Sunday 11/29/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Buffalo at Kansas City

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 29, 2015
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri


The Kansas City Chiefs have come back from the dead, and they’ll try to improve their standing in the playoff picture when they host the Buffalo Bills on Sunday in a matchup of AFC wild-card hopefuls. The Bills also are part of a four-way tie for that final playoff spot but are coming off a 20-13 loss at New England on Monday night.



The Chiefs are aiming for a fifth consecutive victory since falling to 1-5 and losing star running back Jamaal Charles to a season-ending knee injury. They’ve played their way back into position for the final wild card and are coming off back-to-back road wins over division rivals, including a dominant performance in a 33-3 victory at San Diego last week. “I’m proud of the guys for the character they have,” Kansas City coach Andy Reid told reporters. “Very easily could have gone the other way. … They played their hearts out, and they’ll continue to do that because that’s the way they’re wired.” The Chiefs also have a favorable schedule down the stretch, with the Bills representing their only opponent with a record of .500 or better.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Chiefs -6. O/U: 41.5



ABOUT THE BILLS (5-5): Buffalo has been solid at stopping the run, which bodes well against a fairly conservative Chiefs offense, and the defense typically keeps the team in games as long as the offense doesn’t implode. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor has been effective in three games since returning from injury, completing 64 percent of his passes for 572 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. LeSean McCoy also has gotten going with two straight 100-yard rushing performances before being limited to 82 and a touchdown against the Patriots.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (5-5): Kansas City’s defense has been dominant during the winning streak and has not allowed more than 339 total yards in the last six games, holding the past three opponents under 300. The Chiefs also have been opportunistic, forcing at least one turnover in six straight contests with a total of 15 takeaways over that stretch. The ground game has been surprisingly effective despite losing Charles, as Charcandrick West (373 yards, three TDs) has excelled since taking over the starting role while rookie Spencer Ware rushed for 96 yards and two touchdowns last week.



EXTRA POINTS

1. McCoy needs 98 yards from scrimmage to reach 10,000 in his career and has topped 100 in four straight games.

2. Kansas City has gone a franchise-record four straight contests without committing a turnover.

3. Chiefs QB Alex Smith has thrown a franchise-record 253 consecutive passes without an interception dating to Week 3, the longest streak in the NFL this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Oakland at Tennessee

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 29, 2015
Where: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee

The Oakland Raiders attempt to halt their three-game losing streak when they visit the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. Oakland has not been victorious since trouncing the New York Jets on Nov. 1, falling to Pittsburgh, Minnesota and Detroit during a stretch that has put a serious dent in its hope to end a 12-year playoff drought.

The Raiders have struggled offensively of late, totaling 27 points in their last two contests after scoring at least 34 in each of their previous three games. Coming off its bye week, Tennessee is seeking its first home victory since Oct. 12, 2014. The Titans dropped to 0-5 at Nissan Stadium this season when they suffered their 10th consecutive loss in their own building on Nov. 15, a 27-10 setback to Carolina. Tennessee fell to 1-2 under interim coach Mike Mularkey when it came out on the wrong end of a 19-13 decision at Jacksonville on Nov. 19.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Raiders -1. O/U: 44

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (4-6): Oakland's offense produced very little against the Lions last week, gaining a season-low 214 yards. Derek Carr was held without a touchdown pass for the first time since the 2015 opener, ending his run of four straight games with at least two scoring tosses. Rookie Amari Cooper had just one reception after making at least four catches in each of his first nine NFL contests while Latavius Murray rushed for a season-worst 28 yards despite scoring the team's lone touchdown.

ABOUT THE TITANS (2-8): Marcus Mariota has thrown 13 touchdown passes this season, a team rookie record, but none over his last two games. Running back Dexter McCluster will not play against Oakland due to a knee injury, but wide receiver Kendall Wright is expected to return after missing three contests with a similar ailment. Tennessee ranks last in the AFC in scoring, averaging 18.2 points per game and totaling 23 in its last two games.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Carr's next 300-yard passing performance will make him the third quarterback in franchise history to record at least six in a season, joining Rich Gannon (10 in 2002) and Carson Palmer (six in 2012).

2. The Titans have won three straight meetings with the Raiders.

3. Oakland S Charles Woodson is one interception away from passing Ken Riley (65) for fifth place on the all-time list.

PREDICTION: Raiders 33, Titans 17

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: San Diego at Jacksonville

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 29, 2015
Where: EverBank Field, Jacksonville, Florida

The Jacksonville Jaguars attempt to match their longest winning streak since 2007 when they host the struggling San Diego Chargers on Sunday. Jacksonville looks to post a third consecutive victory for the sixth time since capturing four in a row from Sept. 16-Oct. 14, 2007, during a season in which it last qualified for the playoffs.

The Jaguars edged the Ravens in Baltimore on Nov. 15 and topped Tennessee at home four days later before heading into their bye week. San Diego hopes to avoid its longest slide since dropping nine straight to end the 2001 season. The Chargers lost five in a row prior to their bye week and returned with a lackluster effort in a 33-3 home loss to Kansas City in Week 11. San Diego likes its chances of ending the skid, as it has won each of the last four meetings with Jacksonville.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Jaguars -4. O/U: 46.5

ABOUT THE CHARGERS (2-8): Philip Rivers threw for a season-low 178 yards against the Chiefs after recording a team-record five straight 300-yard performances. Two members of the Chargers are counting on Rivers in order to reach milestones. Wide receiver Malcom Floyd is two touchdown catches away from tying John Jefferson (36) for ninth place in club history while tight end Antonio Gates needs one TD reception to pass Hall-of-Famer Steve Largent (101) for 19th on the all-time list.

ABOUT THE JAGUARS (4-6): Jacksonville has played its way back into the race in the AFC South, as it sits only one game behind both Indianapolis and Houston for the division lead. Blake Bortles has thrown at least two touchdown passes in five of his last six games and has connected with wide receiver Allen Hurns for a score in seven of the last eight contests. Cornerback Aaron Colvin leads all NFL defensive backs with four sacks.

EXTRA POINTS

1. The Chargers are 0-4 on the road this year and have lost five straight away from home dating to last season.

2. Jacksonville has not won three straight at home since the 2010 campaign.

3. Jaguars LB Telvin Smith is tied for second in the league with 97 tackles.

PREDICTION: Jaguars 24, Chargers 21

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Miami at N.Y. Jets

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 29, 2015
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey

Losses in four of its last five games have put the New York Jets' postseason hopes in peril. The Jets look to right the ship when they host the Miami Dolphins on Sunday in a crucial AFC East battle among wild-card contenders.

New York got a career high 166 yards rushing from Chris Ivory in winning against Miami 27-14 earlier in the season. Since then, however, New York is just 2-4 and may be without cornerback Darrelle Revis and center Nick Mangold in the must-win contest. Miami has also watched its playoff hopes all but disappear. After the firing of coach Joe Philbin seemed to turn the Dolphins' season around with two straight wins, Miami has lost three of its last four games and it appears the Dolphins will miss the playoffs for the seventh straight season.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Jets 3.5. O/U: 42.5.

ABOUT THE JETS (5-5): Mangold, a key to the Jets' rushing attack, has been in and out of the lineup for several weeks while battling different injuries and suffered a severe cut on his hand last week. Revis sustained a concussion in last week's loss at Houston after the aging cornerback was burned for a long touchdown by DeAndre Hopkins. The Jets gave quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick a vote of confidence during the week despite throwing four interceptions in the past two weeks, both losses in games that New York was favored.

