NBA betting report: Best ways to wager all 30 teams at the All-Star break
By JOE FORTENBAUGH
Judging by the NBA’s ratings through the first half of the season, you’ve been watching quite a bit of Golden State Warriors basketball.
We can’t say that we blame you. Led by the reigning MVP in Stephen Curry, who is currently on pace to obliterate the league record for three-pointers made in a season (286) by 100, Golden State’s fast-paced, take-no-prisoners approach to hoops is as captivating as it is lethal.
And if you’ve been watching Golden State basketball as much as the ratings indicate, then you’ve no doubt heard on countless occasions the comparisons to Michael Jordan’s 1995-1996 Chicago Bulls, who went on to win an NBA-record 72 games during the regular season.
Through 52 games, the Warriors reside at 48-4 while Jordan’s Bulls were 47-5. But more impressively, Curry’s Warriors are averaging a staggering 115.5 points per game while Jordan’s Bulls went on to average 105.2 points per contest.
This is important to note because the league scoring average during the 1995-1996 season was 99.5 points per game per team, while this year’s team scoring average is 101.8 points per game. That means Chicago exceeded the league average by just 5.7 points per game while Golden State is smoking the league average by 13.7 points per game.
Yes, scoring is up. Just take a look at the last five years for proof:
2011-2012: 96.3 ppg
2012-2013: 98.1 ppg
2013-2014: 101.0 ppg
2014-2015: 100.0 ppg
2015-2016: 101.8 ppg
But if you think for one second that the increase in scoring means that there exists an edge when it comes to betting Over the NBA totals, you would be wise to think again.
Entering Thursday night’s slate of action, Overs were hitting just 50.19 percent of the time (396-393), meaning the bookmakers are well aware of the uptick in offensive production this season.
But that doesn’t mean a betting edge can’t be found elsewhere.
Golden State Warriors (48-4 SU, 31-20-1 ATS): The defending champs are riding an 11-game winning streak (7-4 ATS) into the All-Star break that features not one single second of fourth quarter time spent tied or trailing. Steve Kerr’s crew currently ranks first in the NBA in scoring (115.5 ppg), second in scoring margin (+12.5 ppg), first in offensive efficiency (113.1) and second in defensive efficiency (99.2).
Outside of backup center Festus Ezeli’s recent arthroscopic knee surgery (out for six weeks), the Dubs are healthy and poised to not only defend their title, but are currently on pace to break the 1995-1996 Chicago Bulls’ record for regular season wins (72).
San Antonio Spurs (45-8 SU, 34-19 ATS): No team in the league turned a bigger profit for its investors during the first half of the season than the San Antonio Spurs, who are a blistering 28-0 at home (19-9 ATS) entering the All-Star festivities.
In addition, this season marked the first time in NBA history that two clubs (Spurs and Warriors) recorded 45 or more wins prior to the All-Star break. San Antonio is crushing the opposition by an average of 13.3 points per game so far this season (first in NBA), a margin that rises to 16.1 points per game when playing within the confines of AT&T Center. Take note that the Over went 7-3-1 in the Spurs’ 11 games leading into the break.
Oklahoma City Thunder (40-14, 22-32 ATS): Is this the final season for the dynamic duo of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook? While nothing definitive will be known until the summer months, rumors continue to swirl that the defending champion Warriors plan to make a serious push to acquire Durant’s services once the 2014 MVP hits the open market.
Thanks to the league’s second-highest scoring offense (109.9 ppg), the Thunder found their way to 40 victories before the All-Star break, but Oklahoma City has surprisingly covered the number just 40.7 percent of the time this season. Fading this club on the road (7-17 ATS) is one approach bettors should consider, as is playing the Under in Oklahoma City home games (11-19 O/U).
Cleveland Cavaliers (38-14 SU, 23-26-3 ATS): What’s not surprising is the fact that LeBron & Co. find themselves on top of the Eastern Conference at the break. What should come as a stunner is that it’s by only three games over the upstart Raptors with Tyronn Lue at the helm instead of David Blatt.
The Cavs are a disappointing 23-26-3 ATS so far this season with three ATS losses over the franchise’s last five games. Take note: Cleveland has scored 103 or more points in eight of 10 games with Lue as head coach after scoring 103 or more points just 19 times in 42 games with Blatt at the controls.
Toronto Raptors (35-17 SU, 29-23 ATS): Outside of the Boston Celtics (31-23-1 ATS) and Orlando Magic (29-22-1 ATS), no team in the Eastern Conference has posted a better winning percentage against the spread through the first half of the season than the Raptors, who own the conference’s second-best home winning percentage at the break (18-6, .750).
