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NFL

Week 8

Lions (5-2) vs Falcons (2-5) (London)—Atlanta is in freefall, losing last four games while allowing 31.8 ppg (13 TD’s on 41 drives); they allowed 9+ yards/pass attempt in four of last six games, losing all four road games by 10+ points (average score, 31-16). Detroit won four of last five games, scoring two TD’s in last 3:38 to stun Saints at home last game; they’ve held four of last five opponents to 17 or less points. Atlanta is 2-5 this season when scoring less than 37 points. Lions won two of three road games, with favorite covered all three games; over last 10+ years, they’re 6-9-2 as road favorites, but 2-0 this season. Falcons won last three series games, by 13-7-13 points. NFC South teams are 2-12-1 SU in non-divisional road tilts, 3-8-1 vs spread. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 3-5.

Vikings (2-5) @ Buccaneers (1-5)—Minnesota lost last three games, scoring total of 29 points (two TD’s on last 37 drives); they scored 34-41 points in only two wins- they’re 1-5 without Peterson. Vikings are 1-3 on road, 0-2 outdoors, scoring 13 ppg outside. Buccaneers won last six series games, with four of six by 11+ points; Vikings lost last six visits to Tampa, with last win in ’97. Tampa Bay allowed 85 points in last two games before its bye; they’re 7-12-1 in last 20 games as home favorite, 0-2 this year- they’re 0-3 SU at home this year, losing by 6-2-31 points and two of those three games were against backup QB’s. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 3-5-1 vs spread, 3-2 at home. Last four Buc games went over total; five of seven Viking games stayed under.

Bears (3-4) @ Patriots (5-2)— After being 4-10-1 as road underdog from 2011-13, Bears are 3-1 this year; visitor won six of seven Chicago games this season, with Bears 3-1 SU on road - they led late at Carolina before turning ball over on last three drives and losing 31-24. Chicago lost three of last four games overall, turning ball over nine times (-6) in three losses. Bears are 3-0 this season when allowing 20 or less points, 0-4 when allowing 23+- they’re +7 in turnovers when they win, -8 in losses. Patriots covered four of last five vs NFC teams; they won last three games with Chicago by 3-4-29 points. Pats are 0-2 as home faves this year, 21-15 in last 36 as non-divisional HF. NFC North non-divisional road dogs are 4-4; AFC non-divisional home faves are 0-6 vs spread. Last four Patriot games went over total.

Rams (2-4) @ Chiefs (3-3)—Young Rams hit road after facing top two rivals at home last two games, upsetting Seattle last week; they’ve either won or had 14+-point lead in each of last five games. St Louis is 2-0 as road dogs this year, 11-7 as road dogs overall under Fisher, winning at Tampa, losing 34-28 at Philly in game they trailed 34-7. Chiefs split pair of home games, with dogs winning both SU; they’re 5-18-1 as home favorites since ’07, 2-6 under Reid. KC ran ball for 154+ yards in each of its wins; they’re 0-3 when rushing ball for less than that. Chiefs held San Diego to 251 yards in upset win last week. Road teams won six of last eight games in this intrastate series. NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 2-4 vs spread; AFC West non-divisional home faves are 5-2. Last four Ram games went over total.

Seahawks (3-3) @ Panthers (3-3-1)—Defending champs lost last two games, allowing 58 points; they’ve allowed 28+ points in all three losses this year, are 1-2 on road, winning 27-17 in Washington, losing at San Diego/St Louis- they allowed 20 or less points in all three wins, but had terrible special teams game last week. Carolina is 1-3-1 in last five games after 2-0 start, with losses by 18-28-21 points; they’ve allowed 17 TD’s on foes’ last 43 drives. Seattle struggled but won on this field last two years, 16-12/12-7; Carolina scored 14 or less points in last five series games. Hawks are 6-4 in last ten games as road favorite, 1-2 this year. Panthers won two of three home games; they’re 5-5 as home dogs under Rivera. Carolina is 3-0-1 with positive turnover ratio; they’ve been -2/-1/-1 in their three losses.

Bills (4-3) @ Jets (1-6)—Home side won last five series games; Bills lost last four visits here, by 31-4-20-7 points. Buffalo turned ball over nine times (-7) in last two games, but pulled game out last week vs Vikings, when Orton threw TD pass with 0:01 left; he is major upgrade over younger Manuel. Orton led game-winning TD drive late in two of his three starts; Bills are 4-0 when allowing 20 or less points, 0-3 when they allow more. Jets lost last six games, giving up 24+ points in all six; they’ve also lost four of last five post-bye games. Gang Green has only three takeaways in seven games (-9); they ran ball for 218 yards in tough 27-25 loss last week in Foxboro and had extra three days to recover from that. Not sure if newly-acquired WR Harvin will play big role here or not. Six of seven Buffalo games stayed under total.

Dolphins (3-3) @ Jaguars (1-6)—Jags got first win last week after getting first cover week before; they’re 7-20-1 as home underdog since ’10, 1-2 this year, but have played better since rookie QB Bortles became starter- they ran ball for 185 yards in win over Browns last week, winning field position (by 12 yards) for first time all year. Miami won last two road games by 24-13 points; win at Oakland was first in four tries as road favorite under Philbin. Miami ran ball for 137+ yards in four of six games. Over last three years, Jaguars are 2-6 vs spread in game following a win. Miami won 24-10/14-10 in last two visits here. AFC East non-divisional favorites are 1-7 vs spread; AFC South non-divisional dogs are 5-5. Last three Jax games stayed under total; three of last four Miami games went over.

