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CFL Betting Recap - Week 18
By Joe Williams

League Betting Notes

-- Favorites went 4-0 straight up in Week 18
-- Favorites/underdogs went 1-1-2 ATS in Week 18
-- Home/road teams posted a 2-2 SU record in Week 18
-- Home/road teams posted a 1-1-2 ATS record in Week 18
-- The 'Over/under' went 2-2 in Week 18

Team Betting Notes

-- Calgary (14-2) is showing no signs of taking their foot off the gas peddle, pounding Saskatchewan (9-8) by a 40-27 score. The Stampeders are 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS over the past 11 games.

-- The defending champion Roughriders have fallen on hard times, losing five in a row. They have also failed to cover in seven consecutive games.

-- Hamilton (7-9) has fallen a full game out of first place in the East Division, and into a tie with Toronto (7-9) following the Argonauts 26-24 win over the TiCats.

-- The Argos have won four of the past five, although they are 0-4 ATS over the past four games. They'll travel to Montreal (8-8) next Sunday. In two previous meetings this season, the home team is 2-0 SU/ATS.

-- Another week, another loss for Ottawa (2-14). However, they are still a respectable 4-2-1 ATS over the past seven. A better trend involving the RedBlacks is the 'under', which is 3-0 in the past three, and 8-2 over the past 10.

-- BC Lions (9-7) is trying to rescue its season in the final months. They have won back-to-back games, and travel to Edmonton (11-5) next weekend. The Lions and Esks haven't met since June 28 in Week 1, when Edmonton won 27-20 in BC.

 

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CFL Betting Notes - Week 19
By David Schwab

With just two weeks remaining in the CFL regular season, four of the six spots for this year’s Grey Cup Playoffs have been claimed and they all belong to teams in the West Division.

Montreal helped its cause to lock-up a spot in the East Division with last Friday’s 23-17 victory against Ottawa in a game that ended as a PUSH with the Alouettes favored by six points on the road. The total stayed UNDER the closing 43-point line. Friday’s other game ended with Calgary rolling over Saskatchewan 40-27 as a 10 ½-point home favorite to notch its 14th straight-up win of the year. The total in that contest went OVER the 48-point closing line.

This past Saturday’s CFL double-header started with Toronto securing a 26-24 victory against Hamilton in that huge East Division clash. The Argonauts could not cover the three points at home and the total stayed just UNDER the 51 ½-point line. Week 18 closed things out with British Columbia earning a playoff berth with a 28-23 victory over Winnipeg as a 4 ½-point road favorite. The total this time around went OVER the closing 45 ½-point line.

Sunday, Nov. 2

Toronto (7-9 SU, 6-10 ATS) at Montreal (8-8 SU, 8-7-1 ATS)

Point-spread: Montreal -2 ½
Total: 50 ½

Game Overview

Toronto’s late season push towards the playoffs has resulted in SU wins in four of its last five games, but the lone loss was a 20-12 setback to Montreal in Week 17 as a five-point home favorite. This was one of its in one lowest scoring outputs this year with a potent offensive attack that is averaging 25.8 points a game behind quarterback Ricky Ray. He leads the CFL in both total passing yards (4,386) and touchdown throws (28).

Montreal crawled out of the gate this season to a 1-7 SU start, but last week’s 23-17 win over Ottawa as a six-point road favorite extended its late-season winning streak to five games SU. The game against the RedBlacks ended as a PUSH to leave the Alouettes with a profitable 4-0-1 record ATS during their recent run. One of the main reasons for the team’s turnaround on offense has been the play of quarterback Jonathan Crompton. The offense has averaged 25.8 points a game over its last five outings with him at the helm. You also have to give a ton of credit to a defense that has held teams to an average of just 12 points a game during this run.

Betting Trends

Montreal has won 17 of the last 24 meetings SU and it has gone 16-8 ATS in this same stretch of games against Toronto. The total has stayed UNDER in six of the last seven games played in Montreal.

 

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CFL Week 19 Betting Preview and Trends
By Mike Pickett

First place in the East division standings will be on the line this Sunday afternoon as the Montreal Alouettes play host to the Toronto Argonauts to cap off the four-game slate that makes up Week 19 of the Canadian Football League season.

Toronto at Montreal

Last 10 Meetings: Montreal 5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS | OU 1-9

The Alouettes hold a one-game lead on both the Argonauts and the Tiger-Cats in the East standings as they prepare to host Toronto to wrap up the week on the CFL betting lines on Sunday afternoon. Montreal is 1-1 both SU and ATS in its two games against Toronto so far this season, both UNDER results. In fact, the OVER has only paid out once in the past 10 games between the Argonauts and the Alouettes.

 

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CFL

TORONTO (7 - 9) at MONTREAL (8 - 8) - 11/2/2014, 12:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 3 seasons.
MONTREAL is 48-78 ATS (-37.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 5-5 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 5-5 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
9 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

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CFL

Trends

TORONTO vs. MONTREAL
Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Montreal
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing on the road against Montreal
Montreal is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto
Montreal is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Toronto

 

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AAA Texas 500
By Micah Roberts

This NASCAR Sprint Cup Chase stuff is getting pretty good, filled with all the drama the series had hoped for when making changes to the format prior to the season. We've got past champions eliminated and others the ropes and a few underdogs making a case to win their first championship.

Ryan Newman was the biggest mover on the Las Vegas odds board at the Westgate Superbook where they dropped his NASCAR Sprint Cup odds to win from 30/1 last week, down to 10/1 (Bet $100 to win $1,000) heading into Sunday's AAA Texas 500 for the second of three races in the Eliminator Round.

Newman's third-place finish at Martinsville on Sunday puts him three points behind leader Jeff Gordon in the round with two races to go until the final four advance to the championship at Homestead. Because Dale Earmhardt Jr. won last week, and he's not involved in the Chase anymore, that means at least two drivers will have to advance on points.

Meanwhile, as Newman improves his odds of advancing to Homestead, pre-Chase favorites such as Brad Keselowski and Kevin Harvick put themselves into a position with poor performances at Martinsville that they're almost forced into a must-win situation over the next two weeks. Keselowski finished 31st and Harvick 33rd on half-mile track, and both their Chase odds rose from 3/1 up to 6/1. Harvick is now 30 points behind Newman.

