Sunday 11/16/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[superbeets]

Euro Championships Su 16Nov 17:00

Belgium

v

Wales

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS5		1/4	9/2	11	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSIN BELGIUM	RECENT FORM
ND*NLHWHWADHW​ Most recent​	1 - 1 3 - 2 2 - 0 1 - 1	HDHWALAWHDHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Belgium are unbeaten in their last ten competitive home matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Wales will be delighted to have gained two wins and a draw from their first three Euro 2016 qualifiers but this is where life begins to get tough against the World Cup quarter-finalists. Wales have scored in six of their last seven competitive away games so they could find the net, but Belgium should win comfortably enough.

RECOMMENDATION: Belgium to win 3-1
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[superbeets]

Football Conference Su 16Nov 14:00

Halifax

v

Woking

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BT2		11/8	23/10	19/10	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT HALIFAX	RECENT FORM
HWADHWADHLAL​ Most recent​	3 - 4 1 - 0 3 - 0 1 - 0	AWHLHWADALHD​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Halifax have won one of their last six Conference matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Halifax are strong at home having lost just two of their last 33 league matches at the Shay, but they look a risky proposition against Woking. The visitors have won five of their nine away games this term and are full of goals, with Scott Rendell leading the scoring charts. He ended a mini-drought against Wrexham and can notch again.

RECOMMENDATION: S Rendell first goalscorer
1


REFEREE: Martin Coy STADIUM:

 

[superbeets]

Euro Championships Su 16Nov 19:45

Italy

v

Croatia

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
ITV4		5/4	11/5	11/4	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSIN ITALY	RECENT FORM
NLNLHWAWHWAW​ Most recent​	1 - 1 0 - 2 1 - 2 1 - 2	NLHWHWAWHWNL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Croatia have kept clean sheets in six of their last eight competitive matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Croatia have won their opening three games in Group H without conceding a goal and can take a stranglehold on the section by beating Italy in Milan. The Italians also have a 100 per cent record but laboured to wins at home to Azerbaijan (2-1) and away to Malta (1-0) and are a team in transition.

RECOMMENDATION: Croatia
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[BRUTUS]

RAINMAN...please...thnks

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL Grand Salami - November

The Grand Salami in pro hockey is decided by adding up all the goals scored in every game scheduled for that particular day. You can wager on 'over' or 'under' the Grand Salami total. The total is set by adding up all listed 'over/under' odds for each game on that particular day.

Note: The Grand Salami will have no action if any game is suspended or cancelled before the regulation time of three twenty minute periods. Also, regardless of the number of goals scored during the shoot out portion of the overtime, the final scored recorded for the game will give the winning team on more goal than its opponent based on the score at the end of regulation time.

*The majority of sportsbooks do not put out a total on the Grand Salami when there is only one game on the card. For tracking purposes, we will continue to show the 'over/under' for goals and combined goals scored on days with just one game.

NHL GRAND SALAMI

Date No. of Games Total Goals Combined Goals Scored Result
11/1 12 64 54 UNDER
11/2 7 36.5 39 OVER
11/3 1 5 7 OVER
11/4 12 65.5 56 UNDER
11/5 3 15.5 15 UNDER
11/6 10 54.5 56 OVER
11/7 5 26.5 26 UNDER
11/8 12 63.5 77 OVER
11/9 5 27.5 29 OVER
11/10 2 10.5 11 OVER
11/11 11 60.5 60 UNDER
11/12 2 11 18 OVER
11/13 9 49 53 OVER
11/14 6 32.5 28 UNDER
11/15 12 - - -

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL Preview: Coyotes (7-9) at Oilers (6-9)

Date: November 16, 2014 9:00 PM EDT

The Arizona Coyotes found their scoring touch in their last game, and they've had no problem finishing chances over a sustained stretch against the Edmonton Oilers.

The Pacific Division stragglers meet Sunday night in Edmonton with the Oilers trying to put an end to their streaky ways.

Arizona (7-9-1) ended a three-game losing streak with Friday's 5-0 win at Vancouver. Martin Hanzal scored the first three goals before five minutes had passed in the second period, and Shane Done and Keith Yandle completed the dominant night.

Hanzal had been held without a point during the losing streak with a minus-4 rating, and his importance hasn't been lost on the team's captain.

"Obviously, our most important player is Martin Hanzal," Doan said. "When he's rolling, we're a better team, and he got rolling tonight."

Continued power-play production could help move things along. Yandle's goal came with the advantage, and the Coyotes are 2 for 5 in their last two games after a 0-for-18 stretch. They're 2-6-0 when they go without a power-play goal and 5-3-1 with at least one.

It was also their first shutout, providing a much-needed boost for their goaltending. Devan Dubnyk made 35 saves and improved to 3-0-1 with a 2.54 goals-against average in his first start since allowing five goals on Nov. 2 in Washington.

While Dubnyk is yet to face his former team, starter Mike Smith certainly has and is 9-0-1 with a 2.46 GAA in his last 11 starts against the Oilers.

This season has been considerably more trying as Smith has gone 4-9-0 with a 3.43 GAA, including three straight losses and nine goals allowed in his last two.

Arizona hasn't suffered a regulation loss in Edmonton since Nov. 23, 2009, going 8-0-1 in that span. Overall, Arizona is 16-1-3 in the series since that loss with 3.7 goals per game. The Coyotes nearly doubled that in a 7-4 home win Oct. 15 to open the season series.

Mikkel Boedker had three goals and an assist for the Coyotes and has 10 points on a five-game streak against Edmonton.

