UFC Fight Night 86
By Brian Edwards
The Ultimate Fighting Championship is set to make its debut in Zagreb, Croatia, with a 13-fight card that gets going Sunday morning at 10:30 a.m. Eastern on Fight Pass.
The prelims will begin on Fox Sports 1 at noon Eastern. The main card starts at 2:00 p.m. Eastern, with the headliner featuring former champion Junior dos Santos versus red-hot ‘Big’ Ben Rothwell in a crucial heavyweight scrap.
Rothwell is on the cusp of a title shot, while Dos Santos is teetering on the verge of a rapid fall down the heavyweight loop’s rankings with another defeat.
Rothwell (36-9 MMA, 6-3 UFC) has won four fights in a row and five of his last six. All five victories have come by finish, including knockouts of Brendan Schaub, Brandon Vera and Alistair Overeem.
In his last two Octagon appearances, Rothwell submitted Matt Mitrione and Josh Barnett with gogo chokes. Barnett had never been submitted in 41 previous professional MMA fights.
Rothwell has a great chin, one-punch knockout power, terrific size and he’s brimming with confidence.
Dos Santos (17-4 MMA, 11-3 UFC) won the UFC’s heavyweight title at UFC on FOX 1 in Los Angeles on Nov. 12 of 2011. He needed only 64 seconds to KO Cain Velasquez and earn KO of the Night honors.
Dos Santos would make his first title defense against former two-time champ Frank Mir, scoring a second-round KO at UFC 146.
The rematch with Velasquez would take place at UFC 155 on Dec. 29 of 2012. The result couldn’t have possibly been more different than the first meeting.
Velasquez absolutely dominated Dos Santos, applying relentless pressure for 25 minutes. The Mexican American destroyed the Brazilian with an array of kicks and strikes that had Dos Santos badly beaten before the end of Round 2.
Herb Dean could’ve intervened at any time in Rounds 3-5. Dos Santos looked horrible with swelling covering nearly every inch of his face. His corner never should’ve let him go out for the fifth and final stanza.
He did, however, and took unnecessary punishment that one could argue has impacted him ever since. Dos Santos responded with a third-round KO win over Mark Hunt at UFC 160 in a Fight of the Night performance.
The win over Hunt set up Dos Santos-Velasquez III at UFC 166. The trilogy bout was basically a repeat of the second fight. It was all Velasquez from start to finish.
Yet again, I felt JDS’s team/corner was irresponsible in allowing Dos Santos to go out for the fifth round. This time around, Velasquez got the KO with a slam and subsequent punch.
Only common sense was needed to reasonably wonder if JDS could ever be the same fighter after taking another ruthless beating that left his face a swollen and bloody mess.
Dos Santos understandably took more than a year off before returning for a UFC on FOX main event in Phoenix against Stipe Miocic on Dec. 13 of 2014. Miocic jumped all over Dos Santos early, bloodying him up with a slew of combinations.
By midway through Round 2, Dos Santos appeared to have a broken nose and was in all sorts of trouble. Nevertheless, his desire and toughness never waned.
Although I disagreed with the decision that went Dos Santos’s way after he clearly won Round 5, the former champ showed heart galore in battling back and eventually getting the victory. Miocic-Dos Santos won FOTN honors.
After another one-year absence from fighting, JDS returned at UFC Orlando this past December. I went to this event and recommended Alistair Overeem over Dos Santos as a healthy underdog that was in the +300 range in the 5-10 days leading up to the show.
Overeem took the victory when a left hook floored Dos Santos and the ref intervened after subsequent punches. JDS was not happy with the stoppage, but I felt like it was reasonable.
With three defeats in his last five fights, Dos Santos is in desperation mode here. Not in terms of being cut from the promotion, but Dos Santos is no longer a young pup. He’s now 32 and considering the damage he’s taken, I’d call it an old 32. A loss here wouldn’t completely destroy any hopes of another title run, but it would undoubtedly make the notion a process that would take years and at least four quality victories.
As of late Friday morning, most betting shops had Dos Santos installed as a -130 favorite. Rothwell, who was a -120 ‘chalk’ several days ago, is now the +110 underdog. The total is 1.5 rounds (‘over’ -145, ‘under’ +125).
Prediction: Dos Santos is at the very top of my fade list these days. As noted above, I think the fourth and fifth rounds of the last two fights against Cain took years off his career. But that doesn’t mean this play is all about fading Dos Santos. To be clear, Rothwell is a play-on fighter right now, especially as an underdog. I like Rothwell +110 for five units! I’m also bullish on the ‘under’ at +125 for two units.
In the co-main event, Gabriel Gonzaga will collide with Derrick Lewis in another heavyweight matchup. As of late Friday morning, most spots had Lewis (14-4-0-1 MMA, 5-2 UFC) installed as a -140 favorite, leaving Gonzaga at +120 on the comeback. The total was 1.5 rounds (‘under’ -150, ‘over’ +130).
