StatSystems Sports NCAACB StatSheets, Sunday 2/16/14
STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 2/16/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_________________________________________
***** Sunday, 2/16/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
___________________________________________
Sunday's Notebook
•Wright State (-7) shot 65% inside arc in 76-64 home win versus Oakland Jan 2, teams' first Horizon League meeting; this is first game in 8 days for Raiders squad that lost four of last five games, losing last three on road by 1-4-7 points. Horizon League home teams are 6-21 versus spread in games where spread was 5 or less point. Oakland won rivalry game in OT Friday versus Detroit, snapping 3-game losing skid- their last three wins are all by one point.
•Michigan (+7.5) won 77-70 at Wisconsin Jan 18, making 7-13 from arc; just second series win in last 14 games for Wolverines. Michigan is 4-1 as home favorite, winning home games by 23-13-8-9-29 points- they're 2-2 in last four games overall, after winning 10 straight. Big Dozen home favorites of 4 or less points are 7-5 versus spread. Wisconsin won three in a row after losing five of its previous six games.
•SMU (-13) held Temple to 30.3% from floor in 75-52 home win 10 days ago; Mustangs won last four games, nine of last 10- they won three of last four road games, winning by 12-7-12 points. AAC single digit home underdogs are 5-9 versus spread. Owls lost four in row (all by 14+), 12 of last 13 games, with only win at home versus Rutgers; they've lost conference home games by 7-10-4-16-24 points.
•Oregon State (+3) survived 20 turnovers (-9) in 80-72 home win over its rival Oregon Jan 19, game they led by 16 in first half, its first win in last four games versus Ducks. Oregon State is 1-5 on Pac-12 road, with three losses by 6 or less points (only win at Washington State). Oregon lost eight of its last ten games- they're 1-3 at home in Pac-12, with only win versus USC. Pac-12 home favorites of 9+ points are 14-9 versus spread.
•Creighton (+6.5) was ridiculous 21-35 from arc, scoring 1.45 ppp in its 96-68 win at Villanova Jan 20; Bluejays won 15 of last 17 games, are 6-0 at home in Big East, with four wins by 12+ points. Underdogs are 11-7 versus spread in Big East games where spread was 4 or less points. Villanova won last six games, last four by 16+ points; they're 6-0 on road in Big East- their only road loss all season was by 16 at Syracuse.
•Notre Dame (-6.5) beat Boston College 76-73 in OT Feb 1, despite being outscored 20-9 on foul line; Irish lost eight of its last 11 games, with last two wins in OT- they're 0-5 on ACC road, with all five losses by 8 or less points. ACC home teams are 11-26 versus spread in games with spread of 5 or less points. BC lost four in row, 14 of last 17 games; they're 1-4 at home in ACC, with only win against Virginia Tech.
•Northwestern (+10.5) won 55-54 at Minnesota Feb 1; Andre Hollins did not play that day. Wildcats are 6-4 in last ten series games, winning last five played here by 9-3-11-11-7 points. Big Dozen home underdogs of 5 or less points are 6-7 versus spread. Gophers lost last five road games, four of last five overall, with three road losses by 4 or less points or in OT. Hollins is back in lineup, scoring 22 points versus Wisconsin in last game.
•Georgetown (-7.5) was up 42-16 at half in 77-60 win over St John's Jan 4; Hoyas made 9-13 from arc, outscored Red Storm 22-10 on line in its 6th straight series win- they won last two visits here by 20-16 points. Big East home favorites of 4 or less points are 3-5 versus spread. St John's won seven of last eight games, winning last two by total of six points- they're leading Big East in both blocked shots and steals.
•Colorado (-11.5) waxed USC 83-62 at home Jan 18, big man Scott had 20 points in 24 minutes for Buffaloes, who are 3-0 versus USC in Pac-12 play, winning by 24-6-21 points. Pac-12 home underdogs of 5 or less points are 12-7 versus spread. Shorthanded Colorado (down three guys) lost its last four road games, all by 12+ points. Trojans lost last five games, four by 8+ points- their only conference win was a home upset of California.
•Drexel (-4) won 77-74 at Hofstra Jan 29, making 10-21 from arc in game it trailed by 5 with 9:01 left; Dragons won last six series games, winning last two played here, by 9-11 points. CAA home favorites of 9+ points are 2-5 versus spread. Hofstra lost six of last seven games, losing last four on conference road, by 18-18-8-6 points. Drexel is just 5-6 in league play, but won its last two home games, by 11-18 points.
•Monmouth (+6) lost 75-73 at Marist Jan 30; Red Foxes made 11-26 on arc in game they trailed by 11 in first 10:00. Marist is 10-6 in its last 16 games after an 0-9 start; they won four of last five, but is just 1-6 on the road in MAAC, with only win at Rider. MAAC home teams are 13-17 versus spread in games where spread was 4 or less points. Monmouth lost its last six games, but five of those were on road- they're 3-3 at home.
•Canisius has long road trip after winning rivalry game at Niagara Friday; they beat Siena 93-78 (-6.5) in first meeting Dec 8, making 15-26 on arc in game they led 57-36 at half. Griffins lost last seven visits to Albany, with five losses by 11+ points. Siena lost in last minute at Marist in its last game Friday, but they've won three of their last four home games. MAAC home underdogs of 5 or less points are 4-9 versus spread.
•Quinnipiac is 11-4 in its first year in MAAC, but they lost 74-67 (-4.5) to Peacocks Jan 12 in Jersey City, shooting 33% from floor in game they trailed 32-20 at half. Bobcats won last four games, are 7-1 at home in its conference games, with only loss to Canisius. MAAC home favorites of 8 or less points are 16-21-1 versus spread. St Peter's lost six of its last eight games, losing last four on road by 7-17-15-3 points.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- OREGON is 0-14 ATS (-15.4 Units) in home games after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1997.
The average score was OREGON 70.1, OPPONENT 70.7.
-- BOSTON COLLEGE is 14-2 OVER (+11.8 Units) in home games after 2 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers since 1997.