Toronto’s scoring differential (plus-4.4) currently ranks fifth in the NBA, but be advised that the Raptors failed to cover the number in five of their final seven games entering All-Star Weekend – which happens to be in Toronto.
Los Angeles Clippers (35-18 SU, 25-25-3 ATS): Rumored to be extremely interested in acquiring the services of soon-to-be free agent Kevin Durant (assuming the club can trade Blake Griffin), the Clippers have proven to be a better bet when playing on the road (14-12-2 ATS) than when serving as host at Staples Center (11-13-1 ATS) so far this season.
DeAndre Jordan’s free throw shooting (.423) continues to function as the fly in the ointment, but the integral piece of information you need to know about this unit is that with Griffin in the lineup this season the Clippers have gone 17-13 as opposed to a staggering 18-5 with their power forward on the bench. They should thank that equipment manager for taking one for the team.
Memphis Grizzlies (31-22 SU, 26-26-1 ATS): Two-time All-Star and 2013 Defensive Player of the Year Marc Gasol is out for the season with a broken right foot, so you’ll probably want to avoid playing any Memphis futures for the time being.
On the flip side, the Over has cashed in five of the Grizzlies’ last six games as Dave Joerger’s crew has scored 100 or more points in 12 of its last 13 outings after reaching triple digits just 14 times through the club’s first 40 contests.
Boston Celtics (32-23 SU, 31-23-1): Don’t look now, but the NBA dark horse Boston Celtics (currently 35/1 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook), closed out the first half of the 2015-2016 season in spectacular fashion (10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS) while climbing all the way up to third place in the Eastern Conference.
The Celtics currently rank third in defensive efficiency (99.6), fourth in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.7) and sixth in points in the paint (44.5) while head coach Brad Stevens continues to make his case for NBA Coach of the Year.
Atlanta Hawks (31-24 SU, 27-27-1): It’s difficult to find an edge when it comes to the Hawks, who enter the break at 27-27-1 ATS with 27 Overs and 28 Unders through 55 contests. Atlanta doesn’t do one thing particularly well, but rather maintains a respectable level of production in virtually every meaningful category.
The franchise did, however, appear to hit its offensive stride prior to the All-Star break by notching 102 or more points in five of the club’s last six games prior to scoring 95 or fewer points in five of six outings.
Miami Heat (29-24 SU, 26-26-1 ATS): Scoring an average of just 96 points per game (29th in NBA), the Heat have been a solid under bet through the first half of the season by going Under the total in 34 of 53 contests to date (64.2 percent), part of which can be attributed to a unit that currently ranks sixth in defensive efficiency (100.6).
Keep a close eye on Miami whenever the schedule offers up a Sunday game, as the Heat enter the break at 6-2 SU when playing on the final day of the week while outscoring the opposition by an average of 7.3 points per game in those contests.
Indiana Pacers (28-25 SU, 26-26-1 ATS): A defensive-minded organization (third in defensive efficiency at 99.6) that is permitting an average of just 100.3 points per contest (seventh-best in NBA), the Pacers have provided very little reason to believe that they are anything more than a middle-of-the pack franchise with limited upside.
Dallas Mavericks (29-26 SU, 30-24-1 ATS): An Under team (25-29-1 O/U) that turned a nice profit through the first half of the season (30-24-1 ATS) especially when playing at home (16-10 ATS), the Mavericks have exceeded expectations by a hair when you dive inside the numbers and analyze the club’s minus-0.9 scoring differential.
Dallas dropped four of five outings entering the All-Star break (1-4 ATS) and, unlike most of the NBA, is a pedestrian 4-4 SU when playing on two days of rest. The second half of the campaign could prove to be a big challenge for Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavs.
Chicago Bulls (27-25 SU, 19-33 ATS): Joakim Noah (shoulder) is out for the season and Jimmy Butler (knee) is scheduled to miss the next month, so Chicago’s chances of making a serious run at Cleveland for the Eastern Conference title are virtually nonexistent.
Betting against the Bulls through the first half of the season has yielded profitable results, but take note that despite a 27-24-1 O/U mark, Unders are 15-10-1 when Chicago plays at home. Be advised that the Bulls enter All-Star weekend having lost six of seven (1-6 ATS) due, in large part, to a unit that ranks 26th in offensive efficiency (100.6).