Lewis, the former Legacy FC heavyweight champion, is a New Orleans product who trains out of Houston. ‘The Black Beast’ has five KO wins in seven Octagon appearances. He has won back-to-back fights over Damian Grabowski and Viktor Pesta.
The ‘under’ is 5-2 in Lewis’s seven fights. He lost by KO to Matt Mitrione in 41 seconds and was beaten on a heel hook by Shawn ‘The Savage’ Jordan in New Orleans last June.
Gonzaga (17-10 MMA, 12-9 UFC) owns a 5-4 record since coming out of retirement for his second tour of duty in the UFC. However, after going 4-1 in his first five bouts upon coming back to the promotion, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace has lost three of his last four fights.
The slump started with a decision loss to Miocic, followed up by a first-round KO loss against Mitrione. Then Gonzaga was KO’d by Mirko Cro Cop in a FOTN main event in Poland. Gonzaga avoided a four-fight slide by capturing a decision win over Konstantin Erokhin in Las Vegas this past December.
Prediction: Lewis has more power and I give him the advantage in the stand-up game. But the same was said of Gonzaga’s first fight against Cro Cop way back in 2007 at UFC 70 when Gonzaga earned a title shot with a head-kick KO of head-kick master. If the fight goes to the ground, the advantage will be Gonzaga’s with BJJ skills. I like Lewis and the ‘under’ but both carry with them fairly ‘chalky’ prices for my standards. Nevertheless, I’ll go with Lewis (-140) and the ‘under’ (-150) for one unit apiece.
Curtis ‘Razor’ Blaydes (5-0 MMA, 0-0 UFC) will make his promotional debut against Francis Ngannou, in another heavyweight showdown. Blaydes is a -150 favorite, while Ngannou (6-1 MMA, 1-0 UFC) is the +130 ‘dog. The total is 1.5 rounds (‘over’ -140, ‘under’ +120).
Blaydes was the 2012 NJCAA national champion in the heavyweight division while at Harper College in Illinois. He is originally an Oklahoma native.
Ngannou beat Luis Henrique by second-round KO in his UFC debut this past December.
Prediction: Since I’ve seen either guy fight, it’s a little absurd for me to post a pick. With that said, I’d go ‘under’ or pass. I’ll pass.
The rest of the main card looks like this…
Heavyweight: Timothy Johnson (-150) vs. Marci Tybura +130)
Light Heavyweight: Jan Blachowicz (-- 350) vs. Igor Pokrajac (+290)
Women’s Strawweight: Maryna Moroz (-185) vs. Cristina Stanciu (+160)
**Octagon Nuggets**
-- Miesha Tate will make her first title defense against Amanda Nunes at UFC 200. There’s no word yet on where this fight will be slated on the card. I’m sure it’ll be on the main card, but it certainly won’t be the co-main event.
-- Tate has been quoted in the last 24 hours as saying the UFC indicated a rematch with Holly Holm “wasn’t necessary.” I know the UFC has had way too many immediate rematches lately, and another (Condit-Lawler II) might still be on the horizon. But still, it’s almost as if Dana, Lorenzo and Co. are trying to stick it to Holm and her managerial team for not holding out for the rematch with Ronda Rousey. Then again, maybe this maneuver to have Tate defend her belt quickly will make for a Rousey-Holm rematch before Rousey fights to regain the title she once held? We shall see. The odds for Tate-Nunes are not out yet.
-- Another women’s fight has been added to the UFC 200 card: ‘Alpha’ Cat Zingano vs. Julianna Pena. Zingano hasn’t fought since losing to Rousey in 16 seconds by armbar at UFC 184 on Feb. 28 of 2015. She owns a 9-1 career record, including wins by third-round finishes of both Tate and Nunes. No odds for Zingano-Pena yet, but I expect Zingano to be a healthy favorite in the -220 range.
-- Darrell Horcher will make his UFC debut against Khabib Nurmagomedov next Saturday in Tampa. Nurmagomedov was scheduled to face Tony Ferguson in a lightweight title eliminator until Ferguson had to pull out a few days ago with an injury. The main event is now Rashad Evans vs. Glover Teixeira. Nurmagomedov-Horcher is still on the main card, but the co-main features a rematch between Dan Henderson and Lyoto ‘The Dragon’ Machida.
-- 5Dimes currently has Nate Diaz as a -120 favorite for his rematch against Conor McGregor (+100) in the UFC 200 headliner. The betting shop opened McGregor at -170 more than a week ago. Jose Aldo is currently at -120 ‘chalk’ vs. Frankie Edgar (+100) in their 200 showdown for the interim 145-pound strap.
