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At the Gate - Sunday
By Mike Dempsey

I’m a bit winded after Saturday’s 13-race card at Gulfstream Park and I did a double take when I realized today’s card also includes 13 races.

Things went pretty well for us yesterday with four winners on top and five recommended exactas at Gulfstream Park: $76.20, $29.40, $37.00, $34.20 and $53.20.

We saw two awesome performances by three-year-olds at Santa Anita. Mor Spirit won the $150,000 Robert B. Lewis (G3) and earned 10 points toward entry into the Kentucky Derby (G1). The Bob Baffert trainee now has 24 points, good for second in the standings behind Nyquist.

As of Saturday evening the colt was listed at odds of 8-1 in future Derby betting, good for second choice. Mohaymen is the early favorite at odds of 4-1.

Perhaps the best three-year-old in training is a filly. Songbird remained undefeated with her win in the $300,000 Las Virgenes (G2), her fifth career win.

She won by 6 ½ lengths while under a hammerlock form her jockey Mike Smith. She probably would be the favorite for the Derby but her connections insist she is being pointed toward the Kentucky Oaks (G1).

She is currently the early betting favorite for the Oaks at odds of 1-2. That is not a misprint, it is really 1-2. The second choice in the betting is Rachels Valentina at 8-1.

The marathon 13-race card at Gulfstream Park concludes at 5:53 ET, which gives us about a half hour to settle in for the Super Bowl.


Here is today’s opener from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:

GP Race 1 Clm $6,250 (12:00 ET)
#2 Artefacto 8-5
#6 Right On Ready 9-5
#3 Keyed Cache 15-1
#4 Buongiorno Johnny 6-1

Analysis: Artefacto took the field gate to wire to beat $12,500 claimers last out and the gelding has now landed in the exacta in 7 of 12 starts over the main track here. There is plenty of speed signed up but he has shown an ability to track. He looks sharp enough to win right back here for the Navarro barn.

Right on Ready could complete a chalky exacta to start the day. The gelding has won five in a row, his last pair against open $6,250 foes. He was claimed out of his last outing by the Nunn barn that is 4 for 27 first off the claim dating back five years. Three of his last four wins have come on off tracks. A logical threat here as he seldom runs a bad one.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 8-5 or better.
EX: 2,6 / 2,3,4,6
TRI: 2,6 / 2,3,4,6 / 2,3,4,5,6

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 OClm $75,000N1X (4:20 ET)
#2 Bust Another 10-1
#6 Spooked Out 1-1
#1 Fumin Newman 6-1
#3 Gehrig 5-1

Analysis: Bust Another tracked the early pace and finished strongly to beat $32,000 claimers last out here by six lengths. The runner up The Great Whiteway came back to beat $25,000 claimers in his next outing on Feb. 4. Our top pick was claimed out of his win by the Pino barn that is 24% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim. He looks capable of moving forward off his last start and the 10-1 morning line looks generous.


Spooked Out is coming off a fourth in the state bred Damon Runyon where he headed for home with the lead and was beaten just a half-length. He cuts back to a sprint here and he broke his maiden at six furlongs here on the main track by 9 1/2 lengths in his second career start. He looks legit but at a very short price.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 2,6 / 1,2,5,6
TRI: 2,6 / 1,2,5,6 / 1,2,5,6,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:

GP Race 10 Md $12,500 (4:23 ET)
#6 Olympic Smoke 3-1
#4 Baby Antonella 6-1
#10 Starship Maiden 4-1
#14 Unknown 5-1

Analysis: Olympic Smoke adds lasix and cuts back to six panels here after tracking the early pace and tiring to finish a well beaten sixth last out. Two back this gal dueled for the early lead before weakening to finish fourth. The filly is out of a stakes placed Gilded Time mare that has dropped six winners. There is not much speed in here and even with the cut back this filly should be in the mix early.

Baby Antonella drops a notch in class to the bottom here after checking in fifth last out for a $16,000 tag. She adds blinkers which may put her closer to the front here. She has been on wet tracks in two of her three starts and has been the beaten favorite in her last pair. If she runs back to her third in her debut at the $35,000 level that would be good enough to beat this group.

Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 4,6,10,14
TRI: 4,6 / 4,6,10,14 / 4,6,8,10,14

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Gulfstream Park
R1: #3 Keyed Cache 15-1
R3: #8 Pizote Solo 8-1
R4: #1 Grand Niece 12-1
R5: #1 Boyfriend’s Back 15-1
R7: #10 My Special One 8-1
R8: #8 Desert Tune 8-1
R13: #13 Winged Fury 8-1

Good luck today!
 