The good news for Keselowski and Harvick is that they are at ideal tracks for both of them over the next two weeks. Harvick has never won at Texas, but he did win on its sister track at Charlotte three weeks ago, the most recent 1.5-mile track run on. He's also won at Phoenix five times, including the last two.

Keselowski doesn't have a win at either Texas or Phoenix over his career, but it's only a matter of time because he's been the best on tracks similar such as three wins on 1.5-mile tracks this season, and the the comparatives to Phoenix where's he's grabbed wins at the flat layouts of New Hampshire and Richmond.

In the second race of the last round we saw some tempers flare at Charlotte when Kenseth tried to put a headlock on Keselowski. This week we've got Harvick mad at Kenseth, Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano are ready to ignite soon and everyone seems to have a beef with Keselowski. This gauntlet the drivers have been put in is much more stressful than they imagined and it's translating well on the TV screen. What theatrics it would be if Keselowski won another elimination race like he did at Talladega two weeks ago to stay alive.

But let's not forget about the point leaders. Jeff Gordon is up by three points over Newman and only seven points better than fifth-place Denny Hamlin.

The great story would be Newman making the final round and trying to win his first Cup title, and he could make Homestead based on what we've seen this year. He's won at both Texas and Phoenix in the past, but more importantly, he's finished 15th or better on his last seven 1.5-mile tracks. He may not be in the Keselowski, Logano, Gordon or Harvick class on those tracks, but he's good enough to point well and the third-place at Martinsville gave him the luxury to just finish well the next two and have a chance.

When breaking down Texas, I feel like I've gone through this drill all season because I have. This is the 10th race on 1.5-mile track this season and everyone of them were rather predictable. The biggest surprise of all might have been Jimmie Johnson's win at Charlotte.

Five of the nine races so far have been won by Penske Racing's dynamic duo of Keselowski (Las Vegas, Kentucky, Chicago) and Logano (Texas, Kansas). Gordon (kansas), Johnson (Charlotte) and Kasey Kahne (Atlanta) represent Hendrick Motorsports, and then there is Stewart-Haas driver Kevin Harvick (Charlotte) who uses a Hendrick engine.

Despite only winning once on the 1.5s, Harvick may have been the most impressive of all leading hundreds of laps. It will be the same group battling for the win with Newman hanging close around, but not really capable enough to win (good matchup play though).

The best longshot is once again Jamie McMurray, who also uses a Hendrick Chevy engine.

Top-5 Texas Finish Prediction:

1) #4 Kevin Harvick (6/1)
2) #22 Joey Logano (7/1)
3) #24 Jeff Gordon (6/1)
4) #2 Brad Keselowski (6/1)
5) #1 Jamie McMurray (20/1)

2014 Sprint Cup Championship Odds per Westgate LVH SuperBook (Last week's Odds)

Matt Kenseth 6/1 (10/1)
Denny Hamlin 10/1 (10/1)
Brad Keselowski 6/1 (3/1)
Jeff Gordon 2/1 (5/2)
Kevin Harvick 6/1 (3/1)
Joey Logano 3/1 (9/2)
Carl Edwawrds 60/1 (40/1)
Ryan Newman 10/1 (30/1)

 

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NHL Grand Salami - November

The Grand Salami in pro hockey is decided by adding up all the goals scored in every game scheduled for that particular day. You can wager on 'over' or 'under' the Grand Salami total. The total is set by adding up all listed 'over/under' odds for each game on that particular day.

Note: The Grand Salami will have no action if any game is suspended or cancelled before the regulation time of three twenty minute periods. Also, regardless of the number of goals scored during the shoot out portion of the overtime, the final scored recorded for the game will give the winning team on more goal than its opponent based on the score at the end of regulation time.

*The majority of sportsbooks do not put out a total on the Grand Salami when there is only one game on the card. For tracking purposes, we will continue to show the 'over/under' for goals and combined goals scored on days with just one game.

Past results: NOV

NHL GRAND SALAMI

Date No. of Games Total Goals Combined Goals Scored Result

11/1 12 - - -

 

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NHL roundup: Preds' Volchenkov to have safety hearing
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

Nashville Predators defenseman Anton Volchenkov will have a phone hearing with the NHL Department of Player Safety on Sunday.

Volchenkov requested the hearing after he hit Calgary Flames forward Michael Ferland in the head with 48 seconds left in the second period of Friday's game. No penalty was called on the play. Ferland did not return.

The NHL is considering charging Volchenkov with elbow and illegal checks to the head. However, the Department of Player Safety can make adjustments to the infraction after review.


---The Minnesota Wild recalled defenseman Jonathon Blum from the Iowa Wild of the AHL Saturday.

The club also announced that it activated defenseman Christian Folin from injured reserve, placed defenseman Jared Spurgeon on injured reserve with an upper-body injury and reassigned defenseman Justin Falk to Iowa on Friday.


---The Toronto Maple Leafs recalled center Sam Carrick from the AHL's Toronto Marlies, while defenseman Stuart Percy was reassigned to the Marlies.


---The Tampa Bay Lightning sent center Cedric Paquette down to AHL Syracuse to make room for Lightning right winger Ryan Callahan's return to the lineup.

 

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NBA roundup: Westbrook has hand surgery
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

Oklahoma City Thunder point guard Russell Westbrook had successful surgery on his right hand, the team announced Saturday.

The surgery repaired a fracture in the second metacarpal of Westbrook's right hand. He will be re-evaluated in four weeks.

Westbrook exited Thursday night's 93-90 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers with 6:35 left in the second quarter and did not return.

Westbrook had X-rays taken at Staples Center and was re-evaluated Friday. He had a soft cast on his hand when he left Staples Center and did not talk with reporters.

Oklahoma City is also without star Kevin Durant, last season's league MVP who broke his right foot before the regular season began, as well as guard Reggie Jackson and forward Jeremy Lamb, both significant contributors last season.


---Atlanta Hawks power forward Adreian Payne was out for Saturday's home opener against the Indiana Pacers because of plantar fasciitis in his left foot.

Payne was also inactive for Wednesday's season opener at the Toronto Raptors. It was not announced by the team if the injury was the reason why he was not activated in that game.

The Hawks selected Payne in the first round of this year's draft. He averaged 2.6 points and 4.0 rebounds in five preseason games.


