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'Chiefs Streak Ends'

Alex Smith and the Kansas City Chiefs are coming off an impressive performance dismantling the Brady Bunch 41-14 cashing as three point underdogs. This Sunday, Smith and the Chiefs try to win a third straight game as they head to San Francisco to battle the 49ers. Chiefs offense firing on all cylinders during it's two game win streak face a much better defense in San Francisco. Chiefs on a short week, plus having to travel to the west cost stumble in this one. 49ers' stingy defense allowing 69.8 rushing yards/game will all but negate Chiefs ground game. On the other side the 49ers will heavily feature Frank Gore knowing Chiefs are beatable on the ground. 49ers' 13-5 ATS as a home favorite winning the ground game by 30 or more yards, a smart 10-2 mark against the spread in October under coach Jim Harbaugh and Chiefs on a 1-4 ATS skid against the NFC West, 4-10 ATS slide following a Monday night game consider laying the points.
 
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Carlo Campanella

Atlanta Falcons vs. NY Giants

10* New York Giants

At first glance these teams are both 2-2 and you might want to back Atlanta. However, a closer looks shows that Atlanta's 2 wins are NOT as impressive as they once seemed, as they beat two struggling 1-3 teams in the Saints and Tampa Bay, who just won their first game of the year Sunday. Even worse has been Atlanta's play on the road, especially outdoors, where they've lost 24-10 at Cincinnati and last Sunday, 41-28, in Minnesota to a rookie QB making his first NFL start. Now they'll play in New York against an improving Giants team that's won 2 straight games by double digits, beating a good Houston (3-1) team, 30-17, and destroyed Washington, 45-14 on Thursday Night Football. One of these teams is going to win and own a winning record with Playoff possibilities...We're expecting that to be the improving G-Men, with 10 days to prepare since their Thursday victory and playing on their own turf! 10* Play On NY Giants
 
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NFL

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants October 5, 01:00 EST
The Giants' offense finally kicking in this past two weeks defeating Houston 30-17 and Washington 45-14 look primed to make it three in-a-row. Eli Manning tossing 6 TD's, RB's Jennings, Williams grinding out a combined 375 rushing yards 2 TD's over the win streak G-Men should have little trouble shredding Falcons struggling defense that just gave up 317 passing, 241 rushing yards in a 41-28 loss at Minnesota. Both of these 2-2 teams need a victory to keep pace, but with Falcons' mired in a dreadful 1-9 (3-7 ATS) road skid, 0-2 ATS as a road underdog following a double digit loss the lean is New York.

Cincinnati at New England October 05, 08:30 EST
The Cincinnati Bengals off to a 3-0 SU/ATS start behind a league leading defense allowing just 11.0 points/game look to remain perfect when they visit Gillette Stadium to take on struggling Patriots sitting a 2-2 (1-3 ATS) after being embarrassed 41-14 in the Monday night showdown at Kansas City. It was an ugly loss for the Patriots but you bet against Patriots at your own risk. Patriots are 7-2 ATS when pegged underdogs, 3-0 (2-1 ATS) after a 2TD loss, 7-1 (5-3 ATS) after a road loss as a favorite, 3-0 (2-1-1 ATS) following MNF on the road and 4-0 (2-1-1 ATS) hosting an AFC North opponent.
 
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Sam Martin

New York Jets at San Diego Chargers 4:25PM

5* San Diego Chargers

Reason: 5* Play on San Diego. New York Jets have faced two good passing teams and lost both games by a touchdown. We'll fade the Jets in another unfavorable matchup this week as they go all the way across the country and take on the red hot Chargers. San Diego comes in underrated with a 3-1 record and that one loss came by a single point. They beat the defending Super Bowl Champion Seahawks here at home and followed up that win with two double-digits victories.
Love the matchup of the Chargers passing attack against the Jets, who gave up 31 points against Green Bay as well as 24 points last week against Detroit. Honestly, we would have given out San Diego as a premium selection if this line was a bit lower, but even having this game along the key numbers of 7 and 7.5, we still feel the Jets will have a hard time covering this spread. Chargers are 9-1 ATS in the first half of the season dating back to last year, and they stay hot with another win and over here! 5* Play on San Diego.
 
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Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Sunday 1:00 PM

(453) CLEVELAND BROWNS at (454) TENNESSEE TITANS

Take: (454) TENNESSEE TITANS -1.5

Let’s give some props to the Cleveland Browns. They’re just 1-2 to start the season, but it’s also true that they’re within just a play or two of being 3-0 and the biggest surprise in the NFL. However at the same time, it’s just as easy to see how the Browns could be 0-3.

I’m focusing a little more on some of those negative numbers in breaking down Cleveland’s game with the Titans on Sunday. Sure, there are some positives out there. Brian Hoyer has been pick-free through three games, Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell are each running the ball impressively, and Andrew Hawkins is emerging as a legit talent at wide receiver. The Browns are absolutely doing more on offense than I anticipated prior to the season, especially with Josh Gordon having to sit out the proceedings.

But the Cleveland defense has some holes. The Browns are having a great deal of trouble stopping the run, with opponents connecting for an absurdly high 5.2 yards per carry. That’s bad, and so is the fact the Browns are allowing a 66% completion rate.

The Titans would appear to therefore match up well with Cleveland. I see Tennessee being at its best when they feature the run. They probably haven’t done as much of that as they should so far, although some of the imbalance is due to operating deficits in their last three outings. I’m hoping and expecting to see much more of the running backs here.

The Titans will also likely have Jake Locker back under center. Locker is not exactly a world beater at QB, but he’s better than Charlie Whitehurst, who filled in ineffectively last week in the drubbing at Indianapolis.

What I need to see from the Titans here is a boring game plan that features lots of running and controlled passing game with tight end Delanie Walker getting featured once again. I really feel as though Tennessee will be able to put together some lengthy and productive drives if they stay within themselves.

The Browns are off the bye week, so they ought to be fresh here, and there’s no doubt about it, Cleveland has been more competitive than Tennessee through the first month of the season. But I’m a believer in finding value with strength vs. weakness and if that happens to be in the run game, I’m consistently going to back the team that figures to win that stat. In this case, I believe there’s a legit chance the Titans could outrush the Browns by a substantial margin, and if they accomplish that, they’re a likely winner here. No problem with the price as it’s less than a field goal, so Tennessee minus the small spot is the play.
 

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Kelso

Kansas City
Cincinnati

Added games
San Diego
Over 43.5 Detroit/Buffalo
Over 49 Indy/Baltimore

pretty sure the 100 would be KC (as it's a dog that will win outright)
the other play he has is sunday night... 50 unit. which would be CIN
 

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