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SPOT PLAYS

For Sunday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (2nd) Big Al Parker, 5-1
(9th) Unstoppable U, 7-2

Fair Grounds (3rd) Philli Four, 4-1
(8th) Speak Up Sailor, 8-1

Golden Gate Fields (2nd) Rojac, 4-1
(6th) Hollywood Angel, 9-2


Gulfstream Park (2nd) B T's Baby, 6-1
(4th) Fairytale Finish, 3-1


Laurel Park (3rd) Kelleyesque, 7-2
(5th) English Manor, 5-1


Oaklawn Park (1st) Innocent Storm, 4-1
3rd) American Road, 7-2


Santa Anita (4th) Nine Point Nine, 3-1
(5th) Hobbits Hero, 4-1


Tampa Bay Downs (6th) Odessa Wind, 7-2
(9th) Cammack, 4-1


Turfway Park (5th) Grand Kuma, 9-2
(7th) Dancer's Rock, 8-1
 
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Sunday's six-pack

-- I'm wondering if it would be fun to hit Las Vegas for the Super Bowl some year; I mean, I know it would be fun, but more fun than usual?

-- Home underdogs are 14-5 vs spread. in Sun Belt games, 8-16 in Atlantic 14.

-- Home favorites are 29-16 in Big 14 games, 27-14 in SEC games, 15-24 in WCC.

-- Golden State, San Antonio are a combined 51-0 at home this season.

-- Clippers G Austin Rivers is out 4-6 weeks with a broken hand.

-- Pete Rose should've played football; Edward DeBartolo was elected to the Hall of Fame last night, despite pleading guilty to a felony in 1998. He didn't play, he didn't coach, but he is in the Hall of Fame and he is a criminal. Its good to have friends.
 
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Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Sunday

A break from the usual format today as all most of us will care about here is Super Bowl 50 between the Panthers and Broncos. So I’ll fire off my quick take on the big game and get set for the action to unfold.

I have two plays on the game. I played the NFC -1 a few weeks ago, and added a play on the Broncos +6. So for me, this is sit back and hope it’s close, as I sure like the idea of middling the game.

That’s all I have as far as action is concerned. I’m not a props player, although there is no question there are probably some terrific value options available. But this is a one-man operation, and the bulk of my handicapping hours are spent on college basketball at this time of year. So to just randomly fire away without having done what for me is necessary homework, that’s just not going to happen. I’m happy enough to do the ol’ fiddle in the middle and if Carolina wins close, the drinks are on me. (Actually, they’re not on me as I’m attending a party at Fleming’s Town Square and there will be plenty of tasty beverages available for all attendees.)

Okay, here’s my take on the game. I feel as though this one gets determined very early. If the Panthers come storming out of the gate as they’ve done in two very convincing wins over the Seahawks and Cardinals, Denver is in a world of trouble. Anything is possible, of course, but the Broncos are not really built to come from behind, and if at any point they go down two scores, it could be lights out quickly for the AFC champs.

On the other hand, if Denver keeps the Panthers off the scoreboard early, I think they’re in this all the way. Obviously, the Broncos would be best served to grab an early lead. But my sense is that even if they’re down a little heading to halftime, they will have an excellent chance to win the game.

The math suggests that the line is still a bit on the high side, although with the late Denver money that’s been showing this week, the optimum Broncos line has disappeared. I suspect it might tick up a bit as we get close to post time, as Carolina is still the more popular side with the bettors.

My final score is Carolina 23, Denver 20. So officially, for the purposes of record keeping on the daily Bonus Plays, the Broncos plus the points are the play.

My best advice? Treat this game as you’d treat any other NFL game. Just because it’s the biggest game doesn’t mean it warrants the biggest bet.
 
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Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp NBA Pick, Sunday, Feb 7, 2016 1:05 PM EST

(853) DENVER NUGGETS VS (854) NEW YORK KNICKS

Take: (854) NEW YORK KNICKS

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Sunday, February 7, 2016 is in the NBA scheduled contest between the Denver Nuggets and the Knicks from New York. Can't imagine Denver being into this one, a bad defensive team a long way from home. It's the start of a four-game trip and their 5th road game over the last 7 contests. The Denver defense is No. 22 in field goal shooting, plus No. 23 in points allowed. The Knicks have had a tough schedule of late and are home, hungry for a win. Kristaps Porzingis is a force, off a game where he finished with 17 points, 10 rebounds and 6 blocks. The defense is No. 11 in field goal shooting and No. 13 in points allowed. Play the NY Knicks.
 
