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Sunday 10/29/17 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Requests Etc.
- Thread starter Pesos
- Start date
Rick Needham at Belmont Park
RACE #8 - BELMONT PARK - 4:46 PM EASTERN POST
The Pumpkin Pie Stakes
6.0 FURLONGS DIRT FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $100,000.00 PURSE
#4 BUSTIN OUT
#1 INDULGENT
#7 CURSOR
#5 SUMMER READING
Here in just the 4th running of "The Pie," and the last stake race of the current Belmont Park Summer/Fall meet as N.Y.R.A. racing moves to Aqueduct next weekend, #4 BUSTIN OUT, the overall speed leader in this field sprinting at 6.0 furlongs on the dirt, has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in each of her last five outings, including a quartet of "POWER RUN WINS" being embedded in this recent streak of racing consistency. Jockey Manuel Franco has been in her irons on 18 previous occasions, hitting the board in 17 of those rides, winning 9 times, and is back today here in Elmont for his 19th ride, gunning for a 10th win. #1 INDULGENT, the morning line favorite, has produced a quartet of "POWER RUNS" in her last five outings, hitting the board in a pair.
RACE #8 - BELMONT PARK - 4:46 PM EASTERN POST
The Pumpkin Pie Stakes
6.0 FURLONGS DIRT FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $100,000.00 PURSE
#4 BUSTIN OUT
#1 INDULGENT
#7 CURSOR
#5 SUMMER READING
Here in just the 4th running of "The Pie," and the last stake race of the current Belmont Park Summer/Fall meet as N.Y.R.A. racing moves to Aqueduct next weekend, #4 BUSTIN OUT, the overall speed leader in this field sprinting at 6.0 furlongs on the dirt, has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in each of her last five outings, including a quartet of "POWER RUN WINS" being embedded in this recent streak of racing consistency. Jockey Manuel Franco has been in her irons on 18 previous occasions, hitting the board in 17 of those rides, winning 9 times, and is back today here in Elmont for his 19th ride, gunning for a 10th win. #1 INDULGENT, the morning line favorite, has produced a quartet of "POWER RUNS" in her last five outings, hitting the board in a pair.
The Walker Group at Century Downs
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 5 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6500 Class Rating: 71
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES IN 2017. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 29 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 3 THE GREY ONE 1/1
# 4 SAINT SASSY SUE 3/1
# 2 MERVEILLEUSE 10/1
THE GREY ONE is the strongest wager in this race. Wagerers should probably take a good look at this one as this filly has one of the best win percentages at this distance in this field. Had one of the top Equibase speed figs of this group in her last race. Has run solidly when racing a dirt sprint race. SAINT SASSY SUE - Overall, has one of the top earnings per start in dirt sprint races in this group. Overall the speed figures of this pony look formidable in this race. MERVEILLEUSE - Ran a strong last race. Horses who have been prepared to race at this distance and surface by Tracy have shown strong results recently.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 5 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6500 Class Rating: 71
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES IN 2017. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 29 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 3 THE GREY ONE 1/1
# 4 SAINT SASSY SUE 3/1
# 2 MERVEILLEUSE 10/1
THE GREY ONE is the strongest wager in this race. Wagerers should probably take a good look at this one as this filly has one of the best win percentages at this distance in this field. Had one of the top Equibase speed figs of this group in her last race. Has run solidly when racing a dirt sprint race. SAINT SASSY SUE - Overall, has one of the top earnings per start in dirt sprint races in this group. Overall the speed figures of this pony look formidable in this race. MERVEILLEUSE - Ran a strong last race. Horses who have been prepared to race at this distance and surface by Tracy have shown strong results recently.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park West
Gulfstream Park West - Race 6
$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $.50 Bet 3 (Races 6-7-8) / $1 Super Hi 5 / $.50 Pick 5 (Races 6-10)
Maiden Claiming $10,000 • 5 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 62 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 4:02P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT FIVE FURLONGS).
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. RETURNTASENDA is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * RETURNTASENDA: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 d ays. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
Gulfstream Park West - Race 6
$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $.50 Bet 3 (Races 6-7-8) / $1 Super Hi 5 / $.50 Pick 5 (Races 6-10)
Maiden Claiming $10,000 • 5 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 62 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 4:02P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT FIVE FURLONGS).
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. RETURNTASENDA is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * RETURNTASENDA: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 d ays. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
The Turf Club Analysts
Bar
Laurel - Race #2 - Post: 1:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $33,000 Class Rating: 75
Rating: 4
#7 HOLIDAY HOPES (ML=6/1)
HOLIDAY HOPES - Taking a class drop in Equibase class figure points from her October 15th race at Laurel. Based on that element, I will give this one the edge. Filly took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape.