The Oilers (6-9-2) have been especially up-and-down this season with wins and losses coming in bunches. Their scoring has followed that streaky trend lately.

Thursday's 4-3 overtime loss to Ottawa kicked off a five-game homestand with a second straight defeat, though escaping with a point was a bonus after falling behind by three in the first period for a second straight game.

"It's good that we didn't just throw in the towel and say they can just have this one," said Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who had a pair of assists. "We battled back hard (in Tuesday's 3-2 loss at Nashville) and we did the same tonight. We got a point out of this tonight. We showed some good things there for sure, but those things can't happen, we can't go out there and get down three."

The 20 first-period goals the Oilers have allowed are tied with Arizona for the most in the Western Conference.

Goalie Ben Scrivens has suffered from that with a 0-3-1 record and 3.76 GAA in his last four starts. He allowed six goals in the first meeting with Arizona and fell to 1-2-1 with a 3.16 GAA in the matchup.

Viktor Fasth has been no better against the Coyotes with a 0-1-1 mark and 3.89 GAA.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL roundup: Jackets acquire Leopold from Blues
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

The Columbus Blue Jackets acquired defenseman Jordan Leopold from the St. Louis Blues on Saturday in exchange for a 2016 fifth-round draft pick.

Leopold, 34, was originally acquired by the Blues from the Buffalo Sabres in March 2013. He had one goal and seven assists in 49 regular season games and added one assist in 12 playoff games with St. Louis.

The Blues also recalled defenseman Chris Butler from the Chicago Wolves of the AHL.

Butler, 28, leads the Wolves with nine points (one goal and eight assists in 14 games. The Blues signed him as a free agent on July 16.


---Defenseman Korbinian Holzer was recalled by the Toronto Maple Leafs from the Toronto Marlies of the AHL on an emergency basis.

Holzer, 26, has appeared in seven regular season games with the Marlies this season, collecting one assist and six penalty minutes. The native of Germany has appeared in 24 career NHL games, all with Toronto, registering three points (two goals, one assist) and 30 penalty minutes.


---The Anaheim Ducks recalled center/right winger Chris Wagner from Norfolk of the AHL.

Wagner, 23, made his NHL debut on Oct. 17 against the Minnesota Wild, going scoreless with two penalty minutes in 4:10 of ice time. He co-leads Norfolk with nine points (six goals and three assists) in eight AHL games this season.


---The Arizona Coyotes recalled forward Lucas Lessio from Portland of the AHL and assigned defenseman David Schlemko to the Pirates.

The 21-year-old Lessio has registered five goals, three assists and 14 penalty minutes in 14 games with Portland this season, and was tied for the team lead in goals.

The 27-year-old Schlemko has recorded one assist in seven games with the Coyotes.


---The Chicago Blackhawks reassigned forward Peter Regin to Rockford of the AHL. Regin, 28, has one assist in four games with Chicago since being recalled from Rockford on Nov. 6.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA roundup: Love denies interest in Lakers
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

Cleveland Cavaliers forward Kevin Love denied reports that he may opt out of his contract and join the Los Angeles Lakers next season.

The Cavaliers acquired Love from the Minnesota Timberwolves over the summer. He can opt out of his deal after this season and become a free agent.

Love, who starred collegiately at UCLA, has said in the past that he is interested in returning to Southern California at some point.

Love denied the latest reports. He could make more money by opting out but would weigh playing alongside superstar forward LeBron James and a winning Cavaliers team vs. going to a Lakers squad that is struggling and star guard Kobe Bryant is in his final years as a player.

If Love opts out, the Cavaliers can offer him a five-year deal whereas other teams can only give him four years.


---Injured Los Angeles Lakers point guard Steve Nash is not returning phone calls from coach Byron Scott and the team could trade him, according to the Los Angeles Daily News.

Nash, 40, is out for the season with nerve problems in his back. The team wants to keep Nash around as a mentor. However, Scott has not been able to keep in touch with Nash.

Scott said he is "not angry at all" that Nash has not returned his call. The team is allowing Nash to have some space in letting him decide if he wants to accept a mentoring role. He is under contract this season for $9.8 million.


---Chicago Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau said point guard Derrick Rose would not play Saturday night against the visiting Indiana Pacers because of a mild hamstring strain.

Rose was injured during the Bulls' win over the Toronto Raptors on Thursday. Rose had 20 points on 5-for-14 shooting before tweaking his hamstring with less than two minutes left in the game.

After an examination Friday, the Bulls determined it was a mild strain. No MRI was needed, and Rose is considered day-to-day.


---The Philadelphia 76ers signed free agent forward Robert Covington. He was the first overall pick in the 2014 NBA Development League Draft by Grand Rapids.

As a rookie last season, Covington played seven games for the Houston Rockets while spending most of his time with Rio Grande Valley of the D-League.

The Sixers also waived Chris Johnson.


---Atlanta Hawks forward DeMarre Carroll was out for Saturday's game against the Cleveland Cavaliers with a groin strain.

Carroll was injured during Monday's win over the New York Knicks. He missed Wednesday's game against the Utah Jazz and Friday against the Miami Heat.


