Game 3 - Warriors at Thunder
By Brian Edwards
The 2016 Western Conference finals shift to Oklahoma City on Sunday night with the series knotted at 1-1. The Thunder overcame a 13-point intermission deficit to win Game 1 by a 108-102 count as a 7.5-point underdog, hooking up money-line supporters with a payout in the +325 range (risk $100 to win $325). Then in Game 2, Golden State (82-12 straight up, 53-39-2 against the spread) responded by smashing OKC 118-91 as a nine-point home ‘chalk.’
For Game 3, the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas opened the Warriors as 2.5-point road favorites. As of Saturday afternoon, most betting shops had Steve Kerr’s team favored by three points. The total was 219.5 on the send-out at the Westgate, but that number has been adjusted up to 220.5 points. Golden St. is -150 on the money line, leaving Billy Donovan’s squad as the +130 underdog (risk $100 to win $130) to win outright.
Let’s go back to the series opener. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook were the catalysts in the comeback victory. Durant had 26 points to go with 10 rebounds, three assists and three steals. It was far from a vintage KD performance, however, as he made only 10-of-30 shots from the field and committed five turnovers.
Westbrook overcame a disastrous first half to heat up in the third quarter. He finished with 27 points, 12 assists, seven steals and six rebounds. Steven Adams contributed 16 points, 12 boards and a pair of blocked shots. Serge Ibaka produced a double-double with 11 points and 11 rebounds, while Dion Waiters tallied 10 points and four assists without a turnover. He drained 4-of-6 shots, including both of his launces from long distance.
In the losing effort, Steph Curry finished with 26 points, 10 rebounds, seven assists and three steals, but he also committed seven turnovers. The Davidson University product went 9-of-22 from the field. Klay Thompson added 25 points, nine boards and four assists, while Draymond Green tallied 23 points, five boards, four assists, two blocks and one steal. Harrison Barnes was the only other Warrior in double figures with 12 points.
Curry responded in Game 2 with a much more efficient outing. He scored 28 points on 9-of-15 shooting, including a 5-of-8 performance from 3-point range. Seven Warriors scored in double figures, including Thompson (15), Andre Iguodala (14), Mo Speights (13), Festus Ezeli (12), Barnes (11) and Green (10).
Green stuffed the stat sheet as usual, finished with eight rebounds, seven assists, two blocked shots and one steal. Speights scored 13 despite playing only nine minutes. The University of Florida product, who has won a ring in college and the NBA, hitting 5-of-6 shots, including both from downtown.
A late first-half run built Golden St.’s lead up to nine at halftime. Then the Warriors poured it on in a dominant third quarter, outscoring the Thunder 31-19. The blowout was on from there with both coaches resting their starters for the majority of the final stanza.
Even though he played only 35 minutes, Durant scored 29 points on 11-of-18 shooting. However, he had an atrocious 1/8 assists-to-turnovers ratio. Westbrook had 16 points and 12 assists.
After a split at Oracle Arena in Oakland, Sportsbooks have the Warriors as a -340 favorite for the updated series price. Gamblers can take OKC on the comeback for a lucrative +270 return (risk $100 to win $270).
As for the futures to win the NBA Championship, Golden St. is the -125 ‘chalk.’ Cleveland has the second-shortest odds (+160), followed by the Thunder (+750) and Raptors (200/1).
Oklahoma City (64-31 SU, 45-49-1 ATS) has been a home underdog only twice this season, producing a 0-1-1 spread record. The Thunder dropped a 100-96 decision to San Antonio as a 2.5-point home underdog in Game 3 of the West semifinals. The only other home ‘dog spot came in the regular season on Feb. 27 when the Warriors rallied to force overtime and then captured a 121-118 victory as three-point road ‘chalk.’
Golden St. owns a 36-9 SU record and a 25-18 ATS mark in its 45 road assignments this year. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City has posted a 36-11 SU record and a 23-23-1 ATS ledger in its home outings.
As Chris David points out, Golden State remained undefeated in bounce-back spots with its Game 2 win. OKC has been equally effective in such situations in these playoffs, albeit over a shorter span of time.
David said, “Golden State improved to 12-0 this season off a loss after defeating Oklahoma City in Game 2. What’s more impressive is that the Warriors have gone 8-3-1 ATS in those victories. To be fair to the Thunder, we should make a note that they haven’t dropped back-to-back games in the playoffs. OKC has gone 3-0 both straight up and against the spread and they’ve won those games by an average of 14.6 points per game and the offense has averaged 133.3 PPG in the victories.”
The ‘over’ is 50-43-1 overall for the Warriors, 25-20 in their road games.
The ‘under’ is 50-45 overall for the Thunder, 28-19 in its home contests.
After cashing in the first two games of this best-of-seven set, the ‘under’ is 4-1 in the five head-to-head meetings between these clubs this year. The combined scoring outputs have been 224, 239 (in overtime, 206 at the end of regulation), 227, 210 and 209.
VI’s David had this opinion on the Game 3 total: “The ‘under’ has gone 2-0 in the first two games of this series in totals that have ranged from 223 to 225. Game 3 opened at 219 ½ and has been bumped up to 220 ½ at most betting shops and the number is very doable, needing 55-56 points in every quarter. The pace for an up-tempo game was there in the opener but Oklahoma City tapped on the breaks in Game 2, only attempting 78 shots from the field and just 19 free throws. I’d expect Billy Donovan and company to be very aggressive on Sunday and that should increase both numbers. Whether the shots fall or not is anybody’s guess but the last two games played in OKC between the pair saw a combined 239 and 242 points, with one of those games going into overtime. Just based on the pace, I’d lean to the high side on Sunday.”
Tip-off on Sunday night is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on TNT.