Charlotte Hornets (27-26 SU, 26-26-1 ATS): For a franchise that went 33-49 last season with nine losing records over the last 11 years, 2015-2016 has been a step in the right direction for Steve Clifford and the Charlotte Hornets. However, despite winning five of their final six outings before the All-Star break, the Hornets got some brutal news.
Forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (12.7 points, 6.4 rebounds) suffered a torn labrum in his shoulder that could bring a premature end to the former Kentucky standout’s season. The Under is 17-11 in Charlotte’s home games this season, while the Over is 13-10-2 in the team’s road matchups.
Detroit Pistons (27-27 SU, 27-26-1 ATS): The Pistons haven’t won more than 39 games in a season since 2007-2008, so credit head coach Stan Van Gundy for elevating this franchise back to a level of respectability.
All-Star center Andre Drummond (17.0 points, 14.9 rebounds) has been an absolute beast for a Detroit squad that is a profitable 16-9-1 ATS at home this season. But now that we’ve dispensed with the niceties, take note that the Pistons closed out the first half of the season by dropping six of their final eight contests (2-6 ATS).
Portland Trail Blazers (27-27 SU, 30-24 ATS): The real story here should be the fact that point guard Damian Lillard (24.3 points, 7.3 assists, 4.4 rebounds) was left off both the All-Star team and 30-man Olympic invitational roster. But the upside is that the four-year veteran has guided the Blazers to both a .500 record and the seventh seed in the Western Conference despite losing power forward LaMarcus Aldridge last summer in free agency.
Portland has been exactly what you would expect from a .500 club through the first half of the season, but pay close attention to the fact that this team caught fire (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS) just before the break.
Utah Jazz (26-26 SU, 27-25 ATS): Shooting forward Gordon Hayward (19.9 points, 5.1 rebounds) and center Rudy Gobert (10.3 points, 10.5 rebounds) are coming into their own for a Jazz franchise that has won fewer than 40 games in four of the last five seasons.
Winners of seven of their last eight outings (5-3 ATS) the best way to bet this club is by playing the Under in Utah’s home games (16-10-1) as the Jazz currently rank 30th in the NBA in pace (92.9). In addition, note that Utah is an impressive 8-1 SU when playing on Saturdays this season.
Houston Rockets (27-28 SU, 23-32 ATS): One of the worst defensive teams in the league (26th in defensive efficiency), Houston will most certainly fall under the “sellers” category once the NBA trade deadline rolls around, as reports have already surfaced that general manager Daryl Morey is looking to move overpaid center Dwight Howard.
The Rockets play too much isolation basketball, turn the ball over at an alarming rate (16.2 turnovers per game, 27th in NBA) and are a pathetic 12-17 ATS at home through the first half of the season. These guys are arguably the league’s biggest disappointment.
Washington Wizards (23-28 SU, 26-25 ATS): The Wizards lost seven of their last 10 games (4-6 ATS) to close out the first half of the season, but are scoring above the league average at 102.9 points per game (8th in NBA) and currently boast a not-so-horrific scoring differential of -2.7, so it’s somewhat possible this team puts together a modest run upon returning from the All-Star break.
At the very least, the franchise has a star in point guard John Wall (20.1 points, 9.9 assists), who just earned his third consecutive All-Star nomination.
Orlando Magic (23-29 SU, 29-22-1 ATS): They’re six games under .500, but only the Boston Celtics have covered move spreads in the Eastern Conference this season than the Magic, who are 14-10-1 ATS on the road in 2015-2016.
Led by fifth-year center Nikola Vucevic (17.0 points, 8.9 rebounds), Orlando likes to play at a slow pace (21st in NBA) complemented by league-average defense (103.1 defensive efficiency, 16th in NBA). In classic Magic fashion, Orlando entered the break having dropped 12 of its last 15 outings, but somehow found a way to cover the number in six of its last seven contests.
New York Knicks (23-32 SU, 29-26 ATS): The bad news is that head coach Derek Fisher has already been fired, but the good news is that rookie Kristaps Porzingis (fourth overall selection in 2015 draft) has come on strong in 28.2 minutes per game this season while scoring 13.9 points and grabbing 7.7 rebounds per outing.
The worse news is that the Knicks dropped six straight and 10 of 11 entering All-Star weekend (3-8 ATS) and are now well on their way towards earning another lottery selection.
Sacramento Kings (22-31 SU, 23-30 ATS): A dumpster fire of the highest magnitude, don’t be surprised if head coach George Karl is sent packing before the second half of the season commences. The Kings lack heart, commitment, focus and, perhaps most importantly, any desire whatsoever to create stops on the defensive end of the floor (109.1 ppg surrendered, worst in NBA).