---The Golden State Warriors recalled guard Justin Holiday and center Ognjen Kuzmic from the Santa Cruz Warriors of the NBA D-League.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Basketball Betting: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers November 16, 09:30 EST

When Warriors and Lakers square off at the Staples Center on Sunday what will get the attention of NBA Totals players is that Warriors are 4-0 'Under' away from Oakland this season, 13-6-1 'Under' the past twenty road games. Another telling basketball betting stats that leaps out, the Warriors have played 'Under' posted totals in 12 of the past 17 games when on a quick turnaround. Factor in a 6-3 series 'Under' last nine on L.A.'s court the arrow is clearly pointing toward taking the 'Under'

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College Basketball: Streaks, Tips, Notes -

Hampton at Syracuse Sunday November 16, 04:00 EST

Syracuse Orange look to boost their win total when they tip off against the Hampton Pirates at Carrier Dome on Sunday. Orange lost a lot of talent from last season’s team but do return Trevor Cooney (12.1 PPG) and have highly-touted freshmen Chris McCullough on board who began his collegiate career with 16 points, 11 rebounds, three steals in a easy season opening victory vs Kennesaw State (89-42). The Pirates are in way over their heads in this contest as they're on a 6-24 SU road skid in November, 3-1 ATS in the four lined games while Orange enter with 20-1 SU stretch at home in November (10-10 ATS) and 17-0 SU streak as home favorite during the month with a 9-8 ATS mark against the betting line.


Southern Methodist at Gonzaga Monday November 17, 11:00 EST

The Zags are loaded this season thanks to a strong foundation of returning players including arguably the best pair of shooters in college basketball in Kevin Pangos nailing 43% from the field, 41.2% from long range last year with Gary Bell Jr. dropping 47.6% of his shots, 42.7% from outside. Zags had an easy opener defeating Sacramento State 104-58 covering the 23 point spot. Zags face a stiffer challenge when Mustangs pay a visit Monday but will prevail as Mustangs are without second top scorer and top rebounder Markus Kennedy (12.4 ppg, 7.1 rpg). Zags are on a 13-0 SU stretch as November home favorites cashing nine tickets over the span (9-4 ATS). Southern Methodist have struggle on the road as underdogs in November posting a 1-10 SU mark last ten with a 4-7 ATS record against the betting line.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SuperContest Picks - Week 11

The Westgate SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry, and it’s all a 100% payback. Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center , which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,403 entries, which is an all-time record. The winner of this year's top prize will be given a check for $736,575, plus the top 30 finishers will collect cash prizes too.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon.

Week 11 Picks (# of Selections)

1) New England +3 (498)
2) Kansas City -1.5 (418)
3) Green Bay -6 (397)
4) Cleveland -3 (395)
5) Detroit +2.5 (380)

Week 10 Results

1) Detroit -2.5 (551) WIN
2) Green Bay -7 (443) WIN
3) New Orleans -5 (423) LOSS
4) Kansas City -2 (396) WIN
5) N.Y. Jets +5 (394) WIN

Week 9 Results

1) Arizona (+3.5) - WIN
2) San Diego (+1.5) - LOSS
3) Philadelphia (-2) - WIN
4) New England (+3) - WIN
5) Baltimore (-1) - LOSS

Week 8 Results

1) Indianapolis (-3) - LOSS
2) Kansas City (-6.5) - WIN
3) Houston (-2) - WIN
4) Baltimore (+1) - LOSS
5) New Orleans (-1.5) - WIN

Week 7 Results

1) Kansas City (+4.5) - WIN
2) Indianapolis (-3) - WIN
3) N.Y. Giants (+6.5) - LOSS
4) Seattle (-6.5) - LOSS
5) Baltimore (-6.5) - WIN

Week 6 Results

1) Miami (+3.5) - WIN
2) N.Y. Giants (+3) - LOSS
3) Buffalo (+3) - LOSS
4) San Diego (-7) - LOSS
5) Denver (-8.5) - WIN

Week 5 Results

1) Denver (-7) - WIN
2) Baltimore (+3.5) - LOSS
3) Cincinnati (-1) - LOSS
4) San Diego (-6.5) - WIN
5) Chicago (+2.5) - LOSS

Week 4 Results

1) Green Bay (-1.5) - WIN
2) Kansas City (+3.5) - WIN
3) Atlanta (-3) - LOSS
4) Philadelphia (+5.5) - WIN
5) New Orleans (-3) - LOSS

Week 3 Results

1) Washington +6.5 - WIN
2) Indianapolis -6.5 - WIN
3) N.Y. Giants +2 - WIN
4) Cincinnati -6.5 - WIN
5) Dallas -1.5 - WIN

Week 2 Results

1) New England (-3) - WIN
2) San Diego (+6) - WIN
3) Buffalo (+1) - WIN
4) San Francisco (-6.5) - LOSS
5) Detroit (+3) - LOSS

Week 1 Results

1) Tampa Bay (-2) - LOSS
2) Pittsburgh (-6.5) - LOSS
3) Tennessee (+3.5) - WIN
4) Detroit (-5.5) - WIN
5) New Orleans (-3) - LOSS


2014 SuperContest Weekly and Overall Consensus Records

Week Consensus Record Overall Record Overall Percentage
1 2-3 2-3 40%
2 3-2 5-5 50%
3 5-0 10-5 67%
4 3-2 13-7 65%
5 2-3 15-10 60%
6 2-3 17-13 57%
7 3-2 20-15 57%
8 3-2 23-17 58%
9 3-2 26-19 57%
10 4-1 30-20 60%

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gridiron Angles - Week 11
By Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Eagles are 11-0 ATS (10.5 ppg) since 1991 as a road dog after scoring 34+ points.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The 49ers are 0-11-1 ATS (-11.1 ppg) since 2003 when they are off a game in which they led by at least a TD after the first quarter, but allowed 20-plus points.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Bears are 0-8-1 ATS (-6.6 ppg) since October 28, 2012 at home after a game in which Brandon Marshall had at least 6 receptions.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Falcons are 0-8 ATS when facing a divisional opponent with the same number of wins and losses as them.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM:

-- Teams coming off a win as more than a three-point dog where they forced at least four turnovers are 105-145-4 OU. Active on Cleveland.

