Sunday 8/16/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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MLB

National League
Pirates @ Mets
Locke is 1-1, 6.53 in his last four starts (over 3-0-1).

Harvey is 3-0, 0.74 in his last four starts; under is 5-1 in his last six at home.

Pittsburgh won seven of last nine games (over 6-2-1). Mets won 12 of last 16 games, but lost last two in extra innings; four of last six stayed under. Pirates won eight of last nine games vs New York; seven of last eleven series games stayed under.

Diamondbacks @ Braves
de la Rosa is 4-0, 2.81 in his last five starts; six of his last eight went over.

Braves scored total of 13 runs in losing last ten Miller starts (0-3, 3.20 in last four); six of his last seven stayed under.

Arizona won four of last six games with Atlanta; over is 4-2-1 in last seven in series. D'backs won four of last six games, with four of last five going over total. Braves lost four of last five games; over is 7-3-1 in their last eleven.

Phillies @ Brewers
Phillies are 1-11 in last 12 Harang starts (1-8, 8.28 in his last nine- over 6-3).

Jungmann is 1-3, 4.64 in his last four starts; under is 4-1 in his home starts.

Road team won 10 of last 12 Philly-Milwaukee games, with Brewers winning last six; over is 4-2-1 in last seven series games. Phillies lost four of last five games; six of their last nine went over. Brewers lost five of their last eight.

Marlins @ Cardinals
Phelps is 0-5, 5.79 in his last six starts; under is 8-4 in his last twelve.

Cardinals won the last eight Martinez starts (1-0, 5.50 in last three); under is 11-1-1 in his last 13.

Miami lost its last six games with St Louis; under is 4-2-1 in last seven series games. Marlins won thee of last five games; nine of their last 12 went over total. Cardinals won eight of last ten games; under is 8-3-1 in their last 12.

Padres @ Rockies
Kennedy is 3-1, 2.90 in his last five starts; under is 9-2 in his last 11.

Rusin is 0-3, 5.72 in his last seven starts; four of his last six stayed under.

San Diego won its last seven games with Colorado, scoring 51 runs; Padres won four of last five games overall-- eight of their last ten went over. Rockies lost seven of their last eight games (over 6-0 in last six at home).

Reds @ Dodgers
DeSclafani is 2-0, 2.37 in his last three starts; under is 4-1-1 in his last six.

Greinke is 7-0, 1.27 in his last ten starts; under is 8-3 in his last 11.

Cincinnati lost eight of last 11 games; its last five went over. Dodgers won four of last five games; eight of their last ten games went over the total. Reds are 4-6 in last ten games against the Dodgers (last three went over).

Nationals @ Giants
Ross is 1-3, 4.30 in his last five starts; three of his last four stayed under.

Bumgarner is 5-1, 2.63 in his last six starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five.

Nationals lost six of last seven games; three of their last five stayed under. San Francisco won last three games, scoring 23 runs; four of their last six stayed under. Washington split its last eight games with the Giants; seven of last ten in series stayed under total.

American League
A's @ Orioles
Oakland lost last six Graveman starts (0-4, 6.75); five of his last seven starts stayed under.

Chen is 1-0, 2.92 in his last two starts; under is 16-2-1 in his last 19.

Oakland lost last five games, last two on walkoffs- five of their last eight games stayed under. A's are 5-7 in last dozen games with Baltimore- nine of last 12 went over total. Orioles won four of last five home games.

Bronx @ Blue Jays
Severino is 0-1, 3.27 in his first two MLB starts (over 1-1).

Toronto won last five Hutchison starts (3-0, 7.00), scoring 34 runs; five of his last seven went over.

Bronx won last two days to regain first place; eight of last ten stayed under. Toronto won 11 of last 13 games but lost last two; five of last seven stayed under- they've won five of their last eight games with New York, with five of last six staying under the total.

Mariners @ Red Sox
Nuno is 0-1, 6.00 in his two starts this season (over 1-1).

Owens is 1-1, 3.60 in his two starts (over 1-0-1).

Seattle lost last two days, allowing 37 runs; they lost last three road games, all of which went over total. Red Sox won five of last six home games, scoring 66 runs; their last six games overall went over. Boston won three of last four in series; over is 6-4 in last ten series games.

Rays @ Rangers
Smyly comes off DL to make first start since May 5; he is 0-1, 2.70 in his three starts (under 2-1).

Gallardo is 1-1, 6.57 in his last five starts; under is 8-3 in his last 11.

Tampa Bay split last eight games with Texas (over 5-2-1); Rays are 7-4 in last ten games- eight of last ten went over. Rangers won last three games, scoring 23 runs; five of their last eight went over the total.

Indians @ Twins
Carrasco is 1-0, 1.04 in his last three starts; seven of his last nine went over.

Milone is 0-2, 9.28 in his last three starts; under is 5-3-1 in his last nine.

Cleveland won four of last six games with Minnesota; over is 7-1-1 in last nine series games. Indians won five of last seven games overall; over is 5-2-1 in last eight. Twins lost nine of last 13 games; over is 7-2-1 in last ten.

Angels @ Royals
Santiago is 0-2, 6.33 in his last four starts; five of his last seven went over.

Ventura is 3-0, 4.32 in his last four starts; four of his last six went over.

Royals won nine of last ten games with the Angels; five of last seven went over total. KC won seven of its last nine games overall; five of last eight got over the total. Halos lost six of last eight games overall.

Tigers @ Astros
Boyd is 1-1, 2.92 in two starts for Detroit; three of his four starts went under.

Fiers is 0-2, 5.56 in his last four starts.

Tigers are 4-6 in last ten games with Houston; over is 3-3-1 in last seven series games. Detroit lost four of last six games; over is 4-4-1 in their last nine. Astros lost eight of last 11 games; six of last seven stayed under.

Interleague
Cubs @ White Sox
Haren is 1-2, 5.08 in his last five starts.

Sale is 1-2, 8.15 in his last three starts; over is 4-0 in his last four starts.

Cubs won 14 of their last 15 games overall; eight of last ten went over total. Pale Hose won three of last five, allowing 16 runs; over is 9-3 in their last 12. Cubs won first two games of this inner-city series, 6-5/6-3

Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
Pitt-NY-- Locke 12-10; Harvey 14-8
Az-Atl-- de la Rosa 14-9 (5-0 last 5); Miller 9-14 (0-10 last 10)
Phil-Mil-- Harang 6-14 (1-11 last 12); Jungmann 7-5
Mia-StL-- Phelps 5-13 (0-6 last 6); Martinez 18-3
SD-Colo-- Kennedy 10-11 (4-1 last 5); Rusin 3-9
Cin-LA-- DeSclafani 11-11; Greinke 16-7 (7-1 last 8)
Wsh-SF-- Ross 3-5; Bumgarner 14-9

A's-Balt-- Graveman 8-11 (0-6 last 6); Chen 14-8 (4-0 last 4)
NY-Tor-- Severino 0-2; Hutchison 16-7 (5-0 last 5)
Sea-Bos-- Nuno 1-1; Owens 1-1
TB-Tex-- Smyly 2-1; Gallardo 12-12
Clev-Minn-- Carrasco 14-9; Milone 7-7
LA-KC-- Santiago 12-10; Ventura 8-10
Det-Hst-- Boyd 1-3/1-1; Fiers 11-11/0-1