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (4-6): Miami's recent slide seems to have ended the chances that interim coach Dan Campbell will be back next year. The Dolphins have gotten strong play from Ndamukong Suh recently but still rank 26th in the league in total defense - the same as their inconsistent offense. Ryan Tannehill had two touchdown passes last week to give him 17 for the season. Running back Lamar Miller gained just 87 yards on the ground in the past two games, including last week's 24-14 home loss to Dallas, but he still leads the team with 565 yards rushing and five touchdowns.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Jets WRs Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker each have seven touchdown receptions.

2. The first meeting of the season was played at London.

3. Dolphins DE Cameron Wake, lost for the season two weeks ago, leads the team with seven sacks.

PREDICTION: Jets 24, Dolphins 21

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Arizona at San Francisco

When: 4:05 PM ET, Sunday, November 29, 2015
Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California

The Arizona Cardinals have a clear path to the NFC West title and go for their fifth consecutive victory when they visit the division-rival San Francisco 49ers on Sunday. Owners of the league's highest-scoring offense with an average of 33.6 points per game, the high-powered Cardinals manhandled the 49ers 47-7 in Week 3.

Coach Bruce Arians has raised expectations in the desert, showing little satisfaction after Arizona eked out a 34-31 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday night. “It’s kind of sounding like a broken record, but I really didn’t like the way we played,” Arians told reporters. San Francisco coach Jim Tomsula faces an entirely different set of challenges with a roster that's been depleted because of retirements, free agency and injuries. The 49ers split two games since Tomsula benched Colin Kaepernick and installed Blaine Gabbert as the starting quarterback.

TV: 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Cardinals -10.5. O/U: 44.5

ABOUT THE CARDINALS (8-2): Arizona collapsed down the stretch a year ago when Carson Palmer suffered a season-ending knee injury, but the veteran signal-caller is at the top of his game, throwing for a league-high 27 touchdown passes, including 11 over the past three games. Larry Fitzgerald has been the biggest beneficiary of a healthy Palmer, leading a deep and talented receiving corps with 73 catches and seven touchdowns. Running back Chris Johnson is in a mini-slump but had 110 yards and two TDs in the earlier meeting - a game in which Arizona had four interceptions.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (3-7): The Week 3 matchup was akin to a first-round KO after Arizona picked off Colin Kaepernick twice and returned each for a touchdown within the first six minutes to ignite the rout. Gabbert has yet to play with leading rusher Carlos Hyde, who has been out since Oct. 22 with a stress fracture in his foot and did not practice again Wednesday. Top receiver Anquan Boldin returned from a two-game injury absence and had five catches for 93 yards, but San Francisco must plug holes in a defense that permitted 209 rushing yards to Seattle rookie Thomas Rawls last week.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Fitzgerald needs 74 receiving yards to reach 1,000 for the seventh time in his career and first since 2011.

2. 49ers LB NaVorro Bowman has an NFC-leading 97 tackles.

3. The Cardinals are the only team to rank among the league's top five on offense and defense.

PREDICTION: Cardinals 27, 49ers 16

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Pittsburgh at Seattle

When: 4:25 PM ET, Sunday, November 29, 2015
Where: CenturyLink Field, Seattle, Washington

The Seattle Seahawks have a chance to beat an opponent with a winning record for the first time this season when they host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday in a matchup of teams jockeying for playoff position. The reigning two-time NFC champion Seahawks are 5-5 despite holding a lead in the fourth quarter of every game this season.

The Steelers are in better shape in the AFC and still have a shot to catch Cincinnati in the NFC North, trailing by two games with six to play. "We're in the thick of things," Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin said. "We're not where we want to be. It could be better. It could be worse." Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has been dealing with a mid-foot sprain but said the bye week helped to alleviate the swelling. The teams have met only once since the Steelers defeated Seattle in Super Bowl XL.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Seahawks -3.5. O/U: 45.5

ABOUT THE STEELERS (6-4): After being held to 23 points in back-to-back defeats to Kansas City and Cincinnati, Pittsburgh erupted for 68 points in consecutive wins over Oakland and Cleveland prior to its bye. Wide receiver Antonio Brown, who led the league in yards (1,698) and catches (129) in 2014, has 27 catches for 423 yards and two touchdowns in the past two games while fellow wideout Martavis Bryant had six receptions for 178 yards and a TD in a 30-9 win over Cleveland on Nov. 15. The Steelers' defense ranks fifth in the league in points (19.1) and rushing yards (93.0) allowed.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (5-5): Running back Marshawn Lynch underwent surgery Wednesday to repair a sports hernia and is expected to miss a month, but Seattle has an able replacement in rookie Thomas Rawls, a Lynch clone who rolled up 209 yards rushing in last week's 29-13 win over San Francisco. Quarterback Russell Wilson has had an up-and-down season but is coming off his best game, throwing for three touchdowns last week, including a pair to rookie wideout Tyler Lockett. Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril have 6.5 sacks apiece for a defense that ranks second in yards allowed (303.6).

EXTRA POINTS

1. Pittsburgh is 3-0 against the NFC West this season.

2. Wilson is 6-0 at home against AFC opponents.

3. Bryant has 13 touchdown catches in 15 career games for the Steelers.

PREDICTION: Seahawks 23, Steelers 20

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: New England at Denver

When: 8:30 PM ET, Sunday, November 29, 2015
Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado

Peyton Manning will be reduced to a spectator's role as the New England Patriots continue their pursuit of a perfect season when they visit the Denver Broncos on Sunday night in a showdown among AFC division leaders. Manning will sit out his second straight game due to a foot injury for the Broncos, who trail New England by two games for the conference's best record.

"I mean, there’s nobody that has more respect for Peyton than me outside of probably his parents and his brothers," Patriots quarterback Tom Brady said. “He’s been a tremendous player. It’s unfortunate." New England remained unbeaten despite being held to a season-low point total in Monday night's 20-13 win over division rival Buffalo. Brock Osweiler made his first career start last week and helped Denver halt a two-game losing streak with a 17-15 victory over Chicago. Osweiler was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Week after completing 20 of 27 passes for 250 yards, two touchdowns and zero turnovers.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC. LINE: Patriots -3. O/U: 43.5

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (10-0): Brady started showing the effects of losing leading receiver Julian Edelman and running back Dion Lewis, completing a season-low 51.3 percent of his passes and failing to throw for multiple touchdowns for the first time. Wide receivers Danny Amendola and Aaron Dobson were hurt in the win and are not expected to play, which could force New England to lean on running back LeGarrette Blount against a defense yielding a league-low 190.6 yards passing. The Patriots are allowing a league-best 18.2 points and are second in the league with 32 sacks.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (8-2): With starting wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders sidelined, Osweiler made good use of his tight end tandem of Vernon Davis and Owen Daniels, who combined for 10 receptions and 137 yards. Star wideout Demaryius Thomas caught only his second scoring pass of the season, ending a six-game drought, while Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson gave the sagging running game a lift with a combined 161 yards. Denver's defense not only leads the league with 34 sacks, it also is surrendering the fewest total yards (284.3) and has scored four touchdowns.