The average score was BOSTON COLLEGE 73.8, OPPONENT 68.3.
-- OREGON ST is 14-3 against the 1rst half line (+10.7 Units) after 2 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OREGON ST 34.1, OPPONENT 31.7.
-- MANHATTAN is 14-1 UNDER (+12.9 Units) the 1rst half total in home games off 2 straight wins against conference rivals since 1997.
The average score was MANHATTAN 34.7, OPPONENT 27.8.
-- GREG MCDERMOTT is 5-21 ATS (-18.1 Units) after having won 15 or more of their last 20 games as the coach of CREIGHTON.
The average score was MCDERMOTT 73.0, OPPONENT 68.6.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- SMU is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games this season.
The average score was SMU 72.4, OPPONENT 60.5.
-- COLORADO is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) in road games versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing <=12 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was COLORADO 54.9, OPPONENT 57.4.
-- WICHITA ST is 1-10 against the 1rst half line (-10.0 Units) in road games versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WICHITA ST 29.3, OPPONENT 30.2.
-- WISCONSIN is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) the 1rst half total in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WISCONSIN 25.5, OPPONENT 28.0.
-- MARTY SIMMONS is 34-9 ATS (+24.1 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games as the coach of EVANSVILLE.
The average score was SIMMONS 66.2, OPPONENT 66.3.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - Road underdogs of +145 to +350 versus the money line (OREGON ST) - excellent shooting team (>=47.5%) against a good shooting team (45-47.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's).
(131-28 since 1997.) (82.4%, +68.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -224.1
The average score in these games was: Team 72.8, Opponent 64.4 (Average point differential = +8.4)
The situation's record this season is: (22-6, +7 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (46-12, +17.6 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (74-16, +37.3 units).
-- Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TEMPLE) - a poor defensive team (74-78 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG), revenging a road blowout loss versus opponent of 20 points or more, off 3 straight losses against conference rivals.
(49-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.4%, +31.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (56-11 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 6.5
The average score in these games was: Team 73.3, Opponent 64.5 (Average point differential = +8.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 18 (27.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (5-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-12).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (150-103).
-- Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MONMOUTH) - an average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against a poor 3PT defense (>=36.5%), revenging a same season loss versus opponent, off 3 or more consecutive road losses.
(23-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.2%, +18.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (21-7 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.4
The average score in these games was: Team 70.7, Opponent 67.5 (Average point differential = +3.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 8 (28.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-2).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (49-34).
-- Play On - Underdogs of 20 or more points (RUTGERS) - a good offensive team (74-76 PPG) against an explosive offensive team (>=76 PPG), revenging home loss versus opponent, off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival.
(36-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.0%, +22.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (0-50 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 22.7
The average score in these games was: Team 61.6, Opponent 79.5 (Average point differential = -18)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 20 (40.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-7).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (119-90).
-- Play Against - Favorites of 6 or more points versus the first half line (MANHATTAN) - average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against a poor 3PT defense (>=36.5%) after 15+ games, hot shooting team - 3 straight games making >=47% of their shots.
(36-10 since 1997.) (78.3%, +25.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 8.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 29.2, Opponent 34.7 (Average first half point differential = -5.5)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
-- Play Against - Road underdogs of 11 or more points versus the first half line (RUTGERS) - average shooting team (42.5-45%) against an excellent defensive team (<=40%), excellent ball handling team - committing <=12 turnovers/game, after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers.
(62-24 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.1%, +35.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 13.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 43.6, Opponent 25.1 (Average first half point differential = +18.5)
The situation's record this season is: (11-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (38-10).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (141-98).
___________________________________________
Sunday's Match-ups
#855 WISCONSIN @ #856 MICHIGAN
(TV: 1:00 PM EST, CBS - Line: Michigan -4, Total: N/A) - After notching its first road win over Ohio State since 2003, No. 18 Michigan turns its attention toward visiting No. 21 Wisconsin Sunday. The Wolverines are knotted atop the Big Ten standings with No. 10 Michigan State, which comes next on their schedule Feb. 23 at home. Wisconsin is Michigan's third of four straight ranked opponents and coach John Beilein told the Detroit Free Press of the current stretch, "They're all high level games (that) all mean a lot."
The Badgers have rolled off three straight wins of their own and are now within a game of No. 15 Iowa in the conference standings. Guard Ben Brust, who entered Thursday's win over Minnesota with only 10 3-pointers in his last 40 attempts, appears to be regaining his long range touch after draining 4-of-4 from behind the arc against the Golden Gophers. "It's never a bad thing to make all the ones you take," Brust joked to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, noting a philosophy of, "Forget the last one; next one is going in."
•ABOUT WISCONSIN (20-5 SU, 13-12-0 ATS, 7-5 Big Ten): The Badgers' recent run had spirits high, with a renewed confidence spreading throughout the team following the win over Minnesota. "The energy is contagious," forward Frank Kaminsky told reporters, after an effort that included a collective 42 points from him and frontcourt mates Nigel Hayes and Sam Dekker. "Everyone was bringing it tonight." Coach Bo Ryan notes a simple shift in approach as the reason for his team's current upswing, telling reporters. "(They're) working hard, reading and reacting to one another."
•ABOUT MICHIGAN (18-6 SU, 12-9-1 ATS, 10-2 Big Ten): The win over the Buckeyes was not only an historic moment in the longstanding rivalry between the two schools but also an important road win for a Wolverines squad that is only 5-4 in away games. "We love getting road wins," forward Jordan Morgan told reporters. "That's what it's all about in this conference.' One of Michigan's key Big 10 road wins thus far was over Wisconsin -- a 77-70 decision Jan. 18 that was highlighted by 23 points, four assists and two blocks from leading scorer Nik Stauskas.
