Sunday 5/17/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

HOU-LAC total could be highest of postseason
Andrew Avery

The total for Game 7 between the Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Clippers could be the highest (so far) of the 2015 postseason. The total opened at 220 at online books and 220.5 at the Westgate LV Superbook.

The highest of the playoffs so far was the 221.5 in Game 5 of Houston's opening round series against the Dallas Mavericks. That matchup finished well under the total with Houston clinching the series victory thanks to a 103-94 win.

The Rockets and Clippers have posted an Over/Under record of 6-0 in their Western Conference semifinal matchup with the total closing higher each game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Century Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Post: 2:40 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 58 - Purse:$5300 - MAIDENS 5YO & YOUNGER


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 3 ROYAL RENEGADE 2/1


# 1 IWONTDOTHATAGAIN 4/1


# 5 ESCALANTE 6/1


After thorough analysis by the consortium, ROYAL RENEGADE comes out as the top selection. Really liked this colt's last race. Ran a solid 58 speed fig. Major contender. Starting from the 3 hole increases this solid standardbred's chances for a nice return on investment. IWONTDOTHATAGAIN - Starters win from this position at Century Downs with better than average regularity, suggesting this terrific wager. Handicappers at Century Downs will notice this interesting entrant's pace ratings are among the best in the field of horses. ESCALANTE - Don't count out this standardbred, especially with Cullen as the trainer. In the money percent is terrific. With Cullen in the bike, watch out for this standardbred to get the trip to the winner's circle.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Harrah's Philadelphia

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Post: 1:20 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 92 - Purse:$11000 - NW $7,000 IN LAST 5 STARTS 4 YR. OLDS & OLDER LAST START FOR A PURSE OF GREATER THAN 13,000 INELIGIBLE PA PREFERENCE


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 5 HIDE ME AWAY 9/2


# 2 HANDSOME HENRY K 2/1


# 8 ALL WEEK 9/2


HIDE ME AWAY sure does look ready to dominate. This race horse may have some hidden form, a top prize would be a pleasant surprise. Wagering on standardbreds from the 5 hole at Harrah's Philadelphia has rewarded players with better than average gains. Many expert selectors know speed is is such an important factor. This race horse has credentials with a 91 avg stat. HANDSOME HENRY K - He has been doing work strongly and the speed figures are among the most solid in the group of horses. This gelding has been doing work versus some of the most competitive horses in this race lately. ALL WEEK - Kirby and Hundertpfund have a very nice working relationship. Exemplary results from their contests. With this driver/conditioner hooking up, gamblers often make cash. Return on investment is tremendous with this partnership.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Belterra Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 2 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $5400 Class Rating: 65

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 17 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 1 SHADOW GAME 4/1


# 5 LA BELLE PRINCESSE 5/2


# 3 AFLEETING BEAUTY 5/1


I lean toward SHADOW GAME here. Looks very good against this field and ought to be one of the leaders. The speed fig of 66 from her last race looks solid in here. I would give my vote to this filly on the jock and conditioner numbers alone. LA BELLE PRINCESSE - Must be given consideration given the class of races run recently. Should be given a shot here on the basis of the numbers in the speed department alone. AFLEETING BEAUTY - This mare could improve now going off Lasix. Is worth taking a close look at and may be a bet - strong Equibase Speed Figures (52 average) at today's distance and surface recently.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Golden Gate

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 99

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE MARCH 1 ALLOWED 3 LBS. ONE SUCH RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $10,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 5 YOMYBATO 6/5


# 6 DECKACARDS 2/1


# 1 POCKET PRINCE 6/1


YOMYBATO seems to be the bet in here. Overall the Equibase Speed Figs of this equine look quite good in this race. Competitive selection to take this race going in a turf route. Looks formidable to be on the front end at the first call. DECKACARDS - Has been running strongly lately and will most likely be close to the lead early on. With a formidable 100 speed rating last time out, will definitely be a factor in this race. POCKET PRINCE - Has been moving in the most competitive company of the group recently. Could best this group based on the Equibase Speed Figure - 92 - of his last affair.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Arlington - Race #3 - Post: 2:11pm - Optional Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $25,000 Class Rating: 96

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 DONNA'S FLY GIRL (ML=8/1)
#9 FINE ASSAY (ML=9/2)
#4 ZUBI ZUBI ZU (ML=7/2)