EXTRA POINTS

1. The Patriots can clinch the AFC East title with a win and a loss by the Jets - or losses by both the Jets and Bills.

2. Sanders, who has 46 catches and four touchdowns, is expected to return to the starting lineup.

3. Brady needs three touchdown passes to tie Dan Marino (420) for third place on the all-time list.

PREDICTION: Broncos 23, Patriots 20

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL TRENDS

Sunday, November 29

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NEW ORLEANS (4 - 6) at HOUSTON (5 - 5) - 11/29/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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MINNESOTA (7 - 3) at ATLANTA (6 - 4) - 11/29/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
MINNESOTA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
MINNESOTA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
MINNESOTA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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ST LOUIS (4 - 6) at CINCINNATI (8 - 2) - 11/29/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 147-185 ATS (-56.5 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 147-185 ATS (-56.5 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 114-147 ATS (-47.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 23-44 ATS (-25.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games this season.
CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
CINCINNATI is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CINCINNATI is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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TAMPA BAY (5 - 5) at INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 5) - 11/29/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 59-34 ATS (+21.6 Units) in November games since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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NY GIANTS (5 - 5) at WASHINGTON (4 - 6) - 11/29/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 33-59 ATS (-31.9 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 31-54 ATS (-28.4 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 77-106 ATS (-39.6 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 77-106 ATS (-39.6 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 77-106 ATS (-39.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 5-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 5-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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OAKLAND (4 - 6) at TENNESSEE (2 - 8) - 11/29/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 38-75 ATS (-44.5 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 34-73 ATS (-46.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 18-40 ATS (-26.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 1-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 1-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
0 of 0 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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BUFFALO (5 - 5) at KANSAS CITY (5 - 5) - 11/29/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 2-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 2-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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MIAMI (4 - 6) at NY JETS (5 - 5) - 11/29/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 4-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 3-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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SAN DIEGO (2 - 8) at JACKSONVILLE (4 - 6) - 11/29/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 88-63 ATS (+18.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 24-3 ATS (+20.7 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 2-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 2-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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ARIZONA (8 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (3 - 7) - 11/29/2015, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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PITTSBURGH (6 - 4) at SEATTLE (5 - 5) - 11/29/2015, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 72-50 ATS (+17.0 Units) as an underdog since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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NEW ENGLAND (10 - 0) at DENVER (8 - 2) - 11/29/2015, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 51-32 ATS (+15.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 219-178 ATS (+23.2 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 219-178 ATS (+23.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 170-129 ATS (+28.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 107-77 ATS (+22.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 75-49 ATS (+21.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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Monday, November 30

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BALTIMORE (3 - 7) at CLEVELAND (2 - 8) - 11/30/2015, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games this season.
BALTIMORE is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
BALTIMORE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) against conference opponents this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 3-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-2 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL TRENDS

Sunday, November 29

See more trends!
NOVEMBER 29, 1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. ATLANTA
Minnesota is 5-16-1 SU in its last 22 games ,on the road
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing at home against Minnesota

See more trends!
NOVEMBER 29, 1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Buffalo's last 11 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Buffalo's last 13 games on the road
Kansas City is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
Kansas City is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Buffalo

See more trends!
NOVEMBER 29, 1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. TENNESSEE
Oakland is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Tennessee
Oakland is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tennessee's last 8 games at home

See more trends!
NOVEMBER 29, 1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games on the road
San Diego is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games
Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Diego

See more trends!
NOVEMBER 29, 1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. NY JETS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing NY Jets
Miami is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Jets last 6 games when playing Miami
NY Jets are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games

See more trends!
NOVEMBER 29, 1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Tampa Bay is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Indianapolis's last 17 games

See more trends!
NOVEMBER 29, 1:00 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. CINCINNATI
St. Louis is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games
Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Cincinnati is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games

See more trends!
NOVEMBER 29, 1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. HOUSTON
New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
New Orleans is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games

See more trends!
NOVEMBER 29, 1:00 PM
NY GIANTS vs. WASHINGTON
NY Giants are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing Washington
NY Giants are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Washington is 2-7 SU in their last 9 games when playing at home against NY Giants

See more trends!
NOVEMBER 29, 4:05 PM
ARIZONA vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Arizona is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
San Francisco is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona

See more trends!
NOVEMBER 29, 4:25 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games
Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Seattle is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

See more trends!
NOVEMBER 29, 8:30 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. DENVER
New England is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Denver is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home
Denver is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games


Monday, November 30

See more trends!
NOVEMBER 30, 8:30 PM
BALTIMORE vs. CLEVELAND
Baltimore is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cleveland's last 10 games

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 13

Sunday - Nov, 29

New Orleans at Houston, 1:00 ET
New Orleans: 9-1 ATS on road after allowing 200 or more rushing yards last game
Houston: 46-24 OVER in games where the line is +3 to -3

Minnesota at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 11-2 ATS off a division game
Atlanta: 3-11 ATS as a favorite

St Louis at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
St Louis: 0-7 ATS in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42
Cincinnati: 15-5 ATS in home lined games

Tampa Bay at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 6-0 ATS in road games off 1 or more straight overs
Indianapolis: 74-51 UNDER in home games after playing their last game on the road

NY Giants at Washington, 1:00 ET
New York: 19-7 ATS in road games after 3 or more wins against the spread
Washington: 11-23 ATS as an underdog

Oakland at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Oakland: 21-9 ATS in road games after a loss by 6 or less points
Tennessee: 4-13 ATS in home lined games

Buffalo at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 8-1 ATS off a road loss
Kansas City: 18-33 ATS against AFC East division opponents

Miami at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Miami: 10-2 UNDER revenging a loss against opponent
New York: 2-11 ATS in home games off an upset loss as a road favorite

San Diego at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 19-7 ATS in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses
Jacksonville: 41-24 OVER in home games off a division game

Arizona at San Francisco, 4:05 ET
Arizona: 10-1 ATS off a non-conference game
San Francisco: 1-9 ATS versus division opponents

Pittsburgh at Seattle, 4:25 ET
Pittsburgh: 7-0 UNDER as an underdog
Seattle: 19-7 ATS at home after gaining 400 or more total yards in previous game

New England at Denver, 8:30 ET
New England: 6-0 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games
Denver: 15-29 ATS in home games off a non-conference game


Monday - Nov, 30

Baltimore at Cleveland, 8:30 ET
Baltimore: 0-6 ATS against conference opponents
Cleveland: 9-5 ATS off a road loss

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

Week 12

Saints (4-6) @ Houston (5-5)-- Texans allowed three TDs on 36 drives, won their last three games; they're +8 in turnovers in last five games, after being -8 in first five. Houston is tied for top in AFC South, goes back to healthy Hoyer here; they've started three QBs in their ten games. Saints fired DC Ryan during bye week; they lost last two games, allowed 43.3 ppg in last three; NO is 1-4 on road, with only win at Indy. Home side won all three series games; Saints lost 23-10 (+1.5) in only visit to Reliant in 2007. Favorites are 1-3 vs spread week after playing the Jets. NFC South non-divisional underdogs are 7-4 vs spread, 5-3 on road. AFC South home favorites are 1-4. Five of last six Saints games went over total; last three Texan games stayed under.

Vikings (7-3) @ Falcons (6-4)-- Atlanta lost four of last five games after 5-0 start, losing its last three games by total of seven points. Ryan threw awful pick-6 LW when Atlanta had a 21-14 lead with 10:07 left. Falcons lost 41-28 at Minnesota LY; Vikings ran for 241 yards without Peterson. Minnesota lost 30-10/24-14 in last two visits here; they covered eight games in row overall before losing to Packers LW; Vikings won their last three road games, scoring 27 ppg- they're 3-0 as road dogs. Falcons are 1-3 as home favorites- they trailed at halftime in seven of ten games. Favorites are 0-3-2 vs spread week after playing Indy. NFC North non-divisional road dogs are 6-3 vs spread; NFC South home favorites are 7-5. Five of last six Falcon games stayed under total.

Rams (4-6) @ Bengals (8-2)-- St Louis offense is in disarray, with injury issues on OL, so QBs are getting pummeled; they gagged away LW's game vs 3-7 Ravens, don't figure to do any better here vs Bengal squad that lost last two games after 8-0 start. Cincy is 3-1-1 as a home favorite; four of its last six games were decided by six or less points. Rams are 1-4 on road, 1-3 as road dogs, scoring 15 ppg on foreign soil. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 8-6 vs spread, 5-4 at home; NFC West road dogs are 1-5. Underdogs are 4-1 vs spread week after playing Ravens; teams are 1-8 vs spread week after playing Arizona. Seven of last nine St Louis games, three of last four Bengal games stayed under total. Rams seem to play better vs better competition, but they also seem incapable of finishing off wins.