•PREGAME NOTES: Michigan has wins at Michigan State, Wisconsin and Ohio State all in the same season for the first time since 1992-93.... Hayes has reached double figures in scoring in each of Wisconsin's last four games, averaging 15.... The Wolverines are 14-2 when F Glenn Robinson III scores 10 points or more.... Wisconsin is 4-18 against the spread when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last two seasons, including 3-12 ATS after 15 or more games.... Michigan is 20-9 versus the spread when playing only their 2nd game in eight days over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN covered the spread 505 times, while WISCONSIN covered the spread 472 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN won the game straight up 621 times, while WISCONSIN won 350 times. In 1000 simulated games, WISCONSIN covered the first half line 485 times, while MICHIGAN covered the first half line 471 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--WISCONSIN is 15-14 against the spread versus MICHIGAN since 1997.
--WISCONSIN is 19-10 straight up against MICHIGAN since 1997.
--10 of 19 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--MICHIGAN is 15-12 versus the first half line when playing against WISCONSIN since 1997.
--10 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Under is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Michigan.
--Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--WIS is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten.
--WIS is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games.
--Over is 19-7 in WIS last 26 Sun. games.
--MICH is 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
--Over is 7-3 in MICH last 10 overall.
--Over is 7-3 in MICH last 10 vs. Big Ten.
_______________________________
#857 SMU @ #858 TEMPLE
(TV: 2:00 PM EST, CBS Sports Network - Line: SMU -8.5, Total: N/A) - Hall of Famer Larry Brown returns to Philadelphia as a college head coach as his streaking Southern Methodist squad visits Temple on Sunday. The 73-year-old Brown has guided the Mustangs to their eighth 20-victory regular season in school history -- 10th overall -- and only an epic collapse can prevent them from being part of the NCAA Tournament for the first time in 21 years. Temple is struggling and has lost its last four outings by an average of 19.3 points.
Brown’s squad reached the 20-win mark and extended its winning streak to four games with a 77-65 victory over Rutgers on Friday. One of Brown’s NBA stints was as the head man for the Philadelphia 76ers and the second-year SMU coach is happy to be back on the sidelines. “I am 73 years old and I am allowed to do something I love,” Brown told reporters after the win over the Scarlet Knights. “I get to be around the kids and great coaches sitting next to me. I didn’t handle retirement well. I am not ready to go to Florida. I am loving what I am doing.”
•ABOUT SOUTHERN METHODIST (20-5 SU, 15-6-0 ATS, 9-3 American Athletic Conference): The Mustangs defeated Temple on Feb. 6 when Markus Kennedy and Shawn Williams each scored 14 points in an easy 75-52 victory. Kennedy ranks second on the team in scoring (11.7) and leads in both rebounding (7.2) and blocked shots (36). Guard Nic Moore leads in scoring (14 per game), assists (4.7) and 3-pointers (54) and scored 21 points – making five 3-pointers – in the victory over Rutgers but SMU’s success hinges on a defense that is holding opponents to 61.2 points and 36.9 percent shooting.
•ABOUT TEMPLE (6-17 SU, 8-12-1 ATS, 1-10 American Athletic Conference): The Owls have lost 12 of their last 13 games in a highly disappointing campaign that finds them residing in last place in the AAC. Temple can boast about being the only team in the nation with four players averaging 14 or more points but doesn’t possess much depth behind guards Dalton Pepper (17 per game), Will Cummings (16.3) and Quenton DeCosey (14.9), and forward Anthony Lee (14 points, team-best 8.9 rebounds). Temple was routed 82-58 by Louisville on Friday when it shot just 37.3 percent from the field.
•PREGAME NOTES: Prior to this month’s first contest, the teams hadn’t met since Temple beat SMU 90-81 in the third-place game of the 1956 NCAA Tournament.... Lee has 10 double-doubles while leading the AAC in rebounding.... The Mustangs have outrebounded their opponents 21 times and have an average edge of 6.8 boards per game.... Temple is 36-15 versus the spread in home games versus good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 42% after 15+ games since 1997.... SMU is 14-4 against the spread versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, SMU covered the spread 508 times, while TEMPLE covered the spread 492 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SMU won the game straight up 734 times, while TEMPLE won 243 times. In 1000 simulated games, TEMPLE covered the first half line 515 times, while SMU covered the first half line 435 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SMU is 1-0 against the spread versus TEMPLE since 1997.
--SMU is 1-0 straight up against TEMPLE since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--SMU is 1-0 versus the first half line when playing against TEMPLE since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--SMU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games.
--SMU is 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
--Under is 4-1 in SMU last 5 Sunday games.
--TEM is 9-21 ATS in their last 30 home games.
--TEM is 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 Sun. games.
--Over is 16-5 in TEM last 21 home games.
_______________________________
#859 OREGON ST @ #860 OREGON
(TV: 3:00 PM EST, Fox Sports 1 - Line: Oregon -9, Total: N/A) - Two schools who have squared off more than any other in college basketball history meet for the 341st time when Oregon State visits Oregon on Sunday. The Beavers won the first meeting on Jan. 19 and are attempting to sweep the Ducks for only the second time in the last 21 seasons. Oregon is trying to salvage its season as it has lost eight of 10 games since an impressive 13-0 start.
Part of the Ducks’ lengthy slide involves an inability to prevail in close games as Oregon has suffered four two-point losses in Pac-12 play. The Ducks have lost three of their last four games – all the defeats were by two points – but remain hopeful of turning things around with five of their final seven regular-season games at home. “A lot of that is coaching,” Oregon coach Dana Altman told reporters. “We get in those situations where we haven’t executed and that is as much me as anybody, but I feel bad for the guys.”
•ABOUT OREGON STATE (13-10 SU, 10-9-1 ATS, 5-6 Pac-12): Guard Roberto Nelson (21.5) is one of the more potent offensive players in the Pac-12 but forward Devon Collier (14 per game) has been highly effective of late. Collier has scored in double digits in six straight games, is second in the conference with a 60.4 shooting percentage and is five points away becoming the ninth player in program history to reach 1,400 career points. Center Angus Brandt (12.6) has nine consecutive double-figure outings, the best such streak of his career.
