Sunday 9/06/2020 Comps/Bonus Plays,Trends, Betting Info, Etc

[bmd1803]

HOUSTON ASTROS VS. LOS ANGELES ANGELS PREDICTIONS

PICKS

HOU Astros Win Money Line
-150

Under 9.5 Game Totals
-110

Money Line Pick
This Sunday afternoon game will wrap up the series between two AL West rivals. The Astros are looking to keep pace with the Athletics for the division, while the Angels are just looking to try and string together some kind of win streak. Starting this game for Houston will be Framber Valdez, who is 3-2 on the year with an ERA of 2.58. In six of his eight starts, Valdez has gone at least 6.0 innings, so he can provide plenty of length, which means the bullpen can avoid having to work a ton of innings. Valdez is extremely good on the road, going 1-1 with an ERA of 0.86. He has allowed just two runs over 21.0 innings in these road starts, so I would look for him to have similar success here.

On the other side will be Jaime Barria, who has yet to earn a decision, but has an ERA of 2.63. He will get his second start of the season here after most recently allowing just one runs over 4.1 innings against the Mariners. Valdez made one long relief appearance against the Astros this season, going 5.0 innings of one run ball.

Because of the success Valdez has had on the road this season, I am going to look to back him here. it would only be a lean, but the Astros will be my pick. ★


Game Totals Pick
There are plenty of guys in both lineups that can provide power and we saw a ton of runs in the doubleheader on Saturday, however with these two pitchers, I am going to look more towards the under. Valdez’s ability to pitch on the road is no fluke and his one start against the Angels on the road saw him allow one run over 6.1 innings. Barria has yet to allow more than two runs in a game this season and that appearance against Houston was his best of the season. I will look for guys to be a little more sluggish after a long doubleheader on Saturday and will take the under as a lean. ★

 

[bmd1803]

SAN DIEGO PADRES VS. OAKLAND ATHLETICS PREDICTIONS

PICKS

SD Padres Win Money Line
-115

Over 9.5 Game Totals
-105

Money Line Pick
Two West Coast teams will conclude their weekend series here as they meet up on Sunday afternoon. The Padres are red hot, but were held in check on Saturday, losing by a score of 8-4. They will now look to bounce back when they start Garrett Richards. He is 1-2 on the season and has posted an ERA of 4.63. He bounced back from a horrible start against the Mariners, where he had allowed six runs over 0.2 innings. This bounce back start came against the Rockies, where he allowed zero runs over 3.2 innings.

Mike Fiers gets the start on the other side for the Athletics. He is 4-1 on the season, yet has an ERA of 4.86. He is actually coming off his best start of the season, going 6.0 shutout innings against the Rangers. Even knowing that, he is hard to trust in this spot because the Padres have been crushing the ball.

I do not trust either pitcher here with both being extremely inconsistent. However, I will look to back the better offense and that is the San Diego Padres. ★


Game Totals Pick
The total very well could be the better play here just based on the pitchers alone. Fiers may have had a successful outing last time out, but that was against an anemic Rangers’ offense. This is a much different test as the Padres may very well be the best offense in baseball. Oakland is no slouch either, seeing they just scored eight runs against this Padres team, so I expect them to have plenty of success against Richards. Look for both pitchers to struggle early here and for runs to be scored throughout the entire game. As a result, I will back the over with medium confidence. ★★

 

[bmd1803]

TEXAS RANGERS VS SEATTLE MARINERS PREDICTIONS

PICKS

SEA Mariners Win Money Line
-150

Over 8.5 Game Totals
-110

Money Line Pick
The Rangers are not very good and have nothing to play for so they should be at the top of your fade list on a day to day business. The team just doesn’t score and has only one real quality starting pitcher. That is not Jordan Lyles, who has an ERA of 8.59 coming into this contest. The last time he took on the Mariners in Seattle he gave up eight runs in just four innings. I am not expecting another similar eruption from the home side in this one but backing the Rangers feels more like gambling than playing the advantages right now. The only downside to fading Texas here is that you have to back a Seattle side that is no juggernaut. They are ahead of the Rangers in the standings though and compared to Texas’ atrocious offense the Mariners are palatable. Starter Justin Dunn has not given up a run in either of his last two starts either so we get a chance to back a hot pitcher. That makes it easier to get comfortable with Seattle. As does the fact that Dunn’s two wins this season have come against Texas.


Take Seattle.
**


Game Totals Pick
That Texas offense looks so bad sometimes I want to go under here but with Lyles on the mound I am thinking otherwise. Dunn has been great of late but there has to be some regression there too, a third straight shutout start just doesn’t seem likely for a starter of his caliber. There are also shaky bullpens on both sides that can definitely help the scoring. Look for Seattle to win 7-3.


Take the over.
**

 

[bmd1803]

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS VS. CHICAGO CUBS PREDICTIONS

PICKS

STL Cardinals Win Money Line
-115

Over 12.0 Game Totals
-110

Money Line Pick
The Cardinals got another commanding performance from Adam Wainwright to take game one of yesterday’s double-header (and are winning game two as this is being written). This is a team that fell off the radar early on due to COVID-19 scheduling delays but I am coming around on them. They pitch really well, fourth in ERA, and while their hitting is not dominant there are a lot of tough outs in their lineup. One thing I worry about is the effect of the scheduling and having to play catchup on that all season long. Dakota Hudson gets the ball here looking to back up his best start of the season with another one. He gives them a great shot at keeping the good times rolling. For the Cubs they are in first place and not quite feeling the heat but right now they have one more loss than St. Louis. I like the overall construction of this club but a bunch of their guys, Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber and a few others never quite became the elite players they expected. This is a balanced group overall, 12th in ERA, 14th in runs, but there is nothing special about them. Jon Lester has a big game reputation but unlike Wainwright he is struggling this season.


