than 46 yards last season. Like all the teams in the AFC West, Kansas City’s schedule is brutal this season and ranks as the league’s second most difficult behind Denver’s. Finally, the Chiefs benefited greatly from turnovers last season, as they led the league with 33. But turnovers are somewhat random, so it will be hard for the Chiefs to match that performance this season.
Los Angeles Chargers (2016: 5-11 SU, 7-9 ATS, 9-6-1 O/U)
Last year, the Chargers’ season took a huge hit early, when wide receiver Keenan Allen was injured in Game 1, but he is healthy now and will have help in the form of rookie WR Mike Williams (if he can stay healthy), who was drafted No. 7 overall. Those two, plus tight ends Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry, will give quarterback Philip Rivers some terrific targets. Moreover, the Chargers have a great weapon at running back in Melvin Gordon. The second-year pro rushed for 997 yards last season and will be featured in Anthony Lynn’s “ground-and-pound” approach. Also, while other teams have to worry about losing their quarterback to injury, that’s toward the bottom of the Chargers’ concerns, as Rivers has started 176 consecutive games.
Oakland Raiders (2016: 12-4 SU, 10-6 ATS, 11-5 O/U)
Oakland has made major strides over the past three seasons, going from 3-13 in 2014 to 7-9 in 2015 and then to 12-4 last season. Oakland will be saddled with a very difficult schedule this year (the fourth hardest in the NFL), which includes a “home” game in Mexico City versus New England. There’s also a big concern at the running back position. General manager Reggie McKenzie traded for Marshawn Lynch, who has come out of retirement to play for his hometown team. But Lynch is now 31 years old and only gained 417 yards in seven games two seasons ago. Last season, the Raiders were tied with the Chiefs for the league’s best turnover differential (+16), but that is a statistic which can greatly change from year-to-year, so the Raiders’ success will be adversely affected if they don’t reach the same heights again.
NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears (2016: 3-13 SU, 7-9 ATS, 8-8 O/U)
Jordan Howard accounted for over 1,600 yards in 2016 and that was with a lot of uncertainty around him on offense. Cam Meredith showed flashes of brilliance at wide receiver with almost 900 yards receiving and four touchdowns. Mitchell Trubisky will be a solid option at quarterback when he eventually takes over. The team spent a lot of money this offseason to upgrade the defense.
Detroit Lions (2016: 9-7 SU, 8-8 ATS, 6-10 O/U)
The defensive line has taken a few injuries already this offseason including Kerry Hyder who had eight sacks in 2016. Ameer Abdullah is supposed to be the feature back, but the team needs to get more from the run to keep defenses honest. Abdullah has missed time in the past, so it could be a concern that he won't be able to stand up to a regular workload. The road slate is rough with trips to New Orleans, New York, Baltimore and Tampa Bay.
Green Bay Packers (2016: 10-6 SU, 9-6-1 ATS, 10-6 O/U)
The run game still needs a lot of work with Ty Montgomery and Jamaal Williams vying for carries. Montgomery is a converted wide reciever while Williams is a rookie. The team is relying on a lot of young players on defense especially if they start Kevin King at corner right out of college. Three of their final four games are on the road.
Minnesota Vikings (2016: 8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS, 7-9 O/U)
The loss of Adrian Peterson was mitigated by the additions of Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray. Cook is going to add some speed to the backfield and provide another option in the passing game. Sam Bradford will actually get a whole offseason with the team as opposed to last year when he came over just before the regular season began. The defense is littered with young talent including Xavier Rhodes and Linval Joseph.
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys (2016: 13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS, 6-10 O/U)
For a team that goes 13-3, regression is always possible and Dallas will not be sneaking up on anyone this season. The core group of the Cowboys is back but they did lose 10 players that accounted for over 500 games so depth could be an issue. Four of those losses came in the secondary as all four starters are gone and in a pass-heavy league, that is not a good thing. Teams will be better prepared for Prescott with a full year of film to look at. The division has gotten stronger and going 10-0 outside the division is not going to happen again. Oh, and that six game suspension for Ezekiel Elliott is going to hurt.