NFL O/U TREND:

-- The Eagles are 0-16 OU (-10.8 ppg) since December 25, 2006 when they scored more than 15 points more than expected last game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sharp Moves - Week 11
By Mike Rose

We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 11!

(Rotation #466) St. Louis +9 – This isn't really particularly shocking that the Rams are sharp. They have changed quarterbacks once again back to QB Shaun Hill, and we aren't all that sure what that is going to do to the rest of the team. What we do know is that QB Peyton Manning has a history of destroying teams like this, and in a strange twist, he might be more comfortable playing here on the road at the Edward Jones Dome than he is playing in his own stadium in the elements. However, we have already seen the Rams take down the San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks this year. Could the Broncos end up being next in line?

Opening Line: St. Louis +9.5
Current Line: St. Louis +9
Public Betting Percentage: 74% on Denver

(Rotation #474) Indianapolis -3 – What is this? A favored home team actually being sharp on Sunday Night Football? It's a rarity for sure, especially when you consider the fact that this is an Indianapolis team which has a history of being very square. That said, the "more square" team is New England in this game for sure. QB Tom Brady and the Pats have made virtually no mistakes over the course of the last month of the season, including beating the Broncos at home. That said, if you take away that one game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Indy has been pretty darn flawless, too. QB Andrew Luck should be in for another 300+ yard game against a New England secondary that just allowed 438 yards to the Broncos.

Opening Line: Indianapolis -2.5
Current Line: Indianapolis -3
Public Betting Percentage: 57% on New England

(Rotation #476) Tennessee +5.5 – This is far less of a stunner. The Titans are perceived to be a tremendously inferior team to the Steelers, and even though this game is played in Nashville, public bettors don't really seem to care. QB Ben Roethlisberger just hasn't played well on the road this year. Pittsburgh has fewer touchdowns on the road in five games than Roethlisberger had all by himself in those two games where he threw six touchdowns in each. The Titans are two weeks removed from their bye, and they are destined to get a heck of a lot better as QB Zach Mettenberger continues getting his practice time in. Keep in mind as well that Pittsburgh's linebackers and safeties are all sorts of banged up at the moment. If there is a coach who could exploit these injuries, it is Ken Whisenhunt. An upset could be in the making.

Opening Line: Tennessee +5.5
Current Line: Tennessee +5.5
Public Betting Percentage: 74% on Pittsburgh

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Inside the Stats - Week 11
By Marc Lawrence

PASS THE OIL

Each week on the football card each we isolate favorites that have been out-gained in each of their last three games.

We call them ‘leaking oil’ favorites for reasons that are self-explanatory. Here are this week’s potential Pennzoil favorites.

NFL: Carolina, Chicago and San Diego.

HOT TRENDS

From my weekly NFL column in the USA TODAY SPORTS WEEKLY, here are some of the hottest trends surrounding this week’s card from my well-intended database:

The Chicago Bears are 6-0 ATS at home off back-to-back SU losses when hosting the Minnesota Vikings.

The Cleveland Browns are 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS with a winning record in games off a double-digit victory.

The Denver Broncos are 8-0 SU and ATS away off an away game.

The New England Patriots are 7-0 ATS in its last seven away games on Sunday nights.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 9-0 SU and ATS away with revenge off a SU away loss.

The Seattle Seahawks are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games when seeking double revenge exact (from a pair of SU losses against today’s opponent).

New Orleans head coach Sean Payton is 16-1 SU and 14-3 ATS at home off a SU loss since 2008, including 10-0 SU and ATS in non-division games.

STAT OF THE WEEK

The Indianapolis Colts are 1-14 ATS as home favorites versus New England.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Line Moves - Week 11
By Matty Simo

LAS VEGAS – How bad did the Carolina Panthers look in a 45-21 road loss to the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football? So bad that The Wynn sportsbook in Las Vegas opened Carolina as a 1.5-point favorite hosting the Atlanta Falcons, who are now 1-point chalk for Sunday’s Week 11 NFC South matchup.

The betting public seems to believe the 3-6 Falcons have a better shot to challenge the 4-5 New Orleans Saints for the division title than the 3-6-1 Panthers even though two of Atlanta’s wins came against the 1-8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That just goes to show how much public perception impacts the odds, with bettors always remembering what they saw last more than the big picture and moving the lines accordingly.

While Carolina quarterback Cam Newton still managed to put up some solid fantasy football numbers at the end of the loss at Philadelphia, finishing with 306 yards and touchdowns to go along with three interceptions, he is clearly hurting right now. Newton was sacked a career-high nine times, and conflicting reports came out this week regarding whether or not he is really injured.

Johnny Avello, The Wynn’s Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, tends to side with bettors on this line move. Avello said the Falcons have more of a shot to win the NFC South despite a similar record because they have already beaten the Saints once and play an easier schedule down the stretch.

“I’ll tell you what, he’s looked awful, hasn’t he?” Avello said of Newton. “This division was kind of opened up for anybody to take it. At the beginning of the year, you looked at it and said New Orleans was going to win this division easily. It doesn’t look to me like Carolina’s going to get there. So maybe Atlanta’s going to be the team that’s going to rally and make a run at it.

“This is a huge game for them right now. This is a game that keeps them in the hunt.”

Another game that has seen the home team move down close to a Pick’em in Vegas has the Detroit Lions visiting the Arizona Cardinals in a key NFC matchup between division leaders. The NFC North-leading Lions opened as 1.5-point underdogs at The Wynn but were +1 Friday afternoon and Pick’em at some sportsbooks offshore. Of course the NFC West-leading Cardinals will be without starting QB Carson Palmer, who suffered a torn ACL in their 35-14 win over the St. Louis Rams last week.