Buccaneers (5-5) @ Colts (5-5)-- Underdogs are 10-0 vs spread in Colt games this season; Indy is 0-2 as home favorite- both their home wins are by three points. Tampa Bay won its last three games, is 5-1 vs spread in last six; they're 4-1 as road underdogs, losing by 10 at Houston, 1 at Washington. Odd stat: Indy is 3-0 when backup QB Hasselbeck starts, 2-5 with Luck. Colts are 19-34 on third down in last two games. Bucs lost three of four visits here, with win in '97- their last visit here was in '07. NFC South road underdogs are 5-3 vs spread; AFC South favorites are 1-5. Teams are 2-6 week after playing Atlanta. Over is 5-2 in last seven Tampa Bay games, 4-2 in last six Indy games. This is fourth dome game out of six road games for Tampa Bay this year.

Giants (5-5) @ Redskins (4-6)-- Washington (+3) lost 32-21 in Swamp Stadium in Week 3 Thursday game; they've won last four home games, scoring 31.3 ppg- four of their last five losses were by 11+ points. Giants are 12-3 in last 15 games vs Washington, winning five in row by average score of 27-12; they won last two visits here 24-17/45-14. Big Blue is 2-3 on road, with close losses at Dallas/NO; they're 1-4 in games decided by less than 7 points. Four of last five Redskin games, three of last four Giant games went over total. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 5-7 vs spread. Teams coming off bye are 18-10 vs spread this year, 6-4 when favored. Giants won six of last seven post-bye games, covering five of last seven as a post-bye favorite.

Raiders (4-6) @ Titans (2-8)-- Oakland is 4-1 when they have positive turnover ratio, 0-5 if they do not; they lost last three games, scoring 14-13 points last two weeks- they're 2-3 on road, 0-2 as road favorites, with wins over Browns/Chargers, who are both 2-8. Titans lost seven of last eight games; they had extra prep time after Thursday tilt in Jacksonville LW. Tennessee is 0-5 at home, scoring just 10 ppg in last four home games. Tennessee won last three series games by 4-25-4 points; Raiders lost five of six visits here, with only win in '05. AFC West non-divisional road favorites are 1-4 vs spread; AFC South home dogs are 5-2. Titans lost field position by 10+ yards in three of last four games. Over is 3-1-1 in last five Oakland games; four of last five Titan games stayed under.

Bills (5-5) @ Chiefs (5-5)-- Third week in row on road for Buffalo, which lost late Monday in Foxboro and now travels again; QB Taylor was banged-up in 4th quarter, but finished it and is expected to play here. Buffalo is 1-5 outside its division, 3-1 in true road games, with only loss Monday night. KC won/covered last four games, all by 10+ points with turnover ratio of +12, after being -2 in first six games; Chiefs are 1-2 as home favorites- this is their first home game in five weeks. Bills are 5-0 when they allow less than 20 points, 0-5 when they allow more. Chiefs won 23-13/17-13 in Buffalo last two years; home team lost five of last seven series tilts, with four of last six series totals 36 or less. AFC East non-divisional road dogs are 2-6 vs spread; AFC West home favorites are 3-5.

Dolphins (4-6) @ Jets (5-5)-- Miami lost three of last four games, Jets four of last five, but they beat Fish 27-14 (-2) in London in Week 4, last game before Miami fired its head coach. Home side lost last six series games; Dolphins won six of last seven visits here, winning last three by 21-20-3 points. Jets are +12 in turnovers in five wins, -13 in five losses. Dolphins ran ball for 180-248 yards in Campbell's first two games as interim coach, but averaged only 72.5 in last four games. Miami turned ball over only twice in last three games; they're 3-3 in true road games. Favorites are 0-3 vs spread week after playing Houston. Seven of last ten series totals were 39 or less. Three of last four Miami games stayed under total; four of last six Jet games went over.

Chargers (2-8) @ Jaguars (4-6)-- Jacksonville won three of last four games (4-0 vs spread) and is only game out of first in AFC South. Six of last seven Jax games were decided by 7 or less points. Chargers lost last six games (2-4 vs spread); they got crushed 33-3 at home LW. In last eight games, Bolts started one drive in enemy territory, its opponents started 15. SD is 0-4 on road, 2-2 as road dogs, with only road loss by more than seven points. San Diego won last four series games, all by 18+ points; they won last two visits here 38-14/24-6- last visit here was in 2013. AFC West non-divisional road dogs are 6-5 vs spread; AFC South home favorites are 1-4. Jaguars' only TD drive last week was five years. Four of the last six Charger games stayed under total; four of last six Jax games went over.

Cardinals (8-2) @ 49ers (3-7)-- Redbirds (-6.5) crushed SF 47-7 in Week 3, scoring pair of defensive TDs, picking Kaepernick off four times (+3) in their third win in last 13 games vs 49ers. Arizona lost last six visits here, with five losses by 12+ points. Cardinals won last four games overall; they're 4-1 on road, with three wins by 14+ points- in both their losses, Arizona was -3 in turnovers. Niners lost three of last four games, losing by 17-21-16; they are 3-2 SU at home (dog in all five)- they've allowed 15.2 ppg at home, 35.2 ppg on foreign soil. Redbirds scored 34-39-34 points in last three games, despite having -2/-2/-1 TO ratios in those games. 49ers scored total of 39 points in last four games (three TDs on 44 drives); three of the four games stayed under. Eight of ten Arizona games went over total.

Steelers (6-4) @ Seahawks (5-5)-- Roethlisberger has been in NFL 12 years; this is his first game in Seattle. Pittsburgh shut Seattle out 24-0/21-0 in last two meetings; they beat 'em in Super Bowl meeting before that, so Seahawks have triple-revenge on their side. Steelers are 0-4 in last four visits here; their only win in seven trips to Seattle was in '83. Steelers won last two games, scoring 38-30 points; they're 2-2 on road. 1-1-1 as road dogs, losing by 7 in Foxboro, 10 in KC. Seattle won three of last four games, but two wins were over SF, third over Romo-less Dallas. Seahawks are 2-3 as home favorites, with both covers against a #2 QB. Pitt won six of last seven post-bye games; NFL-wide, teams off a bye are 18-10 vs spread this year, 11-5 as underdogs.

Patriots (10-0) @ Broncos (8-2)-- Long travel, short week for Patriots after 20-13 win over Buffalo Monday night. NE scored 32.8 ppg in its four road wins (1-2 as road faves); they have injury issues on OL and now WR Amendola is hurt, leaving them thin at WR. Denver won Osweiler's first career start in Chicago LW; Broncos are 3-1 at home, allowing average of 18 ppg- they ran ball for 170 yards last week, after averaging 52 ypg in previous couple games. Home side won nine of last 11 series tilts; Patriots lost four of last five visits here, with three losses by 8+ points. Five of last six series totals were 52+. Last four NE games stayed under total. Denver defense allowed only two TDs in last six red zone trips. AFC West home favorites are 4-6 vs spread; AFC East road dogs are 3-0.