DONNA'S FLY GIRL - I seem to always make money betting Aschinger horses on the grass. That barn has a solid win pct for this distance/surface. When Homeister and Aschinger team up on animals the return on investment has been fabulous at +86. FINE ASSAY - Garnered a nice turf fig on April 15th at Hawthorne. A repeat right here, and this one has a great shot to win. ZUBI ZUBI ZU - The jockey and trainer combination have a positive return on investment when they combine forces. Filly has shown some pace. This shorter distance should be better for her. Comparing how the horses in this field have fared under similar conditions, I see this animal has the highest speed rating for the distance-surface.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 JENNIFER J. (ML=4/1), #2 SEEKING TREASURE (ML=5/1), #3 ZIPSO FACTO (ML=6/1),

JENNIFER J. - The sixth place finish position in the last affair was not the best. This pony has been disappointing the public as the favorite time and time again. SEEKING TREASURE - Hard to take this questionable contender at the odds after the finish position (third) in the last race. All kinds of crazy early zip on board for this clash. Little chance for this front-runner. ZIPSO FACTO - The sixth place finish position in the last event was not the best.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #6 DONNA'S FLY GIRL to win if we can get at least 4/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,6,9]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [4,6,9] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Churchill Downs - Race #3 - Post: 1:43pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $32,000 Class Rating: 99

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 NIGHT PARTY (ML=8/1)
#3 CITY CONNECT (ML=5/2)


NIGHT PARTY - Gelding looks like the lone speed here. He may turn the race into a procession. Searching through the pps for this race, I noted right away this animal's last effort was more than meets the eye. Showed good zip, fell back, and then ran evenly. Cook gets a break on this mount carrying 10 pounds less than last out. Its possible this could make the difference in this race. CITY CONNECT - Horse won shipping here on April 28th and looks good right back. Have to make this horse a strong challenger; he comes off a nice race on April 28th. The return on investment when Mena and Hiles get together is good. This horse's last speed figure recorded on Apr 28th is tops in last race Equibase speed figs. Look at this pattern of improvement. 68/77/101 are the last three speed figures. Carrying 7 pounds less this race. Trainer has him in a good spot.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 HAPPY FELLA (ML=9/5), #6 VINDICATION NOW (ML=2/1),

HAPPY FELLA - Awfully difficult to bet on this horse when he hasn't been showing any indications of eagerness recently. This morning-line choice ran on April 11th and hasn't had a work since. VINDICATION NOW - Last raced on Apr 25th at Churchill Downs, finishing third. Not likely to get better off of that performance in today's race. The fig last race out doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class figure of today's event. Mark this entrant as a vulnerable contender.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - NIGHT PARTY - Earnings per start is one measure of class I like to check out. This thoroughbred is tops in the group and has a good shot to beat this crew.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#2 NIGHT PARTY is the play if we get odds of 9/5 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,3]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Balmoral: Sunday 5/17 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 7 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (20 - 28 / $74.80): RYLEIGHS LILLY (7th)

Spot Play: FOX VALLEY REDHEAD (2nd)


Race 1

In a wide open race on paper (7) SHEZ SO SASSY has the looks of a real contender in the division. The filly makes her second start off a layoff and has plenty of room for improvement. (3) PERSUASIVE LOOK filly gets sent out for an excellent trotting barn coming a huge win. (4) BI POLAR ROSE went a big third quarter that might have taken something out of her late last week. The 3-year-old looks to be in line for a nice trip up close.

Race 2

(7) FOX VALLEY REDHEAD has just been racing evenly but takes a significant drop in for a tag against a suspect bunch. (8) FULL DESIRE showed some improvement last out being used multiple times; threat. (1) CINDER SHOOTER four-year-old mare was the top driver's choice and has some potential in her career debut.

Race 3

(1) LET'S BE HONEST well bred trotter is more than capable but needs a good drive from a provisional inexperienced pilot. (4) FOX VALLEY DAKOTA was much better in her most recent qualifier; threat. (6) BYE BYE DALTON also has a nice pedigree and should improve second start back off the layoff.

Race 4

(9) CHEROKEE HIFLYZANE was much improved last out in Indiana and should offer a nice price. (6) GIFTED BY NATURE looks primed for a big effort third start back off the layoff. (8) THISISHOWWEROLL three-year-old gelding has been extremely disappointing after a brilliant first few starts of his freshman season last year. The pacer might be able to turn it back around at some point.

Race 5

In a weak and inconsistent field (3) ONE LAST CHANCE beat a better group two back and just needs a good trip to hit the top few spots. (2) ASHES N DUST gets sent out for a low percentage driver but could hit the ticket at a price. (1) LD'S DASH has been much better since making some breaks a few starts back; threat.