Texans (3-4) @ Titans (2-5)—Houston started 2-0 this year and last; other than those four games, they’re 1-18 in last 19—how long before they start playing Mallett at QB, seeing as they traded a draft pick for him? Road game here on short week for Texans after bizarre meltdown Monday night when they allowed 24 points in 2:54 after they led 13-0. Texans are 3-2 in last five visits here, 3-1 in last four series games overall. Houston lost last three games, all by 7 or less points; they’ve lost last three road games, including OT game at 6-1 Dallas. Texans covered once in last five games as road favorite. Titans’ last three games were decided by total of five points; they’re 3-7-1 in last 11 games as a home underdog. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 5-7 vs spread in divisional games.

Ravens (5-2) @ Bengals (3-2-1)—Rematch of Cincy’s 23-16 (+1.5) win in Week 1, when Bengals blew 15-0 lead, only to score winning TD on 77-yard pass to Green with 4:58 left; he had 131 receiving yards in that game, is expected back here after being hurt (toe), missing couple games. Teams split season series three of last four years- Ravens lost four of last five visits here. Cincy is 0-2-1 after 3-0 start and a bye; they’re 2-0-1 at home, winning by 14-26 points, tying Panthers. After allowing 33 points in first three games, they allowed 107 in next three. Baltimore won five of six games since Week 1 loss, with last three wins all by 22+ points; they’ve won two of three on road, losing 20-13 at 5-2 Indy. Ravens are 4-0 if they turn ball over less than two times; they won field position last two weeks by 16-11 yards.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Martinsville 500
By Micah Roberts

It's kind of ironic in this twist and turns of the NASCAR Sprint Cup Chase drama that we go from the biggest track in the series -- Talladega Superspeedway -- to the smallest at Martinsville Speedway on Sunday. It’s half-mile short track racing time and this layout -- with relatively no banking -- will have a huge impact on which of the eight eligible drivers win the Championship in four weeks at Homestead.

Martinsville starts the three race Eliminator Round, and after races at Texas and Phoenix, four of the eight drivers will be eliminated with a championship game of sorts at Homestead for the final four remaining drivers. They have to either win one of the next three or total more points to advance. There's a possibility that only one driver will advance by points. Then, the best finish among the last four remaining at Homestead wins the Sprint Cup.

The cool thing about this round is that there are three vastly different tracks and each has drivers that traditionally do well on them. The Westgate SuperBook has Jeff Gordon listed as the 5/2 favorite (Bet $100 to win $250) to be that final driver standing at Homestead with Brad Keselowski at 3/1 odds. Keselowski advanced to The Eliminator round in dramatic fashion with a win at Talladega.


Keselowski will have an edge at Texas and Phoenix, but he’s not considered one of the favorites at Martinsville where his best finish is fourth in this race last fall. If he can somehow manage to finish in the top-10 like he did during 2012 championship season when he finished sixth, he’ll be in a good shape to advance because he’s absolute money on the other two tracks and will be favored to win. However, if he finishes 38th again like he did in the first Martinsville race back in March, he’ll be in a situation again like Talladega where he’ll need to win to advance.

Gordon should get off to a great start in this round because he’s one of the best ever at Martinsville, a track that has been running continually in the Cup series since 1949. Gordon has eight wins on the track that looks like a paper-clip, but most importantly is that he won this race last fall. He had been stuck on seven wins since 2005 as Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin were doing most of the winning.

In between the wins, Gordon had 12 top-5 finishes in 15 starts, an amazing run of consistency and it was a huge moment when he finally visited victory lane again there last season. He finished 12th in the spring race this season.

The only driver just as smooth as Gordon at Martinsville is Johnson who also has eight career wins. He won five of six races there from 2006-09 and won there last spring. In the spring, he led the most laps before settling for second behind Kurt Busch. Johnson lost the lead with 11 laps to go.

Now that Johnson has been eliminated from winning his record tying seventh Cup title, it will be interesting to see where the team goes from here. Are they in test mode for 2015 or do they come out swinging trying to steal wins from Chasers. Regardless of what mode they’re in, Martinsville should still be a good track for him where in many ways it‘s a track that is about the driver.

No one is talking about Denny Hamlin as a viable Sprint Cup contender because of Keselowski, Gordon, Kevin Harvick and Joey Logano getting most of the spotlight, but he could punch himself a ticket into the Homestead race with a win this week and then care less about what happens in the next two races. Hamlin hails from Virginia and is a four time winner there including three straight from 2009-10. That was his last win and he’s raced there six times since. He looked extremely sluggish with a 19th-place finish in March in a car that was probably only the 30th best.

The hope here for Hamlin is that his Joe Gibbs Racing organization shows some urgency into giving him something he can win with like he’s had in the past. It should be a collaborative effort by all the JGR resources to make his car great again and give their driver a shot to win a championship. The same goes for teammate Matt Kenseth’s crew. If Hamlin doesn’t have a top-5 car at Martinsville, then the season is likely over for them.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #48 Jimmie Johnson (5/1)
2) #24 Jeff Gordon (5/1)
3) #11 Denny Hamlin (8/1)
4) #15 Clint Bowyer (15/1)
5) #4 Kevin Harvick (8/1)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Sharks (4-3) at Ducks (7-1)

With Corey Perry playing at an MVP level, the red-hot Anaheim Ducks are on the verge of their best start in eight years.

The San Jose Sharks, meanwhile, are headed the other direction as they look to avoid their worst slide in two seasons.

Given the way he's played against the visiting Sharks, Perry appears to have an excellent opportunity to continue his scoring surge Sunday night when the Ducks try to extend their seven-game winning streak.

Perry, who had a hat trick in Anaheim's season-opening loss at Pittsburgh, tallied three more in Wednesday's 4-1 home win over Buffalo before finishing with a goal and an assist in Friday's 4-1 victory over visiting Columbus.

The 2011 MVP has a league-best nine goals in his first eight games in the fastest start in franchise history.