---The Cleveland Cavaliers waived guard A.J. Price. He averaged 7.2 points and 1.5 assists in 13.3 minutes over six preseason games.


---The Charlotte Hornets formally retired the No. 13 jersey of Bobby Phills on Saturday night. Phills died in an automobile accident in 2000.

On hand for the ceremony were Phills' teammates David Wesley, Elden Campbell, Baron Davis, Todd Fuller, Chucky Brown, Eddie Robinson and Dell Curry.

It is the first number in franchise history to be retired.


---Hornets guard Jeffery Taylor remains away from the team as the NBA continues to investigate his domestic assault case. Taylor pleaded guilty on Wednesday and was sentenced to 18 months' probation.

 

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Inside the Stats - Week 9
By Marc Lawrence

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

The first poll from the playoff committee was released Tuesday evening and with it the controversy starts.

While the debate continues we’ll continue to pour through the stats as we review teams’ season-to-date performances from a statistical perspective while also analyzing last week’s football games.

Keep in mind it’s important to remember that all results are ATS (Against The Spread) in games played this season through Monday, Oct. 27, unless noted otherwise.

OIL HAZARDS

Each week on the football card each we isolate favorites that have been out-gained in each of their last three games.

We call them ‘leaking oil’ favorites for reasons that are self-explanatory. Here are this week’s potential Pennzoil favorites.

NFL: There are no plays in the NFL this week.

LOOKING INSIDE THE STATS

Once again there were a handful of teams who won phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but were out-gained by 100 or more yards in their last game. Those teams playing this week include:

NFL: Arizona Cardinals

On the flip side, these are the teams playing this week who lost phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but out-gained their opponent by 100 or more yards in their last game:

NFL: Philadelphia Eagles

HOT TRENDS

From my weekly NFL column in the USA TODAY SPORTS WEEKLY, here are some of the hottest trends surrounding this week’s card from my all-knowing database:

The Arizona Cardinals are 11-1 ATS versus the NFC East.

The Cincinnati Bengals are 1-9-2 ATS versus losing opponents seeking triple revenge exact.

The Indianapolis Colts are 8-1-1 ATS versus opponents seeking double revenge-exact.

The Miami Dolphins are 2-14 ATS as home favorites between away games.

The Kansas City Chiefs are 0-9 ATS as home favorites off a home game.

STAT OF THE WEEK

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is 7-1 ATS as a home underdog in his NFL career. The only loss was to Peyton Manning in 2005.

 

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NFL line watch: Hold out for prime points on Panthers
By ART ARONSON

Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

San Diego Chargers (+1.5) at Miami Dolphins

It’s time for the Chargers to fish or cut bait. They’ve had the bye week to figure out things after division losses to the Chiefs (close) and Broncos (not so close), and now they need a win to stay relevant in the AFC West.

A San Diego win coupled with a Denver loss in New England makes it a race again in the AFC West, but first the Chargers need to take care of business in South Beach. The teams are ranked pretty close in both offense and defense, but the extra planning time and an advantage at quarterback gives the Chargers an edge. San Diego already has two road covers and should make it a third. This spread opened San Diego +2.5 and has already gone down a point. If you're feeling super charged, now is the time to bet the Bolts.

Total to watch

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (55)

The Patriots have had some success against Peyton Manning in the past by disguising coverages, and last year in the regular season New England just let Denver run the ball. Bill Belichick would just love a taffy pull in this one, and when the game is in Foxboro, Belichick usually gets what he wants.

It’s the biggest game of the year in the AFC (again) and the league probably doesn’t want a flagfest. That might give New England corners Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner license to be physical. Under players will probably be cashing winning tickets after this one.

 

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Where the action is: Biggest midweek NFL Week 9 line moves
By JASON LOGAN - WRITER

NFL Week 9 odds have been on the board since late Sunday and have already seen some significant jumps, with wiseguys quickly getting down on those spreads.

We talk with Scott Kaminsky about the most significant adjustments to this week’s NFL lines and where he sees those spread ending up by kickoff Sunday.

San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins – Open: -2.5, Move: -1, Move: -2

Early action hit the Chargers and moved this line as many as 1.5 points before coming back to Dolphins -2 by midweek. Most books are dealing this between -1.5 and -2 as of Wednesday afternoon. Miami has won back-to-back games and hosts a San Diego team making a cross-country trip to South Beach.

“I don’t think it has the impact nowadays,” Kaminsky says of the Bolts’ West-to-East trek. “What with the ease of travel and all the comforts they have. There used to be a theory of West teams having the edge coming East for late games, but I don’t buy into those things.”

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals – Open: -13, Move: -11

The Bengals have fallen out of favor with NFL bettors after a hot start to the season. Cincinnati opened 3-0 SU and ATS and have since posted a 1-2-1 SU mark and covered just once in that span. Bettors played against the Bengals versus Baltimore last week, which ended up being a big positive for the books with Cincy winning 27-24 as a 2.5-point home underdog. Wiseguys, however, have been partial to Jacksonville all season, covering in two of the last three weeks.

“We opened Cincinnati -13 and pop, pop, pop on the dog,” says Kaminsky. “The Bengals looked great to start the year. I even thought they were the real deal. Then they went in the tank. That win over Baltimore last Sunday was a big decision for us.”

Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings – Open: OTB

This spread has yet to see the light of day with books waiting on the Redskins’ QB plans. Robert Griffin III could return under center but with the inspiring performance of third-stringer Colt McCoy against Dallas Monday, there may be no rush to test RG3’s tender ankle.

According to oddsmakers, Washington would be a +1.5 underdog with Griffin in and a +3 pup with McCoy taking snaps Sunday. Kaminsky, however, doesn’t agree with the spread difference between those two players.

“I think +1.5 is too low,” he says. “I think if (Griffin) plays, it should be Redskins +2. If he doesn’t, and they go with McCoy, it should be Redskins +3.”

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys – Open: OTB

Another spread on hold is the line for Sunday’s showdown between the Cardinals and Cowboys in Dallas. The Cowboys are being very vague when it comes to Tony Romo’s back injury with contradicting reports floating around on the QB’s status.