Chi-Chi-- Haren 11-12/1-1; Sale 13-9

Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
Pitt-NY-- Locke 5-22; Harvey 6-22
Az-Atl-- de la Rosa 6-23; Miller 4-23
Phil-Mil-- Harang 7-20; Jungmann 2-12
Mia-StL-- Phelps 6-18; Martinez 4-21
SD-Colo-- Kennedy 8-21; Rusin 4-12
Cin-LA-- DeSclafani 5-22; Greinke 6-23
Wsh-SF-- Ross 0-8; Bumgarner 5-23

A's-Balt-- Graveman 5-19; Chen 6-22
NY-Tor-- Severino 1-2; Hutchison 11-23 (6 of last 7)
Sea-Bos-- Nuno 2-2; Owens 1-2
TB-Tex-- Smyly 0-3; Gallardo 8-24
Clev-Minn-- Carrasco 12-23; Milone 2-14
LA-KC-- Santiago 6-22; Ventura 4-18
Det-Hst-- Boyd 2-4; Fiers 1-22

Chi-Chi-- Haren 3-23; Sale 8-22

Umpires
Pitt-NY-- Over is 4-2-1 in last seven Rackley games.
Az-Atl-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Segal games.
Phil-Mil-- Home team won last five Dreckman games.
Mia-StL-- Under is 9-4 in last thirteen Cuzzi games.
SD-Col-- Seven of last nine Bucknor games stayed under.
Cin-LA-- Over is 11-5 in last sixteen Estabrook games.
Wsh-SF-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Nelson games.

NY-Tor-- Five of last seven Emmel games stayed under.
Sea-Bos-- Under is 12-7 in Ripperger games this year.
A's-Balt-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Kulpa games.
Det-Hst-- Last three Eddings games went over the total.
LA-KC-- Home side won five of last six Wolcott games.
Cle-Min-- Under is 8-2-1 in last eleven May games.
TB-Tex-- Favorites won last five HGibson games.

Chi-Chi-- Home side won six of last eight Reyburn games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

PGA - Final Round Odds

The PGA Championship heads into the final day on Sunday as Jason Day has pulled into the lead. Day owns a two-stroke advantage over Jordan Spieth, while South African Branden Grace sits three shots behind Day. Dustin Johnson lead after the opening round, but a poor second round knocked him off the top of the leaderboard, while shooting a 4-under 68 on Saturday to trail by six strokes.

From a betting perspective, Day was listed at 12/1 odds to win the PGA Championship when the tournament began on Thursday, the second-highest favorite on the board behind Spieth, who began at 6/1.

The 27-year old Australian has turned into the favorite heading into Sunday at 23/20 odds (Bet $100 to win $115) to capture his first major championship. Spieth is well within striking distance to grab his third major championship of the season, while receiving favorable odds at 7/4 (Bet $100 to win $175).

Grace put together the best round of any golfer on Saturday by shooting an 8-under 64 to cut the deficit to three strokes at the top. Grace's best finish in a major was fourth in this season's U.S. Open, while seeking the 10th win of his professional career.

Odds to win 2015 PGA Championship (8/16/15)

Jason Day 23/20
Jordan Spieth 7/4
Justin Rose 13/2
Branden Grace 12/1
Martin Kaymer 18/1
Dustin Johnson 30/1
Tony Finau 75/1
Matt Jones 125/1
Anirban Lahiri 225/1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preseason Week 1 Essentials
By Tony Mejia

The NFL preseason gets a bad rap.

Sure, most veterans take only one game seriously and we’ll all be ready to be done with it before the month is up, but don’t sleep on its charms.

In the Hall of Fame game alone, Steelers LB Ryan Shazier and RB/WR Dri Archer attempted to atone for rough rookie years by attacking the first available opportunity. Minnesota showcased impressive depth and saw intriguing rookie WR/KR Stefon Diggs back up what he’s been doing in practices with an electrifying punt return on Sunday’s most memorable play.

There will be reasons to tune in for every single preseason contest even if you abstain from getting in any action.

It’s a misconception that trying to profit of the preseason is akin to throwing darts. You can do well if you isolate games where the coaching staffs have different agendas in regards to playing time or what they’re schematically looking to accomplish, not to mention general mismatches in terms of personnel depth.Here’s how Week 1 shakes out:

Sunday, Aug. 16

Indianapolis at Philadelphia (PHI -3.5): With the spotlight to themselves, we’ll get to see what the heavily scrutinized Chip Kelly and Chuck Pagano bring to the table in this first installment. The Eagles want to play fast above all else and averaged an NFL-best 32.7 points per game last preseason. Sam Bradford is likely to make his first in-game appearance since tearing his ACL in the third of last year’s exhibitions. Mark Sanchez, Matt Barkley and Tebow will entertain the country one way or another. Count on that.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Betting 101: Best ways to safely handicap the NFL preseason
By JASON LOGAN

So you want to bet NFL preseason football, do you?

Steering bettors away from the NFL’s unpredictable exhibition schedule is like trying to convince high school kids to wait until marriage, if you know what we mean. You aren’t going to convince them otherwise so you might as well preach about safe sex - or in this case safe betting habits.

We break down the best ways to handicap the NFL preseason slate and hope you don’t lose your shirt – and pants – by the time Week 1 rolls around:

Read everything

The great thing about the NFL preseason is that books and bettors are on the same level. Coaches don’t reveal their plans until usually the day before a game, and by that time odds have been up for a while. If you catch an online presser or read a quote from a coach spilling the beans on his starters’ playing time, you can quickly get down before the lines adjust.

Research is everything for preseason capping. Find out how many snaps the first teamers will get, what the focal point of the offseason is – offense or defense – and wager accordingly. Also, keep an eye on camp injuries or how veteran players are treating the tune-up games. Some star players go through the motions in August and ones limited by injuries won't risk going all out before the real games start.

A team that is trying to establish some momentum on the ground will likely run the ball a lot – therefore keeping the clock ticking and the final score Under the total. If a team is trying to fill roster spots in the secondary and is plugging in rookies and inexperienced player in its pass defense, than perhaps look at the other team to air it out and exploit those weaknesses.

QB depth

Much the way starting pitchers make up 90 percent of baseball handicapping, quarterbacks hold a similar value when betting on the preseason. It’s the most important position on the field and can single handedly make or break your bets.

Finding a team with depth at quarterback is the key for success during the exhibition schedule. The No. 1 passer will likely only take a handful of snaps in the first two games of the preseason, turning the offense over to the backups.

Look for teams with an experienced backup under center. Many clubs have veterans and former starters on the roster, guys who won’t be freaked out by the NFL’s big stage like rookie QBs and wet-behind-the-ears free agents. These vets can keep the chains moving and often excel against an opponent’s second and third-tier defense.

New coaches and schemes

The preseason is summer school for many NFL teams transitioning their playbook, whether that be with a new head coach, coordinator or just an overall flip in the way they do things.

