STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 3/2/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Sunday, 3/2/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Sunday's Notebook
•Iowa has gotten soft, losing its last three games while allowing 79-95-93 points; Hawkeyes covered once in last four home games (3-4 overall as a home favorite)- they're 2-11 in last 13 games with Purdue, but did beat Boilermakers by 10 here LY. Big Dozen double digit home favorites are 12-9 versus spread. Purdue lost three in row, eight of last ten games; they're 3-3 as road dogs, losing last five road games by 3-9-11-18-19 points.
•Ohio State won eight of last ten games with Indiana, winning four of last five visits here; Buckeyes won six of last eight games overall, but lost at Penn State in last game, a bad loss. OSU is 4-4 on Big Dozen road, 2-3 as road favorites. Big Dozen home underdogs of 3 or less points are 3-5 versus spread. Indiana lost four of last six games; they're 4-3 at home, 3-1 as home underdogs- dogs covered five of their seven home games.
•Maryland won last three games with Clemson by 2-2-13 points; Terrapins lost four of last six visits here, but won last one by hoop in '12- they've lost three of last four games overall but are 4-0-1 versus spread in last five, losing last three away games by 12-2-8 points. ACC home favorites of 5 or less points are 8-16 versus spread. Clemson lost four of its last six games; they're 2-2 as home favorites, with home wins by 13-8-4-17.
•Louisiana Tech won six of last seven games but split its last four games on road; they got star Appleby back for limited action (5 minutes) in last game, for first time since Jan 9. UAB just won three straight road games by total of nine points; they're 3-3 at home, with underdogs covering 5 of the 6 games. C-USA home underdogs of 8 or less points are 14-13 versus spread. Blazers lost three of their last five home games.
•Villanova (-2.5) won 94-85 in OT at Marquette Jan 25, after blowing an 11-point lead in last 4:53 of regulation; Wildcats were 10-28 from arc, Eagles just 2-11. Villanova won eight of last nine games, is 4-2 as home favorite, with five of six home wins by 17+ points. Big East double digit home favorites are 10-5 versus spread. Marquette lost three of last four trips to Villanova, with losses by 18-5-4 points.
•North Texas won its last four games, winning three in row by hoop each, after starting 2-8 in league. Mean Green lost four of its last six at home, is 1-2 as home dog. C-USA home underdogs of less than 5 points are 7-9 versus spread. UTEP lost three of last five games, is 5-1 versus spread on road, 3-0 as road favorite, winning away games by 9-2-11-14-18 points, with only road loss at Southern Mississippi.
•Wisconsin won four in row, 17 of last 19 versus Penn State, winning by 6-3 in last two visits to Happy Valley, which is fairly close to where coach Ryan grew up. Badgers won last six games overall after a 1-5 skid- they won last three road games, by 12-13-5 points. Penn State lost four of its last six games; they're 1-4 as home underdogs. Big Dozen home dogs of 5 or less points are 8-9 against the spread.
•Southern Miss won three in row, 10 of last 12 games, but they lost last two road games, at UAB/Middle Tennessee; Golden Eagles are 3-2 as a road favorite, with all three road wins (3-3) by 10+ points. C-USA home underdogs of less than 5 points are 7-9 versus spread. Florida Atlantic lost its last four games, is 0-1-1 as home dog, losing home games (2-4) by 5-4-19-2 points. USM forces turnovers 24.3% of time, #1 in C-USA.
•Florida State won its last eight games with Georgia Tech, winning three in row at home by 4-2-14 points; Seminoles lost six of last nine games, but won last game at Pittsburgh- they've lost three of last four at home, are 2-4 as home favorites, with one home win by more than a hoop. ACC home favorites of 9+ points are 11-14 versus spread. Tech lost five of its last six games, but they've covered last five games on foreign soil.