According to Kaminsky, the line would be Dallas -4 with Romo active and a pick’em if Dallas has to go with backup Brandon Weeden. Despite that swing in possible lines, Romo’s value to the spread isn’t what it used to be.

“I think it’s diminished,” Kaminsky says of Romo’s impact on the odds. “With the way the offensive line is playing and the way DeMarco Murray is running, it’s not what it used to be.”

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots – Open: +3.5, Move: +3

While this line move isn’t the biggest on the Week 9 board, a significant amount of money has come in on New England as a rare underdog at home. According to Covers Expert Marc Lawrence, Tom Brady is 7-1 ATS as a home dog in his NFL career. The only loss was to Peyton Manning in 2005.

“We took quite a bit of money on New England already,” says Kaminsky. “We opened Denver -3.5 (-105) and now we’re at Denver -3 (-115). I can’t see it going much further than that, though. The Patriot look good now, but I don’t know how you stop (Peyton) Manning. There aren’t any defense right now that can stop him.”

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers – Open: -2, Move: +1

This classic AFC North battle is always entertaining and gets the big stage on Sunday night. Pittsburgh opened as a slight favorite at home after a dominating performance over the Colts in Week 8. Regardless, bettors are backing the Ravens and have forced books to jump the fence on this spread, making Baltimore road chalk.

“It’s all Baltimore money. And it’s a bit surprising to me,” admits Kaminsky. “I’m not a big fan of Pittsburgh but they’ve had two good wins over Indianapolis and over Houston on Monday night. Baltimore is the better team right now and I guess you have to give them that respect.”

 

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Separating the Super Bowl contenders from the pretenders
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

The midway point of the 2014 NFL season serves as the perfect opportunity for us to check in and re-evaluate the contenders and pretenders as it pertains to the race for a spot in February’s Super Bowl.

Remember, not all records are created equal, as some 5-3 teams look a hell of a lot better than other 5-3 teams. That means it’s essential for us to evaluate both what has already happened along with the upcoming schedules to determine which franchises fall into the “contender” category and which are simply posing as “pretenders.”

CONTENDERS

Cincinnati Bengals (20/1 to win Super Bowl XLIX)

Cincinnati stopped the bleeding caused by a disastrous three-game stretch that saw the Bengals go 0-2-1 while surrendering the alarming average of 35.6 points per game with a 27-24 win over division-rival Baltimore in Week 8.

Credit the loss of wide receiver A.J. Green (toe) and a tricky scheduling spot at New England in Week 5 for the downfall. But before you even think about throwing in the towel on Marvin Lewis and company, take note that the Bengals have an upcoming five-game stretch that features back-to-back home dates against Jacksonville and Cleveland followed by a three-game road run at New Orleans, Houston and Tampa Bay.

It’s not a stretch to think the Bengals could emerge 4-1 from that block of matchups, putting the team at 8-3-1 overall entering Week 14. Remember, the Bengals are 3-1 ATS at home this season and 14-5-1 ATS at home since 2012.

Indianapolis Colts (14/1)

A 54-31 loss at Pittsburgh in Week 8, that saw the Indianapolis defense surrender 522 passing yards to Ben Roethlisberger, has caused some concern as to whether or not the Colts are prepared to make a serious run at the AFC crown.

But the bottom line is that with a quarterback like Andrew Luck under center, who is on pace to throw for 5,462 yards this season (would rank third all-time), and a soft division in the AFC South that features doormats Jacksonville and Tennessee and the rebuilding Houston Texans, Indy should cruise into the postseason.

The Colts are 3-1 at home in 2014 while outscoring the competition by an average of 13.75 points per game and, after playing the Giants in New York on Monday night and then taking a much-deserved bye the following week, Indy returns to host New England, Jacksonville and Washington before a Week 14 road date with the Browns. If this team can nail down the second seed in the AFC playoffs, expect to see them playing in the conference championship game.

San Diego Chargers (25/1)

They’ve lost two straight and have to travel across the country for a 1 p.m. ET road date with the Miami Dolphins Sunday, but there’s absolutely no way football fans and bettors alike should be counting this team out.

The Bolts will go on a much-needed bye in Week 10 before returning for back-to-back home games with the Oakland Raiders and St. Louis Rams, which could serve as the impetus for yet another late-season charge into the playoffs.

Winning the AFC West is likely out of the question, but San Diego has demonstrated under head coach Mike McCoy in the past that they are more than capable of turning the tables on heavy favorites when playing on the road.

PRETENDERS

New Orleans Saints (20/1)

Don’t be fooled by what you saw Sunday night in a home primetime game against a hobbled Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. The Saints still have a plethora of problems highlighted by a defense that ranks 28th in the league in yardage surrendered (390.4 ypg) and 26th in points allowed (26.9 ppg).

We also have to consider the fact that this squad is 0-4 on the road in 2014 and 5-7 SU and 2-10 ATS away from the Superdome since 2013. Perhaps the Saints grind their way into the playoffs thanks to highly-suspect NFC South opposition, but this team’s best days are behind them.

Detroit Lions (20/1)

It took a Chernobyl-like meltdown from the Saints in Week 7 and a delay of game penalty in Week 8 against Atlanta for the Lions to enter the bye week at 6-2 instead of 4-4.

This team is dealing with an overwhelming amount of injuries, has a starting quarterback who is completing just 61.2 percent of his passes (23rd in NFL) with eight turnovers, and a schedule that features road dates at Arizona (Week 11) and New England (Week 12) on the horizon.

And don’t forget that Detroit’s two losses this season took place on the road against the 3-4-1 Carolina Panthers and at home against the Buffalo Bills. Head coach Jim Caldwell has this team moving in the right direction, but the Lions aren’t nearly as good as their record currently indicates.

Pittsburgh Steelers (30/1)

Back-to-back victories, the second of which came by way of a 54-31 throttling of the Indianapolis Colts Sunday, have Mike Tomlin’s Steelers at 5-3 and very much in the thick of it.

However, this is still an offense coordinated by Kansas City castoff Todd Haley and a defense that is surrendering an average of 24.5 points per game (21st in NFL). Pittsburgh’s five wins have come against teams with a combined record of 17-21-1 while the organizations’ three defeats were delivered courtesy of Baltimore, Cleveland and the dreadful Tampa Bay Buccaneers. There are still a lot of question marks here.