•ABOUT OREGON (15-8 SU, 11-9-2 ATS, 3-8 Pac-12): Leading scorer Joseph Young (18.4) scored 29 points against Arizona State in the Ducks’ most-recent game and all of them came in the second half. “He got it going and everything looked good,” Altman said afterward. “In 25 years I’ve seen a lot of things but 29 in a half is pretty good.” Oregon features three other double-digit scorers in forward Mike Moser (12.6) and guards Jason Calliste (12.4) and Damyean Dotson (10.3) while averaging 83.3 points per game.
•PREGAME NOTES: The schools have split the past four meetings in Eugene after Oregon reeled off 16 straight home victories.... Beavers PF Eric Moreland has blocked 167 shots, five off the school’s career mark held by Scott Haskin (1988-93).... The Ducks lead the Pac-12 with a 77.8 free-throw percentage, led by PG Johnathan Loyd (89.7), Young (89.6) and Calliste (86.1).... Oregon State is 9-1 versus the spread in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last two seasons.... Oregon is 1-9 against the spread in home games after three consecutive conference games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, OREGON covered the spread 565 times, while OREGON ST covered the spread 399 times. *EDGE against the spread =OREGON. In 1000 simulated games, OREGON won the game straight up 791 times, while OREGON ST won 196 times. In 1000 simulated games, OREGON covered the first half line 500 times, while OREGON ST covered the first half line 454 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OREGON is 18-15 against the spread versus OREGON ST since 1997.
--OREGON is 24-9 straight up against OREGON ST since 1997.
--15 of 22 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--OREGON ST is 18-14 versus the first half line when playing against OREGON since 1997.
--12 of 21 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Oregon.
--Underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--ORST is 4-1 ATS L5 games following a ATS loss.
--ORST is 13-6-2 ATS L21 games following a S.U. loss.
--Under is 4-0 in ORST last 4 Sunday games.
--ORE is 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
--Over is 6-2 in ORE last 8 Sun. games.
--Over is 9-3 in ORE last 12 home games.
_______________________________
#861 NEBRASKA @ #862 MICHIGAN ST
(TV: 3:00 PM EST, Big Ten Network - Line: Michigan State -13, Total: N/A) - Adreian Payne’s conditioning was thought to be an issue after missing seven games, but he might have come back better than ever. Payne, who looks to lead No. 10 Michigan State at home against Nebraska on Sunday, was limited in his first game back but has played more than 30 minutes in each of his last two – amassing 44 points and 18 rebounds. “I'm a little surprised that he’s come back as strong so quickly. He's carrying our team,” coach Tom Izzo said after Thursday’s win against Northwestern.
The Wildcats were equally impressed with the senior forward as coach Chris Collins told reporters that “Payne is as good as any front-line player that we've played against all year long." Payne will be the Cornhuskers’ problem on Sunday, although Nebraska has won five of its last seven conference games – the first time it has done that since 2003-04. The Cornhuskers ended their 12-game road losing streak at Northwestern on Feb. 8 before winning for the fourth time in five games with Wednesday’s home victory against last-place Illinois.
•ABOUT NEBRASKA (13-10 SU, 14-8-0 ATS, 5-6 Big Ten): Despite re-aggravating an early-season knee injury, Shavon Shields posted a career-high 33 points and went 15-of-15 from the foul line – matching the best free-throw effort by a Cornhusker since Jack Moore made all 15 of his against Oklahoma State in 1982. Shields is the second Nebraska player to score at least 30 points in a game this season, joining Terran Petteway as the third duo in school history to accomplish that feat. Ray Gallegos (145 career 3-pointers) is one 3-pointer shy of tying Cookie Belcher for seventh on the Cornhuskers’ all-time list.
•ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (21-4 SU, 14-8-2 ATS, 10-2 Big Ten): The Spartans picked apart a Wildcats defense that held them to a season-low 54 points on Jan. 15, using Payne’s inside presence to free up their shooters from the 3-point line, where they shot 11-of-21 in an 85-70 win. “(Payne) causes you to help so much. We had to pick our poison in terms of what we wanted to try to give up,” Collins said. Not only were Payne’s 14 rebounds the most by a Michigan State player this season, but his 20 points also gave him back-to-back 20-point games for the first time in his career.
•PREGAME NOTES: Michigan State G Travis Trice has not committed a turnover since replacing Keith Appling, who has missed the last three games due to a wrist injury and is out indefinitely.... Nebraska is bidding for its fifth conference win in six tries – a feat the Cornhuskers haven’t accomplished since they went 9-1 over a 10-game stretch in the Big 12 during the 1998-99 season.... The Spartans recorded 10 3-pointers for the 10th time on Thursday – and are undefeated when they do so – after losing the only game in which they hit that benchmark last season.... The Cornhuskers are 7-0 against the spread versus good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 42% after 15+ games this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN ST covered the spread 524 times, while NEBRASKA covered the spread 455 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN ST won the game straight up 861 times, while NEBRASKA won 119 times. In 1000 simulated games, NEBRASKA covered the first half line 541 times, while MICHIGAN ST covered the first half line 459 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MICHIGAN ST is 2-1 against the spread versus NEBRASKA since 1997.
--MICHIGAN ST is 4-0 straight up against NEBRASKA since 1997.
--2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--NEBRASKA is 3-0 versus the first half line when playing against MICHIGAN ST since 1997.
--2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--NEB is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. Big Ten.
--NEB is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
--Under is 20-7 in NEB last 27 Sun. games.
--MSU is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Big Ten.
--MSU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--Over is 5-1 in MSU last 6 home games.
_______________________________
#863 WICHITA ST @ #864 EVANSVILLE
(TV: 5:00 PM EST, ESPN3 - Line: Wichita State -13, Total: N/A) - Wichita State's pursuit of perfection continues Sunday when it visits Evansville, which has given the Shockers all sorts of issues recently. After opening last season 15-1 and 4-0 in the Missouri Valley Conference, Wichita State was upended at Evansville before later losing to the Aces at home to end a five-game winning streak. Although Evansville has fallen in the conference standings this season, it also gave the Shockers all they could handle in the first meeting at Wichita on Feb. 1, leading by as many as 15 points early on before fading in an 81-67 defeat.
