Sunday's NBA Essentials
By Tony Mejia
Nets at Bucks – 3:05 PM EST
Over the last 10 games, the 8-2 Nets are the hottest team in the Eastern Conference. Center Brook Lopez, healthy and in a groove, has averaged 26.2 points and 9.6 rebounds over the last 13 games. He’s put up six double-doubles and blocked three or more shots in six of those games, leading the Nets to a 10-3 mark. Failing to shoot over 50 percent in only two of those games, Lopez is 135-for-245 (55 pct) from the field and 50-for-59 (84.8 pct) from the free-throw line. The run started with a 32-point, 18-rebound, five-block night in a 129-127 triple-OT home win over these Bucks on Feb. 20. Deron Williams was a -20 in plus/minus in that game, playing just 22 minutes due to his ineffectiveness. It was a turning point for him as well, as he’s averaged 15.5 points and 8.5 assists since, racking up five double-doubles. He’s shooting 56 percent from 3-point range in April. Rookie Bojan Bogdanovic has emerged as a massive x-factor and actually played a game-high 49 minutes against Milwaukee, scoring 17 points. Over the last four games, he’s shot 54 percent from the field and 11-for-19 from 3-point range, averaging 17 points per game. Seven of the Nets last eight games have gone over the posted total.
The Bucks are a playoff team, but still need to take care of business to wrap up the No. 6 seed and avoid the Cavaliers and Hawks. A win against these Nets would even their record at 40-40 and clinch that spot since Boston would only be able to match them and would lose a tie-breaker. Giannis Antetokounmpo bounced back from a puzzling benching with a team-high 23 points in Friday’s 99-91 win over the Knicks in New York. Zaza Pachulia finished with 22 points, 21 rebounds and seven assists in the March 20 triple-OT loss in Brooklyn, while Khris Middleton led the way with 29 points, one of his career-high. Michael Carter-Williams, the key to making any surprise run come postseason, shot 7-for-26 in the last meeting but is 21-for-33 over the past two games, averaging 24.5 points and 7.5 assists. His most impressive stat may actually be having limited his turnovers to just two in each game, normally a problem area for the developing point guard. Ersan Ilyasova averaged a season-best 15.5 points in March and opened April with three straight double-digit scoring games, but has shot 3-for-14 over the last two, averaging 4 points per game. We’ll see who can get on the same page with who here, especially given the importance of the game for both teams. Jason Kidd is likely to learn a lot about who he’ll be able to trust going forward. Three of Milwaukee’s last four games have gone over the posted total after a run of 4-of-5 unders, certainly tied heavily into Carter-Williams’ improved efficiency.
Thunder at Pacers – 6:05 PM EST
Desperation should be on full display since the playoff lives of both teams will get a major boost or take a significant hit depending on this result. Oklahoma City snapped a four-game losing streak in Friday’s 116-103 win against the depleted Kings. OKC has won only one of its past five road games, significant since that dates all the way back to March 5 due to how often its been fortunate enough to play at home. Russell Westbrook’s MVP push has taken a hit since he’s shot less than 40 percent from the field in seven of the last 12 games. Westbrook has made just 12 of his last 50 3-point attempts but has racked up six triple-doubles in his last 19 games, maintaining his incredible stat-stuffing in spite of the dip in offensive efficiency. Westbrook finished with 20 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists in a 105-92 home victory over Indiana on Feb. 24. Obviously, he’s tired some in the past few weeks having to do too much without Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka. Enes Kanter has averaged 20.6 points and 11.9 rebounds in emerging as Westbrook’s primary tag-team partner, but the defensive deficiencies that came to light in Utah have been a part of the Thunder’s struggles. Nick Collison returned to the lineup on Friday, playing 20 minutes after a nine-game absence due to an ankle injury. His steady influence on both ends of the floor was missed. OKC is 1-7 ATS since March 25.
The Pacers enter the day one game behind Boston and Brooklyn and would lose head-to-head tiebreakers against both, so holding serve at home here is imperative. Their last two games are home against Washington and at Memphis, both teams that should enter the final week of the regular season with something to play for, seeding-wise. Division’s top record back in the strike-shortened ’98-‘99 season. Indiana has won four consecutive games, but all of its victims are Eastern Conference non-playoff teams. This will be a different animal. Paul George is back and played in each of the last three games, but is on a minutes restriction limiting him to roughly 15 per game. He’s averaged 11.0 points and 3.0 rebounds since returning, shooting 6-for-12 from 3-point range. Roy Hibbert hasn’t embraced being able to toil in relative obscurity compared to the spotlight that has accompanied him in recent years. He’s underachieved most of the season and is averaging 9.0 and 6.7 rebounds over the last 10 games. Point guard George Hill, an excellent defender likely in line for the bulk of the work against Westbrook, averaged 19.4 points and shot 51.5 percent in March, emerging as Indiana’s most consistent performer. He’s slowed down of late, shooting just 33 percent over his last four games, averaging only 10 points. The Pacers will be playing their 40th home date at Bankers Life Fieldhouse but are just 21-18 there, a far cry from the 35-6 mark they put together last year. Ten of Indiana’s last 14 games have gone over the posted total.