Race 6

(1) FOX VALLEY QATAR won for fun off the layoff and will look to make it ten wins in eleven career starts. (7) ALLPOWERNOEMOTION put in a big effort at Hoosier last out and could threaten with a similar effort. (3) CAPTAIN GREEDY gelding is a solid trotter who always gives a good effort; use underneath.

Race 7

(8) RYLEIGH'S LILLY almost beat a much tougher field from the ten hole last week. The pacer needs a good setup but is the main danger late. (4) DP ANGEL was the driver's choice and is one of few contenders in the race. (7) OUR MISS LILY mare was in over her head last start but has been competitive against this bunch.

Race 8

(5) LEX filly has been super sharp this year and will look to play catch me if you can; fires early. (7) SPORTSMUFFLER might have the most upside coming into the race off a solid first start back. (10) FOX VALLEY AUBRY was unable to out-pace the top choice last out but looks to have tons of ability; threat.

Race 9

(6) RED SOLO CUP well bred stallion was hand driven down the lane making last week look a lot closer than what it actually was. The trotter owns a big burst of speed and should handle this field with any improvement in his third start back off a very long layoff. (8) BENNS SCORE KEEPER hit the ticket at a big price last out and needed the start over the track after shipping in from Florida. (3) MY FUNKY FARKLE doesn't win a whole lot but has been very competitive; use underneath.

Race 10

(10) BLUERIDGE ADILENE is one for fifty-one lifetime but was driver's choice and has been knocking on the door in recent efforts. (9) RAVISHING IMAGE has some upside in a weak field; threat. (6) SPORTY PROJECT gets sent out for capable connections and has room to improve.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Sunday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Arlington Park (6th) Chu Chu Johnnie, 9-2
(8th) Somali Byrd, 7-2

Belmont Park (5th) Isthmus, 5-1
(9th) Lirica Heat, 4-1

Belterra Park (2nd) Shadow Game, 4-1
(5th) Alone Again, 3-1


Canterbury Park (1st) Cole Cole, 4-1
(5th) Flashy Jewel, 9-2


Churchill Downs (5th) Katy Lied, 4-1
(6th) Lollipop, 4-1


Emerald Downs (3rd) Arraignment, 7-2
(9th) Absolutely Cool, 7-2


Golden Gate Fields (4th) Chat with Me, 4-1
(7th) Papaclem'smidnight, 9-2


Gulfstream Park (1st) British Glory, 3-1
(6th) Go Go Romeo, 3-1


Lone Star Park (1st) Tulita, 3-1
(6th) Devon's Iron Giant, 4-1


Monmouth Park (7th) Amhem, 7-2
(8th) Leflore County, 9-2


Mountaineer (5th) Believe in You, 9-2
(9th) Bonamassa, 7-2


Parx Racing (1st) Westoniana, 3-1
(5th) Southern Kisses, 9-2


Prairie Meadows (1st) Trillific, 3-1
(5th) Natalies Storm, 4-1


Presque Isle Downs (2nd) Nice Gator, 3-1
(4th) Shamrock Orange, 9-2


Santa Anita (6th) U S Citizen, 3-1
(8th) Somethings Unusual, 3-1


Woodbine (1st) Dixie's Vow, 3-1
(4th) Ninth Symphony, 3-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB Preview: Tigers (23-14) at Cardinals (24-12)

Game: 3
Venue: Busch Stadium
Date: May 17, 2015 8:05 PM EDT

With Miguel Cabrera in the midst of a power surge after a milestone home run, the Detroit Tigers can keep enjoying the ride by completing a rare feat at Busch Stadium.

The two-time AL MVP will try to deliver a longball in a fourth straight game Sunday night when the surging Tigers look to become the first road team to sweep a three-game set from the St. Louis Cardinals in 23 months.

Cabrera hit the 400th home run of his career long before Jose Iglesias came through with a 10th-inning, go-ahead single in Saturday's 4-3 victory. Cabrera, whose first-inning solo shot came just before a rain delay of 1 hour, 20 minutes, broke a tie with Andres Galarraga for the most homers by a Venezuelan-born player.

"That means a lot to me," Cabrera said. "But I just want to win and play games."

The NL Central-leading Cardinals (24-12) had been 14-3 at Busch before dropping the first two in this series. They haven't been swept at home in a series of more than two games since June 21-23, 2013, against Texas.

Cabrera will try to help Detroit (23-14) win its fourth in a row after homering four times in the last three. His next homer will move him past Willie Horton into sole possession of fourth on the Tigers' all-time list with 263.