'He certainly is feeling it right now,' coach Bruce Boudreau said. 'He's going to slow down eventually, and hopefully by that time, somebody else can pick up the slack.'

Perry may not be ready to cool off against the Sharks, having scored 13 times with 12 assists in his last 22 meetings. The right wing finished with two goals and five assists while helping Anaheim go 2-2-1 in last season's series.

The Ducks (7-1-0) won both matchups at Honda Center, improving to 9-3-0 at home versus San Jose since March 2010.

They're hoping to close out this five-game homestand by securing their best start since opening 12-0-4 in 2006. Last season, they also won seven straight after a season-opening loss at Colorado.

Ryan Getzlaf had a goal and an assist Friday, giving him five assists in his last three games. The captain also has two goals and six assists in his last five home matchups versus San Jose.

The Sharks hope to end Anaheim's run and get back in the win column after losing their fourth straight, 2-1 to visiting Buffalo on Saturday. San Jose was at least better defensively after allowing 23 goals in six games since opening with back-to-back shutouts.

'It's a tough stretch right now,' left wing Matt Nieto said. 'We played one of our better defensive games. We had a couple of slip-ups there but you can't be perfect. We need to put more pucks to the net.'

Since totaling 18 goals during a 4-0-1 start, the Sharks (4-4-1) have scored just eight times in their losing streak. Brent Burns tallied his first goal Saturday, giving him at least one point in all but two games.

Joe Pavelski, Logan Couture and Patrick Marleau each have team highs with four goals. Couture also led the way with four against the Ducks in last season's series.

After Alex Stalock started Saturday, Antti Niemi is expected to be back in net as San Jose looks to avoid its longest skid since an 0-4-3 slide in February 2013. He's given up nine goals in his last two defeats and is 1-4 with a 4.09 goals-against average in his last five starts in Anaheim.

The Ducks are likely to counter with Frederik Andersen after backup John Gibson faced just 17 shots Friday during one of the team's best defensive efforts of the season.

'That was more of a complete game than we've played in a while,' Boudreau said.

Andersen, who has posted a 1.32 GAA in his six starts, allowed six goals while losing a pair at San Jose last season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Inside the Stats - Week 8
By Marc Lawrence

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

Remember, it’s important to remember that all results are ATS (Against the Spread) in games played this season through Monday, Oct. 20, unless noted otherwise.

PENNZOIL PLAYS

It’s that time of the year when we ferret out favorites on the football card each we that have been out-gained in each of their last three games.

We call them ‘leaking oil’ favorites for reasons that are self-explanatory. Here are this week’s potential Pennzoil favorites.

NFL: Tampa Bay and Tennessee.

LOOKING INSIDE THE STATS

Once again there were an abundance of teams who won phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but were out-gained by 100 or more yards in their last game. Those teams playing this week include:

NFL: New England Patriots and St. Louis Rams.

On the flip side, these are the teams playing this week who lost phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but out-gained their opponent by 100 or more yards in their last game:

NFL: New York Jets and Seattle Seahawks.

STAYING PERFECT

We find the following teams perfect ITS (Inside the Stats) this football season. You might be surprised at who you find on these lists.

Note: Only one team in the NFL is perfect ITS in every game this season, Tampa Bay. The Bucs have been outgained in all six of their games.

HOT TRENDS

From my weekly NFL column in the USA TODAY SPORTS WEEKLY, here are some of the hottest trends surrounding this week’s card from my all-knowing database:

The Atlanta Falcons are 14-1 SU and 13-1-1 ATS before back-to-back away games.

The Carolina Panthers are 10-0 ATS at home off a double-digit SU loss when hosting NFC West division opponents.

The Miami Dolphins are 1-6 SU and ATS as favorites with a .500 record.

The San Diego Chargers are 8-0-1 ATS as visitors the last nine games at Mile High Stadium in Denver.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six meetings with the Minnesota Vikings.

Dallas Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett is 9-0 SU but 1-8 ATS as a division home favorite of seven or more points.

New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is 5-0 SU and ATS at home in his NFL career after playing a Thursday game.

Oakland Raiders head coach Tony Sparano is 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS as a road ‘dog versus an opponent off a SU loss.

New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees is 10-1 SU and ATS at home in non-division games off a SU non-division loss.

STAT OF THE WEEK

The New Orleans Saints are 22-1 SU and 20-3 ATS in their last twenty-three home games under Sean Payton.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Tech Trends - Week 8
By Bruce Marshall

Sunday, Oct. 26

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

DETROIT at ATLANTA (at Wembley Stadium, London)...Lions have won and covered last two on road after 6-15-1 previous 22 away. Falcs no covers last 4 or 5 of last 6 TY. Lions "under" 8-2 last 10 since late 2013. "Under" and slight to Lions, based on recent Detroit trends.


MINNESOTA at TAMPA BAY...Vikes "under" 5-2 last seven. Bucs 0-3 vs. line at home this season and no covers last four at Raymond James. Slight to Vikings and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.


CHICAGO at NEW ENGLAND...Bears are 3-1 SU and vs. line away TY. They're also "over" 15-7-1 since LY. Belichick now "over" four straight in 2014 and "over" 49-21 last 70 in reg. season.. "Over," based on "totals" trends.


ST. LOUIS at KANSAS CITY...Chiefs have covered last four TY and now get home after playing 4 of first 6 away. Though Andy Reid only 3-7 vs. spread at Arrowhead since last season. Chiefs also "over" 8-4 last 12 since late 2013. Rams "over" last three TY. "Over," based on ;totals" trends.


SEATTLE at CAROLINA...Hawks 11-4-1 vs. spread last 15 away from CenturyLink and 7-14-2 overall vs. number since 2012. Cam "over" last four in 2014. "Over" and Seahawks, based on "totals" and team trends.