Vulnerable Contenders: #4 HOT FRIESIA (ML=5/2), #1 VALIANT REASON (ML=3/1), #1A SUNNY SONATA (ML=3/1),
HOT FRIESIA - Most of the time I need a sprinter to have some recent good showings in sprint races in order to back her. Should be difficult for this thoroughbred to beat this field off of that last speed rating. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class rating, so put her on the vulnerable contenders list. VALIANT REASON - Today's contest is 7 furlongs. Hasn't finished in the money in a short distance event in the last couple months. Not the greatest of signs. SUNNY SONATA - Not easy to play this less than sharp equine this time. Make her show you something in a sprint event before you wager on her in a race of 7 furlongs. Improbable for this questionable contender to do much this time around. The long layoff is a troublesome sign.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #7 HOLIDAY HOPES on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
7 with 1
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:
None
** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **
Bar
Laurel - Race #2 - Post: 1:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $33,000 Class Rating: 75
Rating: 4
#7 HOLIDAY HOPES (ML=6/1)
HOLIDAY HOPES - Taking a class drop in Equibase class figure points from her October 15th race at Laurel. Based on that element, I will give this one the edge. Filly took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape.
Vulnerable Contenders: #4 HOT FRIESIA (ML=5/2), #1 VALIANT REASON (ML=3/1), #1A SUNNY SONATA (ML=3/1),
HOT FRIESIA - Most of the time I need a sprinter to have some recent good showings in sprint races in order to back her. Should be difficult for this thoroughbred to beat this field off of that last speed rating. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class rating, so put her on the vulnerable contenders list. VALIANT REASON - Today's contest is 7 furlongs. Hasn't finished in the money in a short distance event in the last couple months. Not the greatest of signs. SUNNY SONATA - Not easy to play this less than sharp equine this time. Make her show you something in a sprint event before you wager on her in a race of 7 furlongs. Improbable for this questionable contender to do much this time around. The long layoff is a troublesome sign.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #7 HOLIDAY HOPES on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
7 with 1
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:
None
** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **
The Walker Group at Mountaineer Park
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 9 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $6300 Class Rating: 69
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 29 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 3 HER CASE OF GOLD 5/2
# 4 PHILLY'S GOLD 3/1
# 10 NORTH LATITUDE 5/1
HER CASE OF GOLD looks to be a very good contender. Must be considered a key contender on earnings per start at the distance/surface alone. Is a solid contender based on numbers posted recently under today's conditions. Will almost certainly compete well in the early pace clash which bodes well with this group. PHILLY'S GOLD - Has been racing in the most competitive company of the group of animals recently. Could provide positive gains based on formidable recent speed figures with an average of 57. NORTH LATITUDE - She has been running admirably lately while recording strong Equibase speed figs. Has performed well recently in route races, posting a nifty 58 avg Equibase Speed Fig.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 9 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $6300 Class Rating: 69
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 29 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 3 HER CASE OF GOLD 5/2
# 4 PHILLY'S GOLD 3/1
# 10 NORTH LATITUDE 5/1
HER CASE OF GOLD looks to be a very good contender. Must be considered a key contender on earnings per start at the distance/surface alone. Is a solid contender based on numbers posted recently under today's conditions. Will almost certainly compete well in the early pace clash which bodes well with this group. PHILLY'S GOLD - Has been racing in the most competitive company of the group of animals recently. Could provide positive gains based on formidable recent speed figures with an average of 57. NORTH LATITUDE - She has been running admirably lately while recording strong Equibase speed figs. Has performed well recently in route races, posting a nifty 58 avg Equibase Speed Fig.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf Paradise
Turf Paradise - Race 2
$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 2-3) / $.50 Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4)
Futurity • 350 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 83 • Purse: $23,655 • Post: 1:25P
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, AQRA FUTURITY - FOR QUARTER HORSES, TWO YEAR OLDS, WHICH HAVE QUALIFIED FOR THE AQRA FUTURITY. PURSE TO BE DIVIDED: 50% TO WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 10% TO THIRD, 6% TO FOURTH, 4% TO FIFTH, 3% TO SIXTH, 2.5% TO SEVENTH, 2% TO EIGHTH, 1.5% TO NINTH, 1% TO TENTH. STARTERS TO PASS THROUGH THE ENTRY BOX BY THE USUAL TIME OF CLOSING. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * TEXAS TORNADOE: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. PIRTEVILLE CARTEL: Horse ranks in the top th ree in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. TANYAH TUCKER: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Jockey/Trainer combination return o n investment is at least +20.
2
TEXAS TORNADOE
6/5
4/1
10
PIRTEVILLE CARTEL
9/2
6/1
8
TANYAH TUCKER
8/1
7/1
Turf Paradise - Race 2
$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 2-3) / $.50 Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4)
Futurity • 350 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 83 • Purse: $23,655 • Post: 1:25P
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, AQRA FUTURITY - FOR QUARTER HORSES, TWO YEAR OLDS, WHICH HAVE QUALIFIED FOR THE AQRA FUTURITY. PURSE TO BE DIVIDED: 50% TO WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 10% TO THIRD, 6% TO FOURTH, 4% TO FIFTH, 3% TO SIXTH, 2.5% TO SEVENTH, 2% TO EIGHTH, 1.5% TO NINTH, 1% TO TENTH. STARTERS TO PASS THROUGH THE ENTRY BOX BY THE USUAL TIME OF CLOSING. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * TEXAS TORNADOE: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. PIRTEVILLE CARTEL: Horse ranks in the top th ree in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. TANYAH TUCKER: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Jockey/Trainer combination return o n investment is at least +20.