The slugger is 7 for 15 with eight RBIs in the last three games and is batting .400 with seven homers in 18 away from home.

"He's definitely the best hitter in baseball and he's hands down the smartest player," manager Brad Ausmus said.

Cabrera, however, could have a tough time going deep in four straight contests for the first time since Aug. 9-12, 2013. St. Louis starter Lance Lynn (2-3, 3.27 ERA) has surrendered two home runs over 41 1-3 innings through his first seven starts and five in his last 145 innings at Busch.

Lynn has alternated between good and bad over his last five starts. He was on the positive side Tuesday, allowing four hits and striking out nine over six scoreless innings in an 8-3 win at Cleveland.

The right-hander lost his only career start versus Detroit in 2012, yielding five runs over five innings. Cabrera doubled, walked and struck out against him.

Yoenis Cespedes has gone 2 for 3 with a triple off Lynn, but his status is uncertain after he bent his left thumb back on a sliding catch attempt in Saturday's 10th inning.

Alfredo Simon (4-1, 3.05) starts for Detroit after a good bounce-back effort Tuesday, giving up one run with one walk over 7 2-3 innings in a 2-1, 10-inning win over Minnesota. He allowed nine runs and six walks in 9 1-3 innings over his previous two outings.

The right-hander pitched well against the Cardinals last September, allowing four runs over 13 innings in a pair of victories while with Cincinnati.

Kolten Wong (0 for 9), Matt Holliday (3 for 16) and Jhonny Peralta (2 for 11) haven't figured out Simon, but Matt Adams has a home run and two doubles in seven at_bats. Peralta, a former Tiger, has homered in the first two games of this series.

The Cardinals, hurt by some shoddy baserunning Saturday, have lost five of seven and totaled nine runs in the last four while batting .203.

"We've got to turn the page and come for a big Sunday night game," reliever Matt Belisle said.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Indians recall RHP Adams
The Sports Xchange

The Cleveland Indians recalled right-hander Austin Adams from Triple-A Columbus on Saturday and designated left-hander Bruce Chen for assignment.

Adams, 28, made two relief appearances for the Indians before being sent to Triple-A on April 18, allowing one run and two hits in 4 2/3 innings. He has made eight relief appearance for Columbus, posting a 1-2 record and 5.68 ERA.

Chen, 37, has made a pair of starts for Cleveland, going 0-1 with a 12.79 ERA. He began the year with Columbus, going 2-1 with a 1.74 ERA.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yanks recall RHP Mitchell, option Ramirez
The Sports Xchange

The New York Yankees recalled right-hander Bryan Mitchell and optioned right-hander Jose Ramirez back to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre on Saturday.

Ramirez was called up Friday, but he did not fare well in the Yankees' 12-1 loss to the Kansas City Royals, allowing four runs on three hits and two walks in one inning.

Ramirez is 1-0 with five saves and a 2.95 ERA with Scranton/Wilkes-Barre

In seven starts in Triple-A this season, Mitchell is 2-3 with a 4.26 ERA.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Samardzija's road woes have White Sox losing
Justin Hartling

The Chicago White Sox have yet to win when they send Jeff Samardzija to the mound away from U.S. Cellular Field. Four of the pitcher's seven starts this season have come on the road.

On the road this season Samardzija has a 0-2 record with a 6.48 ERA while allowing opponents to bat .308. That's compared to his home numbers where the rightie has posted a 2.70 ERA while holding batters to .259 batting.

The Whitge Sox visit the Oakland Athletics Sunday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Over yet to cash with Arrieta on the mound
Justin Hartling

The Chicago Cubs are expected to start Jake Arrieta Sunday, which has under bettors happy as the Cubs have gone 0-4-3 over/under this year with the right-hander on the mound.

Arrieta has only allowed 15 runs in those starts over a combined 45 innings of work. On the season, Arrieta has posted a 3.00 ERA with hitters batting .270 aganist him.

The Cubbies host the Pirates Sunday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Alvarez returns for Marlins on Sunday
The Sports Xchange

Right-hander Henderson Alvarez, the Miami Marlins' opening day starter, will come off the disabled list and start Sunday against the Atlanta Braves.

Alvarez, who is 0-2 with a 4.50 earned-run average in two starts this season, has been sidelined since April 12 because of inflammation in his right shoulder and elbow.

Right-hander Tom Koehler, who was scheduled to start Sunday, probably will move to the bullpen.