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Jamie Michaels

Panthers vs Broncos

1* Free Pick on Panthers v Broncos OVER 44

Well, Super Bowl 50 is finally upon us and in spite of the 2 high-profile QBs in this game, a LOT has been said about the elite defensive matchup, and rightly so. Both teams held their opponents to under 20 points per game. Both rank in the top 8 in 1st downs allowed. Both fall in the top 10 in sacks percentage. Both teams rank in the top 6 in total yards allowed. Denver ranks 1st in rushing yards allowed while the Panthers sit at #4. Denver is 3rd in passing yards allowed, while Carolina ranks 1st in takeaways. On paper, this game shouldn’t get above 40. BUT we do have 2 of the league’s most dynamic QBs in Cam Newton and Peyton Manning. Cam has done an incredible job this year of staying in the pocket and finding his open receivers. He has hit TE Greg Olson 89 times for 1294 yards while the Broncos’ Demarius Thomas has been targeted 192 times for 1356 yards ranking 5th overall with 111 receptions. I don’t know that we see a lot of Thomas in this game, but let’s not forget about TE Owen Daniels who has become a recent favorite target for Manning. Both QBs claim to be in great form physically and mentally and are emotional prepared for this game. But even should nerves get the better of either of these 2 at some point, these elite defensive units should be good for several takeaways and perhaps even a Manning interception (he had 17 on the year) for a pick-6, right in line with the Panthers 6 for the season. If both teams play a clean game, turnover-free game, we will see a score along the lines of 20-17, but I expect the D’s to step it up a notch for this game and at the very least get some better field position for their offense, particularly the Panthers offense who is an incredible 70% in red zone scoring percentage! And we can never rule out a sack/fumble/recovery/TD on Sunday either. This will be an exciting game to watch and I think we see the defensive efforts for both teams create more scoring opportunities for their respective offenses. Take OVER 44!
 
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Xander Locke

Panthers vs Broncos

XANDER LOCKE'S FREE SUPER BOWL 50 TOTAL SUPER LOCK

There are a number of reasons why this will be a low scoring game. First of all Carolina is overrated. Yes they're 15-1 in the regular season. Let's take a look at who they actually beat to get that "15-1 record". Nine of those wins came against seven teams that had losing records; Tennessee (3-10) once, Dallas (4-12) once, Jacksonville (5-11) once, Tampa Bay (6-10) twice, NY Giants (6-10) once, New Orleans (7-9) twice, and Philadelphia (7-9) once. Two of those wins came vs two teams that were at .500 for the season; Atlanta (8-8), and Indianapolis (8-8). Only four of those wins were against teams with a winning record; Houston (9-7) who was slightly better than MEDIOCRE, Washington (9-7) who was less than MEDIOCRE most of the year, Green Bay (10-6) who definitely was just not as good this year, and Seattle (10-6) the only "GOOD" team that Carolina beat in the regular season. Their only loss came against the MEDIOCRE Falcons. Arizona is the best team the Panthers have faced this year. And even though Carolina scored often vs the Cardinals, they were aided by Arizona's SEVEN turnovers.

Denver's defense will not allow the Panthers to score often. The Broncos are ranked 4th in the NFL in points allowed with 18.5 per game. And Peyton Manning definitely will not be careless with the football.

Carolina's defense also will not allow the Broncos to score often in this game. The Panthers defense is ranked 6th in the NFL in points allowed at 19.3 per game. Plus, Denver's offense has struggled to put up points, averaging just over 20 points in their last three games. Not to mention that Peyton Manning is known to choke in the postseason. The Broncos receivers have also had trouble catching the ball this postseason.

Both of these teams will be extremely focused, prepared and motivated defensively. No matter who wins this game, this total won't go over 43 points.

TAKE THE UNDER
 
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Ari Atari

Panthers vs Broncos

Bonus Play Under

We're looking at two very tough defensive teams allowing less than 20 a game all season. Denver allows 18.3 while Carolina comes in a 19.3. The Superbowl total is set at 45 and there is enough room for this one to be dominated by defense and stay under the total. I wouldn't recommend a play on the total for over 1 unit and I STRONGLY recommend you save your money for a better wager on the Superbowl.
 
