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Yonkers: Sunday 11/30 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 35 - 120 / $206.30; BEST BETS: 6 - 10 / $23.40

BEST BET: RED ROCK (8th)

SPOT PLAY: NOT AFRAID (1st)


Race 1

(7) NOT AFRAID comes off a very good second at the Meadowlands behind a sharp foe. One thing we have seen is that outside horses aren’t afraid to leave for position in these added distance races, and this guy figures to fall in line. (2) FORTUNISTA only needs to leave around the rail horse to sit a good two- or three-hole trip and place herself in position at a price. (11) DANCEHALL MISTRESS won the Open last time; only needs smooth sailing from the second tier. (4) BLOODSTOCKSHALL TAB comes out of the same race as the top choice and had a bad trip that day; had form prior.

Race 2

(6) SEVRUGA was used to the front and held up at the 1 1/4 distance better than I expected. Millionaire trotter has a bit more class than some and a lot more than others in this field. (5) TRAVERSE SEELSTER looks like the other key horse to tab. He ships in with fine form and was facing better when last seen at Yonkers. (2) DEWYCOLORINTHELINE was also facing better last time at the Hilltop and caught a good field at the Meadowlands most recently; chance. (11) HOORAYFORVACATION clearly has the form to compete; needs racing luck.

Race 3

(6) CELEBRITY BLUECHIP had a rough year with only three starts this summer and not much t show for it. Now this classy veteran finds himself back in the Ron Burke barn where he won in this class last December. Return qualifier says all systems are go. (3) HERE COMES NUMBERS & (4) BASTILLE are a pair of speedy geldings who figure to make their presences felt for a big portion of the race and might just hang on. (2) A PENNY EARNED drops back down and is worth consideration.

Race 4

(4) TAC’S DELIGHT is a horse that should relish the added distance from a barn that has been doing well in these Sunday morning events. (1) MURMUR HANOVER ships down from Canada for the suspended Corey Johnson’s substitute. It might be worthwhile to check how her stick races on Saturday. (5) SEAGRAM gets his nose on the gate this time and may just decide to show early speed. (2) CREAMPUFF MACDADDY seems to fit with this company but hasn’t been finishing off his races well; mixed feelings.

Race 5

(5) MISSY GOLDFIRE got a month off to rest and qualified back nicely. The last time those tactics were used she went down the road at Pocono paying $20. (8) HOT TYPE has clear ability, but she drew worst and is a 3-year-old facing older foes. (9) TAMASIN HALL is certainly comfortable at this level, but she’ll have to hope the horse in front of her doesn’t break this week. (10) LONG STORY SHORT is a nice fit in these longer races.

Race 6

(3) ROADWAY figures to get an easy lead and work out the right trip. (1) ABOMINABLE SNOWPAN hasn’t been great lately, but this questionable field and the inside draw will help. (8) ONE MORE LAUGH is a double millionaire making ends-meat as a bottom feeder. If he makes the front, watch out!

Race 7

(1) REAL NICE took a nice tour of the Meadowlands last week against tougher and now returns to the half against a field of recent losers. Former classy 9-year-old almost has to win this race on memory. (3) BETTORSLUCKYSTREAK gets a better post to work with this time. (4) PACIFIC DESPERADO & (5) COLONIAL ROAD are both dropping down a notch.

Race 8

(1) RED ROCK draws best for a high percentage barn. Four-year-old has won 11 of 31 races this year. (2) SHADY CITY has been stuck with outside posts; should stay closer this week. (5) GRANTOR HANOVER doesn’t jump off the page but can compete with a reasonable trip.

Race 9

(1) POPPIES PRIDE gets some much needed post relief and should be sitting no worse than the pocket Sunday afternoon. (3) CALL JESSICA LE was a solid second when last here at this level. (6) VILLAGE JESSICA stormed down the road two start back in this condition, but he she had the rail that day.

Race 10

(7) WESTERN VICTORY arrives for a barn that has done well here with limited starters AND TOP DRIVER Bartlett gets the assignment. (1) GALLANT SEELSTER has some legitimate excuses for his recent failures. (5) ALL FIRED UP was okay in his first start for this barn; can show more.

Race 11

(1) HOKURI HANDRAIL N steps up off a string of losses because he cleared the earnings cap in the condition. This spot really isn’t much tougher and drawing the pole position should help. (4) MACH WHEEL ships in sharp for a top barn. (2) U BELONG TO ME wouldn’t shock me if the trip worked out.

Race 12

(2) ANEGADA only needs to follow (1) BAD NIGHT MARE away from the gate to sit a great trip and pull off the upset. The latter has plenty of early speed but doesn’t always go the distance. (3) BETTOR BUSINESS moves up a level but should still be in her comfort zone. (6) JADED DREAM looks like a player if she decides to show up with a good effort.
 