The second-ranked Shockers have faced challenges from every opponent since, winning their next three by an average of nine points and surviving some sloppy play to secure a 78-67 win over Southern Illinois on Tuesday. Ron Baker scored 19 points and Cleanthony Early added 18 as Wichita State became the 25th team in NCAA history to start 26-0. Evansville snapped a four-game slide with a wild 104-98 overtime win Wednesday against Illinois State, which rallied from 25 points down in the second half before falling short.
•ABOUT WICHITA STATE (26-0 SU, 16-6-1 ATS, 13-0 MVC): The Shockers have matched the NCAA's best start since the 2004-05 Illinois team that began 29-0 and are five wins away from becoming the first squad since St. Joseph's the year before to carry a perfect mark through the regular season. And with each historical marker comes a stiffer challenge from conference foes itching to be the one to end the streak - Wichita State has trailed at halftime nine times this season, including Tuesday against the Salukis and in the previous matchup with Evansville. The Shockers survived against the Aces due to two of their strengths, winning the rebounding battle 40-29 and going 24-for-33 at the line.
•ABOUT EVANSVILLE (11-15 SU, 10-10-1 ATS, 4-9 MVC): Defending the Aces starts and ends with D.J. Balentine, who had 26 points in the loss to Wichita State earlier this month and produced 38 in the win over Illinois State. Balentine, who leads all scorers in MVC play at 23.6 points per game, is the only Evansville player averaging in double figures. Center Egidijus Mockevicius has done a bit more to help out lately, averaging 15.3 points, 10.3 rebounds and three blocks in the last three games.
•PREGAME NOTES: Baker and Early are both 46-for-130 from 3-point range this season.... Shockers F Darius Carter is averaging 13.5 points - more than five above his season average - on 11-for-14 shooting in his last two games.... Evansville is first in the conference in made free throws and last in made 3-pointers.... The Shockers are 7-0 versus the spread in road games versus good shooting teams - making more than 45% of their shots this season.... Evansville is 22-5 against the spread versus good defensive teams - allowing less than 64 points/game over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, EVANSVILLE covered the spread 553 times, while WICHITA ST covered the spread 418 times. *EDGE against the spread =EVANSVILLE. In 1000 simulated games, WICHITA ST won the game straight up 770 times, while EVANSVILLE won 210 times. In 1000 simulated games, EVANSVILLE covered the first half line 619 times, while WICHITA ST covered the first half line 381 times. *EDGE against first half line =EVANSVILLE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--EVANSVILLE is 21-12 against the spread versus WICHITA ST since 1997.
--WICHITA ST is 21-13 straight up against EVANSVILLE since 1997.
--9 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--WICHITA ST is 18-16 versus the first half line when playing against EVANSVILLE since 1997.
--12 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Shockers are 1-10 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
--Shockers are 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Evansville.
--Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
--Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Evansville.
--Underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--WICH is 36-16 ATS in their last 52 road games.
--WICH is 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 games overall.
--Over is 9-3 in WICH last 12 Sun. games.
--EVAN is 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 home games.
--Under is 4-1 in EVAN last 5 home games.
--Over is 8-2 in EVAN last 10 Sun. games.
_______________________________
#865 VILLANOVA @ #866 CREIGHTON
(TV: 5:00 PM EST, Fox Sports 1 - Line: Creighton -3, Total: N/A) - In its first meeting against Villanova on Jan. 20, Creighton drilled a Big East- and school-record 21 3-pointers while handing the Wildcats their worst home loss since 1980-81. No. 6 Villanova, which hits the road Sunday in a showdown between the top two teams in the conference, holds a half-game lead over the 17th-ranked Bluejays and has won six straight since their 28-point setback. "I think a lot of people watched that game and learned how not to play them," Wildcats coach Jay Wright said.
Wright suggested the Wildcats’ overall aggressiveness worked against them in the first meeting and perhaps no Creighton player benefited more than Ethan Wragge, who tied a school record with nine 3-pointers. Villanova began its three-game road trip with an 87-62 win over DePaul on Wednesday, but faces a difficult challenge against the Bluejays, who have won four of five since routing the Wildcats. Creighton, which has posted a 20-win season for the 16th time in 17 years with Thursday’s five-point win at Butler, is looking for its 16th straight home victory.
•ABOUT VILLANOVA (22-2 SU, 17-5-0 ATS, 10-1 Big East): The Wildcats took a page out of the Bluejays’ book in the win over DePaul, knocking down a season-high 15 3-pointers while leaving Wright pleased with his team’s focus. “I know they're going to concentrate on (Sunday), but for a team to go in and concentrate like they did against DePaul is impressive to me," Wright told the school’s official website. Villanova has also picked it up at the defensive end, allowing 61.4 points over its last five games after surrendering 96 to Creighton and 85 five days later at Marquette.
•ABOUT CREIGHTON (20-4 SU, 13-9-0 ATS, 10-2 Big East): In addition to passing Allan Houston and Kevin Bradshaw on the NCAA's career scoring list against Butler, Doug McDermott delivered his second game-winning basket in the Bluejays’ last three games and third of the season after never having done so previously. Incidentally, McDermott’s go-ahead 3-pointer sparked a game-ending 7-0 run and gave coach Greg McDermott (Doug’s father) his 100th career win at Creighton. Greg McDermott needed only 134 games to do so, allowing him to reach the benchmark quicker than all but one coach in school history.
•PREGAME NOTES: Doug McDermott (2,824 points) is eight points shy of tying Otis Birdsong for 14th on the NCAA all-time scoring list and 26 away from Larry Bird for 13th place.... Villanova is 6-0 on the road in conference play for the first time since 2005-06.... The Bluejays have won 21 straight home games against teams from BCS leagues.... The Wildcats are 10-1 against the spread versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 12 turnovers/game over the last two seasons.... Creighton is 14-4 versus the spread versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots/game on the season over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, CREIGHTON covered the spread 542 times, while VILLANOVA covered the spread 430 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, CREIGHTON won the game straight up 622 times, while VILLANOVA won 358 times. In 1000 simulated games, CREIGHTON covered the first half line 531 times, while VILLANOVA covered the first half line 469 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--CREIGHTON is 1-0 against the spread versus VILLANOVA since 1997.
