Eight great ways to handicap Daytona 500 betting
By GREG ENGLE
It’s that time once again. After a short offseason NASCAR is back in business this week in Daytona Beach. The biggest race of the year, NASCAR’s “Super Bowl”, will get the green flag Sunday and the 36-race grind lasting until November will begin.
NASCAR’s biggest race is also its most heavily bet. But, like the other restrictor-plate track on the circuit, Talladega Superspeedway, many of the methods used for week-to-week NASCAR betting are useless. Anyone in the 43-car field has a chance to win the Daytona 500 but there are some ways you can find some favorites that will increase your odds of success.
Narrow down the carmakers
Forget about Toyota, one of three automakers in the sport. Toyota has never won a Daytona 500 and has been victorious in only one points-paying race here, coming in July 2008. It’s been all Chevy and Ford at Daytona in the past 10 years with Ford winning four 500s (Dodge won in 2008 but no longer competes in NASCAR) and Chevy winning five including the last two.
Starting positions
Where a driver starts can help determine where they finish. Nine Daytona 500 winners have started from the pole followed by the No. 2 and No. 4 spot on the grid, both with seven winners apiece. From there, both No. 7 and No. 9 starting spots have five winners each.
Being a restrictor-plate track, though, starting up front isn’t always a winning formula. Five winners have started deeper then 31st. Jeff Gordon will start on the pole Sunday, his teammate Jimmie Johnson starts beside him in second. Keep in mind that the last time a driver won from the pole was in 1999, however, that driver was none other than Gordon.
Loop this
About the only thing NASCAR’s Loop Data Statistics are good for is betting, and for that we thank them. Loop Data is used to show which driver is historically the best at every track via a driver rating. Below are the Top 10 drivers at Daytona in terms of their driver rating.
Seven of these drivers have won at Daytona, four have won the Daytona 500 and have done so twice (Kenseth, Gordon, Johnson, Earnhardt), three have won both races at Daytona (Gordon, Johnson, Earnhardt).
Car No.
Driver
Total
Races
Avg Start
Avg Finish
Avg Pos
% Of Laps
In Top 15
Driver
Rating
18
Kyle Busch
20
15.4
19.1
12.804
70.1
96.2
20
Matt Kenseth
30
18.0
17.2
14.404
63.3
91.6
41
Kurt Busch
28
21.0
17.5
15.847
60.9
90.5
88
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
30
11.1
13.4
14.617
64.2
90.3
14
Tony Stewart
32
12.0
17.8
17.440
54.0
87.9
24
Jeff Gordon
44
10.4
16.2
14.823
58.4
87.1
48
Jimmie Johnson
26
10.2
18.0
14.865
62.4
87.0
11
Denny Hamlin
18
17.0
19.6
15.834
53.5
86.4
15
Clint Bowyer
18
19.0
15.9
17.567
48.4
83.7
22
Joey Logano
12
22.5
19.8
17.452
49.1
82.5
Ageless?
The most prolific age to win the Daytona 500, at least historically, is 36. Seven winners have come from this age group, with the last being Matt Kenseth in 2009. The next best ages are 30, 33 and 39 which each produced five winners, the last being defending 500 champion Dale Earnhardt Jr., who was 39 last year.
Earnhardt doesn’t turn 40 until October which is good because only two winners have come from that age group, the last in 2002. The odds for a repeat Daytona 500 win for NASCAR’s favorite son aren’t all that good, however. There have been three consecutive Daytona 500 winners but the last came in 1994-1995. Pole sitter Jeff Gordon is 44 this year and only two winners have come from that age, the last in 1982.
To finish first, you first have to finish
Jimmie Johnson has failed to finish five of his last 10 races at Daytona. Dale Earnhardt Jr. has the highest average finish at 11 among active drivers in the last 10 Daytona 500s but failed to finish in two of those.
The dark horse here may be Ricky Stenhouse Jr., who has the second-highest average finish at 13 in three Daytona 500 starts but no DNFs. Gordon has an average Daytona 500 finish of 20.7 with three DNFs, and Johnson’s is 21.3 with three DNFs as well.
Winner, winner chicken dinner
Matt Kenseth and Jimmie Johnson have each won two of the last 10 runnings of the Daytona 500. Dale Earnhardt Jr., Kevin Harvick, Trevor Bayne, Ryan Newman, Jamie McMurray and Jeff Gordon have each won a single Daytona 500 in that span.
Follow me
While the winner is often the one who leads the most laps, in a restrictor plate race it’s anyone’s game on the final lap. Still leading laps will usually ensure that a driver will at least be towards the front of the pack when it matters most. Matt Kenseth has led 252 laps in the last 10 Daytona 500s, with Denny Hamlin at 142 and Jimmie Johnson at 127 laps led.
Capping current form
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (+750) - Earnhardt is the defending Daytona 500 winner and while going back-to-back in the Great American Race is rare, it has been done. His stats at Daytona can’t be denied: he leads in almost every category. After his time was disallowed in last Sunday’s qualifying session, Earnhardt was forced to start in the rear of the first Duel Thursday. It didn’t take him long to rocket to the front, take the lead and win. With that kind of performance and given that he leads nearly every stat at Daytona, Earnhardt is the favorite for Sunday.
Jimmie Johnson (+850) - Johnson won the second Duel Thursday and starts second Sunday. He has a good driver rating but in the past few races has had some issues with finishing. However, if he can keep it together Sunday, Johnson has shown all this week that he could go all the way, again.
Jeff Gordon (+1,000) - Gordon will start on pole for what he says is his last Daytona 500. He may just have the extra motivation to win the big one, one final time.
Ryan Blaney (+5,000) - Want a longshot? Young driver Ryan Blaney staged an impressive run in a Wood Brothers Ford Thursday night finishing in the Top 5. The Wood Brothers staged a surprising win here in 2011 and could do so again Sunday.