Marlins right-hander Jarred Cosart, who left his most recent start because of a cramp in his right thigh, said he felt fine after throwing a bullpen session and running sprints on Saturday.

Cosart is expected to make his next scheduled start Tuesday against Arizona.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

Today's games

National League

Pirates @ Cubs
Burnett is 2-1, 1.80 in his seven starts (under 4-2-1).

Arrieta is 1-2, 4.91 in his last three starts; under is 4-0-3 in his '15 starts.

Pirates lost four of last five games with Cubs; over is 8-3-1 in in last twelve series games. Pittburgh lost last four games; five of their last seven games stayed under total. Cubs won their last six games, scoring 33 runs.

Diamondbacks @ Phillies
Collmenter is 1-1, 15.13 in his last two starts; six of his seven in '15 went over.

O'Sullivan is 0-2, 5.06 in his three starts; over is 3-0-1 in his last four.

Arizona lost six of last seven games with the Phillies; over is 6-3-1 in last ten series games. D'backs lost six of last eight games- seven of their last nine went over. Philly won its last four games; six of their last nine stayed under.

Brewers @ Mets
Peralta is 1-1, 2.70 in his last three starts; three of his last four went over.

Syndergaard lost his first MLB start, allowing three runs in sixth inning after blanking Cubs for first five.

Milwaukee won five of last eight games with the Mets; nine of last 12 series games stayed under. Brewers won four of their last seven games; four of their last six stayed under. Mets lost five of their last six games; under is 9-3-1 in last thirteen games.

Giants @ Reds
Heston is 1-1, 3.10 in his last three starts; under is 4-2-1 in his last seven.

DeSclafani is 0-3, 6.43 in his last four starts (under is 4-1-2 in last seven).

Giants lost five of last seven games with Cincinnati; road team won 11 of last 13 in series. SF lost eight of last 13 road games, but scored 21 runs the last two nights. Reds won three of their last five games; under is 4-2-1 in their last seven games.

Braves @ Marlins
Miller is 4-1, 1.80 in his seven starts; six of the seven stayed under.

Alvarez comes off DL to start for first time since April 12; he is 0-2, 4.50 in his first two '15 starts- three of his last four starts stayed under.

Marlins lost six of last eight games with Atlanta;they lost five of last six games overall-- eight of their last ten went over the total. Braves lost five of last eight games with three of last five staying under total.

Nationals @ Padres
Strasburg pitched for San Diego State; he is 1-3, 8.15 in his last four starts; five of his last seven went over.

Kennedy is 2-2, 6.55 in his last four starts, all of which went over.

Nationals won nine of last 13 games with San Diego; three of last five went over. Washington won eight of its last ten games; nine of ten went over total. Padres won four of last six home games but lost four of last six games overall; over is 7-3 in their last ten games.

Rockies @ Dodgers
Kendrick is 0-4, 9.27 in his last six starts; six of his last seven went over.

Bolsinger is 1-0, 1.59 in his last two starts; four of his last six stayed under.

Dodgers won nine of last 11 games with Colorado; 11 of last 13 in series went over. LA won 15 of last 19 home games; ten of their last 11 overall went over total. Colorado lost 12 of last 14 games; they scored 16 runs last three games.


American League

Angels @ Orioles
Richards is 3-0, 1.69 in his last four starts; four of his last six road starts went under the total.

MWright is making first '15 start; he is 3-0, 2.64 in six AAA starts this year.

Angels won eight of last ten games; eight of their last nine stayed under total. Halos won last three games with Baltimore, allowing two runs-- nine of last 11 series games stayed under. Orioles lost eight of their last 11 games.

Indians @ Rangers
Carrasco is 2-2, 6.00 in his last four starts, all of which went over.

Martinez is 0-0, 6.35 in his last three starts; six of his last seven went over.

Indians won last eight games with Texas, scoring 64 runs; over is 6-2-1 in last nine series games. Cleveland won three of last four games; 11 of their last 13 went over total. Rangers are 3-6 in last nine games; eight of their last 11 went over the total.

Blue Jays @ Astros
Buehrle is 2-0, 2.45 in his last two starts; seven of his last ten went over.

McHugh is 1-1, 6.16 in his last three starts; four of his last five went over.

Astros won seven of last eight games with Toronto; seven of last nine in series went over total. Blue Jays lost six of last seven games; four of their last five went over. Houston won its last four games, scoring 24 runs; four of their last five went over.

Bronx @ Royals
Capuano is making first '15 start; he is 1-1, 2.53 in two AAA starts this year. He is 76-87, 4.28 in 221 big league starts.