•New Mexico (-12) beat Nevada 90-72 at Pit Feb 15, leading 48-24 at half in game that was made respectable by Nevada making 11-21 on the arc. Lobos are 3-0 versus Nevada in Mountain West play, winning by 13 here in LY's visit. MW home underdogs of 6 or less points are 7-11 versus spread. Wolf Pack lost five of last six games, with only win at Air Force; they're 4-3 at home, 1-1 as home dogs. Lobos are 1-3 as road favorites.
•Arizona (-5) won 60-57 at Stanford Jan 29, its 8th win in row over the Cardinal, who led by 7 with 12:34 left but scored only four points in last 10:00 of game. Stanford lost last four visits to Tucson by 14-8-10-7 points; they're 2-2 as road dogs, losing away games by 9-17-4-12- they won five of seven overall. Wildcats are 4-4 as home favorites, winning last two at home by 22-28. Pac-12 double digit home favorites are 14-12.
•UCLA gets suspended stars Anderson/Adams back from one-game ban after Bruins lost in double OT to Oregon Thursday; Bruins (-5) lost at Oregon State 71-67 Feb 2, making just 6-21 from arc. Beavers lost last eight visits to Westwood, last three by 10 or less points. Pac-12 home favorites of 9+ points are 18-13 versus spread. Bruins are 6-1 as favorites in Pauley Pavilion, with only non-cover when shorthanded Thursday.
•Manhattan won four of last five games with Canisius, winning 84-73 in first meeting (+2.5) Feb 7 in Buffalo, making 11-22 from arc, surviving 20 turnovers (-9). Jaspers had emotional OT win over Iona Friday night; they're 5-4 as home favorites, winning last three at home by 20-18-3 points. Canisius won/covered its last four road games; they lost last two visits here, by 13-13. MAAC home favorites of 6 or less points are 13-20-1.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- IOWA is 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was IOWA 76.3, OPPONENT 66.0
-- ARIZONA is 12-2 UNDER (+9.8 Units) after 2 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers this season.
The average score was ARIZONA 71.7, OPPONENT 56.6.
-- STANFORD is 35-12 (+21.8 Units) against the 1rst half line in a road game where the first half total is 60.5 to 65.5 since 1997.
The average score was STANFORD 33.0, OPPONENT 30.3.
-- OHIO ST is 22-5 UNDER (+16.5 Units) the 1rst half total after 2 straight games with 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OHIO ST 29.7, OPPONENT 28.0.
-- SEAN MILLER is 17-2 UNDER (+14.8 Units) off a home blowout win by 20 points or more as the coach of ARIZONA.
The average score was MILLER 74.9, OPPONENT 57.4.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- TULANE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games this season.
The average score was TULANE 66.6, OPPONENT 62.7.
-- NEVADA is 11-1 OVER (+9.9 Units) versus teams who are called for 3+ less fouls/game than their opponents after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEVADA 66.3, OPPONENT 75.7.
-- WISCONSIN is 8-1 (+6.9 Units) against the 1rst half line in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was WISCONSIN 33.9, OPPONENT 25.7.
-- RIDER is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games this season.
The average score was RIDER 29.3, OPPONENT 30.2.
-- JIMMY PATSOS is 6-27 ATS (-23.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games in all games he has coached since 1997.
The average score was PATSOS 68.1, OPPONENT 66.6.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - An underdog versus the money line (UAB) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (40-42.5%), dominant rebounding team (>=+6 reb/game) against a good rebounding team (+3 to +6 reb/game), after 3 straight games where both teams score 70 points or less.
(42-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (91.3%, +35.8 units. Rating = 5*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -173.8
The average score in these games was: Team 73.6, Opponent 62.7 (Average point differential = +11)
The situation's record this season is: (7-0, +7 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (22-1, +19.5 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (102-31, +36.1 units).
-- Play On - Road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (TX-SAN ANTONIO) - a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's), after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread against opponent hot team - covering 12 or more of their last 15 against the spread.