Ravens (3-7) @ Browns (2-8)-- Since coming back to NFL in '99, Cleveland is 4-0 against spread as a post-bye favorite, but lost three of last four post-bye games overall. McCown is back at QB for Cleveland; Davis backs him up after Manziel threw for 372 yards in loss at Pittsburgh before the bye, but then went off wagon in Texas during bye week. Flacco is out for year (knee) so Schaub (46-44 as NFL starter, last start in '13) gets first Ravens start- all ten Baltimore games have been decided by 8 or less points. Baltimore also lost Forsett in last game; they're 1-4 on road and were favored in three of five games. Under is 3-1 in last four games for both sides. Cleveland lost last five games, scoring 11.3 ppg in last four after tough OT loss at home to then-undefeated Denver.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 12


St. Louis @ Cincinnati

Game 255-256
November 29, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
St. Louis
128.206
Cincinnati
140.305
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 12
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 8 1/2
42
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(-8 1/2); Under

Tampa Bay @ Indianapolis

Game 257-258
November 29, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
135.381
Indianapolis
133.837
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 1 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 3
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+3); Over

NY Giants @ Washington

Game 259-260
November 29, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
130.043
Washington
131.596
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 1 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Giants
by 3
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+3); Over

Oakland @ Tennessee

Game 261-262
November 29, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
130.617
Tennessee
126.709
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 4
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
by 1 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(-1 1/2); Under

Buffalo @ Kansas City

Game 263-264
November 29, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
133.441
Kansas City
146.908
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 13 1/2
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 5 1/2
42
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-5 1/2); Under

Miami @ NY Jets

Game 265-266
November 29, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
125.337
NY Jets
131.547
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Jets
by 6
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Jets
by 3 1/2
42
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
(-3 1/2); Over

San Diego @ Jacksonville

Game 267-268
November 29, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Diego
123.311
Jacksonville
124.509
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 1
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Jacksonville
by 4
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(+4); Over

Arizona @ San Francisco

Game 269-270
November 29, 2015 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
134.308
San Francisco
127.584
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 7
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 10 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+10 1/2); Over

Pittsburgh @ Seattle

Game 271-272
November 29, 2015 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
136.125
Seattle
137.180
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 1
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 4
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(+4); Over

New Orleans @ Houston

Game 251-252
November 29, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
135.402
Houston
134.414
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 1
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 3
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(+3); Over

New England @ Denver

Game 273-274
November 29, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
143.234
Denver
136.240
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 7
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-3); Under

Minnesota @ Atlanta

Game 253-254
November 29, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
132.572
Atlanta
130.794
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 1 1/2
46
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(+1 1/2); Under


Baltimore @ Cleveland

Game 275-276
November 30, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
125.348
Cleveland
129.895
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 4 1/2
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 2 1/2
41 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(-2 1/2); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Public Fades - Week 12

Heading into Thanksgiving weekend, 23 of 32 teams in the NFL own records of 5-5 or worse with limited elite squads at the top of the food chain. Cincinnati belonged to that elite club two weeks ago with a perfect 8-0 record prior to back-to-back losses to Houston and Arizona, but the Bengals are still in control of the AFC North. Meanwhile, the Giants are atop the NFC East in spite of a 5-5 mark, as the Eagles and Redskins are one game behind and the Cowboys are ready to make a charge with Tony Romo back under center.

The Bengals and Giants are two of the biggest teams that the public will be backing on Sunday, as Cincinnati hosts struggling St. Louis while New York goes for the season sweep of Washington. We’ll take a look at why you should back the underdogs in this week’s edition of "Public Fades."

Rams at Bengals (-9, 42)

Three weeks ago, St. Louis (4-6 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) was in the mix for a Wild Card spot in the NFC at 4-3. The Rams lost in overtime to the Vikings and have spiraled out of control ever since by dropping games to the Bears and Ravens the past weeks. To make matters worse, controversy surrounded the Rams as Case Keenum left last week’s setback at Baltimore with concussion-like symptoms even though the team wasn’t made aware of his injury. The Rams’ offense has been poor regardless of who’s at quarterback, scoring 18 points or less in all six losses, while reaching the end zone once in each of the past three defeats.

Cincinnati (8-2 SU, 8-1-1 ATS) leads the AFC North in spite of losses the last two weeks, as the Bengals dropped a 34-31 decision at Arizona last Sunday night as four-point road underdogs. The Bengals will battle it out with the Broncos for the second seed in the AFC playoffs behind the Patriots over the next month, as Cincinnati had allowed a total of 30 points in the previous three games prior to the Arizona game. Marvin Lewis’ team has won 17 of the past 21 regular season games at Paul Brown Stadium, while posting a 4-0-1 ATS and 3-1-1 SU record against NFC foes at home since 2013.

So why back the Rams?

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson says in spite of St. Louis’ recent struggles, this could be a look-ahead spot for the Bengals, “A Cincinnati squad that is reeling with back-to-back losses will face a tough matchup coming off a marquee Sunday night game with the offense showing a decline in the past month, scoring just over 22 points per game in the last four games after scoring over 30 points per game in the 6-0 start. Cincinnati has division games the next two weeks and with a comfortable two-game lead plus the tiebreaker in the division standings this is a game the team may not be quite as focused for.”

For all the problems the Rams have experienced of late, Nelson believes St. Louis is worth a strong look, “St. Louis is just 1-4 on the road but the one win came at Arizona and the Rams also played Green Bay and Minnesota very tough in narrow road defeats. Only twice in five home dates have the Bengals won by more than five points and this will be a steep spread for Cincinnati, with the Bengals on a 5-12-2 ATS run as a favorite of seven or more points going back to 2007.”

Giants (-2½, 47) at Redskins

The NFC East race isn’t done yet, with New York (5-5 SU, 6-3-1 ATS) leading the pack in spite of a 2-3 record the last five games. The Giants are fresh off the bye week after a heartbreaking 24-23 loss to the Patriots at home two weeks ago on a last-second field goal. Tom Coughlin’s club has lost three of five games away from Met Life Stadium including divisional matchups at Dallas and Philadelphia. The Giants have owned the Redskins the last few seasons, winning five straight matchups, including a 32-21 home triumph back in September as three-point favorites.

Out of all the teams below .500 in the NFL, the Redskins (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS) own the best home record at 4-1. Following an opening week loss to the Dolphins, Washington has run off four consecutive home victories, capped off by a 47-14 blowout of New Orleans two weeks ago. The Redskins were chased by the undefeated Panthers last Sunday, 44-16, while being held below 21 points in all five road losses. Washington has cashed in three of four games as a home underdog this season, which includes an outright victory over division rival Philadelphia last month.

So why back the Redskins?

Nelson says the New York defense has been exposed over the past month, “While the Giants are in first place in the NFC East, they are just 5-5 and only the Saints team that Washington blew out in Week 10 has allowed more yards per game on defense as the Giants have surrendered 421 yards per game and over 25 points per game this season despite being a first place team. While any division road game is a big game and this is a big rivalry, a highly anticipated matchup with the Jets is up next for the Giants, a series that occurs only every four years in the current scheduling format despite the teams sharing the same home stadium.”

NFL expert Vince Akins ties in an angle supporting both St. Louis and Washington thanks to recent fumbling issues, “Fumbles are for the most part a random occurrence. Occasionally a player will have true fumbling issues, but for teams, the amount of fumbles throughout the year and year-over-year is mainly a subject of luck. So it stands to reason that teams that had bad fumble luck last game will regress to the mean next game. We indeed see that is the case, as teams which lost at least four fumbles last game have covered 58% of the time next game.”

Akins continues, “What is particularly amazing about this angle this week is that it is active with BOTH games featured in this article. St Louis fumbled five times last week and lost all four and it was definitely the difference in handing the Ravens a 16-13 win. Likewise, Washington fumbled five times and lost four as they were blown out in Carolina. Considering that this fumble factor has only been active twice so far this season and was active a mere two times total in the 2013 and 2014 seasons combined, this is definitely something to take advantage of while the opportunity is available.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 12

St. Louis Rams at Cincinnati Bengals (-8, 42)

Rams’ defensive starting field position vs. Bengals’ average starting field position

The Bengals have plenty of weapons on the return squad and are among the top teams in terms of starting field position, starting their offensive drives from an average of almost the 31-yard line – fourth best in the NFL this season. That’s helped kick start an offense that is fifth in points scored, with 26.6 points per outing, and seventh in total yards with 376.2 gains per game.