New head coaches aren’t necessarily a red flag. They can often feel a little pressured to win in the preseason in order to impress the front office and fan base, which can give some teams added betting value. New coordinators, on the other hand, are working in different plays and schemes, which usually come with a learning curve.

Read up on how teams are adjusting to new systems and offenses, especially if there is a dramatic shift in gears, like speeding up with no-huddle attacks or going from a 4-3 defense to a 3-4. When these teams take on established coaches, who have implemented their systems for a while, there can be value going against those new faces on the sideline.

Preseason lines

Come the regular season, the infamous 3-point spread is everywhere. And while a field-goal line is a key number in football betting, it loses some of its stature in the preseason.

Teams are more likely to go for a two-point conversion or try their luck on fourth-and-short in the preseason than play it safe. Not only do the games not matter, but a fourth down gamble or two-point attempt is an extra set for the offense as it works toward the regular season.

Depending on how those rolls of the dice play out, the final score can either be closer than three points or well over it. It’s rare to see a preseason spread of more than three points with most bouncing between 1-2.5 points.

Week to week

For those looking to bet the closest facsimile of Week 1 action during the preseason, you may want to pass on the first two weeks of exhibitions and save your marbles for Week 3. That’s when starting players tend to log the most time, working the majority of the first half and sometimes into the third quarter.

Week 1 and 2 often has first teams playing limited snaps – depending on the team’s situation – and Week 4 is pretty much a craps shoot. Coaches are making their final cuts, players are fighting to stay on the roster, and the coordinators are tightening the final nuts and bolts of their playbooks.

For those bettors who like a challenge, Week 4 of the preseason could be the trickiest week of the entire NFL schedule – preseason, regular season and playoffs – to wager on.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Best and worst NFL preseason bets of the past 20 years
By JASON LOGAN

You’ve heard all the warnings when it comes to betting on NFL preseason football. But like smoking, drinking and eating fast food, you still do it anyway.

If you’re going to wager on these whacky-ass exhibition games, in which no one but the head coaches have any clue as to what the hell will happen, at least you should know which NFL teams have consistently cashed in during the preseason and which ones wane in the warm-ups.

Here are the two best and two worst NFL teams to bet during the preseason since 1995:

BEST PRESEASON BETS

Seattle Seahawks (47-29 SU, 45-28-3 ATS)

It doesn’t matter if it’s the preseason or the Super Bowl, the Seahawks are kicking ass and taking names. Seattle has been perfect in two of the past three – going 10-2 SU and ATS – and is 13-3 ATS going back to the 2011 tune-up tilts.

Expectations have never been higher – which could mean so are the preseason spreads - but that didn’t stop the Seahawks from cashing in during the regular season. Winners win – something Seattle backers have done at a 62 percent clip in the preseason since 1995.

New York Jets (46-29 SU, 42-32-1 ATS)

Looking for value come the preseason? Gang Green is your one-stop shop for postseason profits. New York has been inconsistent the past three summers going 1-3, 3-1, and 0-4 ATS in the past three preseasons.

This year, the Jets have Geno Smith and Ryan Fitzpatrick at the top of the QB depth chart – preseason betting’s equivalent to capping starting pitchers when betting baseball. The schedule features Detroit, Atlanta, the Giants and Philadelphia – all teams with established starters. Look for Fitzpatrick to challenge for the starting job, lighting a fire under the J-E-T-S in the preseason.

WORST PRESEASON BETS

Kansas City Chiefs (25-51 SU, 22-51-3 ATS)

Andy Reid cares about the preseason about as much as he does for counting carbs and hot yoga. But while the public consensus is “fade Reid in the preseason”, his recent teams haven’t been that bad.

Kansas City is a poor 3-5 SU/ATS in its first two preseasons Reid and the Philadelphia Eagles finished 6-2 ATS in their final two preseason schedule with Reid on the sidelines. Overall, however, the Chiefs have been a terrible play in August – covering just 30 percent of the time.

Oakland Raiders (35-40 SU, 30-43-2 ATS)

Misery loves company, and preseason bettors have suffered in the AFC West. Oakland joins Kansas City as the worst of the worst in exhibition play. The Silver and Black can’t seem to cover – no matter the time of year. Oakland is a dismal 4-8 SU and ATS.

However, there may actually be hope, at least as far as the preseason is concerned. The Raiders have a respectable QB in Derek Carr, as well as star wideout Amari Cooper - given they survive the preseason.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Auto: Pure Michigan 400
By Micah Roberts

Let's go to Michigan, again.

For the second time this season the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series travels to Michigan International Speedway’s wide 2-mile layout with only four races remaining before the Chase field is set. The one big difference from Sunday’s race and the one ran on June 14 is the set-up being used by all the teams.

In June, the teams ran a new aero package that was introduced at the beginning of the season. But after seeing some rather boring races on the 1.5-and 2-mile tracks, NASCAR changed some things up for a couple of races just to see if they could slow the cars down while also making the racing better.

At Kentucky, NASCAR mandated a new low-down force package and it turned out to be the best races of the season. At Indianapolis, they instituted a high-drag package where they raised the spoiler up three inches and the racing was ordinary -- to maybe even weak.

This week at Michigan they’ll be using that same high drag package from Indianapolis, and we‘ll just have to see if the racing will be better. The rain shortened Michigan June race won by Kurt Busch had 17 lead changes among 11 drivers, which looks competitive, but it really wasn't. Indy saw 16 lead changes among only six drivers.

Kyle Busch ended up winning at Indy with the high drag package, but it was Kevin Harvick who led a race high 75 of the 164 laps. Harvick’s domination under the regular package was part of the reason, I believe, NASCAR made changes.

But the funny thing is that despite leading so many laps this season his last win came at Phoenix in March. He’s only got two wins on the year. Four other drivers have two wins and two drivers have four wins, so as much as he's dominating the lap leader charts on these big tracks, he's not winning...on any of them since Las Vegas, the third race of the season.

However, I think that will change this week with Harvick finally getting back into victory lane. He won there in 2010 and had been runner-up in four straight races until getting shuffled to 29th in the rain delay before the race was called. Harvick led a race high 63 of the 138 laps in that race.

Carl Edwards leads the way with a track best 9.8 average finish, but he hasn’t had a top-five since 2011. The last of his two wins came in 2008.

Joey Logano has a track best 5.4 average finish in his past five starts, which includes a 2013 win. His 194 laps led over those five races are the most; Harvick is next with 126 laps led.

Greg Biffle is the active leader with four wins, but finished 36th in June during this awful display for Roush Fenway Racing. This is Jack Roush’s home track and no car owner has more wins at Michigan than his 13. His last win there came in 2013 with Biffle.

Jimmie Johnson has a very ordinary 16th-place finish over his career at Michigan and his only win came last spring.

