Sunday 11-25
Jaguars (3-7) @ Bills (3-7)— Jaguars lost last six games, losing last two weeks by 3-4 points; Jax led Steelers 16-0 late in 3rd quarter LW, lost with 0:05 left- they’re 1-3 in true road games, since 2012, they’re 4-4 as road favorites, 1-1 this year. Buffalo won its last three post-bye games; they are 1-3 at home this year, outscored 66-15 in last two. Bills’ offense gained 451 yards in last game in their first game with newly-acquired Barkley at QB. Jaguars beat Buffalo 10-3 at home in LY’s playoffs, which seems like long time ago now. Jags lost four of last six visits to western NY. Six of last eight Buffalo games stayed under the total. Non-contending team from Florida playing in Buffalo after Thanksgiving? No thanks.
Raiders (2-8) @ Ravens (5-5)— Rookie QB Jackson won his first NFL start LW, running ball 27 times; only one NFL player ran ball more than that LW. Baltimore lost three of its last four games (0-4 vs spread); they’re 9-13-1 vs spread in last 23 games as home favorites. Raiders snapped 5-game skid with last-minute win in Arizona last week; Oakland is 1-4 on road- they’re 3-8-1 in last dozen games as road underdogs, 2-3 this year. Raiders converted only 12 of last 42 third down plays. Ravens won five of last seven series games; Oakland lost five of last six trips here, winning 28-27 in last one, two years ago. Four of last six Raider games, six of last eight Raven games stayed under total.
49ers (2-8) @ Buccaneers (3-7)— Tampa Bay gained 500+ total yards in four of its last six games but they lose games because they turn the ball over. In their last eight games Bucs turned ball over 27 times, with only two takeaways- you can’t win that way. Bucs lost their last four games, are 2-2 at home; under Koetter, they’re 2-5-1 as home favorites. 49ers lost seven of their last eight games; they’re 0-5 on road- last two years, they’re 7-4 as road underdogs, 2-2 this year. SF is 0-5 SU/ATS in their last five post-bye games. Niners won four of last six series games; this is their first visit to Tampa in five years. Over is 8-2 in Tampa Bay games this season; under is 3-1 in 49ers’ last four games.
Giants (3-7) @ Eagles (4-6)— Giants won last two games after a 1-7 start, scoring 65 points; addition of Jamon Brown to OL has given Manning more protection to throw ball. Plus, they beat two lousy teams (49ers/Bucs). NY covered its last four road games. Philly lost five of its last seven games; Eagles lost last three home games, are 0-4 vs spread as home favorites this year, after being 5-1-1 LY. Iggles won first meeting 34-13 (-3) in Week 6; they had two TD drives shorter than 50 yards. Giants gained 401 yards but were feeble in red zone. Philly won eight of last nine series games, winning last four played here, last two by 24-19/27-24 scores. Four of last six Giant games went over total.
Browns (3-6-1) @ Bengals (5-5)— Hue Jackson is on the Cincy sidelines now as a consultant, few weeks after Browns fired him as HC. Bengals lost four of their last five games; they’re 3-2 at home this year, are 3-6 in last nine games as home favorites, 1-2 this year. 7 of Cincy’s last 9 opponents went over their team total. Cleveland lost four of its last five games; they’re 0-4 on road, with three losses by exactly three points. Browns are 9-16-1 vs spread in last 26 games as road dogs, 1-2-1 this year. Cincy won last seven series games, all by 13+ points; Browns are 1-8 in last nine visits here, losing last three, by 21-14-14 points. Last three Bengal games went over total; under is 6-4 in Cleveland games. Browns are 3-6-1 despite a +12 turnover ratio.
Patriots (7-3) @ Jets (3-7)— Since losing to Jets in 2010 playoffs, Patriots are 12-2 in last 14 games vs Gang Green, winning last four visits here, last two by 22-17/24-17 scores. New England won seven of its last eight games overall; they’re 2-3 on road this year, beating Bears by 7, Bills by 19. NE is 13-7 in its last 20 games as road favorite, 2-3 this year. Jets lost their last four games (0-4 vs spread); they’re 2-3 at home (were favored in 4 of 5), losing by 8-20-31 points. In their last four games, NY is 8-52 on third down Under Bowles, Jets are 10-5-1 as home underdogs, 0-1 this year. Patriots won three of last four post-bye games, but are 3-5-1 vs spread in last nine. Jets are 2-7 in last nine post-bye games (3-6 vs spread).
