At the Gate - Sunday
By Mike Dempsey
Despite having just a maiden win to his credit, Keen Ice ran down Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in deep stretch to pull off the upset in the $1.6 million Travers (G1), returning his backers $34.00 for the win.
The air seemed to come out of the balloon at Saratoga as American Pharoah suffered his first defeat since his debut last year. The colt did not seem to bring his “A” game but still battled on gamely in the stretch after having to put away the pesky Frosted, who weakened to finish third.
Keen Ice was my second choice and we knocked down the recommended exacta that paid $66.00 and the trifecta that returned $180.00.
The question now is whether American Pharoah will race again. One thing seems likely, and that the colt will not come back for another prep for the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).
If the colt toyed with his competition in the Travers as many expected he would, he may have made one more start, in either the Awesome Again or Jockey Club Gold Cup before the Classic.
That now seems unlikely meaning the colt will have to take on older in the Classic off a two-month break, not an easy task.
It all depends on how he comes out of his runner up finish, which was still a solid effort although not nearly as dazzling as his win in the Haskell Invitational (G1) at Monmouth Park four weeks ago.
My guess is Baffert and the Zayats do not want American Pharoah to go out without another shot at a win, and he will train up to the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).
Here is today’s opening race from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:
SAR Race 1 Clm $12,500 (1:00 ET)
2 Petrocelli 5-1
6 Springcourt 6-1
1 Johannesburg Smile / 1a Bellamy Brew 2-1
4 My Adonis 7-2
Analysis: Petrocelli set the early fractions and weakened inside the final furlong to finish third last out at this distance for this tag in his first start off the claim by the DiPrima barn. Two back he was a game second for a $16,000 tag, beaten just 3/4 of a length of the top spot. Rosario sticks and this guy owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers and hope here breaking from the rail is that Rosario shakes loose early.
Springcourt made a mild late rally to finish fourth last out for a $16,000 tag in his first start off the claim by the low profile Figueroa barn. The gelding has been claimed seven times in his last 10 starts. blinkers are added today and this guy is usually in the mix, landing in the money in five of his seven starts this year without picking up a win. Looks as if he will be a decent price in this spot.
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 2,6 / 1,2,4,6
TRI: 2,6 / 1,2,4,6 / 1,2,4,5,6
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:
SAR Race 8 OClm $62,500N2X (4:55 ET)
2 Juba 7-2
10 Blame Jim 6-1
4 Ocean Knight 3-1
3 Doc Almon 8-1
Analysis: Juba set the early fractions while down along the inside and battled on gamely in the stretch, coming out and interfering with a foe inside the final furlong and DQ'd from second to third. The racing strip that day was playing to outside stalkers and closers. The colt was making his first start off a three-month break and figures to move forward off that effort. He earned a solid fig three back beating Alw-1 foes at the Big A and the effort was flattered when the runner up Matterhorn was a next out winner.
Blame Jim dueled for the early lead through sharp fractions and weakened to finish fourth last out in the Jersey Shore (G3). He was a good second two back and fourth three back in the Chick Lang at Pimlico in a highly graded race that produced four next out winners, two of them winning stakes. This guy owns solid early and mid pace numbers and the 6-1 morning line looks generous.
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 2,10 / 2,3,4,10
TRI: 2,10 / 2,3,4,10 / 2,3,4,9,10
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Del Mar:
DMR Race 3 The Torrey Pines G3 (3:11 PT)
1 Stellar Wind 6-5
2 Big Book 5-2
4 Rattataptap 3-1
3 Roksana 8-1
Analysis: Stellar Wind is going to be tough here if she runs back to her game win in the Summertime oaks (G2) last out at Santa Anita. The runner up Tara's Tango came back to beat Alw-1 optional claimers in her next outing on Aug. 5 here. She won three of her first four starts including the Santa Anita Oaks (G1) back in April.
Big Book steps outside of the state breds ranks for the first time here after winning her first three career outings. Last out she won the Cal bred Fleet Treat in a sharp effort. The runner up Kiss At Midnight came back to beat state bred Alw-1 foes in her next outing. The filly still appears to have some upside but runs into a toughie in our top pick who has more class.
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 1-1 or better.
EX: 1,2 / 1,2,4
TRI: no play
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Saratoga
R2: #7 Moss Code 12-1
R4: #4 Shes a True Beauty 8-1
R5: #1 Tahnee 10-1
R5: #5 Knit One Purr Too 15-1
R7: #2 Its All Relevant 8-1
R7: #6 Ballagh Rocks 12-1
R10: #1 Chocolatier / 1a Runway Giant 8-1
R11: #2 Puparee 10-1
Good luck today!