 

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Trends to Watch - November
By Marc Lawrence

The trick-or-treaters are stockpiled for another year and turkeys are running for cover. That can only mean one thing… the NFL in November is here.

Before you make a move on the pro football games this month it would serve you well to gush over some of the good, bad and downright ugly trends outlined below of NFL teams during the month of November dating back to 1990. Because, the Sir Winston Churchill so wisely once put it, “The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.”

HOME TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): Carolina has been able to collect the cash in Charlotte this time of year with a 29-17 ATS record and they will have one chance to do so against Atlanta (11/16).

Too bad for Denver they will be on the road four times this month because they are 37-22 ATS at home and will only have Miami visit on the 23rd of the month.

Bad: St. Louis will have two chances to improve on horrific 15-35 ATS mark and one will be a huge task and the other not as much. Peyton Manning and friends arrive on Nov. 16 and two weeks later Oakland is at the nearby Arch.

Even during Super Bowl seasons, the New York Giants floundered in New Jersey with a 15-30 ATS record and will have a trio of opportunities to either improve or do worse against Indianapolis (11/3), San Francisco (11/16) and Dallas (11/23).

Keep an eye on (Bad): To the surprise of nobody, Oakland is a pathetic 15-29 ATS at home and does not figure to improve in division games with Denver (11/9) and a Thursday nighter with Kansas City.

Indianapolis (19-31 ATS) and Washington (18-29 ATS) also are poor at home, but at least the Colts can improve facing the Redskins at the end of the month.

AWAY TEAMS

Good: Aside from last year, Houston has been a dependable road team in November at 16-8 ATS, but with three home games and bye, the Texans will have to only travel to Cleveland in the middle of the month.

Keep an eye on (Good): With Chicago’s woes, curious to how they react in division games with Green Bay (11/9) and in Detroit on Thanksgiving with their 33-18 ATS record.

Cincinnati has been a solid traveler at 26-16 ATS, but will be severely tested with three in a row beginning the third week of the month, heading to New Orleans, Houston and Tampa Bay in succession.

Keep an eye on (Bad): This is annually when Detroit’s season turns as cold as Lake Michigan and they will have to visit Arizona and New England with a 15-27 spread record.

FAVORITES

Keep an eye on (Good): Dallas has been a great story all season and they have been quite good handing out digits at 40-24 ATS in November. As long as Tony Romo is playing, the Cowboys will be favored in every game this month.

Bad: The Washington Redskins began to turn their season around in late October. Historically they have not been very good as favorites this month at 12-27 ATS. They might be the people’s choice on Nov. 2 at Minnesota and certainly will be handing out points two weeks later when Tampa Bay is in town.

Keep an eye on (Bad): By the end of the month, St. Louis will have faced a stretch of seven games versus teams who could well be in the playoffs this year. On the last Sunday of the month, they finally catch a break facing Oakland, but they are 14-25 ATS as November chalk.

It will be up to the Kansas City Chiefs to lift the spirits of Kansas City fans after coming so close in the World Series. K.C. however is only 21-35 ATS as favorites the month after the Fall Classic. The Chiefs will be favored against the Jets at home and at Oakland on a Thursday night. But we will have to see about trip to Buffalo (11/9) and when Seattle visits a week later.

DOGS

Keep an eye on (Good): Because Tampa Bay is usually out of contention for the playoffs by now; they are normally underdogs, which have worked to the benefit of Bucs backers at 35-20 ATS. Tampa Bay will have five such roles this month.

Bad: We mentioned earlier the N.Y. Giants are a bad home team in November and are even worse when listed as underdogs at 11-28 ATS. Though the G-Men have three home games, they are against Indianapolis, San Francisco and Dallas, with a good chance they will be dogs in all. This plus a road trip to Seattle (11/9), Good Luck!

Keep an eye on (Bad): Detroit had a very good first half of the season at 6-2 and normally this is where the Lions start to taper off. As underdogs they are only 22-39 ATS and fit this role at Arizona (11/16) and at New England (11/23).

DIVISION

Keep an eye on (Good): Dallas is a solid bet here at 25-15 ATS and will be at the Giants on the 23rd and hosting Philadelphia on Thanksgiving.

Keep an eye on (Bad): The St. Louis scheduling nightmare continues with a return engagement with San Francisco on Nov. 2 at their joint and at Arizona the following week. The Rams are 17-29 ATS vs. division foes.

The Chiefs will have to go on the warpath to improve their 16-27 ATS mark against division foes. Kansas City will face Oakland and Denver at the end of the month.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Talk - Week 9
By Chris David

Week 8 Recap

For the second consecutive week, the ‘under’ produced an 8-7 record and outside of three games, all of the results could be defined as wire-to-wire winners.

The three games that changed gears all went ‘over’ their closing numbers too. Denver and San Diego had 21 combined at finished with 56. Houston and Tennessee scored 30 points in the second-half after putting up 16 in the first. Cincinnati led Baltimore 7-6 after the 1st half and wound up winning the game 27-24.

Through eight weeks of the regular season, the ‘over’ has gone 63-58.

System applies to Game of the Week

All eyes will be on Foxborough this Sunday afternoon as the Broncos and Patriots clash. This total opened up 54, moved quickly to 55 and has dropped back to 53 ½ as of Saturday. Similar to last week’s matchup between the Saints and Packers, I can’t come up with a reason to go ‘under’ in this spot unless you’re fading the betting public.

Last month, Denver and New England have both seen the ‘over’ cash in all four of their games. Offensively, the Patriots averaged 39.5 points per game during this span while the Broncos managed to average 37.3 PPG.

Can either defensive unit slow down these attacks? On paper, the Broncos (20.3 PPG) and Patriots (22.1 PPG) have both been solid but neither unit has faced guys named Manning or Brady.

Coincidentally, this big time matchup also fits the “Thursday Night Total” system that I continue to touch on each week.

For those of you reading “Total Talk” for the first time, the total angle that’s been profitable is very simple to follow. All you have to do is find out who played at home the previous Thursday and play the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue.

Since Denver hosted San Diego at home in Week 8, this matchup applies with the Broncos.

How good has the system been?

Including last week’s easy ‘over’ in the Bears-Patriots matchup, the record is 20-3-1 (87%) dating back to last season.