BUFFALO at NY JETS...Rex no SU wins last six TY but did break four-game spread losing streak in game at Belichick. Jets 0-4 vs. line at home in 2014, though host team has won and covered last four in series with Bills. Buffalo "under" 6-1 this season. "Under," based on Bills "totals" trends.


MIAMI at JACKSONVILLE...Jax 2-8-1 last 11 vs. spread at EverBank. Dolphins no covers in three tries as visiting chalk for Philbin, though they are 9-4 last 13 on board. Dolphins, based on team trends.


HOUSTON at TENNESSEE...Texans have covered 5 of last 6 vs. Titans and "overs" 5-2 last seven in series. Texans and "over," based on series trends.


BALTIMORE at CINCINNATI...Ravens have covered 5 of last 6 TY. Bengals no covers last three TY. Slight to Ravens, based on recent trends.


PHILADELPHIA at ARIZONA...Arians 11-3-1 last 15 vs. spread. Also 7-3-1 last 11 vs. number at home. Cards, based on team trends.


INDIANAPOLIS at PITTSBURGH...Colts have covered last four on road in regular season, "over" 6-2-1 last nine since late 2013. Steel "over" 6-1 last seven at Heinz Field. Colts and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.


OAKLAND at CLEVELAND...Raiders "over" 9-4-1 last 14 since mid 2013. "Over," based on "totals" trends.


GREEN BAY at NEW ORLEANS...Sean Payton finally fails to cover at home vs. Bucs after 17-0-1 Superdome spread run, though Payton still 19-0 SU last 19 as host. Pack over" 6-1 TY and 9-1 last ten reg.-season games. But Pack just 1-6 last 7 as road dog. "Over" and Saints, based on "totals" and team trends.


Monday, Oct. 27

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

WASHINGTON at DALLAS...Dallas has won last 6 SU but is only 2-2 vs. line at home TY and 8-15 vs. spread last 23 as host. Skins have covered 7 of last 8 meetings, but no covers last four in 2014. And Skins just 2-7 last nine as road dog. Slight to Cowboys, based on recent trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Week 8 line watch: Bettors should be quick to back Chiefs
By ART ARONSON

Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

St. Louis Rams at Kansas City Chiefs (-6)

Would you bet on a team the week after it plays in the Super Bowl? That’s essentially what you would be doing if you lay cash on the Rams in this one. St. Louis used every tactical weapon in its arsenal to take down the Seahawks, and you have to wonder how much petrol will be left in the tank when they travel to Kansas City this coming Sunday.

The Chiefs are coming off the high of a solid win in San Diego that kept them in the playoff conversation, and they are a solid 4-2 against the spread. Kansas City will no doubt do everything it can to run the ball against the Rams’ 28th-ranked rush defense, so all the arrows are pointing toward the Chiefs in this one. Jump before the line goes up a half-point.


Spread to wait on

Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) at Arizona Cardinals

This is the early game of year in the NFL, with both teams at 5-1. The Eagles have been pasting teams at home, but have actually been outscored by opponents in their two home games. Still, early money is on the Eagles, who are a national team and always attract play.

There is a possibility that this one could move to 2-points as heavy money on Philly from the East continues to flood the offshores. Arizona is 5-1 and starting to take of advantage of dysfunction in San Francisco and Seattle to make a real run at the NFC West.


Total to watch

Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons (In London) (47)

These are the worst of times in Atlanta, where the 2-5 Falcons are basically out of it already in the NFC South and giving up gobs of points, despite a benign schedule so far. Fans have been clamoring for Mike Smith’s head on a platter, and there is already talk about bringing in Rex Ryan to fix what ails the defense, which is just about everything.

The Lions aren’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard every week, but they’ve been winning with their league-best defense that allows only 15 points a game. The Falcons will want to run the ball to stay competitive and keep the fans off their backs, so a long look at an under play is needed here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Line Moves - Week 8
By Matty Simo

LAS VEGAS – It appears that the biggest NFL line move in Week 8 will come in an intriguing AFC North matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals, two teams clearly heading in opposite directions. The public has stated their case during early betting action this week, backing the Ravens and making them small road favorites in this key divisional game after the Bengals had opened at -3.

The Wynn sportsbook in Las Vegas waited longer than most others around town to swap the role of favorite from Cincinnati to Baltimore, with the line finally going the other direction on Friday. Johnny Avello, The Wynn’s Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, said there are a few factors going in favor of the Ravens, who will likely face a Bengals team without wide receiver A.J. Green due to a lingering toe injury that has forced him to miss the past two games. Green had six catches for 131 yards, including a 77-yard touchdown, in the first meeting at Baltimore in Week 1, resulting in a 23-16 Cincinnati victory as a 1-point road underdog.

“A.J. Green has been downgraded to doubtful, so I don’t expect him to play,” Avello said. “That’s only a piece of it because I think he was expected to be out. When they went up to New England, the offense looked awful. And then they play Carolina at home to a tie in a game they were supposed to win, their defense gave up a bunch. Then they go to Indianapolis, they get shut out.

“In the first three games, they were giving up about 10 points a game. In the last three games, they’re giving up about 35. So not only has the offense sputtered, but the defense has just collapsed. It’s just a move based on who’s playing well and who’s not. Baltimore’s playing as well as anybody in the NFL.”

Another solid line move involves the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, who will be looking to avoid a three-game winning streak when they visit the Carolina Panthers on Sunday. Seattle opened as a 4-point favorite at The Wynn and was up to -5.5 on Friday afternoon.