(29-5 since 1997.) (85.3%, +23.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (10-24)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 10.2
The average score in these games was: Team 67.7, Opponent 72.4 (Average point differential = -4.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 17 (51.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-1).
-- Play Over - Home teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (FLORIDA ST) - excellent defensive team (<=40%) against a good defensive team (40-42.5%) after 15+ games, in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) after 15+ games.
(51-20 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.8%, +29.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 134.7
The average score in these games was: Team 72, Opponent 70.2 (Total points scored = 142.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 37 (52.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (6-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (24-9).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (80-49).
-- Play Over - Home teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (PENN ST) - poor passing team, averaging <=12 assists/game on the season in March games, after playing a game where both teams score 65 points or less, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent.
(51-20 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.8%, +29.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 134.7
The average score in these games was: Team 72, Opponent 70.2 (Total points scored = 142.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 37 (52.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (6-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (24-9).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (80-49).
-- Play Against - Home favorites of 2 to 5.5 points versus the first half line (FLA INTERNATIONAL) - average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG), after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season.
(43-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.2%, +29.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 32.1, Opponent 32.3 (Average first half point differential = -0.2)
The situation's record this season is: (9-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (24-5).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (88-49).
-- Play Under - All teams where the first half total is 55.5 to 60.5 (INDIANA) - good foul drawing team - attempting >=25 free throws/game, off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team.
(60-20 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.0%, +38.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 58.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 26.9, Opponent 28.2 (Total first half points scored = 55.1)
The situation's record this season is: (13-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (33-10).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (105-54).
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Sunday's Match-ups
#815 OHIO ST @ #816 INDIANA
(TV: 4:00 PM EST, CBS - Line: Ohio State -2.5, Total: N/A) - Ohio State has a tenuous grasp on one of the four byes in the upcoming Big Ten tournament and can thank Indiana for the slight margin of error it has. The 20th-ranked Buckeyes, who play their final road game of the season on Sunday against the Hoosiers, held a half-game lead for fourth place over Iowa entering Thursday’s road tilt against Penn State in search of their seventh win in eight games. Instead, the Nittany Lions became the first conference foe since 2008-09 to sweep them.
With a home game against No. 18 Michigan State looming next weekend, Ohio State would be well-served to continue its recent domination of Indiana, which it has defeated in eight of the last 10 meetings. The Buckeyes caught a break later Thursday when the Hoosiers downed the Hawkeyes 93-86 at home in a game postponed nine days after a piece of metal fell from the ceiling of Assembly Hall on Feb. 18. Indiana is only a game out of a three-way tie for last place in the conference, but its most recent victory gave it three wins over ranked teams in Big Ten play.
•ABOUT OHIO STATE (22-7 SU, 15-13-0 ATS, 9-7 Big Ten): The Buckeyes surrendered 15 second-chance points against the Nittany Lions on only seven offensive rebounds. “It was one of those games where two guys pound the shot off the backboard and it bounces out and they hit a 3 on us -- just little things like that was kind of the way the game went,” coach Thad Matta said following the game. Aaron Craft was perfect from the field (3-of-3) and foul line (1-of-1), but committed five turnovers despite being limited to a season-low 19 minutes due to foul trouble.
•ABOUT INDIANA (16-12 SU, 13-13-1 ATS, 6-9 Big Ten): The Hoosiers have shot over 50 percent in all of their victories over ranked Big Ten foes, accounting for three of the four times they have managed to hit that mark during conference action. The Hawkeyes held Indiana’s top two scorers (Yogi Ferrell and Noah Vonleh) to a combined 12 points – nearly 18 below their combined season averages – but Will Sheehey exploded for a career-high 30. "He's playing like the Will Sheehey that everyone has come to know, love and respect over the past couple of years," Indiana coach Tom Crean said following the game.