Take St. Louis
**


Game Totals Pick
Lester just gave up five runs to Pittsburgh in his last start. That is not a great hitting team and I am not expecting him to suddenly turn back the clock and stone St. Louis. The Cubs can hit the long ball and at Wrigley Field that has always been a dangerous weapon. I like Hudson to pitch solidly but not dominate a good Chicago lineup. I think the starters exit the game with St. Louis leading something like 4-3. From there we just need a few more knocks against the relievers to get the over. The Cubs’ bullpen is not a strength.


Take the over.
**

 

[bmd1803]

COLORADO ROCKIES VS. LOS ANGELES DODGERS PREDICTIONS

PICKS

LA Dodgers Win -1.5 Run Line
-135

Over 9.5 Game Totals
-105

Run Line Pick
These teams are tied in the 9th as this is being written but it won’t change that L.A. is the only team to 30 wins thus far. It only took them 40 games to get there which is a very good winning percentage. The funny thing is that is you look at their losses they have often been in games when they have been very heavy favorites, sometimes more than -300. Also, they have been a favorite in every game this season, a feat that is pretty rare but shows their dominance in all facets of the game. They will have an advantage on the mound in this one with Julio Urias, even if folks don’t talk about him the way they used to. The only area where they won’t have an advantage over Colorado is in desperation. The Rockies are seeing a promising season slip away and there seems to be not much they can do about it. It was encouraging on Saturday that they got a solid performance from German Marquez. You can’t get on a run without solid starting pitching and that has been a challenge for the Rox of late. Jon Gray just hit the DL which means they have to keep guys like Ryan Castellani in the mix. His last start was poor and so short he actually pitched once in relief since.

L.A. on the run line is the smart play.


Game Totals Pick
The Rockies and Dodgers are both in the top ten in scoring so even though this game is not at Coors Field we should see some offense. Colorado’s splits are much better against lefties with an OPS that is fifty points higher. Both teams have power throughout the lineup and I am not expecting Castellani to hold up against that for too long. Urias can get a little wild so some walks and a homer or two are to be expected. This one could get a little action-packed like the 10-6 game they played on Friday.


Take the over.

 

[ConleyPicks]

Jerry Shottenkirk: My Late Pick 4 Ticket Sunday at Saratoga

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September 6, 2020 | By Jerry Shottenkirk
The Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes) is the headliner on the Sunday program at Saratoga. It’s also the kickoff race to the Late Pick 4, which includes two other stakes (G2 Honorable Miss and Lucky Coin Stakes) and a conditioned claiming race to end the day.

The suggested ticket is for $72 and follows a 3x4x3x4 pattern.

Here’s how I see it:

Race 9 (5:11 p.m. ET, G1 Spinaway Stakes)

LADY LILLY was all out and lasted for a victory in her career debut. Will take a leap to Grade 1 company but this is not a horribly difficult spot and it’s tough to question Steve Asmussen’s top juveniles at this point. The Hall of Fame trainer’s success with newcomers has been phenomenal this year.

BEAUTIFUL MEMORIES stumbled at the start and was pulled up shortly after the G3 Schuylerville. That’s clearly a throw-out race. Look at the 10-length win in her five-furlong debut at Churchill and you see something special.

GUANA CAY is a maiden, but she’s a Wesley Ward maiden. She improved in her second start and could benefit from the additional distance.


Race 10 (5:45 p.m. ET, G2 Honorable Miss Stakes)

COME DANCING is a millionaire and has won two of four over this strip. She was a non-threatening fourth in the G1 Ballerina and fits with these.

BLAMED set the pace and tired late in the G1 Phipps. Just missed in the Shine Again last time out and turns back to six furlongs. She’ll likely be strong on the front end at the distance.

BYE BYE J will play the role of stalker and has won three of her last five. Was impressive in the Saylorville at Prairie Meadows last out, stopping the timer in 1:08 4-5.

LADY’S ISLAND’s only Saratoga appearance produced a 13-length win. That came against starter allowance company and she has long moved on from that level. She’s a graded winner and just hasn’t run a bad one over the past few years.


Race 11 (6:17 p.m. ET, Lucky Coin Stakes)

SHEKKY SHEBAZ is well traveled and generally runs well almost everywhere he goes. Might be overplayed in the straight pool here but is worthy of inclusion in this sequence.

READYFORPRIMETIME is extremely fast but doesn’t need the lead to win, and that makes this truly dangerous in this spot.

GIDU got carried away early last time and weakened going longer, and by the looks of her form this 5.5 furlongs should work in her favor.


Race 12 (6:49 p.m. ET, claiming)

LEEWAY never got untracked last out against a better level and can be closer to the early action in this one. Can be a force in the stretch today.

FUN FINDER’s connections have tried to run her on turf but those scheduled races were washed off the grass and onto the main track. She should like the grass and can close to the pace.

SUPER CUTE fizzled in her last one, but was claimed by Maker, and that usually means improvement. Can make a run today.

POSITIVE SKEW closed mildly for fifth last time and likely will be pushed to get closer early. Was second two races back.

Here’s the suggested ticket for Saratoga’s Late Pick 4 on Sunday:

9) #3 Lady Lilly, #5 Beautiful Memories, #6 Guana Cay.
10) #1 Come Dancing, #2 Blamed, #5 Bye Bye J, #7 Lady’s Island.
11) #1 Shekky Shebaz, #7 Readyforprimetime, #9 Gidu.
12) #2 Leeway, #4 Fun Finder, #7 Super Cute, #10 Positive Skew.
50-cent Late Pick 4: 3-5-6 with 1-2-5-7 with 1-7-9 with 2-4-7-10. ($72)