The Rams have given their opponents a head start this season, allowing teams to start their drives just past the 28-yard line – ranked 26th in the league. St. Louis has been able to shut the door in the red zone but can’t afford to give the Bengals any breaks, especially the way the Rams have struggled to score in recent weeks. St. Louis has put up just 44 points the past three weeks. They simply don’t have the firepower to keep pace if this turns into a shootout.

Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons (-1.5, 45.5)

Vikings’ passive defense vs. Falcons’ football follies

Turnovers have transformed the Falcons from one of the most feared teams in the NFL to a one-team blooper reel. Atlanta has fumbled the ball seven times and QB Matt Ryan has thrown six interceptions during the last five games, in which the Falcons are just 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS. Atlanta had four turnovers in a crushing loss to Indianapolis last week, but may be off the hook against the Vikings in Week 12.

Minnesota has undergone a defensive renaissance under head coach Mike Zimmer and currently ranks ninth in yards allowed and is averaging only 18.4 points against per game – third lowest in the NFL. However, the main premise of Zimmer’s schemes is to play positional defense and not risk going for the interception. That passive approach has Minnesota ranked 28th in takeaways with only six interceptions. According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune, the Vikes were 2-2 with eight takeaways out of the gate but have since going 5-1, snatching only three free footballs in that six-game span. While they’re winning with this approach, it may be taking the gun out of the hands of the Falcons before they can shoot themselves in the foot.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-6, 41.5)

Bills' penalty problems vs. Chiefs laundry-less games

The Bills have adopted Rex Ryan’s aggressive swagger, and it’s been good and bad for Buffalo. The negative is the amount of penalties the Bills have committed, entering Week 12 with 95 accepted flags – according to NFLpenalties.com. That’s totaled 852 yards, which is the most in the NFL. Now, Buffalo heads to Arrowhead – the loudest venue in the AFC – where false starts and delay of game calls can be credited to the Kansas City faithful. The Bills have 24 pre-snap penalties this year, 10 coming on false starts and four on delay of game whistles.

Not only are the Chiefs benefiting from an extreme home-field edge, but Andy Reid has his team playing very disciplined football. Kansas City boasts the seventh fewest penalties in 2015, getting flagged for only 61 infractions for a total of 536 yards against. At home, it’s been even tighter with the Chiefs committing just 21 penalties compared to 40 on the road. With the holidays on their way, Buffalo may be in the giving spirit– in terms of free yardage – but K.C. is taking the Grinch approach.

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+3, 43)

Patriots' poor protection vs. Broncos' bad-ass pass rush

So, football fans don’t get another chapter in Brady versus Manning, but for football bettors the spread wouldn’t be all that different if No. 18 was under center for the Sunday nighter. The short field-goal line doesn’t have much to do with who’s making the throws for Denver but rather the Broncos defense, which has kept this team competitive all year. The Patriots are their most daunting test, but this pass rush – which tops the NFL in sacks with 34 – could be getting New England at the right time.

Tom Brady was peppered with pressure in last Monday’s game against the Bills, get sacked only once but feeling the force of 13 hits from nine different pass rushers. The week before, the Giants were able to record three sacks on Brady and forced some errant throws thanks to their ability to hurry Mr. Bundchen. Injuries have forced the Pats to juggle their offensive line all season, hurting the cohesiveness of the pass protection. Those struggles were on display last week, when Brady lashed out at his o-line on the sideline. Penalties to the offensive line have also mounted, and no team in the league has reeked more havoc on pass protectors than the Broncos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 12 Tip Sheet

Vikings at Falcons (-1, 45½)

The NFC Wild Card race is heating up as two teams in the mix meet up at the Georgia Dome. Minnesota (7-3 SU, 8-2 ATS) had its five-game winning streak snapped in last Sunday’s 30-13 blowout home loss to Green Bay, as running back Adrian Peterson was limited to 45 yards rushing following three consecutive 100-yard performances. The Vikings have covered in all three opportunities as a road underdog this season, while Mike Zimmer’s team is 7-1 ATS in its last eight chances as an away ‘dog since last October. Minnesota ripped Atlanta last season at home as five-point underdogs, 41-28 as the Vikings amassed 558 yards of offense.

It’s been a rough go for the Falcons (6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS) since a 5-0 start, losing four of the past five games, with each defeat coming to teams currently at .500 or worse. The most recent setback was a heartbreaker as Atlanta squandered a 14-0 lead in a 24-21 loss to Indianapolis last Sunday, failing to cover as a favorite for the sixth consecutive game. The offense has suffered during this cold stretch, as Atlanta hasn’t busted the 21-point mark in the last five contests, while eclipsing the 24-point barrier in each of the first five victories. The Falcons are nearly an automatic ‘under’ at the Georgia Dome, cashing in four of five games.

Buccaneers at Colts (-3, 46½)

Six months ago, Tampa Bay (5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS) owned the top pick in the NFL Draft following a miserable 2-14 record. The Buccaneers may fall short of a playoff berth in the NFC this season, but have made plenty of strides, while winning three times away from Raymond James Stadium in five tries. The latest victory came in last Sunday’s 45-17 rout of the reeling Eagles as seven-point road underdogs, led by five touchdown passes from Jameis Winston. Tampa Bay has covered four of five times on the road this season, but has lost two of three times to AFC South competition.

Indianapolis (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS) began the season as pointspread poison, failing to cover its first four games. Since that cold start, the Colts have put together a 4-1 ATS record with all four covers coming in the underdog role. Chuck Pagano’s team has yet to cash as a favorite, posting an 0-5 ATS record, while the only two straight-up wins in this situation have come by a total of five points. Andrew Luck remains sidelined with a lacerated kidney, but veteran Matt Hasselbeck has yet to lose this season by winning all three of starts, including a 24-21 triumph at Atlanta last Sunday as 3½-point underdogs.

Bills at Chiefs (-6, 41½)

The AFC Wild Card race is tightening up with six teams owning records between 6-4 and 5-5, as two of those .500 squads meet in Kansas City. The Bills (5-5 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) had their two-game winning streak snapped at undefeated New England last Monday night in a 20-13 setback as seven-point underdogs. Buffalo suffered its first true road loss of the season in three tries as quarterback Tyrod Taylor failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time in 2015. Rex Ryan’s team has been successful in the underdog role, posting a 4-1-1 ATS record when receiving points, while going ‘under’ the total in their last three road games (excluding the Jacksonville loss in London).

Following a dreadful 1-5 start, things are looking up in Kansas City (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS) after Andy Reid’s squad won its fourth straight game last Sunday at San Diego. The Chiefs remain three games behind the Broncos in the AFC West, but Kansas City picked up consecutive road divisional victories over Denver and San Diego to reach the .500 mark for the first time since Week 2. In all four wins, the Chiefs have cashed each time, including three times in the favorite role, while laying their second-highest total of the season after giving up 10 points to the Bears in a Week 5 loss. Kansas City has beaten Buffalo each of the past two seasons on the road, but has lost three of the past four meetings with the Bills since 2008.

Dolphins at Jets (-3½, 42½)

The Dan Campbell era started with consecutive blowouts of the Titans and Texans to even Miami’s mark at 3-3. Since that mini-winning streak, the Dolphins (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS) have lost three of their past four games to fall below the .500 mark, capped off by a 24-14 setback to the Cowboys last week. Miami’s offense hasn’t helped the cause during this cold stretch, scoring 17 points or less in each of the past three losses, while getting outgained by nearly 200 yards in a Week 4 defeat in London to the Jets, 27-14.