I’m not going to put as much emphasis in the changes like I did for Kentucky, or even for Indy, so I’ll be keying on the meat and potatoes drivers that have been showing the most horsepower all season. However, over the past eight weeks we’ve the Joe Gibbs drivers get to the level Harvick is at while also seeing Hendrick Motorsports drop off a little bit.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #4 Kevin Harvick (5/1)
2) #78 Martin Truex Jr. (9/1)
3) #18 Kyle Busch (7/1)
4) #41 Kurt Busch (8/1)
5) #19 Carl Edwards (15/1)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Drivers to Watch - Michigan

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
Pure Michigan 400
Sunday, August 16th – 2:45 p.m. EDT
Michigan International Speedway, Brooklyn, MI

With just four more races until “The Chase for the Cup,” the drivers gear up for their second visit to Michigan this summer for the Pure Michigan 400. In June, when these racers first came to Michigan International Speedway, 11 different cars were able to lead at some point with Kevin Harvick leading the most (63), but it was Kurt Busch that ended up making a huge jump from his 24th pole position to take the trophy home.

This specific event has taken place since 1969 on the two-mile, D-shaped oval track that features 18-degree turns and has seen a different winner each year since 2004. Last year, it was Jeff Gordon who took the checkered flag for his second career win in the race and first since first doing so back in 1998. His time (2:49:16) was the slowest since 2009 and he will be joined in this field by just Greg Biffle as multiple time victors in this event. Last week, it was Joey Logano that took his second win of the year at Watkins Glen as he just beat out the scorching hot Kyle Busch, who was the runner-up after leading just three laps.

Let’s now look through some of the racers out there this week and find who may have a leg up on the competition.

Drivers to Watch

Jimmie Johnson (8/1) – Johnson has not necessarily dominated this track like he has many others, posting an average finish of 15.429 (10th-best) with just one win. He has raced well overall though, with the third-best driver rating (101.2) here while managing to have the second-fastest green flag speed (179.598 MPH). Johnson has four victories on the year, all coming before the beginning of June, and currently sits in fourth in the Sprint Cup Standings. With six Sprint Cup Series championships and 74 career wins under his belt, it is safe to a say that another win is coming soon after nine straight without one, and he should be somebody that everybody is keeping an eye on this week.

Matt Kenseth (8/1) – Kenseth owns the second-best driver rating (102.0) here thanks to two victories and another 13 top-fives while spending 76.6% of the time (3,125 laps) in the top-15 (second-most). He only has one top-10 in this event over the last four attempts, but is in the midst of a hot streak right now in which he has done no worse than seventh in this last five races. In that time he earned himself a nice win in the Poconos and is coming off of a fourth in Watkins Glen after starting way back in 26th. His last visit to the track came in June and he showed up nicely on that day, placing fourth and leading for three laps. Kenseth has had a ton of success here and will likely continue his recent strong performances again come Sunday afternoon.

Paul Menard (60/1) – It has been a consistent yet unspectacular season for 34-year-old Menard who is often in the 10-15 range at race’s end, but has shown some promise to take the checkered flag with a third in Talladega and a fourth in California. His recent success on this track will also certainly give him some confidence when the engines start on Sunday as he has been in the top-nine, including consecutive fourth-place finishes, in this event over the last three years and had one of his better showings (8th) when the racers came here back in June. Menard has just one career Sprint Cup Series win to his name, but is having his best career season as he looks to improve on his 2012 of 16th in the Sprint Cup Series standings after currently sitting in 11th.

Austin Dillon (100/1) – Dillon has flirted with victories in the past but has never been able to grab one despite finishing in the top-20 of the Sprint Cup Standings last year. The 24-year-old is certainly on the upswing as he gains more experience and in his last six races has been able to grab two top-10s while also putting up a 13th at Pocono a few weeks ago. When going at Michigan International Speedway in his career, Dillon has been great in the pole, starting at an average position of 13.6, but has not carried it over when the race starts with an average finish of 19.4. With his team doing well right now it would not be able to improve on his pole position this week and surprise many with his performance.

Greg Biffle (100/1) – The odds are just too high for a guy who has four career victories at Michigan despite the fact that he is in the midst of a subpar season in which he has just three top-10s over 22 starts. He has been able to get into the top-five in two of those high finishes, ending as the runner up in Charlotte after winning the Sprint Showdown and then also led two laps and grabbed a fifth at Pocono just a few weeks ago. Biffle has a series-best driver rating of 103.8 while spending an incredible 3,265 of his laps in the top-15 (80.1%, series-best). In this event since 2003, he has been huge with nine finishes in the top-10 as he comes off a 10th in 2014. This 45-year-old may not have too much left in the tank, but with another chance at “The Chase” on the line, he should perform well at a track which he has always performed well at.

Odds to win Pure Michigan 400

Kevin Harvick 4/1
Kyle Busch 7/1
Brad Keselowski 8/1
Jimmie Johnson 8/1
Joey Logano 8/1
Kurt Busch 8/1
Martin Truex Jr. 8/1
Matt Kenseth 8/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 12/1
Carl Edwards 15/1
Kasey Kahne 15/1
Denny Hamlin 18/1
Jeff Gordon 18/1
Kyle Larson 30/1
Jamie McMurray 60/1
Paul Menard 60/1
Tony Stewart 60/1
AJ Allmendinger 100/1
Aric Almirola 100/1
Austin Dillon 100/1
Casey Mears 100/1
Clint Bowyer 100/1
Danica Patrick 100/1
David Ragan 100/1
Greg Biffle 100/1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 100/1
Ryan Blaney 100/1
Ryan Newman 100/1
Trevor Bayne 100/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 100/1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NASCAR science project continues at Michigan
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

In a summer of unprecedented experimentation with rules packages by NASCAR, Sprint Cup teams return this weekend to the Michigan International Raceway with taller spoilers, extended front splitters, bigger belly pans and cars that run considerably hotter under a "high downforce" package.

Designed to pump up the amount of overtaking at the front of the field, adjusting rules for specific tracks continues to be a risky business undertaken by NASCAR officials. Hotter cars created some overheating issues for drivers earlier this summer at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway when "high downforce" was first used. Does the risk-taking indicate the sanctioning body is operating from strength by trying to improve the sport – or is it a sign of market weakness reflected by TV ratings and reduced ticket sales?

It's a bit of both. The two situations are connected.

NASCAR is operating from strength because it has TV contracts with Fox Sports and NBC Sports to distribute the Sprint Cup telecasts for the next ten years as well as supporting series. The income from these deals distributed to promoters, purses and the sanctioning body give NASCAR the breathing room to try new approaches to races even if they don't work or possibly alienate fans. On other hand, NASCAR and its participating teams must find a way to stem the tide of lower TV ratings and promoters must fill all the seats at stadia that have recently undergone sizeable reductions in capacity.

The new generation of stock car racing fans seems to find televised motor racing events less attractive than the preceding generation that accounted for impressive TV ratings. And the older generation of race fans seems to find the sport less interesting than the one they grew up with.

NASCAR is not alone in its dilemma. Formula 1, the leading motorsports franchise worldwide, and America's other two leading franchises – IndyCar and NHRA drag racing – are all suffering the same problem of declining TV ratings. And the pressure to improve is noticeable across the spectrum. Formula 1 recently considered the return of the highly dangerous mid-race refueling to spice up race strategy and competition before deciding against it. IndyCar and the NHRA each had an abrupt and unexpected departure by respective presidents this summer.

What can NASCAR fans expect from the ongoing experiment during the Michigan chapter this weekend?