Keep in mind that this system won’t be in play next week since Carolina hosted New Orleans this past Thursday and the Panthers are on bye in Week 10.

Bye Bye Over

Prior to last week’s efforts by the Buccaneers (13) and Eagles (20), teams playing with rest had looked very efficient offensively this season. The ‘over’ had gone 7-2 but a pair of ‘under’ tickets dropped that record to 7-4 last week. We still have 21 teams that will be playing off the bye, which includes San Francisco and New York Giants this weekend. The 49ers and Giants are both playing at home and even if you include Tampa Bay’s 13-point dud last week, home teams with rest have averaged 26.5 points per game this season.

AFC vs. NFC

Readers following “Total Talk” last season were well aware of the ‘over’ trend in non-conference games, which finished with a 51-15 (77%) record. This season, we have nothing close to that number. Through eight weeks and 34 AFC-NFC matchups, our numbers show a stalemate at 17-17.

It’s been a good back and forth with these games and if you pick your spots, I believe value can be found. For this weekend, we have four non-conference matchups on tap.

Tampa Bay at Cleveland
Philadelphia at Houston
Oakland at Seattle
Indianapolis at N.Y. Giants

Quick Rematch

We have two divisional matchups slated for Sunday and these games also feature matchups where the team will be playing for the second time this season. We’ve already seen two rematches this season and while the sample size is small, the opposite total outcome occurred in the second go ‘round.

For those of you confused:

Steelers-Browns
Week 1 – Pittsburgh 30 Cleveland 27 (Over 41)
Week 6 – Cleveland 31 Pittsburgh 10 (Under 46.5)

Ravens-Bengals
Week 1 – Cincinnati 23 Baltimore 16 (Under 43.5)
Week 8 – Cincinnati 27 Baltimore 24 (Over 44.5)

St. Louis at San Francisco: The 49ers defeated the Rams 31-17 in Week 5 and the ‘over’ (44) cashed but this was a bad beat for ‘under’ bettors. Not only did this game get a late score before halftime but a late defensive touchdown sealed the fate for many. This week’s total is in the same neighborhood (43.5). The Rams have allowed 30-plus points in five of their seven games. San Francisco has only scored 17, 26 and 22 at home this season. The ‘over/under’ has gone 1-1 the past three regular season matchups. If you believe that trend carries over to 2014, then ‘under’ is your lean here.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh: In Week 2, the Ravens dominated the Steelers 26-6 at home and the ‘under’ (44) cashed fairly easily. For Sunday’s rematch, this number opened 44 and was quickly steamed up to 48, which is the highest total this pair has seen in 30-plus encounters. The public perception is high on the Pittsburgh offense, which has put up 30 and 51 the last two weeks. Plus, Baltimore’s offense has also been clicking lately too, averaging 33.6 PPG in its last three game. Since both clubs like to chuck the ball early and often, you almost have to throw out past history between this pair and go on current form. After watching a snoozer in September, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a shootout in November.

Under the Lights

After watching the ‘over’ go 20-4 in the first 24 games played at night this season, the ‘under’ has cashed in the last two situations, which includes this past Thursday’s result between the Saints and Panthers.

Will things continue to balance out in Week 9?

Baltimore at Pittsburgh: (See Above)

Indianapolis at N.Y. Giants: The opener of 49 ½ has been bumped up to 51. New York is off its bye and that’s meant better offense, especially at home (see above). The Colts have watched been a great ‘over’ (6-2) team this season, especially on the road (3-0). The Indianapolis defensive unit was embarrassed last week at Pittsburgh, allowing 51 points. In Week 2’s installment of TT, I mentioned that QB Andrew Luck never lost back-to-back games during the regular season. Ironically, he did that week as the Colts lost to the Eagles (27-30). The one constant though is that Luck has helped the Colts average 25.4 PPG after a setback.

Fearless Predictions

Finally, a couple clear-cut winners and I’m happy I didn’t jinx the Thursday totals system. The Buccaneers offense kept me away from the sweep, which is certainly due! The deficit is $110 as we head into the second-half of the season! As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Baltimore-Pittsburgh 47.5
Best Under: Washington-Minnesota 43.5
Best Team Total: Over 26.5 San Francisco

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 38.5 Baltimore-Pittsburgh
Under 51 N.Y. Jets-Kansas City
Under 52.5 Jacksonville-Cincinnati

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gridiron Angles - Week 9
By Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Bengals are 15-0 ATS (10.2 ppg) since December 30, 2007 if not a road favorite of 6+ points, when on a 1 game SU and ATS winning streak.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Texans are 0-11 ATS (-13.5 ppg) in franchise history when they are off a win in which their opponent had at least four sacks and at least ten sack yards.

-- The Buccaneers are 0-9 ATS (-10.4 ppg) if they are not double digit dogs after a game where Doug Martin had at least nine rushes for less than 60 yards.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Browns are 0-9 ATS vs a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM:

-- Teams coming off a win where they allowed at least 28 points are 191-243-10 OU. Active on Pittsburgh.

NFL O/U TREND:

-- The Eagles are 11-0 OU (12.00 ppg) since Nov 26, 2006 on the road after they scored at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sharp Moves - Week 9
By Mike Rose

We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 9!

(Rotation #460) Houston +2 – The Texans are sort of in a make or break type of week. They know that they are going to be at least an average team this year, but they have to prove that they can beat a team that is above-average at some point, too. Philadelphia certainly is that team, and it is coming off of a loss in the desert to the Cardinals that will surely sting for some time to come. The Eagles haven't played nearly as well on the road as they have at home in the Chip Kelly era, and they tend to make big mistakes in games like these. It goes without saying that the Eagles have been lucky with all of their defensive and special teams touchdowns, and the sharp bettors out there are hoping that QB Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't going to be baited into too many mistakes in this game.

Opening Line: Houston +2.5
Current Line: Houston +2
Public Betting Percentage: 66% on Philadelphia

(Rotation #452) Miami -1.5 – Last week, we suggested that the Saints were the right side to play in a very similar type of a game. The Chargers are coming to the East Coast, and though they have been a bit of the exception to the rule in terms of performance, West Coast teams still tend to struggle in these 1:00 p.m. ET games, even against modest clubs like Miami. The Dolphins though, do seem to have found their stride just a bit, and they are playing like a team again after there were some rough patches in the last month or so. QB Philip Rivers has been fantastic, but the Chargers ground game has once again come to a grinding halt. If the Dolphins can slow their running game once again, the secondary is good enough to give Rivers and the Bolts fits.