New York (5-5 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) cashed plenty of tickets through the first five weeks, posting a 4-1 ATS record. However, Todd Bowles’ team has failed to cover in each of the past four games, while winning only one time in the past five contests, a 28-23 home victory over the Jaguars in Week 9. The Jets will be without cornerback Darrelle Revis on Sunday due to a concussion, which won’t help a defense that has allowed 22 points or more in each of the past five games (4-1 to the ‘over’).

Steelers at Seahawks (-3½, 46)

It’s unfair to say Pittsburgh (6-4 SU, 6-3-1 ATS) is running away with a Wild Card spot in the AFC, but the Steelers are in control of the first Wild Card position. Mike Tomlin’s club looks for its first three-game winning streak of the season following consecutive victories over the Raiders and Browns at home. Pittsburgh is fresh off the bye week, giving Ben Roethlisberger an extra week of rest after he relieved Landry Jones in the 30-9 blowout of Cleveland, throwing for 379 yards and three touchdowns. The Steelers have covered in three of four opportunities as a road underdog, including an outright win at San Diego in their only trip to the West Coast.

When will the two-time defending NFC champions break through? The Seahawks (5-5 SU, 3-6-1 ATS) have underachieved this season, but are in the mix for a playoff spot with six weeks left after winning three of their past four games. Seattle whipped San Francisco for the second time this season in a 29-13 rout as 14-point favorites last Sunday, but will be without running back Marshawn Lynch, who underwent sports hernia surgery. Since last season, the Seahawks have lost four of six games to AFC opponents, including a 27-24 overtime loss at Cincinnati in Week 5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Talk - Week 12

Week 11 Recap

The “Under Express” continued last week with a 9-5 record and most of the results were clear-cut winners. Including those outcomes, the ‘under’ is 17-9-2 (65%) the last two weeks.

The pendulum swung back on Thursday as a couple ‘over’ tickets connected and perhaps that’s a sign of what will occur this weekend. Excluding the holiday results, total bettors have seen the ‘over’ go 79-78-3 (50%) through 11 weeks of action.

Trending Under

The non-conference ‘under’ trend has been a very strong lean this season. The ‘under’ has produced a 31-15-1 (67%) record this season and that includes a 5-1 (83%) mark last week and the lone ‘over’ took place in the Cardinals-Bengals affair, which was helped with a big second-half.

Week 12 presents four AFC-NFC matchups for Sunday and here’s my quick handicap.

New Orleans at Houston: After winning three of four games behind its defense, New Orleans has come back to life and surrendered 49, 34 and 47 points in its last three. The club fired coordinator Rob Ryan soon after the latest beating and has all but been eliminated from the NFC playoff race at 4-6. The ‘over’ has gone 3-0 during this span and I don’t expect the identity to change. Putting up points against a rejuvenated Texans’ defense won’t be easy but Bill O’Brien’s attack should have a field day against the league’s worst defense (31.5 PPG, 424 YPG). The Saints enter this game rested and bettors should note that New Orleans has watched the ‘over’ go 8-1 after the bye since coach Sean Payton arrived.

St. Louis at Cincinnati: Low total for this game (42) and hard to imagine St. Louis (17.9 PPG) helping the cause with its offense. The Bengals have shown the ability to put up points in bunches (26.6 PPG) but their defense (18.6 PPG) is still one of the best in the league despite giving up 34 to Arizona last week. The Rams have seen the ‘under’ go 7-3 this season, which includes a 3-0 mark vs. AFC teams.

Tampa Bay at Indianapolis: Tough game to handicap for both the side and total. The Colts have gone 3-0 with Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback but all of the games were tight. Tampa Bay is playing with confidence and has looked much better offensively (26.6 PPG) on the road. Statistically, Indy is still ranked near the bottom in yards allowed (392 YPG) and they haven’t been able to keep teams out of the end zone (23.6 PPG) at home.

Pittsburgh at Seattle: The blueprint for betting Seattle this season has come down to opposing quarterbacks. Against quality gunslingers, the Seahawks have allowed 27, 27, 27 and 39 points, all four losses. Versus the weaker signal callers, they’ve given up 38 points. Most would agree that Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger fits into the first group and he’s helped the Steelers average 28.4 PPG in games that he’s started and finished.

Divisional Rematches

N.Y. Giants at Washington: The ‘over’ 45 connected in Week 3 when these teams met one another as the Giants defeated the Redskins 32-21 but 29 of those 53 points came in the fourth quarter. This week’s total is higher (47) and it makes sense based on what we’ve seen from the pair recently. Washington is on a 4-1 run the ‘over’ and New York has leaned to the high side (6-3-1) this season. The Giants are off the bye and the ‘over’ has gone 6-2 in their last eight games with rest.

Miami at N.Y. Jets: The ‘under’ has cashed in five of the last six in this series. Miami’s offense has been a mess the last four weeks (14.5 PPG), which has produced a 3-1 ‘under’ mark. However, the Jets defense has looked average and beat up recently. The unit has held an opponent under 20 points in six straight games and that’s helped the ‘over’ go 5-1.

Arizona at San Francisco: The Cardinals ripped the 49ers 47-7 in Week 3 and the ‘over’ (45½) cashed early. Bettors are loading up on Arizona to roll again this week but make a note that San Francisco has played solid defense (15.2 PPG) and that effort has led to a 4-1 ‘under’ record.

System Reboot

Two angles in play this weekend and even though the results aren’t perfect, they’ve been profitable over the past few seasons.

Road Angle - Play the ‘over’ in any game when the visitor is playing their third consecutive road game

Buffalo will head to Kansas City on Sunday and this will be its third straight game as a visitor. The total is hovering between 41 and 42 points. This angle has gone 1-1 this season and is 38-18-1 (68%) the past 11 seasons.

Thursday System – Find out who played at home the previous Thursday and play the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue.

Jacksonville just hosted Tennessee in Week 11 and now meets San Diego at home on Sunday. This angle produced a 25-6-1 mark the past two seasons but has tempered off to a 4-6 record this season.

Under the Lights

Including this past Thursday’s result in the Bears-Packers game, total bettors have seen the ‘under’ go 24-11 (69%) this season. Looking at this week’s game, you’re going to have a hard time making a case for an ‘over’ bet in Week 12.

New England at Denver: Key offensive injuries to both teams have knocked this total from 47½ to 43½ points. New England (18.2 PPG) and Denver (18.3 PPG) are both ranked first and second respectively in scoring defense and they’ll both be facing short-handed units. Brock Osweiler gets the start again for Denver and he actually looked good against Chicago (20-of-27, 250 yards, 2 TDs) but Gary Kubiak elected to establish the run (36 attempts) on the road. The ‘over’ has gone 5-1 in the last six meetings but past history can be ignored for this situation due to the aforementioned injuries.

Baltimore at Cleveland: This game has pass written all over it for both the side and the total. This could be a good night to please the partner, perhaps catch a movie, maybe put up the Christmas decorations? For those jonesing for action, the first meeting between the pair went ‘over’ (42½) as Cleveland earned a 33-30 road win over Baltimore. Prior to that result, the ‘under’ was 9-2-1 in the last 12 encounters. It’s rare to see a team get into the twenties and I doubt that happens again here but I’ll be on the sidelines and you should too.