•PREGAME NOTES: Matta’s .803 winning percentage in March is the third-best mark in Division I since he became the Ohio State coach prior to the start of the 2004-05 season.... Indiana is 13-3 at home this season and 48-6 in its last 54 games at Assembly Hall.... With 321 career steals, Craft needs four more to pass Bruce Douglas for first place in Big Ten history.... The Hoosiers are 37-72 against the spread versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game after 15+ games since 1997.... The Buckeyes are 14-5 versus the spread after four straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, OHIO ST covered the spread 521 times, while INDIANA covered the spread 479 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, OHIO ST won the game straight up 579 times, while INDIANA won 391 times. In 1000 simulated games, INDIANA covered the first half line 510 times, while OHIO ST covered the first half line 490 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OHIO ST is 20-11 against the spread versus INDIANA since 1997.
--OHIO ST is 17-14 straight up against INDIANA since 1997.
--13 of 23 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--OHIO ST is 17-13 versus the first half line when playing against INDIANA since 1997.
--15 of 23 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Buckeyes are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
--Buckeyes are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Indiana.
--Over is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings.
--Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Indiana.
--Favorite is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--OSU is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. Big Ten.
--OSU is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
--Over is 17-7-1 in OSU last 25 Sun. games.
--IND is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Sunday games.
--Under is 9-2 in IND last 11 overall.
--Under is 9-2 in IND last 11 vs. Big Ten.
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#829 MARQUETTE @ #830 VILLANOVA
(TV: 2:00 PM EST, CBS - Line: Villanova -10.5, Total: N/A) - Villanova has won nine of its last 10 games - a run that began with an overtime victory over Marquette - and the Wildcats look to continue their hot stretch Sunday against the visiting Golden Eagles. Villanova also has a chance to set the program record for regular-season victories, a mark that would be meaningful to coach Jay Wright. “That’s pretty cool,” Wright said after Wednesday's record-tying win over Butler. “It’s very good. This is a very good group.”
The Wildcats have turned up the defensive intensity over the last two games, allowing a total of 102 points after giving up 180 in their previous two contests - a loss to Creighton and a double-overtime win against Providence. The Golden Eagles, meanwhile, have won five of their last six games with the last two victories coming by two points apiece. Davante Gardner, who scored 26 points in Thursday's win over Georgetown, will be a focus of the Villanova defense, particularly after posting 29 points and 13 rebounds in the first meeting.
•ABOUT MARQUETTE (17-11 SU, 10-15-1 ATS, 9-6 Big East): The Golden Eagles are no lock to make the NCAA Tournament, but a win over the Wildcats would probably go a long way toward aiding their cause. Marquette's best road win came against Georgetown, another bubble team, and the Golden Eagles don't have many quality home wins to stand on. Among the Eagles' problems this season has been poor 3-point shooting (31.2 percent) and the lack of an interior presence other than Gardner (15.1 points, 5.8 rebounds - both team highs).
•ABOUT VILLANOVA (25-3 SU, 18-8-0 ATS, 13-2 Big East): The Wildcats rank in the top 30 nationally in points (79.4) and assists (15.8) thanks in large part to their three-headed backcourt of James Bell, Darrun Hilliard II and Ryan Arcidiacono. Bell leads the team with 15.7 points but has been in a major slump of late, averaging 12.3 points on 33 percent shooting over his last three games. Bruising forward JayVaughn Pinkston also has been quiet recently, scoring in single figures in back-to-back games for the first time this season.
•PREGAME NOTES: Villanova's three losses have come by an average of 21.7 points.... Marquette senior G Jake Thomas is eyeing an encore performance after hitting six 3-pointers en route to a career-high 22 points against Georgetown.... This is the finale of a three-game homestand for the Wildcats, who are 13-1 at home this season.... Marquette is 32-15 versus the spread in road games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots/game on the season since 1997.... Villanova is 7-1 against the spread versus good foul drawing teams - attempting more than 25 free throws/game this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, VILLANOVA covered the spread 557 times, while MARQUETTE covered the spread 443 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, VILLANOVA won the game straight up 821 times, while MARQUETTE won 149 times. In 1000 simulated games, MARQUETTE covered the first half line 475 times, while VILLANOVA covered the first half line 474 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MARQUETTE is 10-5 against the spread versus VILLANOVA since 1997.