Opening Line: Miami -1.5
Current Line: Miami -1.5
Public Betting Percentage: 69% on San Diego

(Rotation #474) New York +3.5 – This stat is well-advertised at this point - The Colts are 8-0 SU and ATS in games following double-digit losses throughout the Andrew Luck era. At this point though, what we're seeing is insane. The Giants are at a crossroads of their season. If they can win this game and get back to .500, there is a really good chance that they can go on a run in the games ahead and get back into the playoff picture. If they lose this game and fall to 3-5, the chances of survival are slim and none, and Head Coach Tom Coughlin will probably once again have his job up in the air. Indy isn't an unflappable team entirely, and we might see that come Monday night.

Opening Line: New York +3
Current Line: New York +3
Public Betting Percentage: 70% on Indianapolis

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sunday's Top Action

ARIZONA CARDINALS (6-1) at DALLAS COWBOYS (6-2)
Line & Total: Dallas -3, Total: 44.5

Two NFC powerhouses clash in Dallas when the Cardinals square off against the Cowboys.

Arizona QB Carson Palmer threw a 75-yard touchdown to John Brown with just 1:21 left to beat the Eagles 24-20 at home last week for its third straight win (SU and ATS). The club now faces a Dallas team that not only suffered a loss on Monday to the 9-point underdog Redskins, but may not have the services of starting QB Tony Romo, who is a game-time decision because of an injured back. The Cardinals last faced the Cowboys on Dec. 4, 2011, when they won 19-13 as home underdogs for their third straight win (SU and ATS) in this series. But this game will be played in Big D, where the Cowboys have won 12 of the past 13 games SU against Arizona.

Over the past three seasons, the Cardinals are 6-0 ATS when facing a team that’s allowing 350 or more yards per game during the second half of the season. The Cowboys, however, are 3-0 ATS when facing a team that allows less than 3.5 rushing yards per carry during that span. CB Patrick Peterson (concussion) will be questionable for the Cardinals after a big collision in Week 8, as will S Tony Jefferson (concussion). For the Cowboys, LB Rolando McClain (shoulder) and CB Brandon Carr (undisclosed) are both listed as questionable.

The Cardinals played an excellent game on Sunday, going punch for punch with a talented Philadelphia team. QB Carson Palmer (1,136 pass yards, 8 TD, 1 INT) ended up gutting out a victory after a big throw with just over a minute remaining. He’s been a completely different quarterback this season than over the course of his career. He has just one interception on the year despite having a reputation as a turnover prone signal-caller. One thing that has opened up the field for Palmer is the emergence of RB Andre Ellington (464 rush yards, 2 TD). Ellington rushed for 71 yards and a touchdown in the win over Philly and is as explosive a running back as there is in this league. He’s also an excellent receiver out of the backfield, piling up 28 catches for 274 yards and a touchdown in 2014. He’ll need to play well early against a Cowboys defense that can be tough to run against once they get their adrenaline going. WR Michael Floyd (19 rec, 353 yards, 2 TD) will look to bounce back after being held without a catch against the Eagles.

Luckily for Arizona, WR Larry Fitzgerald has re-emerged as a top option. He caught seven passes for 160 yards and a touchdown last game and should be able to produce against this Dallas defense. Speedy WR John Brown (22 rec, 316 yards, 4 TD) is also a valuable field stretcher. Arizona’s defensive front has been outstanding this season, allowing just 77.9 rushing yards per game (3rd in NFL). The Cardinals have also done a great job with forcing turnovers, piling up 13 takeaways in the past six games, including three last week.

The Cowboys had a golden opportunity to start the season 7-1, but they were unable to beat the Colt McCoy-led Redskins. QB Tony Romo (1,998 pass yards, 15 TD, 6 INT) was injured late in the game against Washington when he took a hit to his back, but backup QB Brandon Weeden did a nice job replacing him for a stretch, going 4-of-6 for 69 yards (11.5 YPA) and 1 TD while leading his team to 10 points on two drives. But the strength of this team remains the running of RB DeMarco Murray (1,054 rush yards, 5.1 YPC, 7 TD), who has rushed for over 100 yards in every single game this season. It will be interesting to see him face this relentless Arizona defense. He’s coming off a game in which he rushed for 141 yards and caught four passes for 80 yards, so it’s possible that there’s some wear-and-tear on the Cowboys’ superstar. He's also lost five fumbles already this year.

Whoever is under center will be targeting WR Dez Bryant (48 rec, 620 yards, 5 TD) often. Bryant was held to just three catches for 30 yards against Washington, but he did catch a touchdown pass in the red zone. If Arizona is without top CB Patrick Peterson, Bryant could be in for one of his biggest performances of the season. One good sign in the loss to Washington is that TE Jason Witten (28 rec, 336 yards, 2 TD) caught five passes for 70 yards and a touchdown. If he can get himself going the second half of the year, this team could be even better than it has been offensively.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (5-2) at HOUSTON TEXANS (4-4)
Line & Total: Philadelphia -2, Total: 48.5

The Texans look to get back above .500 with a home victory over the Eagles on Sunday.

Philadelphia took a late lead in Arizona last week but was unable to hold it, as it fell 24-20 to the Cardinals. Houston got back to .500 with a convincing 30-16 win over the Titans. The Texans have not beaten the Eagles in three meetings since entering the league in 2002. Philly is 2-1 ATS in those victories, with the most recent win-and-cover coming in a 34-24 home game on Dec. 2, 2010. Houston is allowing 271.4 passing yards per game this season (28th in NFL) and it could have trouble stopping QB Nick Foles and this pass-heavy Philadelphia offense. Houston is 22-10 ATS in home games after failing to cover in two out of its previous three games since entering the league. The Texans are, however, just 2-9 ATS after playing their previous game on the road over the past two years.

This Philadelphia team has covered in four of the five games that it has been favored on the season. RB Darren Sproles (knee), CB Brandon Boykin (hamstring) and S Nate Allen (hamstring) are questionable for the Eagles, while the Texans could be missing the questionable duo of LB Brian Cushing (knee) and DB Darryl Morris (ankle).

