Jeff Benton
My seven-day free-play winning streak came to a halt Saturday, as the Reds got blitzed in Houston. Still, I’m 16-7 over the last 23 days with freebies, and we’ll get back on track Sunday by shifting to the NBA and taking the Hornets plus the points at Denver.
Denver had an unbelievable regular season, and it has Chauncey Billups to thank for that. But the fact remains that the Nuggets will take the court with a ton of pressure tonight, as this team has gotten bounced out of the first round of the playoffs six straight times going back to 1995, including each of the last five years. During this run of postseason futility, the Nuggets are 4-23 SU, including getting swept by the Lakers in four games last year. Going back to 1989, Denver has lost eight of nine first-round series, going 7-31 SU!
You can’t tell me that something like that won’t be on the players’ minds when they take the floor for this game. On top of that, the Hornets are hardly a gimme for Denver. Yes, they didn’t have quite the success they had last year, thanks in most part to key injuries, but New Orleans still won 49 games (only five fewer than the Nuggets) and it still has the most dynamic point guard in the game in Chris Paul (a guy that can absolutely neutralize Billups).
The Hornets have matched up well against the Nuggets, too. The teams split four meetings this year and have split the last 10 contests, but New Orleans has gotten the money in five of the last seven matchups, including three of the last four in Denver. In fact, the Hornets are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings overall, 7-2 ATS in their last nine trips to the Mile High City, and the road team has covered in 11 of the last 16 series matchups. Throw in Denver’s 3-15 ATS record in its last 18 first-round playoff games, and I’ll take these significant points in what I believe will be a very tightly contested game throughout.
5♦ NEW ORLEANS