--VILLANOVA is 8-7 straight up against MARQUETTE since 1997.
--11 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--VILLANOVA is 10-5 versus the first half line when playing against MARQUETTE since 1997.
--8 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Over is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings.
--Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Villanova.
--Golden Eagles are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Villanova.
--Road team is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MARQ is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games.
--MARQ is 4-14-1 ATS in their last 19 vs. Big East.
--MARQ is 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
--VILL is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games.
--Over is 13-5 in VILL last 18 overall.
--Over is 14-6 in VILL last 20 vs. Big East.
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#833 WISCONSIN @ #834 PENN ST
(TV: Noon EST, Big Ten Network - Line: Wisconsin -6, Total: N/A) - Penn State is determined to make some noise in the Big Ten, and the Nittany Lions already own a pair of wins over Ohio State. The Nittany Lions will look to knock off another ranked opponent when they host No. 14 Wisconsin on Sunday. The Badgers have won six straight to jump into third place in the Big Ten and are trying to track down second-place Michigan State.
Penn State got 23 points from D.J. Newbill and held off a late Buckeyes' rally for a 65-63 home upset Thursday. The Nittany Lions had dropped four of five before that win and can work their way up to the seventh or eighth seed in the Big Ten tournament with a strong finish over the final three games. Wisconsin is trying to lock up a first-round bye in the tournament as one of the top four seeds.
•ABOUT WISCONSIN (23-5 SU, 16-12-0 ATS, 10-5 Big Ten): The Badgers have won their last four on the road and are enjoying a relative offensive explosion with an average of 75.3 points over the last four games. Wisconsin looked like it was back to its low-scoring ways with a 19-point first half against Indiana on Tuesday, but the Badgers put up 50 after the break to run away with a 69-58 win. “Just having confidence in each other and going into the locker room and letting each other know that we’re doing all the right things, and they’re going to go down,” senior guard Ben Brust told reporters of the second-half change. “We all have confidence in each other. It’s a tight group, and we did it.”
•ABOUT PENN STATE (14-14 SU, 12-12-1 ATS, 5-10 Big Ten): The Nittany Lions sent Tim Frazier out with a memorable senior night against the Buckeyes, pushing the team to 2-4 against ranked opponents. Frazier, a fifth-year senior who missed most of the 2012-13 campaign with a knee injury, scored 16 points in the win and has reached double figures in seven straight. “It was an emotional game and I am coming down to my last games playing here,” Frazier told reporters. “I had a great career and just to get a win made this game very special to me.”
•PREGAME NOTES: The Badgers commit 8.1 turnovers per game, fewest in the nation.... Frazier needs two rebounds to become the second player in Big Ten history with at least 1,400 points (1,482), 600 assists (619) and 500 rebounds (498), joining Jeff Horner (Iowa 2003-06).... Brust is 4-of-22 from 3-point range in the last three games.... Wisconsin is 7-1 versus the spread in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game this season.... The Nittany Lions are 12-3 against the spread versus teams who are called for 3+ less fouls/game than their opponents over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, PENN ST covered the spread 495 times, while WISCONSIN covered the spread 472 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, WISCONSIN won the game straight up 650 times, while PENN ST won 317 times. In 1000 simulated games, PENN ST covered the first half line 496 times, while WISCONSIN covered the first half line 453 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--WISCONSIN is 15-14 against the spread versus PENN ST since 1997.
--WISCONSIN is 24-6 straight up against PENN ST since 1997.
--13 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--WISCONSIN is 16-13 versus the first half line when playing against PENN ST since 1997.
--12 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Badgers are 0-8 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
--Under is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Penn St.
--Road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
--Underdog is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--WIS is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
--WIS is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Sunday games.
