NBA Finals Game 7 Preview
By Tony Mejia
NBA Finals - Game 7 - Series tied 3-3
Cleveland at Golden State (-5/207), 8:00 p.m. ET - ABC
For the first time since 2013, the NBA Finals are going the distance.
Ray Allen’s heroic 3-pointer late in Game 6 spoiled the Spurs championship plans three years ago, forcing a Game 7 that the Heat captured 95-88 to win a second straight title. LeBron James tied Tommy Heinsohn’s NBA record for most points in a Game 7, pouring in 37 while grabbing 12 rebounds.
It’s going to take a similar effort to beat the Warriors in Oakland as the Cavs look to make history by becoming the first team ever to rally from a 3-1 deficit to win an NBA Finals.
It’s only the fourth time in 22 years that the title will come down to a single game and the first time in 50 years that a team has forced a deciding game after falling behind 3-1.
Golden State is hoping to repeat in order to validate its 73-win season, while the Cavs are looking to deliver Cleveland’s first championship of any kind since 1964.
This will be the 19th Game 7 in Finals history, and home teams have gotten the better of the matchups in 15 of 18, winning the last six times. A road team hasn’t won one of these since 1978, when the Washington Bullets beat the Seattle Supersonics, so yes, odds are certainly against the Cavs. Of course, that hasn’t stopped them from believing yet.
There’s not a lot we don’t know about the Cavs, a team that arrives as an underdog because the Eastern Conference is so much easier to navigate than the West. They’ve survived an in-season coaching change and Kevin Love’s obvious lack of cohesion with the rest of the group. They’re on the cusp of a championship.
In that sense, James has willed them like he said he would. Before last year, no player had ever averaged at least 30 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists in a Finals series. He’s on pace to do it for the second consecutive season. Add in his 2.7 steals and 2.2 blocks during this series, and his Finals 2016 production in these five statistical categories is unprecedented, according to the NBA. James has scored 41 points in each of the last two games. Michael Jordan is the only player with as many as three straight 40-point Finals games (he had four in a row in 1993). The only 40-point performances in a Finals Game 7 are from Jerry West (42 in 1969) and Elgin Baylor (41 in 1962).
In a postseason where it was openly debated whether he’d been surpassed as the face of the league by Steph Curry or in terms of production by the likes of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Kawhi Leonard, James has persevered and quieted all that talk. At 31 years old, he’s still the best player in basketball.
Unlike last year, he’s got the three highest-paid players on his roster, Kyrie Irving, Tristan Thompson, and yes, Love, healthy and contributing. And yet, even though Irving has opened eyes, it’s still all on James. He’s the driving force. He’s the key to it all. If the Cavs win, he’ll avoid a gross 2-5 record in NBA Finals and re-enter the conversation as the best to have ever done it, getting halfway to Michael Jordan’s haul of six rings.
LeBron has scored 41 points in consecutive games. Does he have enough in the tank to pull off the unexpected? To become the first team to rally from a 3-1 deficit to win The Finals, Cleveland will have to hand Golden State a third consecutive loss – a streak the Warriors have never suffered in coach Steve Kerr’s two seasons.
The Warriors’ last three-game losing streak was Nov. 20-23, 2013, during the 2013-14 regular season. Golden State went through the entire 2015-16 regular season without losing back-to-back games before dropping Games 3 and 4 of the Western Conference Finals to the Thunder and Games 5 and 6 of The Finals to the Cavaliers. The Warriors are an all-time team. They’ve lost four games out of 53 at home. This next win, if they get it on Sunday, will be their 50th at Oracle Arena this season.
That’s why you can’t throw everything we’ve seen in the regular season out the window. Although we’ve seen throughout these Finals that the Cavs have been able to physically impose their will and ultimately knock a team that won 73 games down a few pegs, consistency is the key. It’s time to find out who is most strong-willed.
With that in mind, take a look at what Marreese Speights, who should play a role in Game 7 since Andrew Bogut is out, said about his MVP teammate.
“On Thursday night in Cleveland, during Game 6 of the NBA Finals, I saw something I’ve never seen before: Steph Curry … furious,” Speights wrote in the Players Tribune. “I mean, I’ve seen him get mad before. But when he got called for that sixth foul, that was, by far, the angriest I’ve ever seen him.
“You know what, though? I’m going to give you all some inside info. After the game, Steph wasn’t upset. He might have said one or two words, but then he got on his phone — he talks with his kids after the game, or his wife — and he moved on.
“And it was the same for the rest of us Steph’s gonna go off on Sunday. I wouldn’t be surprised if he comes out and scores 50. With all the things the media has been saying about him, and everything on Twitter, I know he’s going to respond. I know it. And then all the other guys are going to fall into place. That’s how it works for us. Anytime anything happens with Steph — be it emotionally, or him getting hurt in the Houston series, or him getting ejected on Thursday night — that motivates us to take it to another level. So look out on Sunday.”
The Warriors will be facing immense pressure, but have been in must-win games all season due to their run at 73, which could pay dividends here. Keep in mind, the Bill Russell NBA Finals Most Valuable Player Award will be presented after Game 7. The award’s namesake is the king of winner-take-all games in championship series: Russell went 5-0 in Finals Game 7s, averaging 20.4 points and 32.0 rebounds. Can Curry, in his own way, be that great?
There’s no question Golden State will need him to be at his best. The reigning two-time MVP has neglected blame so far, but Game 7 revolves around his ability to impose his will on the game and promote a faster pace.
Total bettors watched the ‘over’ connect in Game 6 of the finals on Thursday and that outcome was helped with the pair combining for 65 points in the fourth quarter.
For the finale, oddsmakers sent out an opener of 207 and most betting shops have dropped the number to 206 ½ as of Saturday.
NBA totals expert Chris David believes you can handicap Game 7 with two different approaches.
“If you’re leaning to trends both this season and historically, the ‘under’ is an easy look on Sunday. The last four Game 7’s of the NBA Finals have all leaned to the low side and all of the outcomes were extremely tight with teams putting an extra emphasis on possessions. The argument to that angles is this series hasn’t seen a competitive game and that has created a looser style of play which has produced a few ‘over’ tickets,” explained David.
Depending where and when you’ve placed your wagers on the first six games, you could have differing results but most bettors have seen the ‘over/under’ go 3-3 in this series.
Another trend that could have you leaning to the ‘under’ is based on the Warriors’ total tendencies at Oracle Arena. The last two years, Golden State has seen the ‘under’ go 16-5-3 (76%) in the playoffs which includes an 8-4-1 (67%) record this postseason.
“Using angles and systems that have been documented are a part of my handicapping by I’m fully aware that trends aren’t always your friends,” said David. “Current form is a key factor and nobody can ignore what Cleveland has done recently. The Cavaliers have scored 120, 112 and 115 points in their three wins against a club that is known for its great team defense. Including those results, Cleveland is now 15-0 in the playoffs when they score over a 100 points. With Bogut out and Andre Iguodala not playing at 100 percent, the Warriors certainly aren’t the same team defensively.”
“I believe Cleveland will be able to carry over its offensive momentum to the Bay Area and even though Golden State shot poorly (36%, 40%) in the last two games, it still put up 97 and 101 points in those losses. If the Warriors shoot in the forties on Sunday, they’ll easily eclipse 100-plus points and I expect them to do so. In this particular matchup, I’m going to shy away from the Game 7 angles and lean to the ‘over’ (206 ½) in the final.
Iguodala’s back issue is worrisome, but the Warriors anticipate him being effective enough to rely upon for his normal of minutes. How well he feels and plays should be Game 7’s chief x-factor.