By comparison to the 2.5-mile Indy track, which is a very high speed single groove circuit, Michigan's D-shaped oval has multiple grooves that enable drivers to choose different lines. At Indy, most of the overtaking took place on re-starts and most of the excitement came from three-wide ventures in mid-pack on those same re-starts. On its merits, the new package rated as mostly business as usual – except for hotter and slower cars.

Michigan has always offered a great TV perspective, if nothing else, due to cars taking different lines through its long corners at relatively high speeds. On Sunday, drivers can be expected to draft one another down the straights, then dive into different lines in the corners – as usual. Whether they'll be able to pass more often at the front of the field and during long green flag stints remains the outstanding question. On a day when weather is expected to be sunny and warm, will NASCAR's newly mandated side window vents be enough for drivers? Will the drive train of cars getting less air be a factor when it comes to durability?

There is a danger among NASCAR watchers of zeroing in on the current issue too tightly. The summer of experimentation started at Kentucky Speedway in June with the new "low low downforce" package. It resulted in a good race and an outstanding finish as Kyle Busch ran down leader Joey Logano. So this package, which will be used again at the Darlington Raceway in September, generally got the thumbs up from drivers and fans.

But what about this summer's "other" races? Starting after the off weekend following Michigan's rain-shortened race in mid-June, there have been races with outstanding finishes and/or dramatic action at Sonoma, Daytona (where Austin Dillon's wild ride at the finish was a little too dramatic), Pocono and Watkins Glen. The latter two, of course, saw "go for broke" gambits on fuel mileage that maintained the suspense until the final corner.

The latter two finishes are a direct result of the Chase to the Sprint Cup Championship rules introduced last season. Interestingly, when the superspeedway era first began in the 1960s, championships were less significant compared to who won the big races -- NASCAR's version of the Grand Slam, which later became the Winston Million in the 1980s. Alas, the times and context have changed in favor of the current Chase format (although the format change from the classic Latford points system probably cost some of the older generation of fans).

Under any championship format, NASCAR has always thrived by the star power of its leading drivers and their participation in winning streaks, feuds, stunning finishes and action-filled races including battles for the lead. Given that the feuds have been eliminated by corporate sponsors expecting drivers to avoid vendettas after fights temporarily break out, that leaves the other three options for judging what's worth watching – or reading about.

Due to Busch's amazing comeback (which also includes formerly suspended brother Kurt's second victory of the season at Michigan) there's been top line star power. Considering the constant action at Sonoma and Daytona and some unpredictable finishes, NASCAR is doing OK this summer by its own history if not by comparison to its own TV ratings and attendance. (Those ratings are down in part because Fox and NBC are each building new cable channels that currently have far fewer viewers than ESPN, which carried the bulk of last year's cable coverage.)

The one element missing that can help drive ratings are action-filled races with constant lead changes. It's not as if this type of racing never happens; it just doesn't happen often enough for the current generation of TV viewers and ticket buyers. This type of race was not exactly a fixture in the past. But the context is different for current race fans. Despite fields deep in name drivers, driving talent and tough competition from multiple manufacturers, fans want more from drivers and cars so often limited by modern aerodynamics.

Those aerodynamics are getting a major tweak at Michigan.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Kahne needs Sprint Cup win to earn Chase berth
NASCAR Wire Service
Distributed by The Sports Xchange

After wrecking out of the race for the second straight week and falling off the 16-driver Chase Grid last Sunday, Kasey Kahne knows what he has to do to make the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup.

"At this rate, we're going to need to win," Kahne said. "That's the only way we'll go into the Chase. We've got to get a little better. I need to get a little better."

Kahne has four races left to get that win, starting with Sunday's Pure Michigan 400 at Michigan International Speedway (2:30 p.m. ET on NBCSN).

The No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports driver has one victory at Michigan (June 2006) and believes he can adapt well to the high-drag, track-specific rule package that will be used there this weekend.

"There were times at Indianapolis when we were really quick with that package," Kahne said. "I know they're working hard to bring a little less drag and more downforce there for us, all four of us (at Hendrick Motorsports). So hopefully we can run good at Michigan and maybe get a win there."

Kahne finds himself in a position similar to where he was last year before the Chase. Too low in points to qualify without a victory, Kahne won the second-to-last race of the season at Atlanta to punch his ticket into NASCAR's postseason.

While Michigan has not been Kahne's best track historically, he has proven he can win at a variety of loops, with victories at 11 venues, including short and intermediate tracks and road courses.

"The main thing is that all of the equipment we get at Hendrick Motorsports is good enough to win every weekend," Kahne said. "We need to get on the ball here and do that, and I don't see any better weekend to do that than the next one."

BUESCHER ATTEMPTS TO REPEAT AT MID-OHIO

Chris Buescher continues to prove he can turn left and right.

The 22-year-old Texan finished third last weekend at Watkins Glen, highest among NASCAR XFINITY Series regulars, to extend his standings lead to 24 points over defending champion Chase Elliott and Ty Dillon. Buescher also outpaced road course ace Boris Said, as well as NASCAR Sprint Cup Series stalwarts Paul Menard and Kyle Larson.

Buescher gets to run another road course Saturday in the Nationwide Children's Hospital 200 at Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course (3:30 p.m. ET on NBCSN) -- a place where he earned his first career victory last season.

"Mid-Ohio is a track that we have been looking forward to all year," Buescher said. "There is a little extra pressure coming off of last year's win, but we have really good notes and I know we will have a fast Zest Mustang. We have good momentum leaving the Glen, and we just need to keep that rolling into the next few months."

Buescher's third-place finish at Watkins Glen was his first top-10 showing in five races. Despite his struggles, Elliott has failed to gain major ground on him.

He is prepared for another charge from Elliott and third-place Ty Dillon (24 points behind), noting the intensity will increase down the stretch.

"A lot of drama is what it sums up too," Buescher said. "It's gonna be wild. Points racing has a way of bringing out the emotion in everybody."

JONES SET FOR FIRST START IN HOME STATE

More than 600 miles away from NASCAR hotbed North Carolina, Michigan surprisingly has produced two of NASCAR's top current talents.

The Great Lakes State churned out 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series champion Brad Keselowski and is also the home state of up-and-coming star Erik Jones -- the winner of the most NASCAR national series races (five) before age 19.

Jones, following in Keselowski's footsteps, will race in his native state for the first time Saturday in the Careers for Veterans 200 at Michigan International Speedway (1 p.m. ET on FOX Sports 1).

"It's pretty special to me," Jones said. "I'm proud of where I'm from, and being able to race so close to home at this level is going to be special. For the last two years, everyone has been asking me when I'm going to get to race at Michigan, and this is the first year that I've been able to tell them that I'll be racing there."

Jones enters the race vying for the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series championship. He ranks third in the series standings, trailing Tyler Reddick by 16 points. This season, Jones has one win, seven top-five finishes and nine top-10s.

The Byron native wants to put on a show for the home crowd.

"I think any time you are at a level in NASCAR, you want to race at your home track," he said. "Michigan is obviously my home track and this will be the first time that I get to race there. It's only about an hour from the house I grew up in, and I went there quite a few times as a kid to watch races as a young fan. I'm excited that this time I'll be out on the track. Hopefully we can have a good run for all of my friends and my family that will be there to cheer me on."