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SPOT PLAYS

For Sunday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (4th) Dickinson, 5-1
(5th) Coalition, 4-1


Churchill Downs (1st) King Ptolemy, 4-1
(9th) Double Ours, 3-1


Del Mar (2nd) Forest Chatter, 7-2
(5th) Yes Yes Yes, 7-2


Fair Grounds (2nd) Bare Your Heart, 9-2
(9th) Jason's Arrowhead, 4-1


Golden Gate Fields (3rd) Canela Special, 3-1
(4th) Sheza Trip, 3-1


Gulfstream Park West (1st) Becky's Kitten, 6-1
(6th) Little Baker, 8-1


Mountaineer (2nd) Colonial Legacy, 8-1
(8th) Johnny Joe, 7-2


Parx Racing (1st) Angel Clarence O, 4-1
(8th) Glickman, 3-1


Turf Paradise (3rd) Cinderella Brite, 9-2
(6th) Our Silver Rocket, 5-1


Woodbine (3rd) Jersey Jules, 8-1
(9th) Bear's Pearl, 6-1
 
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Jeff Saad of Las Vegas Sports Services

Sunday NFL Free Pick: Broncos/Chiefs Over the total

Denver rebounded with a 39-36 home triumph over Miami last Sunday, scoring 22 consecutive points in the fourth quarter as Peyton Manning sandwiched two of his four touchdown passes around a scoring run by C.J. Anderson to erase a 28-17 deficit. The over is 38-17-2 in the Broncos last 57 vs. a team with a winning record, while the over is 5-2 in the Chiefs last 7 vs. the AFC West.
 
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Mr. Vegas

Mr. Vegas Free Sunday NBA pick 11/30: 3:35 PM ET

(805) GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS VS (806) DETROIT PISTONS

Take: UNDER

Golden State is considered one of the faster paced teams in the NBA. If you look at NBA pace, the league average is 92.5. That means that the average NBA team has 92.5 possessions per 48 minutes of play. The Warriors average 97.8 overall and even better 98.6 on the road. More possessions equals more shots equals more points and thus likely overs. Not exactly. The Warriors are one of the better scoring teams with a 109.8 offensive efficiency and the 3rd best scoring team in the NBA. So why are they just 7-8 O/U this season? Well, the reason is quite simple, they are a good defensive efficient team. They have a 98.3 rating, that's well below the league average of 107.2. That means they keep other teams from being efficient with their shots per game. And, when you match that against a slower paced team, then you have a recipe for a club that has fewer good scoring chances. Just the equation we get here on Sunday with the slow paced (88.9) Pistons. The Pistons are also a poor offensive efficient team (101.1) so that even makes this UNDER better. I'm a numbers man and the numbers tell me UNDER here on Sunday.
 
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Jim Feist

Comp NBA Pick for Sunday, November 30, 2014: 3:05 PM ET

(803) CHICAGO BULLS VS (804) BROOKLYN NETS

Take: over

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Sunday, November 30, 2014 is in the NBA scheduled contest between the Chicago Bulls and Brooklyn Nets. These are not just the strictly defensive Bulls of years past. These Bulls can score points. Chicago has scored back-to-back 109 point efforts against Denver and Boston. The Bad news is that without that stingy defense they lose games like they did to Denver, 114-109. The Bulls are 10-6 S/U on the season and 6-10 ATS. Meanwhile, the Nets started the season as a very high scoring team with six of their first seven games scoring over 100 points. Since then, the Nets have scored over 100 points just one time in seven games. That might be why the club is 1-6 O/U their last seven. Still, lots to like about the OVER here on Monday. The Nets are 6-2 O/U in their last eight games and 9-3 O/U their last 12 games following a straight up win. And, against the East, they are 7-3 O/U their last 10 games. The Bulls can score this year and the Nets are a good over club at home. I'm taking OVER here on Sunday.
 
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Jack Jones

Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Denver Broncos -1

The Denver Broncos (8-3) were 13-point favorites at home the first time these teams got together this season. When you factor in three points for home-field advantage, that means they should be roughly 7-point road favorites over the Chiefs in the rematch. Instead, they are currently 1-point favorites in Kansas City. That’s why I believe there is a ton of value in backing the Broncos as such small favorites in the rematch Sunday night.

Plus, the Broncos are the better team, period. When you compare the numbers, it’s really not even close. The Broncos lead the league in yardage differential, outgaining teams by a whopping 100.2 yards per game. They rank 3rd in total offense at 416.3 yards per game, and 6th in total defense at 316.1 yards per game. Despite not having the best record in the NFL, they have put up the best numbers, and I would argue that they are the best team.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, have been very fortunate to own a 7-4 record this season. They rank just 17th in yardage differential, and they are actually getting outgained on the season. The Chiefs are just 23rd in the NFL in total offense at 326.6 yards per game, and 8th in total defense at 328.3 yards per game. Now, they are without star safety Eric Berry for the rest of the season after he was diagnosed with cancer last week. Berry is just another player on a long list of injuries for this Kansas City defense.

The reason I don’t give the Chiefs much of a chance in this game is because they don’t have the firepower to keep up with Peyton Manning and company. Alex Smith is a limited quarterback with limited weapons, and would need to play a perfect game to give Kansas City a chance. Smith STILL hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass to a wide receiver all season. This offense is too predictable as it relies too much on tight ends and running backs in the passing game.

Denver is 5-0 in its last five meetings with Kansas City with all five victories coming by a touchdown or more. That’s another reason why I believe this line should be closer to a touchdown. The Broncos are 26-14 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons. The Broncos are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Denver is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 vs. AFC West opponents. The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Kansas City. Bet the Broncos Sunday.
 

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