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Don Anthony

Panthers vs Broncos

10* SUPER BOWL Bonus Play

Peyton Manning for Super Bowl 50 MVP

This prop is basically a small bet on the Denver Broncos. Denver to win outright is currently +200. Taking Manning to win MVP is +400. We're basically getting double the payout and if Denver wins the Super Bowl, I believe the NFL will do whatever it can to give Manning the MVP trophy for his last rodeo because it seems almost certain he will retire, especially after his post-game talk with Bill Belichick, after the AFC Championship victory.

Also, another one of my favorite prop(s) is taking almost every Demaryius Thomas prop UNDER. So far I see his total yardage at 67.5 and his total receptions at 5.5. Love the total receptions under. I expect Norman to completely take him out of the game. Thomas is also prone to the dropped ball early on and Peyton and Demaryius do not seem to have solid chemistry right now. Expect Manning to look for Sanders way more often (hint, hint.)
 
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Bill Biles

Panthers vs Broncos

Free Pick Under 44.5

This game will be a defensive battle throughout. Both teams have amazing defenses and it will be tough to score points in this one. Field position and ball security will be the main focus in this game. This will be a great superbowl to watch so enjoy the game.

Pick= Under 44.5
 
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Brad Diamond

Utah vs Oregon

Bonus Play Utah

The Utes travel to Oregon in 18-point same season revenge after being smashed by the Ducks 77-59 back in January. And, although Oregon is on a five game win streak, believe they will have rabid unit taking their skilled shooting to the wire. The UNDERDOG has covered three straight in the series. Good Luck!
 
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Will Rogers

Iona vs Niagara

Bonus Play Niagara Purple Eagles

The Iona Gaels are coming off a blowout win at Canisius on Friday, and they will be a double digit road favorite at Niagara on Sunday. I took the Gaels as a four point favorite on Friday, but I think they are overvalued in this spot.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Previous History - The Gaels have won six straight against the Purple Eagles, but Niagara has covered the spread in three of the last four meetings. Iona is just 4-10 ATS in it's last 14 overall.

2. Home Cookin' - The Purple Eagles don't score a lot of points, but they play pretty well defensively, especially at home. They have allowed opponents to average just 69 points on 40 percent shooting at home this season. They have lost each of their last three home games, failing to cover in all three. All three of those games were decided by less than 10 points.

3. X-Factor - The Gaels are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record, and they've failed to cover in seven of their last 10 versus conference rivals.

Selection: This is a play on the Niagara Purple Eagles (Free)
 
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Mike Lundin

Clippers vs Heat

5* NBA Free Pick Under

I think buckets will come at a premium for both teams when the Miami Heat host the Los Angeles Clippers on Super Bowl Sunday afternoon. The under is 16-9 in the Heat's 25 home games on the season and 5-0 in the Clippers last five on the road. The Heat have played solid defense in recent games coming off a pair of wins against Dallas (93-90) and Charlotte (98-95) as Hassan Whiteside has come off the bench in each of the two games, and he should be ready to get back into the starting lineup for this one. Afternoon games in the NBA have a tendency of being low-scoring affairs, and that should definitely be the case here just hours before the Super Bowl. We can also note that the under is 6-2 in the Clippers' last eight overall and 8-3 in the Heat's last 11.
 
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Marc Lawrence

Clippers vs Heat

Play - Miami Heat

Edges - Heat: 6-1 SUATS last seven games; and 9-1 SU and 6-3-1 ATS home versus Western Conference foes this season. Clippers: 11-22-2 ATS as dogs after facing the Magic. With the Heat back to full health and playing their best ball of the season, we recommend a 1* play on Miami. Thank you and good luck as always.
 

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Brandon Lang


My 80 Dime Super Sunday move is the Broncos over the Panthers. The current line is anywhere from +5 to +5 1/2 in Vegas and offshore.


PROP BETS:
Under 23 First Half
Coin Toss - Tails
National Anthem - Over
Over 2 1/2 field goals (-110)
First score Field Goal
Ted Ginn Jr will have rush attempt (+280)
Over 9 1/2 Third down conversions combined both teams
First Denver touchdown Owen Daniels (8-1)
Extra point missed (+300)

TYPICAL LANG..Some of those lines are pure bullshit

it's over 3.5 field goals

Ginn rush attempt is +170

over 10.5 3rd down

anthem over what amt of time?
yuck
 

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did anyone purchase the northcoast prop and game package?

I only made 30 prop bets ..need some more
 

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nbaclub.info

USA: NBA
Miami Heat - Los Angeles Clippers
Over 195
Odd: 1,86
 

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