NASCAR RACE WEEKEND GUIDE

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series

Race: Pure Michigan 400

Track: Michigan International Speedway

Date and Time: Sunday at 2:30 p.m. ET

On Air: NBCSN, 2 p.m. ET, MRN, SiriusXM Ch. 90

Distance: 400 miles (200 laps)

What to Watch For: Kyle Busch goes for his fifth win in the last eight races. ... Joey Logano will try to win his second straight race after earning his first victory since Daytona at Watkins Glen. ... Brad Keselowski will try to become the ninth active driver to visit Victory Lane in his home state. ... Defending race winner Jeff Gordon can secure a spot in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup with another triumph at Michigan. ... Clint Bowyer boasts nine consecutive top-10 finishes at Michigan, which matches the longest current streak by any driver at a track.

NASCAR XFINITY Series

Race: Nationwide Children's Hospital 200

Track: Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course

Date and Time: Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET

On Air: NBCSN, 3 p.m. ET, MRN, SiriusXM Ch. 90

Distance: 169.35 miles (75 laps)

What to Watch For: Defending winner Chris Buescher can add to his 24-point lead over Chase Elliott and Ty Dillon. ... Road course ace Alex Tagliani will try to get Team Penske its third straight win. ... Boris Said and Kenny Habul will compete for Joe Gibbs Racing for the second consecutive week. Said finished fourth at Watkins Glen, while Habul placed 29th. ... Daniel Suarez and Darrell Wallace Jr. will make their Mid-Ohio debuts as they continue to battle for the Sunoco Rookie of the Year.

NASCAR Camping World Truck Series

Race: Careers for Veterans 200 presented by Cooper Standard and Brad Keselowski's Checkered Flag Foundation

Track: Michigan International Speedway

Date and Time: Saturday at 1 p.m. ET

On Air: FOX Sports 1, 12:30 p.m. ET, MRN, SiriusXM Ch. 90

Distance: 200 miles (100 laps)

What to Watch For: It's a big weekend for Brad Keselowski Racing as its team sponsor hosts the Careers for Veterans 200 presented by Cooper Standard and Brad Keselowski's Checkered Flag Foundation. Series points leader Tyler Reddick and NASCAR Next alum Ryan Blaney will represent the team in the No. 19 and No. 29 Fords. ... Defending race winner Johnny Sauter will go for a Michigan repeat. ... The last 10 NASCAR Truck Series races at Michigan have produced 10 different winners. ... Alex Bowman, a 22-year-old full-time NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver, will make his Truck Series debut for JR Motorsports.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Biffle, Roush Fenway running out of chances to make Chase
By Reid Spencer
NASCAR Wire Service
Distributed by The Sports Xchange

BROOKLYN, Mich. -- Greg Biffle is feeling the stress.

Since the Chase for the Sprint Cup format was introduced in 2004, there has never been a playoff in NASCAR's premier series without a Roush Fenway Racing driver in the field.

That could change this season unless Biffle or one of his RFR teammates (Ricky Stenhouse Jr. or Trevor Bayne) manages to win one of the next four races. Currently 18th in the Sprint Cup standings, Biffle isn't in position to land a Chase spot on points, and Stenhouse (27th) and Bayne (28th) are even farther out of the picture.

The good news is that Biffle is the series leader among active drivers with four victories at Michigan International Speedway, site of Sunday's Pure Michigan 400 (2:30 p.m. ET on NBCSN).

The bad news, from Roush Fenway's standpoint, is that Sprint Cup cars this weekend are running the same high-drag package first tried last month at Indianapolis, where Biffle finished 19th, Stenhouse 35th and Bayne 40th.

Accordingly, Biffle knows the organization faces a daunting challenge trying to maintain a perfect record of qualifying for the Chase.

"We have four races and have to win one of them to get in the Chase," Biffle said Friday before opening Sprint Cup practice at MIS. "We have been very fortunate to make the Chase six of the last seven years (Biffle individually).

"We feel the pressure, trust me. This is a great racetrack for us. We just have to get it right (on Friday) and tomorrow in practice. Our car has to have the speed to be able to pull off a win. We felt like we have been close. Charlotte, last week and Pocono were all opportunities for us. This certainly could be a weekend for us."

SPRINT CUP RACES WHET JONES' APPETITE

Beyond planning to run the NASCAR Xfinity Series for Joe Gibbs Racing next year, 19-year-old phenom Erik Jones doesn't have any specifics about his 2016 deal.

But two trips in a Sprint Cup Series car -- the first in a relief role for Denny Hamlin at Bristol, the second as a sub for injured Kyle Busch at Kansas -- have heightened Jones' eagerness to drive in NASCAR's top series.

"JGR (Joe Gibbs Racing) is working on a lot of things -- a lot of things I honestly don't know," said Jones, who is competing for the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series title this year. "I'm kind of waiting to see how the rest of the year progresses.

"I do know that I'll be racing Xfinity next year, but I don't know sponsor, number or any kind of information like that. No plans this year (for additional Sprint Cup races), but I hope I get another shot soon. It was fun."

Jones is currently third in the Truck Series points standings, trailing leader Tyler Reddick by 16 points and two-time defending series champion Matt Crafton by five.

BEATING THE HEAT AT MICHIGAN

Based on concerns raised by drivers with respect to high temperatures in the driver compartments at Indianapolis, where the high-drag aerodynamic package was first used, NASCAR is mandating that three of the 14 available ducts channeling air into the cars remain open and without dampers.

To Jeff Gordon, there was a noticeable improvement.

"It seems to be helping on the track," the four-time Sprint Cup champion said. "It seems like it's not quite as hot, but it's going to be hotter on Sunday. But there is just not as much air moving underneath the car and around the car, which can make that engine compartment a little hotter, too.

"There are so many factors -- fuel mileage, pit strategy, track position, aerodynamics and restarts. It's going to be wild."

NASCAR AFTER THE LAP RETURNS

NASCAR After The Lap, sponsored by Ford and Sprint, will return to Las Vegas for its seventh consecutive year. The event will once again take place at the Pearl Palms Concert Theater inside the Palms Casino Hotel on Dec. 3.

Part of the Champion's Week celebration, NASCAR After The Lap gives fans the chance to see the 16 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers field questions and trade barbs in an unrestrained, off-the-cuff atmosphere.

Additionally, from Aug. 14 through Nov. 22, fans entering the NASCAR After The Lap sweepstakes will have the opportunity to win a 2016 Ford F-150 and two winners will receive an all-inclusive VIP trip for two to Las Vegas to attend the festivities.

Event tickets are priced at $20 and go on sale Sept. 21. For fans unable to attend, NASCAR.com will offer a live stream of the event.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

EPL Best Bets - Week 2
By Chris David

Week 1 Recap

The opening weekend of the Premier League is in the books and the biggest story took place at the Emirates Stadium where West Ham United stunned Arsenal 2-0 as an eye opening 15/1 underdog. A lot of the blame was directed at Gunners new goal keeper Petr Cech, who wasn’t in top form.

Including that loss, favorites managed to post a 4-3 record in Week 1 to go with three draws.