Volquez is 0-2, 6.41 in his last four starts.

Kansas City won five of last eight games with Bronx; Royals won five of last eight games overall with four of last six going over. Bronx lost four of its last five games- they scored 11 runs in the five games, four of which stayed under the total.

Rays @ Twins
Archer is 0-2, 6.06 in his last three starts; six of his last seven went under.

Gibson is 2-0, 0.96 in his last four starts; under is 6-1-1 in his last eight.

Tampa Bay-Minnesota split last ten games; three of last four stayed under the total. Rays are 3-4 in last seven games; five of their last seven stayed under. Twins won three of last four games; seven of their last ten went over.

White Sox @ A's
Samardzija pitched half a year for Oakland LY; he is 1-1, 8.50 in his last three starts- seven of his last ten went over.

Kazmir is 0-1, 5.50 in his last three starts; over is 8-1-1 in his last ten.

Chicago won six of last eight games with Oakland; White Sox won six of last seven games overall, with four of last five staying under total. A's lost nine of last ten games; over is 6-3-1 in those ten games.

Red Sox @ Mariners
SWright is making first '15 start; he is 0-1, 7.43 in two big league starts- he was 2-1, 3.24 in four AAA starts this year, 1-0, 4.22 in 10.2 IP in relief in big leagues this season.

Paxton is 1-0, 1.80 in his last three starts; five of his last six went over.

Boston won five of last seven games, with under 13-3-1 in last 17. Red Sox are 3-6 in their last nine games with Seattle- over is 9-3-1 in last 13 series games. Seattle won five of its last eight games.


Interleague

Tigers @ Cardinals
Simon is 0-1, 5.29 in his last three starts; four of his last six stayed under.

Lynn is 1-2, 4.50 in his last four starts; three of those went over total.

St Louis lost three of last four games; they lost five of last six games against Detroit. Three of last four Cardinal games stayed under. Tigers won four of last five games; they scored 27 runs in their last three games.


Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
Pitt-Chi-- Burnett 3-4; Arietta 4-3
Az-Phil-- Collmenter 3-4; O'Sullivan 0-3
Mil-NY-- Peralta 2-5; Syndergaard 0-1
SF-Cin-- Heston 4-3; DeSclafani 4-3
Atl-Mia-- Miller 6-1; Alvarez 0-2
Wsh-SD-- Strasburg 2-5; Kennedy 2-3
Col-LA-- Kendrick 2-5; Bolsinger 1-1

LAA-Balt-- Richards 4-1; MWright 0-0
Clev-Tex-- Carrasco 4-3; Martinez 6-1
NY-KC-- Capuano 0-0; Volquez 4-3
TB-Min-- Archer 4-4; Gibson 4-3
Tor-Hst-- Buehrle 5-2; McHugh 6-1
CWS-A's-- Samardzija 3-4; Kazmir 3-4
Bos-Sea-- SWright 0-0; Paxton 2-5

Det-StL-- Simon 5-2; Lynn 3-4


Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
Pitt-Chi-- Burnett 0-7; Arietta 2-7
Az-Phil-- Collmenter 3-7; O'Sullivan 2-3
Mil-NY-- Peralta 1-7; Syndergaard 0-1
SF-Cin-- Heston 1-7; DeSclafani 1-7
Atl-Mia-- Miller 0-7; Alvarez 2-2
Wsh-SD-- Strasburg 1-7; Kennedy 2-5
Col-LA-- Kendrick 5-7; Bolsinger 1-2

LAA-Balt-- Richards 0-5; MWright 0-0
Clev-Tex-- Carrasco 4-7; Martinez 1-7
NY-KC-- Capuano 0-0; Volquez 2-7
TB-Min-- Archer 2-8; Gibson 1-7
Tor-Hst-- Buehrle 4-7; McHugh 2-7
CWS-A's-- Samardzija 3-7; Kazmir 0-7
Bos-Sea-- SWright 0-0; Paxton 3-7

Det-StL-- Simon 0-7; Lynn 1-7


Umpires
Atl-Mia-- Underdogs won four of six Basner games.
Pitt-Chi-- Five of seven Fairchild games went over.
Az-Phil-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Everitt games.
Mil-NY-- Over is 4-2-1 in Diaz games this season.
SF-Cin-- Underdogs won four of last five Hallion games.
Wsh-SD-- Under is 3-1-1 in last five Cuzzi games.
Col-LA-- Last three Foster games stayed under.

