UFC Fight Night 87
By Brian Edwards
The Ultimate Fighting Championship is poised to make its debut in the Netherlands on Sunday morning in the Eastern Time Zone in Rotterdam, where a 13-fight card will get started at 10:30 a.m. There will be three bouts on Fight Pass before the prelims get going at noon Eastern on Fox Sports 1.
The headliner will feature a heavyweight showdown between local legend Alistair Overeem and former UFC champion Andrei Arlovski. Both train in Albuquerque out of the Jackson-Winklejohn Academy, but these guys do not like each other.
Arlovski stated on “UFC Tonight” earlier this week that he’ll never train with The ‘Reem again. Greg Jackson and Mike Winklejohn will both corner Arlovski for this fight rather than Overeem.
Arlovski weighed in at 248 pounds, while Overeem tipped the scales at 244.
As of Saturday afternoon, most betting shops had Overeem (40-14-1 MMA, 5-3 UFC) listed as a -230 favorite, while ‘The Pitbull’ was the +180 underdog. The total was 1.5 rounds (‘under’ -130, ‘over’ +110).
Overeem is a Dutch kickboxer who was once the Strikeforce heavyweight champion. He has won three fights in a row and four of his last five since suffering back-to-back knockout losses to Travis Browne and Antonio Silva in 2013. Since then, Overeem’s only defeat came by first-round KO at the hands of Ben Rothwell.
Before the loss to Rothwell, Overeem dominated Frank Mir for 15 minutes to take a unanimous-decision victory at UFC 169. Then in December of 2014, Overeem KO’d Stefan Struve late in the first round. Next at UFC 185 in Dallas, he took another UD win over Roy ‘Big Country’ Nelson.
I was in Orlando this past December when Overeem finally squared off against former UFC champ Junior dos Santos. I was all over Overeem that night as a +260 underdog (I bet it early in the week before the odds came down and closed at +215) when he knocked out JDS in the third round.
That victory elevated Overeem into the third slot of the UFC’s heavyweight rankings. He feels a win over Arlovski will merit him a title shot. That’s debatable, however, since the winner of Travis Browne vs. Cain Velasquez will also be in the conversation after they tangle at UFC 200. The current heavyweight kingpin Fabricio Werdum will defend his strap for the first time against Stipe Miocic next weekend in the UFC 198 headliner in Brazil.
In addition to the previously noted victories, Overeem has other notable career wins over the likes of Brock Lesnar, Werdum, Todd Duffee, Mark Hunt and Vitor Belfort (twice).
Arlovski (25-11-1 MMA, 14-5 UFC) has enjoyed his second tour of duty with the UFC, capturing wins at a 4-1 clip, including triumphs over Brendan Schaub, Travis Browne, Antonio Silva and Frank Mir. However, in his last outing while he was on the verge of a title shot, the 37-year-old Arlovski was KO’d by Miocic in only 54 seconds at UFC 195.
Arlovski won UFC gold by beating Tim Sylvia by first-round submission at UFC 51 on Feb. 5 of 2005. He made two successful title defenses with victories over Justin Eilers at UFC 53 and Paul Buentello at UFC 55, but he lost the belt to Sylvia by first-round KO at UFC 59. They had a rematch less than three months later at UFC 61, with Sylvia winning a UD (48-47, 49-46, 48-47).
Prediction: I lean to Overeem here, but I’m not confident enough to lay the -230 price. Instead, I’ll go ‘under’ 1.5 rounds (-130) for three units. I think Overeem gets the KO late in the first round but remember, we still get the first 2.5 minutes of the second round for a finish to occur and provide us with a victory. We should point out that 40 of Overeem’s 55 career fights have ended in Round 1. Three of Arlovski’s last four bouts were over in the opening stanza.
In the co-main event, Stefan Struve and Antonio ‘Bigfoot’ Silva will collide in a crucial matchup for both fighters. Struve (26-8 MMA, 10-6 UFC), who is a Netherlands native just like Overeem, has lost two of three fights since returning from more than 21 months out of action due to an enlarged heart.
The 28-year-old was set to face Matt Mitrione at UFC 175, but the promotion’s personnel decided to cancel the fight after Struve fainted in the dressing room and had an elevated heart rate less than a hour before the bout.
The UFC’s only seven-footer was cleared to face Overeem at UFC on Fox 13, but he was knocked out with 47 seconds remaining in the opening stanza. Struve bounced back to beat Antonio Rogerio Nogueira in Brazil at UFC 190. However, he lost a unanimous decision to Jared Rosholt at UFC 193 last November.
Struve, who has lost three of his last four fights, owns notable career wins over Miocic, Little Nog, Lavar Johnson, Pat Barry and Buentello. He has lost to top-tier heavyweights like Hunt, Browne, Nelson and Dos Santos.
Struve weighed in on Saturday at 265 pounds, while ‘Bigfoot’ tipped the scales at 266. Unless it’s a championship bout, fighters are allowed to come in one pound over the division limit (265 for heavyweight).