The one tie that came as a surprise occurred at Stamford Bridge as Swansea City earned a 2-2 draw with the defending champions of the Premier League, Chelsea. The Blues were down to 10 men after goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois was sent off with a red card early in the second half and were fortunate not to sacrifice the points.

Total players watched the ‘over’ go 6-4 in the opening weekend.

Future Update

Prior to last week’s action, oddsmakers had Chelsea as the top betting choice (3/2) to win the 2015-16 Premier League championship.

After the opening weekend, the offshore outfit has flip-flopped the Blues with Manchester City, who are now a 9/5 (Bet $100 to win $180) favorite. Chelsea is 2/1 while Arsenal (9/2) and Manchester United (5/1) are still considered contenders.

Bettors should make a note of Arsenal’s opening setback because only three teams have won the Premier League Championship after losing its season opener. The last to do so was Manchester United in the 2012-13 campaign.

Newbies

The three promoted clubs went 0-1-2 in their opening weekend.

Norwich City at Sunderland: Each club lost by two goals last week and you would have to believe defense will be stressed in this spot. Prior to Norwich’s relegation at the end of the 2014, these teams met six teams and Sunderland went 1-2-3 during that span.

Watford vs. West Bromwich Albion: Watford had a great chance to secure three points at Everton last week but they gave up leads twice, the last one coming in the 86th minute. West Brom was embarrassed on Monday to Man City and knowing they have Chelsea on deck, the sense of urgency is high.

Bournemouth at Liverpool: The Cherries will play their first Premier League road fixture on Monday at Anfield against a Liverpool squad that stole a win in its opener. Bournemouth had chances to score last week but lacks finishing. The newbies like to spread the field and counter, which could both help and hurt them in this spot.

Top 4

Manchester United played on Friday and notched its second straight 1-0 victory and sit atop the live table with six points. The Reds haven’t been overwhelming by any means but it’s worth noting that it took Louis can Gaal’s team seven games to get above this number in the EPL last season. Plus, they only had two 1-0 victories last season and that was with goalkeeper David De Gea, who has been left out both games thus far.

The three remaining elite teams all play on Sunday, which includes a battle between Chelsea and Manchester City from Ethiad Stadium.

Arsenal at Crystal Palace (Sunday, 8:30 a.m. ET, NBCSN)

After being embarrassed at home last Sunday, bettors could be hesitant to back Arsenal (-140) as a road favorite in Week 2, especially against a confident Crystal Palace squad.

Last week, coach Alan Pardew and company notched a 3-1 road win over Norwich City but the result could be a tad misleading. Norwich won the possession battle (63-37) and were certainly more aggressive when it came to shots (17-11). And if it wasn’t for a high boot foul that took a goal off the board, this game could’ve easily ended 2-2.

Last season, Palace struggled at home with a 6-3-10 record while getting outscored 27-21.

Arsenal has won all four of their meetings with Crystal Palace since the club moved back up to the EPL, outscoring them 8-2 over this span.

Chelsea at Manchester City (Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET, NBCSN)

The odds on this matchup make you believe that Manchester City (+110) should secure three points and Chelsea’s (+280) best effort would only earn them a draw (+250).

Chelsea’s defense didn’t look great against Swansea last Saturday and despite netting two goals, which weren’t exactly superb, the offense lacked any flow. The Blues won’t have Courtois available due to last week’s booking, which means

Man City had a few early fortunate bounces too in Week 1 as they defeated West Bromwich Albion 3-0 on the road. Considering they controlled possession (69-31) and managed 20 shots (7 on goal), it’s fair to say they didn’t capitalize as much as they could have.

Last season, the pair played to a pair of 1-1 draws in the Premier League meetings.

The total has held steady (2.5, Under -20) all week at most betting shops. The ‘under’ has gone 6-2 in the last eight encounters and neither team has cracked more than two goals during this span.

Fearless Predictions

Despite going 1-1 last weekend, the bankroll started off in the black albeit for just 30 cents ($30). Let’s hope the momentum carries over in Week 2.

Straight – West Bromwich Albion (+240) over Watford – 1 Unit

Straight – Arsenal (-150) over Crystal Palace – 2 Units

Straight – Over 2.5 (-135) Liverpool-Bournemouth – 1 Unit

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dream has over bettors sleeping easily
Justin Hartling

The Atlanta Dream are cashing over tickets all over, with the team going 7-1 over/under in their past eight contests.

The Dream and their opponents are averaging a combined 172 points per game in their past eight. On the season as a whole, Dream games have averaged 157.5 ppg.

The current total is set at 158.5 when the Dream host the Connecticut Sun Sunday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Fever heating up for bettors against the spread
Justin Hartling

The Indiana Fever are turning it on as of late, going 5-1 straight-up and against the spread in their past six contests. In the victories, the Fever have outscored their opponents by an average of 15.4 points per game.

The Fever already had the second ranked offense in the WNBA, scoring 78.4 ppg, but have been averaging 83.8 ppg in their past six.

Indiana is currently +5.5 when they visit the Phoenix Mercury Sunday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

AFL Betting Recap - Week 20
By Joe Williams

League Betting Notes

-- Favorites went 6-0 straight up in Week 20
-- Favorites went 5-1 ATS in Week 20
-- Home/road teams posted a 3-3 SU record in Week 20
-- Home/road teams posted a 3-3 ATS record in Week 20
-- The 'under' went 4-1-1 in Week 20

Team Betting Notes

-- Philadelphia (15-3) already had the division and home-field advantage sewn up, but they continued to roll with a road win in Cleveland (8-10). The Soul wrapped up the regular season 4-1 ATS over the past five games.

-- Despite the loss and under .500 record, the Gladiators are headed back to the playoffs, too. In fact, Cleveland and Philadelphia will meet next weekend in the City of Brotherly Love. The Soul went 3-0 SU/ATS against the Glads in the regular season.

-- For the second straight season an AFL expansion team is headed for the postseason. Las Vegas (5-12-1) lost to Spokane (7-11) in the finale, but they still qualify and have a date with San Jose (17-1). The Outlaws were 0-3 SU/ATS against the SaberCats this season.

-- Arizona (14-4) topped Portland (5-13), causing the Thunder a spot in the postseason. The Rattlers will host SpoSho next weekend in a 2-3 matchup. Arizona was 2-1 SU/1-2 ATS in three meetings with Spokane this season, including a 60-43 win in the only meeting in Arizona.