Sacramento dropped eight of 10 entering All-Star Weekend, but be advised that the Over has hit in seven of the Kings’ last eight games and is now 17-10 when this crew hits the road this season.
Denver Nuggets (22-32 SU, 30-22-2 ATS): They’re currently five games out of the playoff picture at the moment, but somehow the Nuggets have found a way to cover more spreads than any other team in the Western Conference, save for the San Antonio Spurs and Golden State Warriors.
And not only can you make money betting on this club when they hit the road (18-9-1 ATS), but the Over is 16-9-1 in Denver’s 26 home contests this season. Credit a 14-game stretch that featured a 12-2 ATS mark to close out the first half of the campaign for the surprising numbers.
Milwaukee Bucks (22-32 SU, 27-26-1 ATS): The Bucks posted a 41-41 record and grabbed the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference last season. This year has been a different story due, in large part, to the loss of head coach Jason Kidd, who underwent hip surgery back in December and is out of action indefinitely.
Milwaukee closed out the first half of the season with back-to-back wins over Boston and Washington, respectively, to bring a halt to a five-game losing streak, but with a unit that ranks 23rd in offensive efficiency and 25th in defensive efficiency, this season will likely turn into a lost cause.
New Orleans Pelicans (20-33 SU, 22-31 ATS): Alvin Gentry’s first season as head coach in New Orleans got off to a horrific start (4-15), but the Pelicans have since settled down a bit and started playing semi-respectable basketball (16-18 over last 34 games). Power forward Anthony Davis (23.4 points, 10.1 rebounds) is an All-Star for the third consecutive year, but guard Tyreke Evans was lost for the season after undergoing right knee surgery.
The bottom line here is the discrepancy when it comes to playing this team’s totals. In essence, consider the Over when New Orleans plays at home (19-7) and the Under when the Pelicans hit the road (20-6-1).
Minnesota Timberwolves (17-37 SU, 24-29-1 ATS): The Timberwolves are still a long way from respectability, but rookie Karl-Anthony Towns (17.1 points, 10.1 rebounds) and second-year shooting guard Andrew Wiggins (20.8 points) form a highly productive nucleus that could lead to big things down the road if Minnesota can clean up the turnovers (14.8 per game, 20th in NBA) and play a little defense (104.1 points per game surrendered, 23rd in NBA).
Fading the Timberwolves when they play at home has been the move through the first half of the season, as Minnesota is just 9-18-1 ATS at Target Center through 28 contests.
Brooklyn Nets (14-40 SU, 26-27-1 ATS): Mikhail Prokhorov’s franchise is tanking, but unlike the Philadelphia 76ers, the Nets have no idea what they’re doing. Head coach Lionel Hollins was fired in January while general manager Billy King was “reassigned,” proving this organization has no viable plan in place for the foreseeable future.
The Nets have dropped 17 of their last 21 games and rank 28th in both offensive (99.3) and defensive efficiency (106.7). Seriously, move along. There’s nothing to see here.
Phoenix Suns (14-40 SU, 21-33 ATS): The Suns are making a run at Sacramento for the title of “NBA’s Most Dysfunctional Franchise,” and took a big step forward Wednesday night when power forward Markieff Morris and shooting guard Archie Goodwin went after each other during a timeout barely halfway through the first quarter.
Head coach Jeff Hornacek has already been fired and the club has lost nine straight and 15 of their last 16 overall, so the only thing bettors should be thinking at the moment as it pertains to the Phoenix Suns is how to properly fade this team. Here’s the answer: bet against them on the road, where the Suns are currently 7-19 ATS.
Los Angeles Lakers (11-44 SU, 26-29 ATS): It’s Kobe Bryant’s last hurrah, so nothing else really matters at the moment when it comes to the Los Angeles Lakers. The Under tends to hit at Staples Center (15-9), so that’s one angle you may want to consider when second half play resumes next week.
Philadelphia 76ers (8-45 SU, 25-27-1 ATS): The never-ending tank job masquerading as a professional sports franchise known as the Philadelphia 76ers continues to disgrace the good game of basketball.
Somehow this organization magically found a way to only lose by three points to the defending champion Golden State Warriors back on January 30. Unfortunately, consistently fading the Sixers won’t be enough to turn a profit, but note that the Over is 16-10 in Philadelphia’s 26 home games this season.