“Slight move, there’s some early money on them,” Avello said of the Seahawks. “It’s probably based on the team losing two in a row against a Carolina team that’s really hard to figure out. I thought this (Panthers) team was going to be a dead issue this year, then they came out of the box playing pretty good. At home, they’ve played pretty good football though.









Another solid line move involves the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, who will be looking to avoid a three-game winning streak when they visit the Carolina Panthers on Sunday. Seattle opened as a 4-point favorite at The Wynn and was up to -5.5 on Friday afternoon.

“Slight move, there’s some early money on them,” Avello said of the Seahawks. “It’s probably based on the team losing two in a row against a Carolina team that’s really hard to figure out. I thought this (Panthers) team was going to be a dead issue this year, then they came out of the box playing pretty good. At home, they’ve played pretty good football though.

“The question is, is Seattle going to rebound because they’re a good football team and just had a couple of poor weeks, or is this team not the same team as last year? I’ll tell you what, they’re putting themselves in a very difficult spot, you get a couple of games behind in that division, it might be hard to catch up.”

Sunday’s primetime matchup between the New Orleans Saints and Green Bay Packers could be the most heavily bet game of Week 8, according to Avello. The Saints actually opened as 1.5-point home underdogs against the Packers at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook before coming back at -2.5. At The Wynn, New Orleans opened -1 and has since moved to -2 with the total jumping from 54.5 to 55.5.

“That’s a difficult game because you’re playing one of the better teams in the NFL, and you haven’t showed well,” Avello said. “As far as New Orleans goes, luckily they’re in a division that they’re a game back, and they can get in (to first) with a win here and then beating Carolina.

“The team’s just having a rough go at it right now, losing close games too except the Dallas game, they kind of got buried. But all the other games were very, very close. The team didn’t lose a game at home last year, and so far this year they’re 2-0.”

During the Saints’ 10-game home winning streak, they are 8-1-1 against the spread. Meanwhile, Green Bay is just 1-7 straight-up and ATS in its last eight games as a road underdog. While the side may be too tough to call in this one due to the current form of each team, Avello believes one trend will continue. The total has gone OVER in nine of the past 10 meetings, which are averaging 60 points per game.

“This total’s going to fly over,” he said. “There’s no way anybody’s going to bet this under.”


Las Vegas SuperBook - Week 8 Betting Moves

Rotation Team Open Current Move

251 LIONS 4 3.5 -0.5
252 FALCONS X X X
253 VIKINGS X X X
254 BUCCANEERS 2 2.5 0.5
255 BEARS X X X
256 PATRIOTS 7 6 -1
257 RAMS X X X
258 CHIEFS 6 7 1
259 SEAHAWKS 3.5 5 1.5
260 PANTHERS X X X
261 BILLS X X X
262 JETS 2.5 3 0.5
263 DOLPHINS 4.5 6 1.5
264 JAGUARS X X X
265 TEXANS 1 3 2
266 TITANS X X X
267 RAVENS X 1 X
268 BENGALS 3 X -4
269 EAGLES X X X
270 CARDINALS 2.5 2.5 0
271 COLTS 2.5 3 0.5
272 STEELERS X X X
273 RAIDERS X X X
274 BROWNS 7 6.5 -0.5
275 PACKERS 1.5 X -4
276 SAINTS X 2.5 X
277 REDSKINS X X X
278 COWBOYS 8 9.5 1.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sharp Moves - Week 8
By Mike Rose

We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 8!

(Rotation #270) Arizona -2.5 – The oddsmakers are sort of insinuating here that the Cardinals and the Eagles are the same team, and we don't buy that. Philadelphia's 5-1 just doesn't look the same as Arizona's 5-1, especially when you consider the fact that the Eagles have gotten the job done with so many defensive and special teams touchdowns, while the Cards have gotten there by having to use QB Drew Stanton for a while instead of QB Carson Palmer. It's a bit concerning that the Eagles are coming off of their bye week, a situation they have been awfully good in over the course of the last several years, but the home field advantage for Arizona cannot be overlooked.

Opening Line: Arizona -2.5
Current Line: Arizona -2.5
Public Betting Percentage: 62% on Philadelphia

(Rotation #272) Pittsburgh +3 – The Steelers are on a short week, and they didn't exactly look good against the Texans on Monday Night Football even though they did walk away with a big time win. The Colts meanwhile, are coming off of a dominating 27-0 win over the Bengals in which they put together one of the best complete performances we have seen this season out of any team. It's a nice spot for the hosts, though. Pittsburgh is always going to be a really tough place to play football. On top of that, keep a close eye on Mother Nature in this one. Temperatures at kickoff are expected to be in the 40s at best, and they'll dip into the 30s with breezy winds all game long. With WR Reggie Wayne potentially missing out on this game, that could take away one major weapon for QB Andrew Luck. The way we see it, the Steelers will have every opportunity to win this game in spite of the fact that 80 percent of the general public just doesn't see it that way.

Opening Line: Pittsburgh +3
Current Line: Pittsburgh +3
Public Betting Percentage: 80% on Indianapolis

(Rotation #276) New Orleans -2 – There's every reason to believe that the Saints can win this game, not the least of which is the fact that they almost never lose at home and are probably playing to save their season. In fact, it looks a lot like the spot the Packers were in a few weeks ago when QB Aaron Rodgers was telling his fans to R-E-L-A-X. TE Jimmy Graham returned to the lineup last week, and though he was completely ineffective, he should be in a lot better spot to produce here against a Packers “D” that has its warts. QB Drew Brees is under the gun here, and the fact that there's a real possibility that he will come into this game as an underdog is shocking to us.

Opening Line: New Orleans -2
Current Line: New Orleans -1.5
Public Betting Percentage: 82% on Green Bay

 

[Bobbyhill]

How bout anybody from Doc Sports tia!!Its all we need!!