TB-Min-- Four of last five Emmel games went over.
LAA-Blt-- Five of last six Iassogna games stayed under.
Tor-Hst-- Last five Ripperger games stayed under total.
NY-KC-- Five of seven Guccione games stayed under.
Cle-Tex-- Three of last four Morales games went over.
Chi-A's-- Underdogs won seven of eight TBarrett games.
Bos-Sea-- Under is 2-1 in Blakney's three games this year.

Det-StL-- Home side won five of six Vanover games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Baseball Betting: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Astros Jays weekend series

The finale has pitchers duel written all over it as Collin McHugh (4-1, 3.5 ERA) and Mark Buehrle (5-2, 5.54 ERA) match pitches. McHugh's string of consecutive wins came to an end last outing in allowing seven runs but still remains a strong 11-1 in his last 17 trips to the mound (14-3 TSR). Veteran left-hander Mark Buehrle is coming off back-2-back strong showings allowing just 3 runs over 11.0 innings of work. If Jays have a shot it's here as crafty Buehrle has a perfect 5-0 TSR vs Houston with Toronto (3-0) and Pale Hose (2-0)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Five To Follow MLB Betting: Sunday, May 17, 2015 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews

Detroit's Miguel Cabrera is obviously one of the best hitters of his generation and a future Hall of Famer. That's not up for discussion. He can hit any pitcher: flamethrower, knuckleballer, junkballer, lefty, righty, you name it. Cabrera can hit in any park. So explain to me, then, his day/night splits this season. Entering Saturday, Cabrera was hitting just .194 in night games with one homer and three RBI (and that's after a big Friday night). How is that possible? In day games, with only a few more at-bats, Cabrera is batting .471 with eight homers and 25 RBIs. So if you do daily DraftKings or whatever, take that into consideration.


Brewers at Mets (-120, 7.5)

New York has an embarrassment of young pitching but equal embarrassment of lack of hitters. The Mets are going to have to deal one of these guys at some point. But I don't think the Mets are giving up Noah Syndergaard, who looks like Thor. It should be a raucous crowd as Syndergaard makes his Citi Field debut on Sunday. He was dominant for five innings in his big-league debut on Tuesday at Wrigley Field before a few things out of his control happened. He allowed three runs and struck out six in 5.1 innings in taking the loss. Syndergaard threw 65 fastballs in his 103 pitches, averaging 98 mph on those fastballs. He's good. Wily Peralta (1-4, 3.80) goes for the Brewers. He has had four straight quality starts and allowed two runs and six hits over six innings last time out against the White Sox as the bullpen blew a big lead for him. Curtis Granderson is 4-for-5 with two doubles and a homer off him. Daniel Murphy has three singles in nine at-bats.

Key trends: The Brewers are 1-4 in Peralta's past five on the road. The "over/under" has gone under in his past four on the road.

Early lean: Mets and under.


Braves at Marlins (-140, 7.5)

So far, Atlanta has to be thrilled with that offseason trade in which it netted Shelby Miller from St. Louis. Miller (4-1, 1.60) has been one of the NL's best starters and enters the weekend No. 2 in ERA and among the WHIP (0.93) leaders. His first two starts as a Brave were against the Marlins, and he allowed one run and seven hits over 10 innings. Dating to last season, Miller has a spectacular 1.83 ERA in his past 14 starts. Dee Gordon is 4-for-12 off him. Giancarlo Stanton has two dingers in 12 at-bats. Miami gets back Henderson Alvarez (0-2, 4.50) from the DL. The presumed ace, at least until Jose Fernandez returns, hasn't pitched since April 12 with right shoulder and elbow issues. His season debut was vs. Atlanta, allowing two runs and six hits over seven innings. Andrelton Simmons may get the day off as he's just 1-for-18 career off him. Freddie Freeman is 6-for-18 with a homer and five RBIs.

Key trends: The Braves are 4-0 in Miller's past four on the road. The under has hit in all four.

Early lean: Go under for sure. Alvarez may be rusty so lean Braves.


Pirates at Cubs (-122, TBA)

A.J. Burnett took about a $4 million pay cut this season to sign with Pittsburgh after spending one long season last year with Philadelphia. It has been a great deal for the Pirates as Burnett is 2-1 with a 1.60 ERA. Not bad for a 38-year-old who led the majors with 18 losses last season and then declined a $12.75 million player option. Burnett has allowed two runs or fewer in all seven outings this season. Burnett faced the Cubs on April 20 and allowed a run and eight hits over six innings in a no-decision. Starlin Castro is a career .469 hitter off him in 32 at-bats. Miguel Montero is 4-for-7 with two RBIs. Jake Arrieta (4-3, 3.00) had struggled in two May starts but dominated the Mets on Tuesday, allowing a run and three hits in eight innings, striking out a season-high 10. He was opposite Burnett on April 20 and got the win by allowing a run over seven innings. Andrew McCutchen is 6-for-14 with two doubles off him.