Silva (20-7-1 MMA, 3-5-1 UFC) has limped to a 1-4-1 record in his last six fights, notching his only victory over Soa Palelei by second-round KO at UFC 190 last August. Then in November at UFC 193, Silva and Hunt squared off in a rematch of their draw in December of 2013 when they put on one of the greatest battles in MMA history.
But the second time around ended early when Hunt scored a first-round KO over ‘Bigfoot’ in Melbourne, Australia. All six of Silva’s recent defeats have come by KO in the opening round, including a pair of setbacks against Cain Velasquez, in addition to losses to Daniel Cormier, Arlovski and Mir.
Before his second loss to Velasquez, however, Silva scored back-to-back KO victories over Overeem and Browne. Silva rallied in the third round to finish Overeem with a violent barrage at UFC 156. In his win over Browne, Silva took advantage of Browne injuring his knee early in the bout.
Most books have Struve installed as a -220 favorite, with Silva available on the comeback for a nice +180 payout (risk $100 to win $180). The total is 1.5 rounds (‘under’ -170, ‘over’ +140).
Prediction: This is a desperation fight for both of these mixed martial artists. Both carry big names, but the loser could easily find himself cut from the promotion. Struve has yet to regain his pre-long-layoff form that made the ‘Skyscraper’ a top heavyweight prospect several years ago. At the age of 28 with 34 career fights under his belt, he still has time to produce a great career, but he needs to get started on that Sunday afternoon. Even in his one win over Little Nog since the health scare and subsequent layoff, Struve wasn’t overly impressive. Nogueira had been out a long time and is clearly past his prime anyway. I think this is a toss-up fight, so I’ll go with Silva as a nice +180 underdog in a fight that he can finish with once punch at any given time. Let’s go 1.5 units on ‘Bigfoot’ at +180.
Albert Tumenov and Gunnar Nelson are set to collide in the Octagon for a welterweight scrap. Most spots have Tumenov (18-2 MMA, 5-1 UFC) listed as a -185 ‘chalk.’ Nelson is a +160 underdog. The total is 1.5 rounds (‘over’ -200, ‘under’ +170).
After losing his UFC debut to Ildemar Alcantara by split decision in February of 2014, Tumenov has won five consecutive fights. He bagged a $50,000 Performance of the Night bonus with his first round KO of Alan Jouban at UFC 192.
Then in his last outing, Tumenov captured a split-decision victory (29-28, 28-29 and 29-28) over Lorenz Larkin at UFC 195. The win over Larkin garnered Tumenov a spot at No. 13 in the UFC’s welterweight rankings.
Nelson (14-2-1 MMA, 5-2 UFC) is a 27-year-old BJJ specialist from Iceland. He won his first four UFC fights and earned a pair of Performance of the Night bonuses. However, he’s lost two of his last three bouts and is in dire need of a win here.
His first setback in the UFC came against Rick Story by split decision. Nelson bounced back to top Brandon Thatch by first-round submission at UFC 189. Then in a big step up in class, he lost by UD to Demian Maia at UFC 194 this past December.
Nelson has only been an underdog once in his career, defeating Thatch as a +130 ‘dog.
Prediction: I’m on the sidelines for this one. I don’t see an edge with the side or total.
The rest of the main card, which starts at 2:00 p.m. Eastern on FS1, looks like this:
Germaine De Randamie -400 vs. Anna Elmose +325 (women’s bantamweight)
Nikita Krylov -220 vs. Francimar Barroso +180 (LH)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz -265 vs. Heather Jo Clark +225 (WS)
**Octagon Nuggets**
-- A sure-to-be-entertaining heavyweight slugfest between Roy ‘Big Country’ Nelson and Derrick ‘Black Beast’ Lewis has been added to UFC Fight Night 90. This is the Thursday show – with Rafael dos Anjos vs. Eddie Alvarez for the lightweight championship serving as the main event -- in Las Vegas two days before UFC 200. I will be there.
-- Dos Anjos is currently listed as a -400 favorite over Alvarez (+325) at 5Dimes.
-- I like Cody ‘No Love’ Garbrandt to beat Thomas Almeida as a +135 underdog in the UFC Fight Night 88 headliner on May 29.
-- I’ve already taken Frankie Edgar at -115 for his interim featherweight title fight against Jose Aldo at UFC 200 this summer.
-- According to multiple reports on Friday, the UFC’s debut in South Dakota has a main event in the works that’ll feature third-ranked lightweight Tony Ferguson vs. ninth-ranked Michael Chiesa. However, while meeting with the media in Rotterdam yesterday, Chiesa said it “was just a rumor.”
-- UFC on Fox 20 in Chicago is starting to take shape. Though the main event hasn’t been officially announced, reports have it pitting former women’s bantamweight champ Holly Holm against Valentina Shevchenko. The co-main will be a light-heavyweight slugfest between Anthony ‘Rumble’ Johnson and Glover Teixeira. Also, Gilbert Melendez will make his return from a one-year suspension due to a positive test for PEDs to take on Edson Barboza, who is off a decision win over Anthony Pettis.
-- Robbie Lawler’s next welterweight title defense is being targeted for UFC 201 against Tyron Woodley. This show will be at Philips Arena in Atlanta on July 30.