 

[deceptikhanh]

dr. bob anyone ?!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Talk - Week 8
By Chris David

Week 7 Recap

The ‘under’ produced an 8-7 record in Week 7 and those results included three ‘over’ tickets in the primetime games. Including the Denver-San Diego outcome from this past Thursday, we’ve had 25 games played under the lights and the ‘over’ has gone 21-4 (84%) in these contests. I asked the Westgate SuperBook Director Jay Kornegay about this current 'over' run and wanted to know if his Las Vegas based shop would adjust.

He answered, “It’s business as usual. We know the general public will be betting the over on these games. If the sharps bet it over, we might move it a little more aggressively knowing the public will also be on that same side.”

It’s more than likely that things will balance out in the second-half of the season. For those keeping track, the ‘over’ went 28-22 in 50 primetime games last season.

Through seven weeks of the regular season, the ‘over’ has gone 56-50.

Back to London (*Early Game – 9:30 a.m. ET*)

In Week 4 of the regular season the Dolphins dropped the Raiders 38-14 from Wembley Stadium in London. The combined 52 points easily went ‘over’ the closing number of 41.

In that week’s installment of “Total Talk” we mentioned the current total trend in the NFL International Series and we’ll bring it to your attention again.

Including the Miami-Oakland outcome, the ‘over’ has now cashed in four consecutive games played from London.


NFL International Series History (2007-2014)

Year Matchup Total Result
2007 New York Giants 13 Miami 10 Under 48
2008 New Orleans 37 San Diego 32 Over 45.5
2009 New England 35 Tampa Bay 7 Under 45
2010 San Francisco 24 Denver 16 Under 41.5
2011 Chicago 24 Tampa Bay 18 Under 44
2012 New England 45 St. Louis 7 Over 46
2013 Minnesota 34 Pittsburgh 27 Over 41
2013 San Francisco 42 Jacksonville 10 Over 41
2014 Miami Dolphins 38 Oakland Raiders 14 Over 41.5
2014 Detroit Lions vs. Atlanta Falcons -
2014 Dallas Cowboys vs. Jacksonville Jaguars -

This Sunday, Detroit and Atlanta will play the second of three NFL games in London this season. The total on this game is hovering between 46 and 47 points and this looks like a pass for me. Atlanta’s offense is struggling lately and I can’t see them moving the ball consistently against Detroit’s defense. Despite facing the Falcons dismal defense (412 YPG, 28.4 PPG), the Lions attack is limited without the duties of WR Calvin Johnson and RB Reggie Bush. Atlanta has watched the ‘under’ cash in three straight plus the ‘under’ has gone 5-2 for Detroit this season, which includes a 3-0 mark on the road.

Next Stop: New England

This particular segment has become increasingly popular and I’m more than glad to touch on the “Thursday Night Total” system on a weekly basis, especially when it wins.

For those of you reading “Total Talk” for the first time, the total angle that’s been profitable is very simple to follow. All you have to do is find out who played at home the previous Thursday and play the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue.

Dating back to last season, the ‘over’ has gone 19-3-1 (86%) in these situations.

This week, the angle applies to the New England-Chicago matchup since the Patriots defeated the Jets 27-25 at home on Thursday in Week 7.

The number has already jumped from 49 to as high as 51 at some shops. The Patriots have seen the ‘over’ go 4-0 in their last four games and Chicago has been better on the road, averaging 26.5 PPG.

New England’s defense is banged up but the unit has been respectable (22 PPG) this season, especially against the pass (208 YPG). Chicago is 1-2 against the weaker trio of the AFC East this season and the defense has allowed 27, 19 and 23 points in those games. Stepping up in class would make you believe the Bears unit could be in trouble Sunday.

Keep in mind that this system will remain in Foxborough for Week 9 since the Broncos visit the Patriots and Denver just played this past Thursday at home.

National TV Matchup

The ‘over’ has cashed in the last two nationally televised games o Sunday, both involving the Cowboys.

Prior to these results, the ‘under’ had gone 5-0 in the late afternoon spot. This week’s national television game heads to Western Pennsylvania as the Steelers host the Colts on CBS. The total opened 48 ½ and is steadily creeping up.

Pittsburgh is a tough team to figure out, especially on offense. The Steelers put up 30 points last week in their win against the Texans but 14 of those points were gifted. Pittsburgh has watched the ‘over’ go 4-3 this season, 3-0 at home.

Indianapolis is ranked first in total offense (452 YPG) and second in scoring (30.9 PPG) and those numbers improve on the road (464 YPG, 33.7 PPG). The Colts have gone 3-0 to the ‘over’ away from home and they face a Steelers defense that has surrendered 27, 27 and 23 points at home to quarterbacks named Hoyer, Glennon and Fitzpatrick.

Good Luck (pun intended) on Sunday!

Off the Bye

Teams off the bye have seen the ‘over’ go 7-2 in their games and the one observation I’m seeing is that the rest has helped the offensive units.

Last week, the New Orleans and Kansas City both scored 23 points and those results were on the road.

In Week 6, Miami (24) and Oakland (28) were productive off the bye.

Week 5 saw Cleveland (29), St. Louis (28), Arizona (20), Denver (41) Cincinnati (17) and Seattle (27) post quality efforts with rest.

Based on those numbers, we’ve seen teams off rest average 28.8 PPG this season. At home off rest, the number increases to 31 PPG.

This Sunday, we have two teams playing off rest, one at home and one on the road.

Tampa Bay vs. Minnesota
Philadelphia at Arizona

Divisional Matchups

Buffalo at N.Y. Jets: This is the lowest total (40) on the board and it’s not surprising. The Bills (19.3 PPG) and Jets (17.3 PPG) are ranked 27th and 28th in scoring and they both have Top 10 defensive units (YPG). Buffalo has watched the ‘under’ go 6-1 in its first seven games and it’s also banged up offensively. The ‘over’ is on a 4-1 run in this series.