-- Orlando (12-6) posted a 59-40 win against Tampa Bay (7-11). The Predators won their final five games, and they covered in each of the past four. They'll host Jacksonville (10-8) next weekend in a 2-3 matchup. The Sharks were 1-2 SU/ATS in three meetings with the Preds this season. Orlando won the only home game against J'ville Aug. 1 by a 64-50 count.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

AFL 2015 Playoff Results

Overall Betting Results (Updated 8.16.15)

Conference Semifinals
Friday, Aug. 14
Away Home Score ATS Result Total Result
Portland San Jose (-23.5) 55-28 Favorite Under (99.5)

Saturday, Aug. 15
Away Home Score ATS Result Total Result
Cleveland Philadelphia (-14.5) 47-35 Underdog Under (107.5)
Jacksonville (+3.5, ML +125) Orlando 55-33 Underdog Under (113.5)
Spokane Arizona (-17.5) 72-41 Favorite Over (103.5)

Conference Championships
Saturday, Aug. 22
Away Home Score ATS Result Total Result
Arizona San Jose - - -

Sunday, Aug. 23
Away Home Score ATS Result Total Result
Jacksonville Philadelphia - - -

ArenaBowl XXVIII
Saturday, Aug. 29
Away Home Score ATS Result Total Result
TBD TBD - - -

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Sunday
By Mike Dempsey

Eleven years after jockey Jamie Spencer cost me with his bonehead ride aboard Powerscourt in the 2004 Arlington Million (G1), the jockey was disqualified yet again, this time aboard Secret Gesture in the $700,000 Beverly D. (G1) on Saturday at Arlington Park.

There was little doubt that Secret Gesture was the best in the Beverly D., but she drifted out in deep stretch, interfering with eventual third place finisher Stephanie’s Kitten, and the stewards had little choice but to take her down.

Spencer was aboard Powerscourt in the 2004 Arlington Million as my top pick and was disqualified for interference in the stretch and moved from first to fourth. That cost me the exacta, trifecta and the NTRA Pick 4, and still causes me nightmares each summer right around the Arlington Turf Festival.

So now, Spencer has been disqualified from a $1 million race and a $700,000 race, both grade 1 races, and at the same track.

It might be a good idea if Spencer just burned his passport and stopped coming to the U.S., where he tends to ride more like a 10-pound apprentice than an experienced top jockey.

It did not cost us this time, as I did not really like Secret Gesture, at least in part because of the jockey. If I had backed her, I probably would have left my office today wearing a straightjacket.

We had a terrible day at the Spa on Saturday, by far the worst Day of the meeting. We have some making up to do on Sunday with a 10-race card featuring the Saratoga Special (G2) for two-year-olds.


Here is today’s opening race from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:

SAR Race 1 Md Sp Wt (1:00 ET)
1 Malibu Preacher 2-1
5 Andalusite 3-1
3 Wild Dynaformer 7-2
6 Britannia's Moat 8-1

Analysis: Malibu Preacher chased the early pace and finished evenly in a third place finish last out going 1 3/8 miles in his first trip over the Spa grass. He made a belated late run to finish fifth two back in his first go on turf. He is by Malibu Moon our of a stakes placed Saint Ballado mare that has dropped a couple of winners including one turf winner, top earner stakes winner Speechify ($200,245). The Weaver trainee is in light with the capable bug Cancel and looks headed in the right direction form wise.

Andalusite weakened to finish eighth last out exiting the same race as our top pick. The colt has put in several efforts that look good enough to be competitive here including a good runner up finish three back at 1 3/8 miles. He is better than he showed last out for the Donk barn that has been chilly the past couple of months. The colt is out of the stakes winner Avery Hall ($182,500) who has dropped a couple of turf winners including stakes winner Sheza Smoke Show ($150,644).

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 8-5 or better.
EX: 1,5 / 1,3,5,6
TRI: 1,5 / 1,3,5,6 / 1,3,5,6,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:

SAR Race 9 The Saratoga Special G2 (5:29 ET)
2 Holding Gold 7-2
1 Exaggerator 5-2
5 Saratoga Mischief 9-5
6 Mid Life Crisis 5-1

Analysis: Holding Gold was a good looking maiden winner in his debut over the polytrack at Woodbine for the Mark Casse barn. The colt earned the top last out speed fig in the effort. Now he switches to dirt and if the two local drills are any indication, he should take to the new surface just fine. The colt is out of the stakes winner In the Gold ($745,816).

Exaggerator made a good late rally to break his maiden last out in his second career outing. He checked in fifth in his debut two back at 28-1 in a race won by Nyquist, who returned to win the Best Pal (G2) in his next outing on Aug. 8. The $110,000 purchase is by Curlin out of a stakes placed Vindication mare that has dropped two other foals to race, both winners.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,2 / 1,2,5
TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Del Mar:

DMR Race 9 The Solana Beach Hcp (6:10 PT)
2 Smoove It 5-2
3 Mangita 12-1
5 Chati's on Top 7-2
6 Heat Du Jour 6-1

Analysis: Smoove It is back with state breds after stalking the early pace and tiring to finish 10th last out in the Gamely (G1), a race that has produced three next out winners. Two back at a mile our top pick was a game second in the Wilshire (G3), beaten a tough nose in a four way photo. She has landed in the money in eight of her 10 career starts on turf and figures to bounce back with the freshening and the class drop.

Mangita came back off a 2 1/2 month break with a fourth against Alw-2 optional claimers. Two back in the state bred Fred's Valentine she was only beaten three lengths in a fourth place finish. She should move forward off her last outing and looks as if she is going to be a decent price in this spot.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 2,3 / 2,3,5,7
TRI: 2,3 / 2,3,5,7 / 2,3,5,6,7

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Saratoga
R1: #6 Britania’s Moat 8-1
R6: #11 Width 8-1
R7: #2 Moonlight bandit 8-1
R8: #6 Spuntastic 10-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Century Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 2 - Post: 2:20 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 55 - Purse:$5800 - MAIDENS 5YO & YOUNGER


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 2 CENALTA ECLIPSE 4/1


# 6 CANELO 8/1


# 3 OUTLAWBLOWNTHEWIND 2/1


CENALTA ECLIPSE positively appears to be the standardbred to beat this time. Seems to have a respectable class advantage based on the company he has raced against. Certainly did like this gelding's last race. Ran a solid 55 TrackMaster Speed Rating. Major contender. The 2 hole sports an above average win statistic at Century Downs. CANELO - Have to make Cullen the play here if only for the last thirty days win statistic. Big likelihood for the score. OUTLAWBLOWNTHEWIND - This colt getting the win wouldn't be impossible, a chance. This race horse looks very good. Take a good look at the 56 avg TrackMaster Speed Rating.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Tioga Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 13 - Post: 5:30 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 73 - Purse:$18788 - ARTHUR TOMPKINS MEMORIAL STAKE 2 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 3 JACK VERNON 9/2


# 7 STAYING FOCUSED 3/1


# 1 TREASURE KEYS K 12/1


Feel pretty confident putting some profits down on JACK VERNON. Worth considering here on the basis of the rankings in the speed rating department alone. Top players love to play the driver of this colt - great win percentage lately. STAYING FOCUSED - Tremendous driver Miller should find the pace of today's outing to this colt's liking - could be a good bet. Fantastic in the top three stat for Miller and this horse. A nice chance to get the top prize. TREASURE KEYS K - Worth a look here looking at the rankings in the TrackMaster speed fig department alone. Is a very compelling choice given the 76 speed rating from his most recent race.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Valuline at Ruidoso Downs

Today's Most Likely Winner Is at:
Ruidoso Downs, Race 7 (Sunday August 16, 2015)

FANCY PACMAN


RUI-7 5.5f DIRT Six Horses
"A" MCL 6,500 3-4-5Y $7,000
P# ex p3 p4 t s ML WP TVL

1 FANCY PACMAN 3/2 45% 6/5