However, Avello said he likes backup Drew Stanton taking over for Palmer after going 2-1 in his place earlier this season due to a shoulder injury. Arizona brings an NFL-best five-game winning streak and 8-1 record into this game against the Lions, who are 7-2 after earning a victory in each of their last four. The Cardinals have also covered five straight along with seven of their past eight, and they have won the previous five meetings with Detroit, going 4-1 against the spread.

“Stanton gives the team a different look, and to be honest with you, in my opinion, it’s a better look,” Avello said. “What he lacks though is experience, experience in big games. The team’s done great, they’ve covered the spread a lot this year. But they did beat a lot of weak teams in there. They finish out their season with a much tougher schedule. They’re going to be a dog possibly four times.”

Two other NFL games on Sunday figure to get a lot of action from bettors, according to Avello. Both come later in the day and feature the highest totals on the board. The first kicks off at 4:25 p.m. (ET), with the Green Bay Packers opening as 5-point home favorites against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Packers have since been bet up to -5.5, with the total surprisingly going down from an opener of 57 down to 55 as of late Friday afternoon. Keep in mind, both teams combined for 100 points last week.

“Green Bay-Philly is going to be a good betting game, one of your better betting games of the weekend, I would think,” said Avello.

But the Sunday Night Football matchup between two more division leaders figures to be the biggest game of the week. The AFC South-leading Indianapolis Colts host the AFC East-leading New England Patriots after both of them were on byes last week. The Colts opened -2.5 (-120) at The Wynn and have since moved to -3 while the total has gone from 57.5 up to 58 for the highest number in Week 11. The OVER is 9-1 in Sunday Night Football games this season, cashing the past four weeks.

“I think the Colts game is probably going to get close to 60 by the time it’s all said and done,” Avello said. “Because when the crowd comes in to bet that game on Sunday night, there’s nobody betting that game under. Let’s put it that way. I could see that total even going higher. It seems like there’s been a lot of isolated games this year that have gone over – quite a few.”

Las Vegas SuperBook - Week 11 Betting Moves

Rotation Team Open Current Move
451 TEXANS - - -
452 BROWNS 3 3 0
453 VIKINGS - - -
454 BEARS 5 3 -2
455 EAGLES - - -
456 PACKERS 5.5 5.5 0
457 SEAHAWKS 2.5 - -4.5
458 CHIEFS - 2 -
459 FALCONS - 1 -
460 PANTHERS 3 - -4
461 BENGALS - - -
462 SAINTS 6.5 7 0.5
463 BUCCANEERS - - -
464 REDSKINS 6.5 7 0.5
465 BRONCOS 9.5 9.5 0
466 RAMS - - -
467 49ERS 3 3.5 0.5
468 GIANTS - - -
469 RAIDERS - - -
470 CHARGERS 9.5 10 0.5
471 LIONS - - -
472 CARDINALS 3 1 -2
473 PATRIOTS - - -
474 COLTS 2.5 3 0.5
475 STEELERS 4 6 2
476 TITANS - - -

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Talk - Week 11
By Chris David

Week 10 Recap

Last week in the NFL was your typical roller coaster ride for total bettors. Including Thursday’s outcome between the Browns and Bengals, the ‘under’ produced a 6-2 mark in the first eight games. For arguments sake, it could’ve been 8-0 if the Jaguars don’t punch in a meaningless score against the Cowboys and the Saints-49ers game avoids overtime.

The bookmakers couldn’t have been happy with those backdoor results and they certainly could’ve been smiling with the final five games in Week 10.

The ‘over’ cashed in all five and the favorites covered the number in each game as well, which is never a good thing for the fellas on the other side of the counter. Through 10 weeks of the season, the ‘over’ has gone 77-69-1.

Streaks to Watch

I’ve learned that you should never bet against a hot streak and have been told on occasion that you should ride them until they lose. With that being said, we have nine teams with solid total streaks pending for Sunday.

The only matchup where something will have to give is the Houston-Cleveland game where pending results collide.

Broncos: OVER 6-0
Packers: OVER 6-0
Patriots: OVER 6-0
Chiefs: UNDER 5-0
Falcons: UNDER 5-0
Browns: UNDER 5-0
Texans: OVER 4-0
Buccaneers: UNDER 3-0
Giants: OVER 3-0

Broncos fit Road Angle

In last week’s Total Talk installment, I touched on a total system that has produced solid profits for bettors for past seasons and it’s very simple to follow.

Play the ‘OVER’ for any team that is playing their third consecutive game on the Road

Last Sunday, the Rams were playing their third straight game as visitors when they visited Cardinals. I thought St. Louis would be able to score and it did hold a 14-10 lead at halftime. Unfortunately the offense was jammed up in the second-half but the Arizona defense answered the bell with 14 late points. The Cardinals won 31-14 and the game went ‘over’ the closing number of 43.

Including last week’s result, this angle has seen the ‘over’ go 37-15-2 (71%) the past 10 seasons and that includes a 2-0 record this season. The first result occurred in Week 5 between the Buccaneers and Saints.

This week, Denver will be playing its third straight road game when it visits St. Louis. This total is hovering between 50 and 51 points and it’s safe to say that we all know what the Broncos can do offensively. However, the Rams will be starting Shaun Hill at quarterback on Sunday and he’s not a quality NFL quarterback.

This system will come into play one more time in Week 13 when Cincinnati visits Tampa Bay.