New York Giants (2016: 11-5 SU, 9-6-1 ATS, 4-12 O/U)
The Giants finished 11-5 last season and made it to the playoffs for the first time since 2011, so they can build on that heading into this year. The offense upgraded with the signing of wide receiver Brandon Marshall and drafting of tight end Evan Engram. The defense upgraded last season and it showed as New York went from dead last in total defense in 2015 to No. 10 last season while allowing the second fewest amount of points. The Giants only lost one of those starters so they could be even better this year. A pretty weak schedule should help them get back to the postseason.
Philadelphia Eagles (2016: 7-9 SU, 8-8 ATS, 9-7 O/U)
With the division better overall, it will be hard for the Eagles to improve on their seven wins from last season considering they started 0-4 in the division and winning the last two games when they meant nothing in Week 16 and Week 17. The schedule is tame but the opening stretch is a challenge with four of their first six games on the road and the two home games coming against the Giants and Cardinals. Philadelphia did not lose much in any big areas but did not add enough to gain significant progress either.
Washington (2016: 8-7-1 SU, 10-6 ATS, 12-4 O/U)
The defense was awful in 2016, allowing 377.9 yards per game which was No. 28 in the league. A new coordinator and scheme can help but it might take time to come together and in a division which should be tight, the progress cannot take too long. While the signing of Terrelle Pryor helps, losing two quality receivers is hard to overcome. Rob Kelley is the starting running back but he went over 100 yards only once last season so there will be little offensive balance. Like the Eagles, not enough was brought in to make a significant jump up.
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons (2016: 11-5 SU, 10-6 ATS, 12-3-1 O/U)
The offense is probably going to regress. Granted, it was still be one of the most prolific units in the league, but the loss of offensive-coordinator Kyle Shanahan certainly matters and it will be hard for Mattt Ryan to match last year’s numbers. Also, the big question here is how will the team respond after gagging away the Super Bowl in February? In other sports, there have been recent examples of a team coming up short in a championship scenario, only to go “all the way” the following year. Clemson football, UNC hoops and the Cleveland Cavaliers all come to mind. But we haven’t seen a Super Bowl loser make it back to that game the following season since Buffalo’s string of setbacks in the early 1990’s. The division is vastly improved this year and with Atlanta expected to be favored in as many as 12 games, there should be ample opportunities to fade them.
Carolina Panthers (2016: 6-10 SU, 6-9-1 ATS, 7-8-1 O/U)
All signs are pointing up this year. Going into last year, no one believed Carolina would match 2015’s 15-1 mark, but the fall was far harsher than anyone could have predicted. They won nine fewer games due in large part to going from +20 to -2 in turnover margin and going 2-6 SU in one-score games (where they were 7-1 the previous season). Expect them to finish somewhere in between the last two years, this year. That means a potential return to the playoffs as Cam Newton will be healthier and he’s got a new weapon in Christian McCaffery. By virtue of finishing last in the South last year, they will play an easier schedule. With the 49ers, Bills and Saints being the first three opponents this year, a 3-0 SU start is a very real possibility.
New Orleans Saints (2016: 7-9 SU, 11-5 ATS, 9-7 O/U)
There are two sides to every equation. As automatic as it may be to proclaim this offense as “good,” it’s just as easy to call the defense “very bad.” Drew Brees is also getting old (he’s 38) and don't expect a lot out of Adrian Peterson. The team traded away top receiver Brandin Cooks to the Patriots. Unless they plan on winning a lot of shootouts, another average season (at best) should be expected here. Having covered a division best 11 games in 2016, don’t expect them to be as successful at the betting window this season. They weren’t getting the usual respect at home (for some reason) last year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2016: 9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS, 7-8-1 O/U)
Exercise cation with this sexy sleeper. The main issue is that they managed to win nine games last year despite being favored in only three. Clearly, they caught the oddsmakers by surprise. Their +6 in net upsets led the league and indicates that regression could be on the way. For all the hype, the Bucs are favored in only five (maybe six) games this year, so this kind of reminds me of last year’s Jaguars (they won’t be that bad though). This team was not as good as last year’s record indicated. The division is tough, they it's asking a lot to win at both Atlanta and Carolina again and they could be set up for disappointment.