--CREIGHTON is 1-0 straight up against VILLANOVA since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--CREIGHTON is 1-0 versus the first half line when playing against VILLANOVA since 1997.
--1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--VILL is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big East.
--Over is 13-3 in VILL last 16 road games.
--Over is 12-4 in VILL last 16 vs. Big East.
--CRE is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.
--CRE is 30-10 ATS in their last 40 Sun. games.
--Under is 6-2-1 in CRE last 9 home games.
_______________________________
#867 RUTGERS @ #868 LOUISVILLE
(TV: 6:00 PM EST, ESPN2 - Line: Louisville -21.5, Total: N/A) - With seven wins in its last eight games, eighth-ranked Louisville is set to host Rutgers on Sunday as it looks to creep up the American Athletic Conference standings. Since a Jan. 30 loss against then-No. 15 Cincinnati, the Cardinals have rolled, winning three straight by healthy margins. Another showdown with the Bearcats looms large next weekend, but with tilts against Rutgers and South Florida first, coach Rick Pitino told the Lexington Herald-Leader, "(This team) never looks by an opponent."
The Scarlet Knights became the latest victims of upstart Southern Methodist on Friday, falling at home 77-65, and despite six losses in their last eight games, coach Eddie Jordan sees plenty of positives and a model to follow. "I see improvement in the way we're going," he told the New Jersey Star-Ledger. "Look at what (SMU) has gone through from last year to this year. They're running (coach) Larry Brown's system now. It's crisp. It's disciplined. It's side to side, like we want to do."
•ABOUT RUTGERS (10-15 SU, 10-13-0 ATS, 4-8 AAC): Forward Kadeem Jack, who went for 15 points and eight rebounds against SMU, echoed his coach's sentiments for the future - as well as the comparison to the Mustangs - while admitting some current shortcomings. "We're still inconsistent," Jack said, adding, "We have to figure everything out. Once we get more consistent, we can compare ourselves to a team like that." Jack's 14.4-point average ranks second on the team behind guard Myles Mack (15.8), who also notches a team-high 4.3 assists.
•ABOUT LOUISVILLE (20-4 SU, 12-10-0 ATS, 9-2 AAC): The Cardinals trail Cincinnati by a game and a half in the conference standings but even if Louisville roars past the Scarlet Knights, Bulls and Bearcats in succession, their close to the regular season schedule is no cakewalk. The Cardinals' final four games feature home dates with Temple and Connecticut sandwiching road games at No. 22 Memphis and SMU. Louisville's leading scorer, guard Russ Smith, averages an AAC-best 18.2 points to go with a team-leading 4.6 assists, while forward Montrezl Harrell notches 13 points per game and a team-high 8.3 rebounds.
•PREGAME NOTES: Louisville's offense averages an AAC-best 82.3 points, which ranks among the top 15 scoring outputs in the nation.... Rutgers' defense allows 76.4 points per game, ahead of only Temple (78) among AAC teams, and yielded 83 to the Cardinals in a Jan. 4 home loss.... Louisville has connected on 48.7 percent from the field and 40.1 percent from 3-point range in conference play - both AAC bests.... The Scarlet Knights are 6-15 against the spread versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last two seasons.... The Cardinals are 16-3 versus the spread off three straight wins against conference rivals over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, LOUISVILLE covered the spread 505 times, while RUTGERS covered the spread 495 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, LOUISVILLE won the game straight up 949 times, while RUTGERS won 42 times. In 1000 simulated games, RUTGERS covered the first half line 547 times, while LOUISVILLE covered the first half line 411 times. *EDGE against first half line =RUTGERS.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--LOUISVILLE is 6-3 against the spread versus RUTGERS since 1997.
--LOUISVILLE is 8-1 straight up against RUTGERS since 1997.
--4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--RUTGERS is 6-3 versus the first half line when playing against LOUISVILLE since 1997.
--5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
--Scarlet Knights are 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--RUTG is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.
--RUTG is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
--Over is 6-0 in RUTG last 6 overall.
--LOU is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 Sun. games.
--Over is 21-9 in LOU last 30 overall.
--Over is 23-9 in LOU last 32 home games.
_______________________________
#869 NOTRE DAME @ #870 BOSTON COLLEGE
(TV: 6:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Boston College -1, Total: N/A) - Pat Connaughton and Zach Auguste will enjoy a homecoming of sorts when Notre Dame visits Boston College on Sunday in a matchup of teams near the bottom of the ACC standings. Connaughton, a senior starter who averages 13.1 points and 7.5 rebounds, hails from nearby Arlington, Mass., while sophomore reserve Auguste calls Marlborough home. While it will be the first game for the Fighting Irish at Boston College since a Big East clash in 2004, the squads met 15 days ago as host Notre Dame won in overtime to snap a three-game losing streak.
After Steve Donahue guided the team to a 21-13 record in his first season, things have gone south quickly for the Boston College coach, who is 31-57 over the last three campaigns - including a 6-18 mark this year. The Eagles are in the midst of their second four-game losing streak of the season, and a meeting with No.1 Syracuse follows the matchup with the Fighting Irish. "The reality of it is, we've gotten ourselves into holes and we've probably gotten some bad habits relying on Olivier Hanlan to get us back in the game, which he can do," Donahue told reporters. "I'd rather us play team basketball that I know we can play."
•ABOUT NOTRE DAME (13-12 SU, 7-14-2 ATS, 4-8 ACC): Along with Garrick Sherman and Eric Atkins, Connaughton is one of the more productive players for the Fighting Irish, who have had to make do after the loss of leading scorer Jerian Grant earlier in the season. Connaughton had 17 points and nine rebounds in the victory over the Eagles on Feb.1 but has gone seven games since his last 20-point performance. Sherman leads the squad with 14.3 points and 7.9 rebounds while Atkins puts up 14 points and 4.9 assists per game.