Divisional Games

Only three divisional matchups on tap this week and two of them will have teams meeting for the first time.

Minnesota at Chicago: The ‘under’ has gone 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Atlanta at Carolina: The ‘under’ went 2-0 last season but was on a 3-0 run prior to those results.

Oakland at San Diego: In Week 6, the Raiders played arguably their best game of the season and still lost to the Chargers 31-28 at home. The game easily went ‘over’ (44) the number yet this week’s total is in the same neighborhood. That right there tells me to come back with the ‘under’ and I expect a better effort from the Chargers. Since winning that game, San Diego has gone 0-3 while getting outscored 95-41. Bolts are off the bye and they should be prepared for this game.

Big Easy System

For the fifth consecutive week, the “Thursday Night” total system connected and last week’s outcome was just as easy as the previous two weeks.

What’s the system?

All you have to do is find out who played at home the previous Thursday and play the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue.

In Week 9, Carolina hosted New Orleans at home on Thursday. This past Monday, the Panthers visited the Eagles and the system called for a lean on the ‘over’ (48). Philadelphia captured a 45-21 win and those playing the ‘over’ were all smiles – again.

Dating back to last season, the ‘over’ has gone 22-3-1 (88%) in these situations and that includes a 7-1 (88%) record this season.

This week the angle takes us to the “Big Easy” as Cincinnati meets New Orleans from the Superdome since the Bengals played the Browns last Thursday at home.

I thought this total (50 ½) would be a little higher based on some key injuries to both defensive units and the Saints have the ability to light up anybody at home.

However, Cincinnati’s offensive line is banged up and the loss of RB Giovani Bernard is apparently a bigger loss than expected. Also, it’s hard to ignore the fact that QB Andy Dalton has managed to only score 40 points in three road games this season.

It should be noted that this will be the first of three straight games against AFC North opponents for New Orleans. The Saints have watched the ‘over’ go 5-0 in their last five non-conference matchups, which includes a 26-24 loss (Over 49) at Cleveland in Week 2.

Under the Lights

Just when I thought that we would see some ‘under’ tickets begin to cash, the Sunday and Monday night outcomes saw the scoreboard get lit up respectively for 69 and 66 points in Week 10.

Including Thursday’s ‘under’ result between the Dolphins and Bills, the ‘over’ has gone 24-8 (75%) in night games this season. The best outcome has occurred on SNF with a 9-1 (90%) mark and another shootout is expected in this spot on Sunday.

New England at Indianapolis: Oddsmakers opened this game 56 and it’s already spiked as high as 58 at some betting shops, which is the highest total posted this season. The last five meetings between these teams have gone ‘over’ and since QB Andrew Luck arrived in Indianapolis, the Patriots have blasted the Colts 59-24 in 2012 and 43-22 in last year’s playoffs, both games played in New England. The Colts are at home for this game and their offense is ranked first in points (32.2 PPG) and yards (451.2). New England isn’t far behind in either category (31.2 PPG, 367 YPG). If these attacks show up and their current form continues, I don’t see the ‘over’ losing. However, Indy’s defense is only allowing 15 PPG at home this season and New England’s pass defense keeps everything in front of them. It’s a high number and while doable, it’s still a pass for me.

Pittsburgh at Tennessee: This total is hovering between 46 and 47 points and it’s hard to justify a play on the ‘over’ when you look at the Titans. Offensively, they look lost and last week’s 7-point effort against Baltimore was tied for the lowest of the season. The one stat that could have me leaning ‘over’ in this spot is Pittsburgh’s performances in late games. The Steelers have gone 4-1 both SU and ATS in contests not played at 1:00 p.m. ET and they’ve scored 37, 30, 51 and 43 points. For whatever reason, Big Ben and company like the spotlight. Despite not being in the same division, these teams have met the last six seasons and the ‘over/under’ has gone 3-3. Last year, Tennessee dropped Pittsburgh 16-9 as a six-point road underdog in Week 1.

Fearless Predictions

Does luck play a factor in sports betting? After watching Arizona’s defense score back-to-back touchdowns in the final minutes of their win last week, I’d answer yes. Those 14 points helped me cash ‘over’ tickets and finally, yes finally, put me in the black ($70). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Pittsburgh-Tennessee 47

Best Under: Oakland-San Diego 45

Best Team Total: Saints Over 29

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over Bengals-Saints 42.5
Under Raiders-Chargers 54
Under Patriots-Colts 66.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 11 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers

Texans at Browns (-3 ½, 41) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 10 Recap:
-- Houston went through the bye week after falling short at home in Week 9 to Philadelphia, 31-21 as 1 ½-point underdogs. The Texans have dropped four of their past five games following a 2-1 start, as Houston’s defense allowed nearly 500 yards to Philadelphia.
-- The Browns put together a dominating performance in front of a nationally televised audience last Thursday night, ripping the rival Bengals, 24-3 as 6 ½-point underdogs for their third straight win. During this hot streak, Cleveland has allowed just 23 points, as the Browns yielded 165 yards to the Bengals in their first win at Paul Brown Stadium since 2008.

Previous meeting: These teams last hooked up in 2011 as the Texans cruised past the Browns, 30-12 as 10 ½-point home favorites. Houston rushed for 261 yards in that victory, including 124 yards and a touchdown from Arian Foster, who will sit out Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury.

What to watch for: Both clubs are going in different directions as far as totals runs go, as the Texans are riding a four-game ‘over’ streak, while the Browns have hit the ‘under’ in five straight contests. Cleveland is 4-1 at home this season, but the Browns are just 2-2-1 ATS in the favorite role.