Pelicans at Rockets – 7:05 PM EST
Despite an identical 43-36 record, New Orleans would get the nod over OKC thanks to a head-to-head tiebreaker, having beaten the Thunder in three of four. Anthony Davis led the Pelicans with 19 points and nine rebounds in Friday’s 90-75 win over Phoenix despite taking a blow to the throat that forced him to leave the game and kept him from being able to talk to reporters afterward. He’s expected to play without any limitations. Point guard Jrue Holiday ended a 41-game absence (stress reaction, leg) against the Suns, coming off the bench. Despite shooting just 1-for-7, he was a +14 in 16 minutes, making an impact with his defense, ball handling and distribution. He’s not expected to play more than 15-to-20 minutes for the remainder of the regular season. Eric Gordon set a personal single-season record with his 132nd 3-pointer against Phoenix and is 15-for-30 from beyond the arc in April. Former Rocket Omer Asik had a season-high 18 rebounds in just 22 minutes on Friday. New Orleans has won six of eight and are 5-3 ATS in that span. The under has gone 4-0-1 in the Pelicans’ last five.
Josh Smith became the target of Gregg Popovich’s well-played Hack-a-someone, as the veteran Spurs coach chose to take the ball out of MVP candidate James Harden’s hands by putting Smith on the line 26 times. It worked since he made just 12 and San Antonio went on to a 104-103 road win, dropping Houston a half-game behind the Southwest Division-leading Spurs and Grizzlies in addition to the Clippers. Fortunately, the Pelicans are their last opponent with a winning record remaining, as the team’s last two games are at Charlotte and home against Utah. Harden wasn’t allowed to get into a cooking rhythm on Friday, leading to a 5-for-19 shooting night and a 16-point game, his lowest figure in the last 10 outings. Dwight Howard shot 6-for-9 from the free-throw line and finished with 12 points and 14 rebounds, his second consecutive double-double. It marked the first time he’d done that in back-to-back games since before re-injuring his knee in January. The Rockets are still getting used to life without injured starting point guard Patrick Beverley and saw Jason Terry play over 30 minutes for just the seventh time all season against San Antonio. Houston had been 6-0 when he played starter’s minutes. The Rockets are 10-4 SU and 9-5 ATS in their last 14. They’re just 1-2 against New Orleans, but did win the most recent meeting, 95-93, on March 25. Four of their last five games have gone over the posted total.
Suns at Spurs – 7:05 PM EST
The Suns are mathematically eliminated from the playoff chase and will guarantee themselves a losing record with their next setback. They’ve lost eight of nine, beating the Jazz at home by two for their only victory. Phoenix has lost five consecutive road games and will be playing their final game of the season away from home. Eric Bledsoe was left as his team’s primary catalyst due to the trades of Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas as well as the season-ending injury to their would-be replacement, Brandon Knight. Bledsoe is by far the top defender of all the guards mentioned, but his inability to shoot has really stifled Phoenix’s free-wheeling offense. Over the last 12 games, he’s 11-for-45 (24.4 pct) from 3-point range and his team is just 4-8. Guard Gerald Green is questionable after aggravating a back injury. The Suns have seen an astounding 15 of their last 18 games go under the posted total.
The Spurs were written off by many – again – when they dropped four consecutive games coming out of the All-Star break. Since then, counting Friday’s thriller at Houston, San Antonio has won 20 of 23. The run, coupled with Saturday night’s loss from Memphis in L.A., has evened up the Southwest Division. Since the Grizzlies are incredibly banged up entering the final two games, wins against the Suns and Pelicans could land the No. 2 seed, avoiding a dangerous-looking matchup with Golden State until a potential conference finals. Tony Parker followed up a 27-point game against the Rockets at home on Wednesday by shooting 1-for-7 in Houston, so clearly consistency eludes him. That can’t be said about reigning Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard, who has shot over 56 percent and averaged 19.3 points during San Antonio’s 10-game winning streak. Tiago Splitter (calf) is out indefinitely, while Matt Bonner is also having back issues and is considered doubtful. Portland is playing the second of a back-to-back and are 10-6 in this situation. This is the Spurs home finale. They’re 12-2 ATS in their last 14, winning 13 of them straight up. Six of their last nine games have gone under the posted total.