NFC WEST
Arizona Cardinals (2016: 7-8-1 SU, 6-10 ATS, 10-6 O/U)
Arizona was 7-8-1 last season, but its failures could largely be chalked up to losing close games. In games decided by seven points or less, the Cardinals were 2-5-1. In 2015, when Arizona went 13-3, it was 4-1 in games decided by seven or less points. A major factor in this decline was the performance of place kicker Chandler Catanzaro, who succeeded on just 75 percent of his attempts (after converting 90.3 percent in 2015). Management replaced Catanzaro with 42-year-old veteran Phil Dawson, who has missed just three field goals each of the past two seasons. Otherwise, Arizona chose to not over-react to its disappointing season. The well-respected coaching staff remains largely in place. Bruce Arians heads the unit, and he’s 51-27-1 in his career when in charge of a staff. The Cards also boast one of the best talents in the league in running back David Johnson, who gained 100-plus yards from scrimmage in each of his first 15 games last season.
Los Angeles Rams (2016: 4-12 SU, 4-11-1 ATS, 7-9 O/U)
Thirty-one-year-old Sean McVay (the youngest head coach in modern NFL history) replaces Jeff Fisher. McVay’s passion and enthusiasm will be key in turning around this franchise. Additionally, Wade Phillips is the new defensive coordinator. Though the Rams ranked No. 9 in total defense last season, Phillips is arguably the best defensive coordinator in the NFL and can make the unit even better. The coaching staff’s primary goal this past offseason was to upgrade the talent around second-year quarterback Jared Goff, who had a disastrous rookie season. A key signing was veteran left tackle Andrew Whitworth. Goff also should benefit from a change in scheme, as McVay favors more of a spread offense, which is what Goff succeeded in at Cal-Berkeley. Finally, running back Todd Gurley should have a bounce-back campaign following a season in which he rushed for just 885 yards (the fewest in NFL history by a back with 275-plus carries). Last year, defenses were able to stack the box against him, but that will be less the case this season.
San Francisco 49ers (2016: 2-14 SU, 4-11-1 ATS, 10-6 O/U)
Erstwhile head coach Chip Kelly lasted just one season in San Francisco. The 49ers went just 2-14, in no small measure due to the fact that the players didn’t fit Kelly’s system. Enter rookie head coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch. They’ve overhauled much of the roster (50 of the team’s players on its offseason roster were new), with an eye toward acquiring talent that will allow Shanahan to create an offense founded on personnel groups equally adept at running and passing the football. To help with the transition, the 49ers have also brought in players like QB Brian Hoyer and WR Pierre Garcon, who have worked under Shanahan in the past.
Seattle Seahawks (2016: 10-5-1 SU, 7-8-1 ATS, 9-7 O/U)
Seattle won 10 games last season — the fifth straight season it reached double-digit wins — a hallmark of consistency under coach Pete Carroll. If not for injuries to key personnel, Seattle likely would have won more than it did. Free safety Earl Thomas suffered a broken leg in a December game versus Carolina, after which Seattle’s defense gave up 30-plus points in three of its final six games (losing those three). Additionally, cornerback Richard Sherman was bothered by an MCL injury, while quarterback Russell Wilson battled knee and ankle injuries the entire season. Wilson’s rushing productivity was greatly affected, as he ran for a career-low 259 yards. The good news is that all of Seattle’s key players are feeling fit, so it’s a reasonable expectation that it will once again find the form which allowed it to reach the Super Bowl in the 2013 and 2014 seasons. Finally, the Seahawks play in a weak division, and get to play two of the worst teams in football (Rams, 49ers) twice each.