Seahawks at Chiefs (-1, 42) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 10 Recap:
-- Seattle has rebounded from a brief two-game skid as the defending champs have won three straight contests. The Seahawks rallied to beat the Giants, 38-17 behind four rushing touchdowns from Marshawn Lynch as Seattle cashed as nine-point favorites. Pete Carroll’s team covered for the first time in five games, in spite of Russell Wilson throwing two interceptions in the victory.
-- The Chiefs won their fourth straight contest and put an 0-2 start in the rear view mirror. Kansas City erased a 13-3 deficit to shock Buffalo, 17-13 with a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns. Andy Reid’s club is the hottest ATS team in the league, covering in seven of the past eight games since an opening week loss to Tennessee.

Previous meeting: Kansas City dominated Seattle at CenturyLink Field 42-24 in November of 2010, as Jamaal Charles rushed for 173 yards and a touchdown. The Seahawks are making their first trip to Arrowhead Stadium since 2006, when the Chiefs won 35-28 as four-point favorites.

What to watch for: The Chiefs’ defense has stepped up during this hot stretch, cashing five straight ‘unders,’ while limiting opponents to 30 points in the past three games combined. The Seahawks have covered just once in four games away from the Pacific Northwest this season, as Seattle is listed as a road favorite for the first time since last December at San Francisco in a two-point loss.

Bengals at Saints (-7, 50 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 10 Recap:
-- The Bengals have gone backwards since a 3-0 start, stumbling to a 2-3-1 record in the past six games. Cincinnati was run out quickly at home by Cleveland last Thursday, 24-3, falling to 1-4-1 ATS during this cold stretch, as Andy Dalton threw three interceptions in the defeat.
-- The Saints are coming off their first home loss since 2012, dropping a 27-24 overtime decision to the 49ers as six-point favorites. Drew Brees tossed three touchdown passes in the defeat, as New Orleans had its 11-game winning streak at the Superdome snapped.

Previous meeting: New Orleans won at Cincinnati in 2010 by a 34-30 count as 6 ½-point underdogs. Brees hooked up with Marques Colston for the game-winning touchdown in the final minute, as the Saints blew a 20-6 lead before coming out with the victory. The last time the Bengals visited the Superdome, Cincinnati came out with a 31-16 in 2006 as Brees threw for a career-high 510 yards in the defeat.

What to watch for: All three losses for the Bengals this season have come by at least 21 points, meaning if you like the Saints to win, chances are Cincinnati won’t keep it within the number. The Saints are riding a 5-1 ‘over’ stretch, while winning 10 straight games at home off a loss dating back to 2012.

Lions at Cardinals (-1, 41) – 4:25 PM EST

Week 10 Recap:
-- The Lions managed a last-minute home victory over the Dolphins, 20-16 to barely cover as three-point favorites. Detroit snapped a two-game ATS skid with the cover, as both Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate picked up over 100 yards receiving to give the Lions their third straight win.
Arizona improved to 8-1 with a 31-14 triumph over St. Louis. The Cardinals cashed as seven-point home favorites thanks to a pair of defensive touchdowns in the final five minutes, while Drew Stanton relieved the injured Carson Palmer and hooked up with rookie John Brown for the go-ahead 48-yard touchdown strike.

Previous meeting: Last September, the Cardinals knocked off the Lions as short home underdogs, 25-21. Rashard Mendenhall rushed in the winning touchdown for Arizona with two minutes remaining, while the Cardinals overcame two touchdowns from Johnson, who hauled in 116 yards in the loss.

What to watch for: Life without Palmer begins on Sunday after the former top pick tore his ACL in last week’s win. Stanton won two of three starts in relief of Palmer, including a Week 3 home victory over San Francisco. The Lions have won three straight road games since falling at Carolina in Week 2, while hitting the ‘under’ in seven of the past eight contests.

Eagles at Packers (-5 ½, 54 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

Week 10 Recap:
-- Philadelphia scored a season-high 45 points in a 24-point blowout over Carolina on Monday night. The Eagles improved to 5-0 at Lincoln Financial Field, while Mark Sanchez filled in admirably for the injured Nick Foles by throwing for 332 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
The Packers ran out the Bears for the second time this season, 55-14 at Lambeau Field as 9 ½-point favorites. Green Bay cruised to a 42-0 halftime advantage, while Aaron Rodgers burned the Chicago defense for six touchdowns and 315 yards.

Previous meeting: The Eagles dominated the Packers at Lambeau last November, 27-13 as one-point favorites. Rodgers sat out with a broken collarbone as LeSean McCoy ran for 155 yards for Philadelphia, while Riley Cooper hauled in a pair of touchdowns.

What to watch for: Green Bay is 8-1 to the ‘over’ this season, including six straight ‘overs.’ The Packers have won all four home games this season, while scoring at least 31 points in each victory. Under Chip Kelly, the Eagles own an 8-4 record away from Lincoln Financial Field, but the Eagles have compiled a 3-3 ATS record as a road underdog since 2013.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Over the winner when NFL totals reach record highs
By JASON LOGAN

Scoring in the NFL is rising with every snap. As of Week 10, the average total points scored per game is 46.68. So it’s no surprise football bettors are tackling a few sky-high totals in Week 11.

There are four Over/Under numbers of 50 points or more on the board Sunday: Cincinnati-New Orleans (50.5), Denver-St. Louis (50.5), Philadelphia-Green Bay (54.5) and New England-Indianapolis (57.5). The latter two games have totals that rank among the highest Over/Unders of the past 10 seasons.