Baltimore at Cincinnati: These teams met in Week 1 and the Bengals captured a 23-16 road win. The combined 37 points fell ‘under’ the closing total of 43.5 but points were left off the board in this game. Cincinnati has scored 24, 33 and 37 at home this season, which isn’t a surprise. Last year, the Bengals averaged 31.6 PPG in nine games on their turf.

Houston at Tennessee: Oddsmakers sent out a total of 43.5 on this matchup and the number has dropped to 41.5. The Titans are starting rookie Zach Mettenberger at quarterback, which could have you leaning ‘under’ in the spot. Especially when you realize Houston just faced Romo, Luck and Roethlisberger. Titans are 5-2 to the ‘under’ this season.

Washington at Dallas: (See Below)

Under the Lights

Green Bay at New Orleans: Highest total on the board (55) in Week 8 and it’s very hard to argue for the ‘under’ in this spot unless you’re going against the consensus. The Packers have seen the ‘over’ go 6-1 this season and that includes a run of four straight tickets. Green Bay has also covered all four games during the current run, which has crippled bookmakers. The Saints have also been a strong ‘over’ (5-1) team this season and it’s offensive tendencies at home cannot be ignored. The last three meetings between the pair have seen combined points of 80, 76 and most recently 55 in their 2012 encounter.

Washington at Dallas: This game opened at 51 and that number has dropped to 49 ½ as of Saturday, which doesn’t surprise me. Dallas has the firepower to light up the scoreboard but the same can’t be said for Washington, especially with Colt McCoy at QB. The Cowboys and Redskins have both seen the ‘over’ go 4-3 this season but this series has watched the ‘under’ go 3-0 in their last three encounters. If you’re looking for a possible ‘over’ angle, you could point to Washington’s defense. The unit has allowed a combined 82 points (Eagles - 37, Giants - 45) in their first two matchups against NFC East squads.

Fearless Predictions

Week 7 didn’t go as planned and if it wasn’t for the gimmick teaser bet, it would’ve been dreadful. The deficit is $300 as we near the midway point of the season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Chicago-New England 50.5

Best Under: Miami-Jacksonville 42.5

Best Team Total: Over Tampa Bay 22.5

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 41.5 Chicago-New England
Over 40 Indianapolis-Pittsburgh
Under 51.5 Miami-Jacksonville

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 8 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers

Bears at Patriots (-6, 51) – 1:00 PM EST

Week 7 Recap:
-- This Chicago team is very hard to figure out, up one week and down the other. The bad Bears came out last Sunday in a 27-14 home loss to the Dolphins as three-point favorites. Chicago fell behind, 14-0 at halftime, as the Bears own a dreadful 0-3 record at Soldier Field this season.
-- The Patriots keep rolling along following their third straight win, holding off the Jets last Thursday night, 27-25. New England failed to cover for the second time as a home favorite this season, but the Pats have won five of its past six games since losing at Miami in the season opener.

Previous meeting: New England crushed Chicago at Soldier Field in 2010 by a 36-7 count as three-point road favorites. The Patriots blew the game open by putting up 26 second quarter points, while Tom Brady threw for 369 yards. The last time the Bears visited New England, the Patriots held off the Bears, 17-13 in 2006.

What to watch for: Chicago’s best efforts have been put together on the road this season, winning three of four games on the highway (3-1 ATS). The Bears are 3-1 to the ‘over’ away from the Windy City, while going 5-0 SU/ATS in its past five road games against the AFC. The Patriots have riding a four-game ‘over’ streak, while going 8-8 ATS since the start of 2012 as a home favorite of at least six points.

Seahawks (-5, 44 ½) at Panthers – 1:00 PM EST

Week 7 Recap:
-- The Seahawks are in the midst of their first two-game losing streak since midway through the 2012 season after getting tripped up at St. Louis, 28-26 as 6 ½-point road favorites. The Seattle defense has allowed 58 points in the past two losses, but the Seahawks yielded just 275 yards to the Rams last Sunday.
-- The Panthers were blitzed out of the gate in a 38-17 drubbing at Green Bay, falling behind 21-0 after the first quarter. Carolina failed to cover as 6 ½-point underdogs, snapping a two-game ATS winning streak. The Panthers’ defense has allowed at least 37 points in four of the past five games, hitting the ‘over’ five straight times.

Previous meeting: The Seahawks topped the Panthers in last season’s opener, 12-7 at Bank of America Stadium. Russell Wilson found Jermaine Kearse on a 43-yard touchdown strike in the fourth quarter to give Seattle the win and cover as three-point favorites. Seattle has won in each of the past two visits to Charlotte, while limiting the Panthers to only 19 points in those contests.

What to watch for: In spite of last week’s defeat, Seattle owns an 8-4 ATS record in the past 12 opportunities as a road favorite (1-2 ATS this season). Since the start of last season, the Panthers have compiled a 9-2-1 ATS mark at home, but Carolina is 4-8 ATS as an underdog in this stretch.

Ravens (-2, 45 ½) at Bengals – 1:00 PM EST

Week 7 Recap:
-- The Ravens are quietly rolling atop the AFC North at 5-2, as Baltimore routed a beat-up Atlanta squad, 29-7 as seven-point home favorites. Baltimore has taken care of business against NFC foes, posting a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS record, while winning each of those games by at least 22 points apiece.
-- The Bengals aren’t falling apart at the seams, but the team that was once 3-0 has stumbled to an 0-2-1 record the past three weeks. Cincinnati was blanked at Indianapolis, 27-0, as the Bengals’ defense has allowed 107 points in the last three games.