--Over is 10-4 in WIS last 14 Sun. games.
--PSU is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.
--PSU is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 vs. Big Ten.
--PSU is 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
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#847 STANFORD @ #848 ARIZONA
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Arizona -11, Total: N/A) - Arizona can clinch the Pac-12 regular-season title outright with a victory Sunday against visiting Stanford, but it won’t come easy as the No. 3 Wildcats learned when they squeezed out a three-point win against the Cardinal on Jan 29. Since improving to a school-record 21-0 with that win, Arizona has shown some blemishes, losing the following game to California and another two weeks later at Arizona State. But beating Arizona at home is another story, as the Wildcats have won 20 straight on their home floor, most recently a 28-point payback win against California.
Aaron Gordon struggled in the last meeting against Stanford, which was the start of a three-game shooting slump for the freshman forward, but he looks to be getting a second wind after converting 14-of-20 shots over the last two games while combining for just one turnover. Nick Johnson has been carrying the load as the leading scorer for the Wildcats (16.2) and can accomplish something he has yet to do in his three-year career, score at least 20 points in three consecutive games. He’ll likely be up against one of the top scorers in the Pac-12 in Chasson Randle (18.7), who was held to 12 points on 3-for-15 shooting in the first meeting against Arizona.
•ABOUT STANFORD (18-9 SU, 16-8-1 ATS, 9-6 Pac-12): Dwight Powell should also be pumped for what could be his final game against the Wildcats, a team he has yet to beat in five tries. He had one of his 10 double-doubles against Arizona last season and finished with 13 points and six rebounds when these teams met in January. He has seven double-doubles thus far this season but just one in the last nine games, leaving him overdue for a big game.
•ABOUT ARIZONA (26-2 SU, 17-10-0 ATS, 13-2 Pac-12): Kaleb Tarczewski continues to be a difference maker for the Wildcats, more so than ever after Brandon Ashley went down with a season-ending foot injury seven games ago. The 7-foot center scored a season-high 18 points in the game in which Ashley was hurt — a two-point loss to California to end the 21-game winning streak — and has scored no less than eight in the six games since. The Cardinal are big up front with the 6-10 Powell, 6-11 Stefan Nastic and 6-7 rebounding specialist Josh Huestis, so Tarczewski’s size will play a factor.
•PREGAME NOTES: Arizona has won eight straight in the series.... Stanford has used the same starting lineup of Powell, Randle, Nastic, Huestis and Anthony Brown for every game.... Arizona is the only team in the nation that ranks in the top 20 in both offensive (38.5) and defensive (73.9) rebounding percentage.... Stanford is 12-5 against the spread versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game this season.... The Wildcats are 6-0 versus the spread in home games versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season after 15+ games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, STANFORD covered the spread 490 times, while ARIZONA covered the spread 477 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, ARIZONA won the game straight up 767 times, while STANFORD won 209 times. In 1000 simulated games, STANFORD covered the first half line 567 times, while ARIZONA covered the first half line 433 times. *EDGE against first half line =STANFORD.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--ARIZONA is 18-15 against the spread versus STANFORD since 1997.
--ARIZONA is 22-11 straight up against STANFORD since 1997.
--20 of 31 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--STANFORD is 17-15 versus the first half line when playing against ARIZONA since 1997.
--20 of 31 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Arizona.
--Cardinal are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Arizona.
--Road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Underdog is 22-7 ATS in the last 29 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--STAN are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
--STAN are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. Pacific-12.
--Over is 7-2 in STAN last 9 Sun. games.
--ARIZ is 17-7 ATS in their last 24 home games.
--Under is 22-10-1 in ARIZ last 33 Sun. games.
--Under is 35-16-1 in ARIZ last 52 home games.