The 54.5-point number for Eagles-Packers is tied for the 23rd-highest total since 2005, while the 57.5-point total for Patriots-Colts sits tied for the third-highest Over/Under in an NFL game in the past 10 seasons.

Since 2005, there have been 66 games with totals of 53 points or more and oddsmakers have done a good job balancing the results on those contests, with a dead-even 33-33 Over/Under count. However, when a game dictates a larger number, it’s for a reason.

The five NFL games with totals of 57 points or more in that span are a profitable 4-1 O/U heading into Week 11. Last season featured two of those monstrous numbers: Philadelphia-Denver (57.5) in Week 4 (Broncos 52, Eagles 20) and Washington-Denver (58.5) in Week 8 (Broncos 45, Redskins 21).

As a testament to the rapid increase in scoring, 28 of the 66 games (42 percent) with totals of 53 points or more since 2005 have been played in the past two years (15-13 O/U), with the 2014 regular season already boasting six games with 53-plus-point numbers – those games going a collective 5-1 O/U.

The 2013 regular season featured 19 games with an Over/Under of 53 points or greater, those potential shootouts finishing 10-9 O/U. And, to prove that defense does indeed win championships, the three playoff games with totals of 53-plus all played Under those lofty numbers. The average score was just over 43 points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 11
By JASON LOGAN

Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 11:

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-3, 41.5)

Texans’ head coach Bill O’Brien vs. Browns’ QB Brian Hoyer

Rarely do you have a head coach that knows this much about the opposing quarterback. But, in the case of Bill O’Brien and Brian Hoyer, the Browns QB might not be in the league if it wasn’t for the Texans’ skip.

O’Brien, the Patriots offensive coordinator in 2009, worked out Hoyer in East Lansing prior to that year’s draft. And when Hoyer went undrafted, it was O’Brien who gave him a shot at making New England’s roster. He worked alongside Hoyer as a backup to Tom Brady and credited his career to the Houston head coach when asked about their relationship this week.

But the lovefest will quickly get put aside when the whistle blows Sunday. The Texans desperately need a win – losing four of their last five – and O’Brien will have no qualms about sharing all of Hoyer’s strengths and especially his weaknesses with Houston’s defense, which thrives on turnovers. The Texans have 21 takeaways on the year, with 10 of those coming via interceptions.

Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5, 42.5)

Seahawks’ third-down defense vs. Chiefs’ third-down offense

The Seahawks defense is a shell of its former Super Bowl self, especially when it comes to ushering opponents off the field. Last season, Seattle allowed foes to convert on only 34.92 percent of their third downs - 23.53 percent in the playoffs. That’s ballooned to 43.33 percent in 2014 – ranking 10th worst in the NFL.

The Chiefs possess the prototypical offense to breakdown the Seattle stop unit. Kansas City combines a potent ground game with a dink-and-dump passing attack from Alex Smith, who is also mobile enough to keep the chains moving with his legs.

Smith has slowly ushered the offense down the field by throwing underneath the coverage, hitting TEs Travis Kelce and Anthony Fasano as well as WR Dwayne Bowe for big strikes on third downs. Kansas City is third in the NFL in converting on third down this season, with a 48.74 percent success rate, and is sixth in time of possession with an average TOP of 31:39.

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-10.5, 45.5)

Raiders’ red-zone efficiency vs. Chargers’ recent red-zone defense

The Silver and Black don’t get too many cracks at the end zone this season. But when the Raiders do sniff paydirt, they make the most out of it. Oakland leads the NFL in touchdown red-zone efficiency, putting up six points instead of settling for three 80 percent of the time.

The one hitch in that stat is that the Raiders have only been inside the 20-yard line just 15 times this season – scoring a TD on 12 of those opportunities. Oakland scored a touchdown on both of its trips to the red zone versus Denver last week and went 2 for 2 for two TDs in the red zone – both one-yard passes to Mychal Rivera – versus the Seahawks the week before.

San Diego is coming off the bye after losing three straight contests. The Bolts couldn’t stop opponents from scoring – no matter where on the field – giving up 95 totals points in that span. The Chargers watched Kansas City, Denver and Miami score nine combined red-zone touchdowns during this skid and rank dead last in red-zone TD defense, allowing foes to find paydirt on 70.83 percent of their trips inside the San Diego 20-yard line.

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 57.3)

Patriots’ weakness to receiving RBs vs. Colts’ RB Ahmad Bradshaw

There will be plenty of big plays when Tom Brady and Andrew Luck get into a passing-game pissing contests on Sunday Night Football in Week 11. But it will be the short throws that could do the most damage as far as the Colts and Pats are concerned.

Indianapolis has one of the better pass-catching running backs in the NFL with Ahmad Bradshaw reeling in 34 catches for 293 yards and six TD catches. Those receiving scores put the veteran back on par with such top-tier WRs as Demaryius Thomas, Brandon Marshall, Kelvin Benjamin, and Mike Wallace. New England knows all about Bradshaw, who posted 91 total yards of offense and a touchdown versus the Patriots in Super Bowl XLVI – coincidentally inside Lucas Oil Stadium back in 2012.

New England has shown a weakness to receiving running backs this season. The Patriots allowed Denver RB Ronnie Hillman to catch seven balls for 47 yards and a score in Week 9, watched Chicago RB Matt Forte post 54 yards on six receptions and a TD in Week 8, Kansas City RB Jamaal Charles scored two receiving touchdowns in Week 4, Vikings backup RB Matt Asiata scored a 25-yard touchdown catch-and-run in Week 2, and Dolphins RB Lamar Miller reeled in a four-yard TD pass in Miami’s season-opening upset over New England.