Fearless Predictions

It was nice to get back into the black last week ($190) and that momentum carried over to the holiday ($190) this past Thursday. We’re still down on the season ($750) but for what it’s worth, I like this week’s card a lot. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Pittsburgh-Seattle 45½

Best Under: N.Y. Giants-Washington 47½

Best Team Total: Over 20½ San Diego

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over Buffalo-Kansas City 32½
Over Miami-N.Y. Jets 33½
Under New England-Denver 52½

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Money Moves

South Point sports book director Bert Osborne made a quick decision on Friday morning to move the Patriots off the key number of -3 for Sunday night's marquee game at Denver. Even though his parlay handle was weighted heavily on the Patriots, he had some respected straight bet money built up on the Broncos taking +3 so he's now offering the only Patriots -2.5 number in Las Vegas.

You might think with the South Point showing the only -2.5 in the city that large money would come running fast, but no one had touched it after four hours. It's likely not to move and what we'll soon see is the rest of the city join in at the same number. Get to the right number quick is the strategy as 95 percent of the money taken on the game will happen over the next three days. Every other book in town has the Patriots -3 EVEN. Osborne always uses flat numbers. He never moves the money on a spread.

Side note: the only game Osborne has been burned on this season moving on and off of 3 was last week with the Rams at Baltimore. '3' is the most key number in the NFL with 16 percent of all games over the past decade landing on it. The Ravens game landed 3 when the number moved off -2.5. He paid back the money that took St. Louis +3, money that showed the game balanced on overall risk. But all the early money on Baltimore at -2.5 got paid and it was a loss for the house, and not just at the South Point, but at most books across the city.

The most one-sided bet game at the South Point this week has been the Cardinals laying -10.5 at San Francisco, which has been a common theme the past few weeks for both teams. The public loves the high scoring Cardinals while also hating Blaine Gabbert and the 49ers. Osborne says he's got a 12-to-1 cash ratio on parlays with the Cardinals.

The top public parlay games of the week have been Arizona (-10.5), NY Giants (-2.5), Kansas City (-6), Tampa Bay (+3), Oakland (+1) and the Patriots (-2.5).

The Cardinals are also the most bet team on teasers. Osborne's got the most teaser liability built up on them and the Bengals, the two largest spreads remaining on the week. The rest of the games are all 6-points or less, which isn't attractive for regular teaser bettors, or at least the favored side isn't.

Osborne said the Packers (-8.5) getting beat Thursday night wiped out a lot of the teaser risk that was tied to both Arizona and Cincinnati. He also said the Bears' 17-13 win allowed them to salvage the day after getting beat up with Detroit and Carolina covering where both games went OVER the total. It was a popular four-team parlay and several six-teamers were waiting to cash with Green Bay and the OVER.

Here's a look at what the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted last Wednesday in their early Week 12 NFL numbers and where they're at as of Friday afternoon. The changes are based on rating adjustments from week 11 results as well adjusting to the market and also cash wagered.

New Orleans at Houston: HOU opened -2.5 and have been a strong -3 all week at every book.

Minnesota at Atlanta: ATL opened -3 (EV) and were reopened at -2.5 on Sunday night, but MINN money has pushed the number down to -1.5. Several books are at -1.

St. Louis at Cincinnati: CIN opened -7 and was reopened at -7.5 on Sunday night, but after showing well on Sunday night at Arizona, they were reopened Monday at -9. South Point and William Hill books are using -9 while the Westgate is at -8.5. MGM books have a city low of -8.

Tampa Bay at Indianapolis: IND opened -3.5 (EV) and its now -3 (EV).

NY Giants at Washington: Opened pick 'em and NYG is now -2.5 (-120).

Oakland at Tennessee: OAK opened -1.5 and they're now -1.

Buffalo at Kansas City: KC opened -3 and they're now -6 with BUF QB Tyrod Taylor expected to start. The game was re-opend Sunday at -3.5 and taken down before MNF game between BUF and NE. On Tuesday it was reopened at -4.5 and quickly bet to -6.5. On Thursday it was moved back to -6.

Miami at NY Jets: NYJ opened -4 and was reopened Sunday night at -4.5. They were at -3.5 until going back to -4 on Thursday, but on Friday morning they were pushed down to -3.5.

San Diego at Jacksonville: JAC opened -1.5 and they've been a steady -4 all week since reopening numbers for betting on Sunday night.

Arizona at San Francisco: AZ opened -8 and was reopened Sunday night at -9.5. The move to -10 and then -10.5 happened on Monday and the move back to -10 came Wednesday.

Pittsburgh at Seattle: SEA opened -3.5 and the number still sits there.

New England at Denver: NE opened -5.5 and the same number was used to reopen with on Sunday night. Following the MNF game, NE opened -3.5 on Tuesday and DEN money was quickly taken moving the game to -3. On Friday morning, they moved DEN to +3 (-120).

Baltimore at Cleveland: BAL opened -2.5 and is now CLEV -3 with all the news items that occurred. When they reopened the numbers Sunday night knowing Joe Flacco was out, it opened pick 'em and CLEV was bet up to -1.5 quickly. It was -2.5 on Monday and then finally -3 on Thursday. Josh McCown will start at for CLEV, which is an upgrade over Johnny Manziel, who is now third string. Matt Schaub will start for Baltimore. Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White says Flacco is worth 4 points to the rating.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

GAMBLERS DATA

Texans -3

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Sunday

GIANTS at REDSKINS 1:00 PM

Take: GIANTS -2.5

There’s always a certain amount of consternation involved when choosing to back the Giants. I don’t think there’s a team in the NFL that has snatched defeat from the jaws of victory as often as the Giants have this season. Nevertheless, they’re still the team on top in the NFC East, and even with a tough closing schedule, the Giants will be in command of the division with a win today at Washington.

Looking at the matchup on paper, with no situational analysis, the Giants are simply better than the Redskins across the board. They’ve got the better efficiency numbers on offense, on defense, and on special teams as well. They’re in possession of the better RPI data for the most part as well. Basically, the Giants do almost everything a little better than Washington does. They aren’t slam dunk wins, but the pattern can’t be disputed.

Then there’s the scheduling, and I would consider this to be somewhat vital. The Giants are off the bye week following a really tough loss to the Patriots. They’ve had plenty of time to get that difficult decision out of their system, while also healing up physically, which can be huge at this time of year.

As for Washington, they got their lunch handed to them last week at Carolina. The good news is it’s easy to put that loss in the archives and not dwell on it. The bad news is they got knocked all over the place by the Panthers and I can’t see the hosts being as fresh as the visitors here.

There’s also a nifty angle in play here for those who like a little technical support. Rested divisional road favorites are a very strong situational winner going back several seasons.

The fly in the ointment remains the Giants disturbing propensity for screwing things up at the end of the game. That has to be at least a mild concern here. But with so many variables, both from a statistical and intangible standpoint, favoring the Giants, that’s the side I have to play here. I’m on the Giants minus the small spot.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist's Bonus Play for Sunday, Nov 29, 2015 1:00 PM ET

(261) OAKLAND RAIDERS VS (262) TENNESSEE TITANS

Take: (262) TENNESSEE TITANS

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Sunday, November 29, 2015 is in the NFL scheduled contest between the Oakland Raiders and Tennessee Titans. The Oakland Raiders play their third game on the road in the last four weeks. They have to be a bit tired making the trip back across to Tennessee today. The Raiders have been competitive this year, but they seem to find ways to give games away. The defense is 27th in points allowed (25.9) and 29th overall in yards (405.2). Tennessee made a coaching change when they fired Ken Whisenhunt after their 1-6 start. Mike Mularkey took over and while they haven't had lots of wins, they have looked the much better a team since the change. Marcus Mariota looks better and better each week and has four TD's and just one INT the last three weeks. I am taking the Titans here as I believe the Raiders are just going to be beat more from the schedule makers than the Titans. Play Tennessee.