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#861 PURDUE @ #862 IOWA
(TV: 2:05 PM EST, Big Ten.Network - Line: Iowa -14.5, Total: N/A) - With its national ranking soon to be gone, No.19 Iowa will be playing for something far more important when it faces visiting Purdue on Saturday in Big Ten action. The Hawkeyes saw their only losing streak of the season reach three games Thursday in a loss at Indiana in a game rescheduled from Feb. 18 and likely sit on the bubble for an at-large big into the NCAA Tournament. "You turn it over 18 times and we don't throw the ball inside in the second half. We tried to do it all at once," head coach Fran McCaffery told reporters. "We started quick-shooting the ball and driving into packs of people. No panic, we'll stay together, keep working and be positive."
If not for a triple overtime loss to Minnesota and a double overtime defeat at the hands of Northwestern, Wednesday's buzzer-beating overtime loss to Michigan would undoubtedly be the hardest of the season for the Boilermakers. After leading by as many as 19 points and by 14 at halftime, Matt Painter's team was done in by a missed free throw and by Glenn Robinson III's layup as time expired. "We just did a poor job down the stretch on our weakside defense," Painter told the media after his team gave up three dunks and two layups in overtime. "We've just got to continue to work and get better. We've just got to make better decisions."
•ABOUT PURDUE (15-13 SU, 9-15-0 ATS, 5-10 Big Ten): Part of the Boilermakers' problems in overtime stemmed from the loss of 7-foot, 250-pound center A.J. Hammons, who fouled out with 1:53 remaining in regulation. That left 6-5 Basil Smotherman and 6-6 Erick Peck, two reserves who average less than 19 minutes per game, to guard the basket. "I always try to put our size at the rim and without A.J., obviously we didn't have anybody to be there," Painter told reporters. "You have to get the basketball or you have to be there on the catch and make him shoot over you and once he got past, we didn't have any size. He (Robinson) wasn't going against a shot blocker."
•ABOUT IOWA (19-9 SU, 15-11-0 ATS, 8-7 Big Ten): The Hawkeyes were one of five ranked teams in action Thursday to lose, with only No.4 Louisville bucking the trend that also saw No.20 Ohio State lose to Penn State in the Big 10. Melsahn Basabe returned from a two-game absence (stomach flu) to score 14 points, but the Hawkeyes shot poorly from beyond the arc (4-of-19) and at the foul line (14-of-22). "I believe in these guys," insisted McCaffery, whose team hasn't had a losing streak longer than three games since 2010-11. "We have character in that locker room and we'll come back in a big way, no question in my mind."
•PREGAME NOTES: The Boilermakers have won 11 of the past 13 meetings and hold an 86-72 advantage overall.... The 18 turnovers by Iowa against Indiana were the most since coughing up 27 against Arkansas-Pine Bluff 15 years ago.... Robinson's father is former Purdue star Glenn Robinson II, who is one of 15 players in college basketball history to score 1,000 points in a season.... The Boilermakers are 15-34 against the spread in road games versus good free throw shooting teams - making more than 72% of their attempts after 15+ games since 1997.... Iowa is 19-9 versus the spread when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, IOWA covered the spread 542 times, while PURDUE covered the spread 458 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, IOWA won the game straight up 883 times, while PURDUE won 106 times. In 1000 simulated games, PURDUE covered the first half line 557 times, while IOWA covered the first half line 443 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--IOWA is 17-11 against the spread versus PURDUE since 1997.
--PURDUE is 17-12 straight up against IOWA since 1997.
--14 of 22 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--IOWA is 17-11 versus the first half line when playing against PURDUE since 1997.
--12 of 22 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Boilermakers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Boilermakers are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Iowa.
--Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Iowa.
--Home team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--PUR is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Sun. games.
--Under is 7-3 in PUR last 10 road games.
--Under is 10-4 in PUR last 14 Sun. games.
--IOWA is 38-17 ATS in their last 55 home games.
--IOWA is 38-18 ATS in their last 56 games overall.
--Over is 7-0 in IOWA last 7 vs. Big Ten.
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