Seahawks (5-5) @ Panthers (6-4)— If playoffs started today, Carolina would be #5 seed in NFC, but if they lose here, Seahawks pass them in standings. Seattle lost two of last three games, giving up 28.3 ppg; they’re 2-3 in true road games this year, are 9-6-2 in last 17 games as road underdogs, 2-1-1 this year. Carolina lost its last two games, with no takeaways in either game (-3); Panthers are 5-0 at home this year, scoring 35.5 ppg in last four. Since 2013, 20-13-2 as home favorites, 3-1 this year. Carolina is Seattle is 8-4 in this series, whipping Carolina 40-7 at home in last meeting two years ago. Seahawks won three of last four visits here, last of which was ’15 playoff game. Under is 6-3 in last nine Seattle games;
Dolphins (5-5) @ Colts (5-5)— Tannehill is back at QB for Miami after Osweiler started last five games, going 2-3. Dolphins lost their last four road games by average score of 34-15; they’re 4-10 in last 14 games as road underdogs, 1-4 this year. Colts won their last four games after a 1-5 start; Luck hasn’t been sacked in last five games. Indy is 14-12-2 in last 28 games as home favorites, 2-2-1 this year. Colts are +8 in turnovers in their last four games, after being -3 in their first six. Indy won five of last six series games, with all six decided by 6 or fewer points; last meeting was in 2015. Miami won three of its last five visits here, last of which was five years ago. Four of Miami’s five road games stayed under; five of Indy’s last seven games went over.
Cardinals (2-8) @ Chargers (7-3)— If playoffs started today, Chargers would be #5 seed in AFC; they’re only game behind Chiefs in AFC West. Bolts won six of last seven games after screwing up clock management at end of Denver game LW. Chargers are 10-15 in last 25 games as home favorites, 1-3 this year. Arizona lost four of its las five games; they’re 1-3 on road, with all three losses by 10+ points- they won in SF. Over last 11 years, Redbirds are 33-20-4 as road dogs, 2-2 this season. Cardinals lost six of their seven visits to San Diego, with lone win in ’01. Bolts are 9-4 overall in series, losing last meeting 30-14 in desert in ’14. Last four Charger games stayed under total; over is 4-2 in last six Arizona games.
Steelers (7-2-1) @ Broncos (4-6)— Steelers won last six games (5-0-1 vs spread) after rallying from down 16-0 to pull out win in last 0:05 at Jacksonville LW. Pittsburgh is 4-0-1 on road this year; over last 11 years, they’re 20-28-2 as road favorites, 1-1-1 this year. Broncos lost six of their last eight games; they’re 2-3 at home this year, with all five games decided by 4 or fewer points. Denver is 6-3 in last nine games as home underdogs, 1-1 this year. Denver is 7-3 in last ten series games; Steelers lost their last three visits here, with two of the three playoff games, last one in ’15. Under is 4-1 in Steeler road games, 7-2 in last nine Denver games. Steelers are currently #2-seed in AFC, half-game ahead of Patriots/Texans for a first round bye in playoffs.
Packers (4-5-1) @ Vikings (5-4-1)— Green Bay is 1-3 since its bye; they’re 0-5 on road this year, with three losses by 8+ points. Packers are 6-9-1 in last 16 games as road dogs, 1-1-1 this year. Vikings lost two of last three games; they’re 3-2 at home this year. Under Zimmer, Minnesota is 21-7 as a home favorite, 3-2 this year. Minnesota is 4-1-1 in last six series games; Packers lost 17-14/23-10 in last two visits here. Teams tied 29-29 in Week 2; Packers scored one offensive TD, scoring 19 points on five red one drives- they also had a TD on a blocked punt. Vikings missed two FG’s in OT. There of last four Green Bay games, four of five Minnesota home games stayed under the total.
Monday
Titans (5-5) @ Texans (7-3)— Houston is first team since 1925 to start season 0-3, then win next seven games. Texans covered three of last four games; they’re 3-1 at home. Houston is 3-6 in its last nine games as home favorites, 1-3 this year. Tennessee QB Mariota (elbow) is a ??? mark here; Blaine Gabbert is his backup. Titans lost four of their last six games; they’re 2-3 on road. Since 2014, Titans are 81-9 as road underdogs, 1-2 this year. Home side won last five series games; Titans won first meeting 20-17 (+2.5) in Week 2, even though Texans outgained them 437-283. Titans lost their last six visits to Houston (four by 14+ points)- they lost 57-14 here LY. Four of last six Houston games stayed under the total.
