Blue, basically I look at prior history of both teams totals this year (on road or at home), SP ERA & WHIP, available bullpens, offense, defense. Using these I devise a likely total and the percentage of it being accurate. I weigh it against the line total and odds. Depending on how much value there is seperating my figure and the line, that is how I rate the play. Obviously it didn't work well today, but then again nobody is perfect or everyone on this forum would living like a king.