The Eagles were unable to leave Arizona with a victory on Sunday, letting up a deep touchdown pass from Carson Palmer with just over a minute remaining in the game. After throwing just two interceptions last season, QB Nick Foles (2,039 pass yards, 12 TD, 9 INT) has now thrown nine picks in just seven games. He’ll need to take better care of the football going forward, and that will begin Sunday with a meeting with J.J. Watt. The Texans star has forced two turnovers this season and is capable of knocking down any pass thrown his way, so Foles will have to avoid the 6-foot-5, 289-pound defensive end. One player who should be in for a big game is WR Jeremy Maclin (39 rec, 632 yards, 6 TD), who caught 12 passes for 187 yards and two touchdowns against the Cardinals last week. He saw a lot of time against Patrick Peterson, and it didn’t affect him the slightest bit. He’s shown that he is capable of beating his defender no matter who it is, and he should be able to do find holes against this bottom-five passing defense.

One guy who must step his game up for Philly is RB LeSean McCoy (505 rush yards, 1 TD). McCoy was considered an elite running back before the season, but he’s rushing for only 3.7 yards per carry. He could have trouble against a defensive line that can be dominant when locked in. This Eagles defense will need to be prepared for a matchup with RB Arian Foster, as they are allowing 116.7 rushing yards per game (21st in NFL), but Foster is no ordinary running back. They Eagles will need to be on top of their game on Sunday or they’ll have no chance of winning on the road.

The Texans defeated the Titans on Sunday and they are still very much alive in the playoff hunt. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (1,757 pass yards, 9 TD, 7 INT) threw for 227 yards and a touchdown in the victory over Tennessee, and he’ll need to limit his turnovers once again on Sunday. It shouldn’t be hard, however, as all he’ll need to do is hand the rock to Arian Foster (766 rush yards, 7 TD). Foster has rushed for 100 or more yards in six of the seven games that he’s played in this season. He’s also rushed for two touchdowns in three of the past four games, while also catching a touchdown in two straight contests.

In the passing game, WR DeAndre Hopkins (36 rec, 569 yards, 3 TD) has emerged as Fitzpatrick’s top receiver. He’s been targeted 20 times over the past two weeks, resulting in 11 catches and 203 yards. Hopkins is a downfield threat and he should give this Eagles’ secondary some trouble on Sunday. WR Andre Johnson (46 rec, 551 yards, 1 TD) will need to be more involved in this offense going forward. He had seven catches for 55 yards against the Titans, but Fitzpatrick will often have long spells during the game where he doesn’t even look to the superstar.

DENVER BRONCOS (6-1) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (6-2)
Line & Total: Denver -3, Total: 54.5

Two of the hottest teams in the NFL square off Sunday when the Broncos head to Foxboro for a showdown with the Patriots.

Both teams won their fourth straight game last week, as Denver QB Peyton Manning threw for 286 yards with 3 TD in a 35-21 home win-and-cover over the Chargers, while New England QB Tom Brady threw for 354 yards and 5 TD in a 51-23 blowout over the Bears. These teams last met in the AFC Championship on Jan. 19, when the Broncos won 26-16 at home as five-point favorites. Manning threw for 400 yards in that game with two touchdowns and no picks, but he is still just 5-10 SU all-time in head-to-head meetings with Brady. The Pats are 2-0 SU and ATS when hosting Denver over the past three seasons, but in this same timeframe, the Broncos are 13-3 ATS in the second half of the season and 25-11 ATS as a favorite.

Meanwhile, New England is 8-1 ATS at home where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the past three years. They’re also up against a Denver team that is 0-7 ATS after four straight double-digit wins since 1992. RB Montee Ball (groin) could return for Denver in this one, while the Patriots have no new major injuries since losing DE Chandler Jones (hip) indefinitely two weeks ago.

The Broncos have won four straight games due in large part to QB Peyton Manning (2,134 pass yards, 22 TD, 3 INT) throwing for 330 YPG and 14 touchdowns. But he now faces the Patriots, a team he’s struggled with in his career. Manning is 0-3 SU in his past three trips to New England, throwing for 297.0 yards per game with 9 TD and 4 INT. He’ll need to be more careful when throwing the ball in CB Darrelle Revis’ (2 INT) direction. RB Ronnie Hillman (349 rush yards, 2 TD) will need to be ready to play in this game. Hillman has been excellent in place of the injured Montee Ball, but pass protection will be a key factor in determining who wins this game. He must protect Manning at all costs when his coaches ask him to do so.

WRs Demaryius Thomas (47 rec, 767 yards, 6 TD) and Emmanuel Sanders (47 rec, 634 yards, 4 TD) will look to keep up their excellent play this week. Sanders is coming off of a 120-yard, 3-TD performance against the Chargers. One reason the Broncos have been so much better this season is their defense. Denver is allowing just 242.9 passing yards per game (17th in NFL), which is good for a team that is involved in as many shootouts as they are. They are also allowing an NFL-low 72.4 rushing yards per game, and have a +5 turnover margin in the past three games.

The Patriots offense has been rolling during their four-game win streak with 39.5 PPG and 428 total YPG. QB Tom Brady (2,059 yards, 18 TD, 2 INT) has played incredible football during the win streak with 317 passing YPG and 14 TD tosses. He has also dominated this Broncos team at home over the past five years, throwing for 310.0 yards per game with 10 total touchdowns and just one interception. A big part of Brady’s outstanding play during October is TE Rob Gronkowski (40 rec, 557 yards, 7 TD) returning to form. He finally looks as healthy as ever and caught nine passes for 149 yards and three touchdowns in the Patriots’ blowout win over the Bears last week. He should have success working the middle against this Broncos secondary.

WR Brandon LaFell (30 rec, 461 yards, 4 TD) has been Brady’s second favorite target, catching 11 passes for 124 yards and a touchdown against Chicago. His size and speed is everything Brady wants in an outside receiver, so it will be interesting to see if he can keep it up. This Patriots defense will have its work cut out for them against the Broncos. They’re allowing just 210.9 passing yards per game (2nd in NFL), but Peyton Manning’s offense is a whole different animal. This is a big opportunity for CB Darrelle Revis to show the world that he’s still the game’s premier shutdown corner.