Key trends: The Pirates are 1-5 in Burnett's past six vs. teams with a winning record. The Cubs are 6-2 in Arrieta's past eight at home. The under is 4-0-1 in his past five at Wrigley.

Early lean: The Cubs have been paying off all week, so why stop now?


Nationals at Padres (+112, 7)

I've said in this space previously that Washington's Stephen Strasburg is one of the most overrated pitchers in MLB and that the books totally overvalue him. Well, Strasburg (2-4, 6.06) is simply not good right now. He was bombed for eight runs (career high) and eight hits over 3.1 innings last time out in Arizona. Strasburg had his start pushed back a day after leaving his previous outing after three innings with lower back tightness and had said he was fine. The Padres' Will Venable is 4-for-13 off him with two extra-base hits. Justin Upton is 7-for-27 with a homer but seven strikeouts. San Diego's Ian Kennedy (2-2, 5.92) also was hit hard in his last start, giving up five runs and eight hits in 4.2 innings against the Mariners. Jayson Werth is 5-for-14 with a homer off him. He has a wrist injury suffered Friday, but X-rays were negative. However, he may have to sit this one out.

Key trends: Washington is 17-2 in Strasburg's past 19 on Sunday (what's up with that?). San Diego is 6-2 in Kennedy's past eight vs. teams with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in Strasburg's past four vs. San Diego.

Early lean: I'm not falling into the trap. Padres and over.


Tigers at Cardinals (-139, 7.5)

This is your Sunday night ESPN game and will have live betting at sportsbooks. It's also the last meeting between these clubs until possibly October, when it could certainly happen again for a fourth time in the World Series. That exact matchup is currently +2100. Alfredo Simon starts for the Tigers, and he's familiar with the Cardinals from last season while he was with Cincinnati. He was 2-0 with a 3.44 ERA against them. Simon (4-1, 3.05) allowed only a run over 7.2 innings last time out vs. Minnesota. Matt Holliday is just 3-for-16 off him. Jhonny Peralta 2-for-11 but with a solo homer. Lance Lynn (2-3, 3.27) had his best outing of the season on Tuesday, shutting out Cleveland over six innings on four hits. Cabrera is 1-for-2 with a double off him. Remember, no DH for Detroit so that means no Victor Martinez.

Key trends: The Tigers are 5-1 in their past six in Game 3 of a series. The Cards are 2-7 in Lynn's past nine following a quality start. The over is 6-0 in his past six on Sunday.

Early lean: Cardinals and over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Basketball Betting: Streaks, Tips, Notes

L.A. Clippers at Houston Rockets May 17, 2015

Houston Rockets on the ropes in GM-6 trailing by 13 heading into the fourth quarter stymied Clippers offensively outscoring Griffin and company 40-15 to pull off a shocking 119-107 victory forcing a Game 7 at the Toyota Center in Houston.

Rockets enter a dismal 1-3 SU, 0-3-1 ATS its last four GM-7's while Clippers come in 3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS its last four WIN or ELSE games. A few other betting trends to ponder when handicapping this game. Rockets have a solid 30-17 ATS record on home court, Clippers a mediocre 25-21-1 ATS mark away from home. Rockets are 11-3 ATS at home this season when off of a win by a margin of 10 points or more, Clippers are 5-2 ATS on the road off a 10 or more point loss. Rockets are 5-2 ATS following a double-digit post season win, Clippers are a money-burning 3-7-1 ATS off a double-digit playoff loss.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sunday's six-pack

-- Rangers 2, Lightning 1-- All 13 Ranger playoff games were decided by a goal.

-- Louisiana Tech hired Miami assistant Eric Konkol as basketball coach; he was the top assistant for Jim Larranaga for the last 11 years.

-- Miguel Cabrera and Adrian Beltre both hit their 400th home runs this week.

-- American Pharoah is first horse to win the Preakness from the pole since 1994.

-- White Sox 4, A's 3-- Oakland is a depressing 1-12 in one-run games; if this was 1980 and Billy Martin was in charge, he'd never, ever utilize this bullpen.

-- Rory McIlroy shot a 61 Saturday, leads at Quail Hollow by four strokes.