2
TEXAS TORNADOE
6/5
4/1
10
PIRTEVILLE CARTEL
9/2
6/1
8
TANYAH TUCKER
8/1
7/1
Valuline at Zia Park
Today's Most Likely Winner Is at:
Zia Park, Race 7 (Sunday October 29, 2017)
SIPPIN
(For ten of today's most likely winners, see Exotic Key Plays.)
ZIA-7 6f DIRT Eleven Horses
"A" STK F 3Y $140,000
P# ex p3 t s ML WP TVL
2 SIPPIN 7/5 36% 9/5 Strong Favorite icon
8 WALTZING ATTILA 9/2 20% 4/1
7 I'M A DANCIN WHO 12/1 13% 7/1
Today's Most Likely Winner Is at:
Zia Park, Race 7 (Sunday October 29, 2017)
SIPPIN
(For ten of today's most likely winners, see Exotic Key Plays.)
ZIA-7 6f DIRT Eleven Horses
"A" STK F 3Y $140,000
P# ex p3 t s ML WP TVL
2 SIPPIN 7/5 36% 9/5 Strong Favorite icon
8 WALTZING ATTILA 9/2 20% 4/1
7 I'M A DANCIN WHO 12/1 13% 7/1
The Turf Club Analysts
Bar
Zia Park - Race #7 - Post: 2:54pm - Stakes - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $140,000 Class Rating: 82 New Mexico Classic Cup Oaks Championship S.
Rating: 3
#8 WALTZING ATTILA (ML=9/2)
#9 TO SATISFY YOU (ML=20/1)
#1 FROSTY (ML=8/1)
#4 IVY GIMLET (ML=15/1)
WALTZING ATTILA - This one likes to win on different ovals. The switch in venue today may be a wake up call. Sterling knows this horse pretty well. Strong win percentage of 75 when horse and jockey work together. TO SATISFY YOU - Strong return on investment for this rider and handler tandem. This filly is in fine form. Ended up second on October 16th. FROSTY - Juarez and Dominguez perform well when they work together. It's hard to beat a +31 return on investment for a jockey and handler. For my money, a bullet workout is the best indicator of fitness there is. Look at that last one - 48.2. Very impressive. This filly's last speed rating is strong enough to score here, I'll wager on her back again today. IVY GIMLET - This horse has shown the class ability to win on different racing tracks. Making the move from Ruidoso Downs for today's event, I have to believe she's ready to run. This filly is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Dominguez. I just may give this one a chance. Should improve off last race where she did run out of the money, but was within 5 lengths at the end.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 SIPPIN (ML=7/5), #10 MISS TWISTER (ML=6/1),
SIPPIN - Difficult to wager on any runner in a short distance affair if she hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last sixty days. I think this morning-line choice needs this race under her belt to start getting back into shape. MISS TWISTER - When examining today's class rating, she will have to earn a better speed fig than last time out to be competitive in this dirt sprint.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #8 WALTZING ATTILA to win. Have to have odds of at least 4/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,8,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
Bar
Zia Park - Race #7 - Post: 2:54pm - Stakes - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $140,000 Class Rating: 82 New Mexico Classic Cup Oaks Championship S.
Rating: 3
#8 WALTZING ATTILA (ML=9/2)
#9 TO SATISFY YOU (ML=20/1)
#1 FROSTY (ML=8/1)
#4 IVY GIMLET (ML=15/1)
WALTZING ATTILA - This one likes to win on different ovals. The switch in venue today may be a wake up call. Sterling knows this horse pretty well. Strong win percentage of 75 when horse and jockey work together. TO SATISFY YOU - Strong return on investment for this rider and handler tandem. This filly is in fine form. Ended up second on October 16th. FROSTY - Juarez and Dominguez perform well when they work together. It's hard to beat a +31 return on investment for a jockey and handler. For my money, a bullet workout is the best indicator of fitness there is. Look at that last one - 48.2. Very impressive. This filly's last speed rating is strong enough to score here, I'll wager on her back again today. IVY GIMLET - This horse has shown the class ability to win on different racing tracks. Making the move from Ruidoso Downs for today's event, I have to believe she's ready to run. This filly is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Dominguez. I just may give this one a chance. Should improve off last race where she did run out of the money, but was within 5 lengths at the end.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 SIPPIN (ML=7/5), #10 MISS TWISTER (ML=6/1),
SIPPIN - Difficult to wager on any runner in a short distance affair if she hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last sixty days. I think this morning-line choice needs this race under her belt to start getting back into shape. MISS TWISTER - When examining today's class rating, she will have to earn a better speed fig than last time out to be competitive in this dirt sprint.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #8 WALTZING ATTILA to win. Have to have odds of at least 4/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,8,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
