Tioga: Sunday 8/17 Analysis
By James Witherite
DRF HARNESS
Best Bet: JK ENDOFANERA (7TH)
Race 1
(2) JOE DE FINO was a victim of traffic trouble last week, having been shuffled out of contention after a strong beginning. He’s earned minor checks against much tougher, and he figures to be a threat off a cover trip. (7) PRINCE MARATHON drops back to the bottom level after finishing an even fifth last out. He’s hit the board in three of his last four efforts against similar foes, and typically isn’t lacking for late pace off close tracking trips. (3) HOT LATTE finds an easier group, last winning in June against second-level distaff types. She’ll need to be close to the pace after showing fast enough miles to compete with the boys.
Race 2
(5) RUTHLESS ACE held sway for a 1:54 3/5 win at this level last week, hitting the board in four of his last six. He’s capable enough from on the lead, but can rally from far back as well, as he proved two back. Versatility puts him on top. (2) DUKE OF GANNON has hit the board in his last four starts, all against comparable groups throughout the state. A strong dispatch puts him in the hunt, provided he can stay clear on the far turn. (3) YOHANSBASTION MACH is another who works best as a tracker-presser, showing good staying power off first-over bids more often than not. He has more than held his own at this level.
Race 3
(1) FRENCH LAUNDRY won going away in his Kindergarten preliminary last out, echoing a strong pace-setting effort he gave in his career debut. Muscles Yankee colt has no shortage of potential. (3) CRAZY WOW was a dominant winner at Vernon in track record fashion a couple weeks ago, drawing clear through the late stages. As long as he can stay on gait throughout, he’s a capable contender. (6) WHEELS AH SMOKIN has shown consistent closing ability, rallying off cover to threaten in his first two pari-mutuel starts before showing a 1:55 2/5 effort in the Kindergarten. He can rally from off the speed to round out the exotics.
Race 4
(1) JOSIE’S JOY looks for her third straight win, narrowly holding in her Kindergarten prelim in 1:55 3/5 after setting the tempo last time; best of those who show early speed. (5) ALLERAGE STAR will likely be involved from early on after winning her Kindergarten prelim in pace-setting fashion. She does show some closing ability, and can factor off a close tracking trip. (3) ALL THAT SPARKLES is a first-time starter for Jonas Czernyson, showing a pair of solid qualifiers at Pocono. She’s not lacking for late trot, as she chased from the pocket on both occasions. Capable enough.
Race 5
(2) PRECOCIOUS BEAUTY has returned to her old form, reeling off wins in EBC events in her last two races. She remains at Tioga, and has shown consistent late kick as a three-year-old. Can kick clear after pushing the pace. (1) UFFIZI HANOVER won the Fan Hanover at Mohawk in June, and has been a consistent stakes contender for her entire career. She’s amply versatile, but has found victory off tracking and stalking-closing trips more often than pacesetting or pressing efforts. (3) KATIE SAID rallied from off the cover for wins in her last two, scoring narrowly in a 1:49 4/5 Pocono race last week. Form has been hit-or-miss due to breaking issues, but her ability to brush puts her in contention at the right price.
Race 6
(6) RESOLVEwas a laboring fifth in the Hambletonian, tiring after chasing an extended stretch duel. Nancy Johansson has this Muscle Hill colt in fine form, just missing two back in a 1:52 effort. Lots to like, and the class edge doesn’t hurt. (1) AMPED UP HANOVER won the Townsend Ackerman on Hambletonian Day, and was just collared in a Currier and Ives division at the Meadows more recently. He’s done well enough in PA stakes, but has found the national spotlight too tough; capable enough here, for sure. (5) STARSABOVEALLERAGE was 7 of 10 ITM as a two-year-old, narrowly giving way against Ontario stakes company at London back in May.
Race 7
(7) JK ENDOFANERA chased He’s Watching in last week’s EBC, holding a clear second off his pocket trip. The NA Cup winner can sustain from the lead, or can rally well off cover as he did at Mohawk. Horse to beat. (1) DOO WOP HANOVER flattened off a strong three-wide push in the NJ Classic, only beaten by 1-1/2 lengths in a 1:50 effort. That’s the slowest mile he’s shown since May, but 1:49-range efforts have proven to be not enough against the top colts on the circuit. Can figure well here with an inside tracking trip. (5) HEMINGWAY faces a much tougher group than he’s ever seen, but has been 11 of 14 ITM in his short career. Form is a definite plus, and he’s consistent enough to be able to stalk along for a minor share.
Race 8
(4) JOLENE JOLENE chased for second in the Merrie Annabelle, rallying well off cover from far back. This consistent closer may end up with a pressured pace to close into, with #3, #5, and #6 all potentially showing speed. (6) RULES OF THE ROAD broke in her Kindergarten prelim, but rallied well from off the pace to take second in her prior effort. While she’s hit the board as a stalker-closer, she is capable of showing speed, too. (5) CRUNCHESS FINALE has been a standout freshman in Indiana, but made breaks in recent efforts. A clean start puts her right into contention, but be sure to judge value accordingly.
Race 9
(4) FATHER PATRICK was 6 for 6 on the year before breaking at the start of the Hambletonian, but his prior dominance in the division sent him off as the 2-5 favorite. He has no trouble on the 5/8 mile track, having won the Beal and multiple PA Sire Stakes races. He’s the one to beat. (3) DATSYUK also broke in the Hambletonian, but hit the board in his other 7 career starts, winning a pair of PA Sire Stakes races as well. He’s talented enough to contend, and may well benefit from a close tracking trip. (5) DD’S HITMAN faces a somewhat stouter group after a 1:53 Townsend Ackerman win, rallying late to just prevail. He’s more comfortable without hopples, and Åke Svanstedt may well have found the key to this son of Donato Hanover.
Race 10
(4) DYNAMITE DAME just missed in her Kindergarten prelim at the Meadowlands, cashing for second in the NJ Sire Stakes final in her prior start. Nifty Norman trainee is well on her way. (3) CRAZY BEAUTIFUL stayed on for third from a tracking trip in the Kindergarten, but her 1:55 3/5 mile was the fastest of any in this field to date. She’s got the speed edge, but could benefit from a closer stalking trip to make better use of it. (6) DYNAMITE DAISY was even in two NYSS races, staying within two lengths at Saratoga in her last. Can track along for a minor share here.
Race 11
(1) HABITAT just held to win his Kindergarten prelim in a strong 1:54 2/5, recovering well from an early break in a past Tioga appearance. A clean start puts him on top yet again. (2) BROKEN RECORD won two Ocean Downs stakes events in as many starts, controlling the terms throughout and holding late. Capable enough if close up early. (3) SOUTHWIND MOZART gave way after setting the pace in his Kindergarten prelim, but has ample stakes experience in his fledgling career. Sub-1:58 efforts show promise in his ability to stay on for a small share.
w-thumbs!^