•ABOUT BOSTON COLLEGE (6-18 SU, 7-14-1 ATS, 2-9 ACC): The sophomore Hanlan has come to play in just about every game for the Eagles, averaging 18.2 points, 3.6 rebounds and 2.9 assists - including 25 points in a loss to Duke. "During the season, I'm just trying to focus on the team things and playing hard," he told reporters. "I know whenever I'm aggressive, good things happen. I've got to play hard and keep being positive." Ryan Anderson is the only other player to average double figures at 15 points and also leads the team in rebounding with 6.9.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Fighting Irish lead the series 12-10 but are just 2-6 on the road.... Auguste averages 6.7 points and 4.2 rebounds while playing 15.6 minutes.... Connaughton was 4-2 with a 1.71 ERA as a pitcher on the Notre Dame baseball team last season.... Boston College is 0-6 versus the spread in home games when playing only their 2nd game in a week, and 0-6 ATS after 4 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season.... The Fighting Irish are 18-7 against the spread in road games versus good free throw shooting teams - making more than 72% of their attempts after 15+ games since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, NOTRE DAME covered the spread 552 times, while BOSTON COLLEGE covered the spread 433 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, NOTRE DAME won the game straight up 531 times, while BOSTON COLLEGE won 448 times. In 1000 simulated games, NOTRE DAME covered the first half line 560 times, while BOSTON COLLEGE covered the first half line 440 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--BOSTON COLLEGE is 5-4 against the spread versus NOTRE DAME since 1997.
--NOTRE DAME is 7-2 straight up against BOSTON COLLEGE since 1997.
--4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--BOSTON COLLEGE is 7-2 versus the first half line when playing against NOTRE DAME since 1997.
--3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--ND is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Sun. games.
--ND is 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
--ND is 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--BC is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.
--BC is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Sunday games.
--BC is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Atlantic Coast.
_______________________________
#871 MINNESOTA @ #872 NORTHWESTERN
(TV: 6:00 PM EST, BTN - Line: Minnesota -3.5, Total: N/A) - Minnesota can avoid being swept by Northwestern with a road win in Big Ten play on Sunday night. The Wildcats narrowly escaped Minneapolis with a 55-54 victory on February 1[SUP]st[/SUP], after Maurice Walker missed what would have been a game-winning put-back for the Gophers as time expired. Walker led the team with 14 points off the bench, but it wasn't enough to make up for the absence of Minnesota's leading scorer, Andre Hollins.
Hollins missed two games with a severe ankle sprain in late January but already is showing signs of a full recovery with a 22-point performance in a 78-70 loss to then-No. 21 Wisconsin on Thursday. The Wildcats have dropped their last two games in league play, mainly because scoring has been provided by just two players. Drew Crawford and JerShon Cobb combined for 40 points in Thursday's loss to then- No. 9 Michigan State while the rest of the team finished with 30.
•ABOUT MINNESOTA (16-9 SU, 9-11-1 ATS, 5-7 Big Ten): The Gophers have come up just short in four of their last five games, which have been decided by eight points or fewer. Thursday's loss to Wisconsin was close despite the final score, but turnovers changed the outcome of the game for Minnesota. "We were making plays that were just uncharacteristic of us, for whatever reason," coach Richard Pitino told reporters.
•ABOUT NORTHWESTERN (12-13 SU, 9-15-0 ATS, 5-7 Big Ten): The Wildcats rank dead last in the Big Ten in points per game with 62.1, but they continue to counter that weakness with tight defense. "We’ve been doing a good job the last month of making people play our game," coach Chris Collins told the media following Thursday's game. Northwestern is holding opponents to an average of 63.7 points and has kept six different conference rivals to 60 or fewer.
•PREGAME NOTES: Crawford is the Big Ten's active leading scorer with 1,807 career points.... Minnesota leads the conference in steals with 201 and is averaging 8.04.... The Gophers lead the all-time series 93-63 but have lost five straight at Welsh-Ryan Arena.... Northwestern is 7-17 against the spread versus excellent ball handling teams - committing less than 12 turnovers/game over the last two seasons.... Minnesota is 1-9 versus the spread in road games versus poor 3-point shooting teams - making less than 31% of their attempts after 15+ games since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MINNESOTA covered the spread 514 times, while NORTHWESTERN covered the spread 486 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, MINNESOTA won the game straight up 612 times, while NORTHWESTERN won 363 times. In 1000 simulated games, MINNESOTA covered the first half line 489 times, while NORTHWESTERN covered the first half line 472 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NORTHWESTERN is 20-15 against the spread versus MINNESOTA since 1997.
--MINNESOTA is 19-16 straight up against NORTHWESTERN since 1997.
--15 of 25 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--NORTHWESTERN is 18-16 versus the first half line when playing against MINNESOTA since 1997.
--14 of 25 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
--Home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
--Golden Gophers are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Northwestern.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MINN is 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games.
--MINN is 17-37 ATS in their last 54 Sun. games.
--Over is 4-0 in MINN last 4 Sunday games.
--Under is 8-1 in NW last 9 overall.
--Under is 8-1 in NW last 9 vs. Big Ten.
--Under is 17-4 in NW last 21 home games.
_______________________________
#873 GEORGETOWN @ #874 ST JOHN'S
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, Fox Sports 1 - Line: St. John's -4, Total: N/A) - When one thinks of the glory days of the old Big East, battles between Georgetown and St. John's are some of the most revered. Now that the conference has changed, with many original members having moved on, it's still the Hoyas and Red Storm doing battle in the middle of February with potential postseason spots on the line. Both teams come in with four-game winning streaks, so they enter Sunday's matchup at St. John's playing some of their best basketball of the season.
