NCAAB Tournament - Round of 32
By Dave Essler
Kansas: Coming into this Tournament, Kansas got zero respect whatsoever - as a #2 seed they were 40:1 in many places. Not that they'll win - but they were 6-2 in neutral site games and are probably being discounted even further due to their 72-40 loos to Kentucky. Hence, they're probably a great value ATS bet. They were 4-1 ATS as a road underdog. Still super young - and history (this season) suggests they'll struggle more against pressure defense like Witchita State more than they would against Indiana. Kansas does the three things you need to do to win. They play defense, they can shoot free throws, and the rebound well. Add that to Bill Self and I'd have a hard time discounting them ever, and at 40:1 should have bet that if for no other reason than to hedge out of it when the time is right. Some would disagree with that theory - but we all have different ways of getting to the finish line.
Michigan State: Yes, people love Izzo. And I guess in hindsight how could I not have taken the Spartans in that spot, if for no other reason than it was against a team with really zero history of game of that magnitude. However, Virginia will be the best team they've faced in forever - save the Badgers, who they lost two twice. They do everything right, but their weakness has been free throw shooting all season and in my opinion somewhere along the line that will haunt them. That'll probably happen against a team that defends the perimeter well, since that's such a large part of their offense. That may well be Virginia.
Northern Iowa: A public team everyone knows about, and one that plays similar to Wyoming, whose glass slipper didn't fit. If NI is going to get beat, the only way is by a team simply hitting all their outside shots - not unlike VCU almost did to Ohio State and DID do to Northern Iowa this season. In their loss to the Shockers, Witchita State shot 11-24 from behind the arc. They're a simple team to figure and a simple team, on paper, to beat. However, Louisville and their weaker offense may be an excellent matchup for them, at least ATS.
West Virginia: Buffalo was a trendy team and I could have made a case for them, but it appears that the simple matter of WVU playing in the Big-12 was just too much of a step-up in class. They're such an enigma because they can play some bad-ass pressure defense but have real trouble scoring, and if team break their press, they're just not a great half-court team. Three losses to Baylor and two to Iowa State - teams that are just completely different styles, make them tough to handicap - at least for me. But, they are a great offensive rebounding team and are coached "above average". Huggins is good, but not great, IMO, and if he were "great" then Buffalo wouldn't have made such a game of it. Perhaps they (WVU) were discounted down the stretch without Staten and Brown.
Witchita State: For them, they appear to be somewhat under-the-radar this season. They don't have Early, obviously, but they have all four starters back from a team that was undefeated last season until Kentucky beat them in the second round. That really was kind of a BS draw for them - and this one doesn't appear to be much better. When they do lose, it's to the ugly teams like Northern Iowa and George Washington, so they've got a real shot to beat Kansas. However, teams like Butler and/or Notre Dame they might struggle with.
Louisville: Obviously they've got the coach that can take them there, and the further these things go on the more that matters. Losing early in the ACC Tournament may have been a blessing in disguise, as it often is. They get eight days' rest before they have to play, and that's where Pitino comes in. Very difficult to fade Louisville in those situations. Last year they were knocked out by Kentucky in a game where they did most things right except rebound. So what does Pitino do - get bigger. They've got Onuako inside and two huge Freshman coming of the bench - something they didn't have last year. With only one days' rest this season they've played exactly two games, winning but failing to cover both of them.
Virginia: I'm not as high on them, nor have I been all season, as most. Another team like the other Top seeds, they were 26-3 as a favorite and just 15-13-1 SU in those games. And as you'd expect the won and didn't cover against Belmont. Yes, Virginia, there is a pattern developing with these top teams in terms of not covering numbers, especially in this Tournament where there is so much public money and you're paying a bigger premium that you would have even a week ago. I have a friend (ok, two) that does nothing in the first round except take all 32 underdogs, and I can't remember him ever losing money - or at least much. Sooner or later Virginia IS going to struggle against a bigger and/or faster team, as all their loses were to the aforementioned - Duke, North Carolina, a L'ville. It's not likely that it's Michigan State or Georgia.
Maryland: This is a team I have struggled to figure out. They're a huge team but for a team with such length just doesn't score inside as much as you'd think, but they DO get to the line and shoot well from it. Their only loss since the 8th of February was to the buzz saw that is Michigan State, and only by four. Of course they then struggle with Valpo, who is very good, but because they struggled might have some value against West Virginia. If you can figure out who wins the rebounding battle here, you've probably got the winner. That's the case a lot, as we've seen, but WVU is the #1 offensive rebounding team in the nation.
Oregon: We were all over the Ducks, and don't under estimate Altman in Nebraska. Every year there's a point guard that carries his team further than expected, and Young is good enough to do that. Twenty-seven points and scored from everywhere on the floor - it's in the write up. And Young could be THAT GUY that's the point guard every year that carries a team further than most start. Ala D-Wade with Marquette. The Ducks could actually be a good tough matchup for Wisconsin, who in their loss to Duke let the Blue Devils shoot 58% from behind the arc. If Benjamin gets hot the Ducks are capable of that.
Wisconsin: Looking at this ATS - the big thing in this second round is the turnaround. It's not often that most of these teams play on one days' rest, but the Badgers played a pre-season Tournament in the Bahamas and beat UAB, G-Town, and Oklahoma back to back to back. That speaks volumes. However, there's a difference being winning and covering the spread - and Wisconsin was 19-2 SU in Conference play - but 9-11-1 ATS. So, yes, you'll pay serious premium the next couple of rounds no matter who they play - and it's probably not the best bet.
Duke: There may be more value in Duke than there has been in some time - due in part to them getting throttled by Notre Dame and just not being tossed around as a viable candidate to win this thing. However, that loss to Notre Dame was last Friday so they've got extra rest, which is huge. They've obviously got the coach that can get it done. They're 4-2 ATS on a neutral site, and if they get that far, they're 4-0 as an underdog. Let's not forget about these guys.Their big win (in our write ups as a potential) probably won't devalue them too much because most people expected that. Duke losing early to Notre Dame is just more rest, and that's actually something Coach K has been big on for years.
Gonzaga: Because THEY are "rumored" to be able to win this thing - you'll pay for that, too. They were 2-3-1 ATS (6-0 SU) in neutral site games - and to take that even further, they were 12-1 SU on one days' rest, yet just 6-5-1 ATS in those games. I am not a HUGE trends guy, but let's not ignore them, either. Probably the best thing that happened to Gonzaga was losing the season finale to BYU - it woke them up and took some of the pressure off. If you don't know how to lose you can't win. IMO Davidson would have stood a far better shot, at least ATS, than Iowa. Coming in, IMO, Iowa still didn't have a good win.
Iowa: Was it a case of Davidson being that bad or Iowa that good? Probably both, but it does take some value out against Gonzaga, IMO. And I still don't think Iowa has that good win, really. But, perhaps I am wrong and they are getting it together. They ARE a tremendous offensive rebounding team, they shoot free throws well, play reasonable defense, and of course have the length. Perhaps they do give Gonzaga a game. Put it this way, I won't lay the points.
