Pick Six - Week 8
Week 8 Record: 3-3 SU, 2-3-1 ATS
Overall Record: 21-21 SU, 19-22-1 ATS
Bears at Saints (-9, 47½)
Chicago
Record: 3-4 SU, 5-2 ATS, 5-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 80/1
The Bears have covered all three games since rookie Mitchell Trubisky took over at quarterback. Chicago took care of Carolina last week as 2 ½-point home underdogs, 17-3, even though Trubisky completed only four passes, while the defense produced a pair of touchdowns. Chicago’s offense has scored 17 points in five of seven games, while the Bears try to improve on a 1-10 record in their past 11 contests away from Soldier Field.
New Orleans
Record: 4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS, 4-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1
This is a much different Saints’ team than what was showcased following an 0-2 start. New Orleans is riding a four-game winning streak after rallying past Green Bay, 26-17 as 3½-point road favorites, while putting up nearly 500 yards of offense. The Saints won three of these four games away from the Superdome, as New Orleans returns to the Big Easy for three of its next four contests. New Orleans has cashed in six of its past eight opportunities as a favorite since last November, while beating Chicago in its previous three matchups dating back to 2011.
Best Bet: Saints -9
Falcons (-4½, 46½) at Jets
Atlanta
Record: 3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS, 4-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1
The Falcons have been grounded recently by dropping three straight games since a 3-0 start. The only good news for the defending NFC champions is all three defeats came to AFC squads, meaning their conference record is still unblemished. However, Atlanta’s offense has produced only seven points in the last six quarters, while coming up short in the Super Bowl rematch at New England, 23-7. Last season, the Falcons covered seven of eight road games, but have slipped to 1-2 ATS on the highway in 2017 as their only cover came in a narrow win at Detroit in Week 3.
New York
Record: 3-4 SU, 4-2-1 ATS, 4-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 250/1
The Jets were on the fast track to the top pick of the draft following an 0-2 start, but New York caught fire by winning three straight games. Unfortunately, the Jets squandered double-digit leads in their last two losses to the Patriots and Dolphins to slip below the .500 mark. New York pushed as three-point underdogs in last Sunday’s 31-28 setback at Miami, as its ATS record is 4-0-1 the last five weeks. The Jets have struggled at home against NFC opponents the last three season by posting a 1-5 record with the only victory coming over Washington in 2015.
Best Bet: Falcons -4½
Raiders at Bills (-2½, 45½)
Oakland
Record: 3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS, 4-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 33/1
One win doesn’t save a season at this point, but Oakland avoided a 2-5 start with a late rally to stun Kansas City last Thursday, 31-30 to snap a four-game skid. Not only did the Raiders bust the 17-point mark for the first time since Week 2, but Oakland cashed outright as three-point home ‘dogs, while Derek Carr torched the Chiefs’ defense for 417 yards and three touchdowns. Now Oakland heads to the east coast for the second time this season as the Raiders were rolled at Washington back in Week 3. However, the Silver and Black owns an 11-4 ATS record as a road underdog since Jack Del Rio took over as head coach in 2015.
Buffalo
Record: 4-2 SU, 4-1-1 ATS, 4-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1
The Bills haven’t finished above the .500 mark since 2014 as Buffalo has gotten off to its customary solid start before melting down late. Buffalo held off Tampa Bay, 30-27, but were outgained in passing yardage for the fifth straight game. The Bills are a perfect 3-0 at New Era Field this season, which is a nice change from the 2-3 record in their final five home games in 2016. The home team has won each of the past six matchups between the Bills and Raiders since 2004, as Oakland won at the Coliseum last season, 38-24.
Best Bet: Raiders +2½
Chargers at Patriots (-7, 48½)
Los Angeles
Record: 3-4 SU, 3-3-1 ATS, 4-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 66/1
The Chargers have suddenly come to life following an 0-4 start by beating the Giants, Raiders, and Broncos in the last three weeks. Los Angeles pitched a 21-0 shutout of Denver at home last Sunday to improve to 2-2 in AFC West play, while covering for the third straight week in the underdog role. Four of Los Angeles’ six games have been decided by five points or less, while receiving at least six points for the first time since the 2016 season opening overtime loss at Kansas City.
New England
Record: 5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS, 4-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 7/2
The Patriots didn’t dig themselves a 25-point hole against the Falcons in the rematch of this past season’s epic Super Bowl as New England blew out Atlanta last Sunday night, 23-7. New England’s defense was chewed up in the first four weeks of the season, but the Pats have finished UNDER the total in the last three games, while allowing a total of 38 points. The Pats have won each of the past three meetings with the Chargers since 2010, including a 23-14 triumph at San Diego in their previous matchup in 2014.
Best Bet: Patriots -7
Texans at Seahawks (-6, 45½)
Houston
Record: 3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS, 4-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 33/1
The Texans have failed to win consecutive games this season, as they are fresh off the bye week, while coming off a 33-17 blowout of the hapless Browns in Week 6. Houston has topped the 33-point mark in each of the past four games, as rookie Deshaun Watson has thrown 14 touchdown passes in this stretch to help cash the OVER four times. The Texans have covered in three of four opportunities in the underdog role, including ATS wins at New England and Cincinnati.
Seattle
Record: 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 10/1
The Seahawks stumbled to a 1-2 record out of the gate, but Seattle has rebounded with three consecutive victories. For the exception of allowing 33 points in a Week 3 loss at Tennessee, the Seahawks’ defense has yielded 18 points or less in five other games this season. The Seahawks traveled out east last Sunday and pulled away from the Giants, 24-7 as four-point favorites, led by Russell Wilson’s three touchdown passes in the second half. The last time these teams hooked up in 2013 in Houston, the Seahawks overcame a 20-3 deficit to beat the Texans in overtime, 23-20.
Best Bet: Seahawks -6
Cowboys (-2, 50) at Redskins
Dallas
Record: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1
The Cowboys responded well following their bye week and coming off a pair of home losses to the Rams and Packers. Dallas went out to San Francisco and blasted the 49ers, 40-10 as 6 ½-point favorites, paced by Ezekiel Elliott’s three touchdowns and 219 all-purpose yards. The Cowboys improved to 2-1 SU/ATS on the road with that victory, while seeking their fifth consecutive victory at FedEx Field dating back to 2013. The underdog has covered in six of the past seven matchups between these NFC East rivals, including Dallas winning at Washington last September as 3½-point ‘dogs, 27-23.
Washington
Record: 3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS, 4-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1
The Redskins’ season can fall apart quickly during this stretch against Philadelphia (loss), Dallas, Seattle, Minnesota, and New Orleans. Or Washington can get back on track following last Monday’s 34-24 setback to the Eagles, as the Redskins have yet to lose consecutive games this season. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has thrown for multiple touchdowns in four straight games, while Washington has scored at least 24 points in four of the past five games. The Redskins have cashed in seven of their last nine opportunities as a home underdog since 2015, but one of those losses came to Philadelphia in Week 1.
Best Bet: Redskins +2