NBA Finals Game 2 Preview
By Tony Mejia
NBA Finals - Game 2 - Warriors lead 1-0
Cleveland at Golden State (-6.5/208.5), 8:00 p.m. ET - ABC
Every playoff series is about adjustments. Thursday night’s Game 1 reaffirmed the superiority of Golden State’s depth, a huge reason it won the 2015 NBA Finals over the depleted Cavaliers.
Losing a game where they limited Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson to 20 combined points could be viewed as disconcerting by the Cavs behind closed doors, but there is actually plenty for the to build on in spite of a 104-89 loss that saw them outscored 30-21 in the fourth quarter.
With an extra day to prepare for Game 2, head coach Tyronn Lue and his staff can now devise some new strategies to try and ensure that Shaun Livingston and Leandro Barbosa, who combined for 31 points on 13-for-15 shooting, don’t go off again. Cleveland coaches have examined what worked lineup-wise and what didn’t, so we’ll likely see a far different substitution pattern out of Lue.
Channing Frye, who had played a major role in the sweep of Atlanta and conference finals win over Toronto, got just seven minutes and took one shot. He averaged 13.8 points in 19.3 minutes per game against the Hawks in the series where the Cavs looked their best, firing up 3-pointers and opening things up with a faster pace. Against the Raptors, he shot 63 percent and averaged 9.0 points per game, so Lue lamented being unable to get him more minutes to allow him to impact the game more. The first-year head coach has already divulged that Frye will be out there more often on Sunday, hoping his ability to space the floor will punish double-teams the Warriors consistently sent at LeBron James.
James will have to make adjustments himself. Despite 23 points, 12 rebounds and nine assists, there were instances where he could’ve been more aggressive. He looked to put the ball on the ground and get to the rim at times, but also had instances where he was isolated against the much smaller Curry and failed to get a bucket. Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love combined for 43 points on 39 field goal attempts in part because James made an effort to get both going, but since the Cavs didn’t get their desired result, it remains to be seen whether their approach changes.
J.R. Smith attempted just three shots, all 3-pointers, despite playing 36 minutes. Only Matthew Dellavedova (-19) and Iman Shumpert (-15) had a worse plus/minus than Smith (-13), as none of James wing partners were able to get it going. Richard Jefferson, who is expected to play a large role in this series due to his versatility, was also just 1-for-3. Better ball movement must lead to one of those guys breaking out to help field a more balanced offense.
NBA expert Kevin Rogers expects to see changes yield results for Cleveland given recent history in Game 2.
“A split through the first two games of the NBA Finals has been the norm recently as each of the past seven years we haven’t seen a team go up 2-0 in this round. In four of those instances, the team that won Game 2 actually lost the series opener by double-digits, so there is value in Cleveland on the money-line at +230,” Rogers said.
“LeBron James-led teams have done a solid job of rebounding from a loss in playoff series openers. As a member of the Heat and Cavaliers, James has won nine straight Game 2’s of a playoff series after dropping Game 1, including three straight victories in this situation in the NBA Finals. In fact, all three wins came in the role of a road underdog, winning at Golden State (2015), San Antonio (2014), and Oklahoma City (2012).”
Although this is not a must-win considering the series shifts to Cleveland for games on Wednesday and Friday, James wants this Game 2 in Oakland badly and was able to steal it in OT last year in spite of the absence of Irving and Love. Since Game 1 got away from the Cavs late in the third quarter and early in the fourth with James on the bench, perhaps we’ll see him tell Lue that he wants to play closer to all 48 minutes here.
LeBron played a season-high 46 minutes in the Game 4 loss in Toronto during the Eastern Conference finals, but averaged 45.8 minutes against the Warriors in the 2015 Finals, which included playing 50 minutes in last year’s Game 2. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him sit just a few minutes here, so keep that in mind when handicapping any James-related props.
Steve Kerr is looking to become only the second head coach in NBA history to win titles in his first two tries, a feat that dates back to 1948-49 when John Kundla won with the Minneapolis Lakers. Despite Thursday’s victory, he saw plenty that can be tweaked and improved upon, starting with the Splash Brothers shooting a combined 8-for-27, including 4-for-13 from 3-point range. Sure, both Curry and Thompson had off nights, but Kerr always feels he can do more to make their job easier, ensuring cleaner looks.
NBA expert Chris David is counting on the Warriors being more efficient as they look to end LeBron's Game 2 reign.
“The NBA Finals haven’t seen a team go up 2-0 since the 2008 postseason when the Boston Celtics captured the first two games at home against the L.A. Lakers. While that angle is hard to ignore, it’s tough to dismiss the fact that the Warriors are 10-1 at home in the playoffs. More importantly, they’ve covered nine of those games,” said David. “Golden State opened as a higher favorite in this game and based on the respect from the oddsmakers, I’d go against the split (1-1) trend and look for the Warriors to go up 2-0 on Sunday.”
It’s impossible to envision Golden State will have a 45-10 edge in bench points against the Cavs again, so the defending champs must get a better effort out of all their starters. One positive from Game 1 was that Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut each got easy looks that they were able to turn into points as a result of excellent ball movement. Barnes got off to a fast start and ended up 6-for-10 from the field, while Bogut shot 5-for-7, getting his buckets right at the rim in matching his second-highest scoring output of the postseason despite playing only 15 minutes.
Bigs Bogut, Festus Ezeli, Anderson Varejao and Marreese Speights played just 30 combined minutes as the Warriors opted for small ball more often than not. Despite often being without a true rim protector, the Warriors limited Cleveland’s opportunities at the rim, forcing nine missed layups that the Cavs could and should’ve made, by Lue’s count.
With Frye set to get more minutes and both teams hoping to shoot better than the 33 percent each managed from beyond the arc in Game 1, we could see a higher-scoring contest on Sunday after the ‘under’ came in rather easily in the opener, staying well below 210.
The total on Game 2 has been adjusted and opened at 207, getting bet up to 208.5 since according to VI’s David, that outcome was directly attributed to poor shooting.
”Golden State’s defense is vastly underrated and their effort on that side of the court has helped the ‘under’ go 7-4 at Oracle Arena in the playoffs. The Warriors have held six opponents under 100 during this span and four under 90 points. It’s easy to think Cleveland will turn it around on Sunday but it just doesn’t match up well with the Warriors,” David explained. ”Dating back to last year’s finals, the Cavs are averaging 91.7 points per game versus the Warriors and two of the better efforts (100, 95) were helped with overtime. I believe Cleveland will get on track at home offensively but would fade the offense again in Game 2 and take its team total ‘under’ (101).”
Thursday’s broadcast was the most-watched Game 1 in NBA Finals history, so since the start time moves up an hour for Sunday’s primetime start, you can bet there’s going to be a ton of attention being paid to this one. Neither team played the series opener they hoped for, but both know there’s a ton of time left and work to do. The Cavs hope to steal homecourt advantage. The Warriors are out to hold serve. Both will look to settle in and make the shots they normally would, something that eluded the finalists in Game 1.