The Red Storm have won seven of their last eight contests, with the only loss coming at then-No. 20 Creighton on Jan. 28 - a setback they avenged at home 12 days later. The Hoyas snapped a five-game losing streak with a win over then-No. 7 Michigan State on Feb. 1 and haven't lost since. The conference rivals met on Jan. 4 in Washington D.C., with the Hoyas coming out on top.
•ABOUT GEORGETOWN (15-9 SU, 12-11-0 ATS, 6-6 Big East): Turnovers have been a focus for coach John Thompson III and his team of late, with the club's latest hot streak coinciding with three straight games with a single-digit total of miscues. If the Hoyas are going to make a run at a postseason berth, they must take care of the basketball and not give opponents extra possessions. “I think the guys,they understand what we're looking for, and we're not forcing anything,” Thompson told the Washington Post. “We understand, this group, we can't turn the ball over. We realize we can't just be careless with the ball.”
•ABOUT ST. JOHN'S (16-9 SU, 10-13-0 ATS, 6-6 Big East): The Red Storm seem to finally be finding their game, playing as a team on both ends of the floor as they begin to resemble a potential postseason darkhorse. Still, despite the current run, coach Steve Lavin continues to remind his team there's more work to be done. “You want to win every game, but it's rewarding to see the development coming, given our earlier struggles,” Lavin said. “We're not satisfied and cannot afford to be complacent as we haven't accomplished anything of significance yet.”
•PREGAME NOTES: The Hoyas (.395) and Red Storm (.405) rank first and third, respectively, in the Big East in field-goal percentage defense.... St. John's C Chris Obekpa easily leads the Big East in blocked shots, averaging 3.2.... St. John's leads the all-time series 53-47, but the Hoyas have won the last six meetings.... The Hoyas are 10-0 versus the spread in February games over the last two seasons, and 6-0 ATS in road games after successfully covering the spread in three or more consecutive games over the last three seasons.... The Red Strom are 33-56 against the spread after a win by six points or less since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, GEORGETOWN covered the spread 525 times, while ST JOHNS covered the spread 444 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, ST JOHNS won the game straight up 576 times, while GEORGETOWN won 388 times. In 1000 simulated games, GEORGETOWN covered the first half line 527 times, while ST JOHNS covered the first half line 424 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--ST JOHNS is 15-11 against the spread versus GEORGETOWN since 1997.
--GEORGETOWN is 14-12 straight up against ST JOHNS since 1997.
--14 of 21 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--ST JOHNS is 15-11 versus the first half line when playing against GEORGETOWN since 1997.
--13 of 20 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Hoyas are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Under is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings.
--Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in St. John's.
--Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--GTWN is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Big East.
--GTWN is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--Under is 5-2 in GTWN last 7 Sunday games.
--SJU is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
--Under is 4-1-1 in SJU last 6 vs. Big East.
--Under is 3-0-1 in SJU last 4 Sunday games.
_______________________________
#875 COLORADO @ #876 USC
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Colorado -3, Total: N/A) - USC has ended a lot of Pac-12 losing streaks this season, and Colorado attempts to become the latest team to get a bounce-back win against the last-place club when it visits the Trojans on Sunday. The fifth-place Buffaloes are coming off an 18-point loss Thursday at second-place UCLA, which stung even more after conference leader Arizona lost to Arizona State a day later. The Trojans, who fell for the 10th time in their last 11 games Thursday, suffered an 83-62 loss on Jan. 18 at Colorado, which halted a two-game slide.
When the conference rivals last met, the Buffaloes still were dealing with the shock of losing their most versatile and valuable player, Spencer Dinwiddie, to a season-ending knee injury in their previous game. The win over the Trojans was sandwiched between a pair of two-game losing streaks, but Colorado then began to find its way by winning three straight prior to the loss to the Bruins. Colorado starters Askia Booker and Xavier Johnson, who both are from Los Angeles, have elevated their games in Dinwiddie’s absence.
•ABOUT COLORADO (18-7 SU, 13-11-0 ATS, 7-5 Pac-12): Josh Scott is another member of the Buffaloes who has been on a tear during conference play. He has recorded four of his six 20-point performances in the last seven games, starting with the first meeting with the Trojans in which he finished with 20 and seven rebounds. He’ll give up some height to 7-2 center Omar Oraby of USC, but Scott can neutralize that with better footwork.
•ABOUT USC (10-14 SU, 9-12-1 ATS, 1-10 Pac-12): The roller-coaster career of senior guard J.T. Terrell took another turn when he played a season-low four minutes Thursday, five days after logging 35 in a loss to UCLA. The Trojans had high hopes for Terrell, the team’s top returning scorer (11.7) who recorded 20 points in the season-opening loss at Utah State but has provided few highlights since. After being suspended eight games during non-conference play for academic reasons, he earned his way back into the starting lineup with some solid performances but now seems to be on the outside looking in again.
•PREGAME NOTES: Colorado G Xavier Talton is 10-of-14 from 3-point range in the last four games.... Booker has 31 assists in the last four games, including 12 against UCLA. He became the first Colorado player in six years to reach double figures in that category.... USC F Byron Wesley is averaging 23.3 points over his last four games to boost his season average to a team-high 17.4.... The Trojans are 9-20 versus the spread in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons, including 4-15 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%).
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, COLORADO covered the spread 581 times, while USC covered the spread 389 times. *EDGE against the spread =COLORADO. In 1000 simulated games, COLORADO won the game straight up 664 times, while USC won 317 times. In 1000 simulated games, COLORADO covered the first half line 574 times, while USC covered the first half line 426 times. *EDGE against first half line =COLORADO.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--COLORADO is 2-1 against the spread versus USC since 1997.
--COLORADO is 3-0 straight up against USC since 1997.
--2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--COLORADO is 3-0 versus the first half line when playing against USC since 1997.
--2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--COLO is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
--COLO is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Sunday games.
--Under is 14-4 in COLO last 18 road games.
--USC is 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 Sun. games.
--Over is 6-1-1 in USC last 8 overall.
--Over is 6-1-1 in USC last 8 vs. Pacific-12.
_______________________________