Previous meeting: The Bengals took care of the Ravens in Baltimore to open the season, 23-16 as one-point underdogs. Cincinnati built a 15-0 halftime lead on five field goals, but the Ravens rallied for 16 unanswered points to take a one-point fourth quarter advantage. Andy Dalton connected with A.J. Green on a 77-yard touchdown pass to give Cincinnati the lead for good, snapping a four-game skid at Baltimore that dated back to 2009.

What to watch for: Cincinnati has won five of its past six home divisional matchups, while going 2-0 SU/ATS last season as a home underdog. The Ravens have dropped four of their last five road games within the AFC North, while playing at Cincinnati outside of Week 17 for the first time since 2010.

Eagles at Cardinals (-1 ½, 48) – 4:05 PM EST

Week 7 Recap:
-- The Eagles rested comfortably after blowing out the Giants at home in Week 6 by a 27-0 count. Philadelphia improved to 4-0 at Lincoln Financial Field, as the Eagles racked up 448 yards of offense to pick up their second divisional win of the season.
-- The Cardinals cruised past the Raiders as 3 ½-point road favorites, 24-13 to move to 5-1 on the season. Arizona has limited four of six opponents to 17 points or fewer, as the Cardinals have won five of their past seven games on the road dating back to last season.

Previous meeting: Philadelphia jumped out to a 24-7 advantage over Arizona last December, before the Cardinals eventually lost 24-21. The late rally helped out Arizona backers, as the Cardinals cashed as 3 ½-point underdogs. Arizona owns a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS mark against Philadelphia in the past four matchups, which includes a home victory over the Eagles to win the NFC Championship in 2008.

What to watch for: Under Chip Kelly, the Eagles have put together a 7-3 record on the road, including a Week 2 victory at Indianapolis as three-point ‘dogs. The Cardinals are 9-2 in the past 11 games at University of Phoenix Stadium, but are just 4-6 ATS as a home favorite.

Colts (-3 ½, 49) at Steelers – 4:25 PM EST

Week 7 Recap:
-- The Colts started the season at 0-2, but Indianapolis has stormed back with five straight victories, including a 27-0 rout of Cincinnati. In all five of those wins, the Colts have covered each time, while scoring 27 points in six straight games. Since losing to the Dolphins in Week 2 of the 2013 season, the Colts are nearly automatic at home with a 9-2 record the past 11 games.
-- The Steelers erased an early 14-3 deficit against the Texans, scoring 21 points in the final two minutes of the half to knock off Houston, 30-23. Pittsburgh has now alternated wins and losses in its seven games this season, while going 1-2 ATS at Heinz Field.

Previous meeting: In the disastrous season of 2011 for Indianapolis, the Colts actually hung around with the Steelers as 10 ½-point home underdogs in a 23-20 loss. The Colts are making just their second visit to Heinz Field since 2003, knocking off the Steelers as short ‘dogs, 24-20 in 2008.

What to watch for: Indianapolis has been automatic as a road favorite since Andrew Luck took over in 2012, winning and covering all seven times in the role. Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers own a 5-1 ATS record as a home underdog, while covering and winning against Detroit and Cincinnati last season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SNF - Packers at Saints

GREEN BAY PACKERS (5-2) at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (2-4)
Kickoff: Sunday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Line & Total: New Orleans -1.5, Total: 55.5

The Saints look to get back on track Sunday night when they host the surging Packers.

Green Bay ripped off its fourth straight win (SU and ATS) when it cruised to a 38-17 victory over the Panthers at home last week. Meanwhile, New Orleans allowed two touchdowns in the final 3:38 of the fourth quarter last Sunday to lose 24-23 to the Lions.

These teams last met on Sept. 30, 2012, when the Packers beat the Saints 28-27 as 7.5-point favorites at Lambeau Field. These teams have split wins SU and ATS when playing in New Orleans since 1992, and overall, the Packers are 5-3 SU (4-4 ATS) in this series during that span. Seven of those eight meetings have gone Over the total.

Green Bay is 6-0 ATS in October games over the past two seasons, but New Orleans is 6-1 ATS after a loss by six points or less and 8-2 ATS as a home favorite of seven points or less over the past three seasons.

The Packers could be short-handed in the secondary for this game with CB Sam Shields (knee) and S Morgan Burnett (calf) both listed as questionable. The Saints are more concerned about the health of some offensive stars. TE Jimmy Graham (shoulder) has been limited in practice and remains questionable for Sunday night, while RB Pierre Thomas (ribs) is out 2-to-3 weeks and RB Khiry Robinson is dealing with a forearm injury.

Green Bay has been on a roll recently, winning four straight games and five of its past six contests. QB Aaron Rodgers (1,674 pass yards, 18 TD, 1 INT) is looking like a serious MVP candidate at this point in the season. He’ll now get to face a secondary that has really struggled this year.

New Orleans is allowing 270.5 yards per game through the air (28th in NFL) and things won’t suddenly get easier for them with Rodgers in town. He will frequently be looking for top WRs Jordy Nelson (47 rec, 712 yards, 6 TD) and Randall Cobb (35 rec, 452 yards, 8 TD) in this game. Both of these receivers have caught at least one touchdown in each of the past four games.

One good sign for the Packers is that RB Eddie Lacy (369 rush yards, 4 TD) is starting to turn his season around. After failing to find the end zone in the first three games of the year, Lacy has now scored four touchdowns over the past four games. They’ll need him to be effective going forward in order to open the field more for Rodgers.

This Green Bay defense is allowing only 214.9 passing yards per game (6th in NFL) but has surrendered a miserable 147.9 rushing yards per game (31st in NFL). As long as the Pack is able to slow down Drew Brees, they should have a chance.

Saints QB Drew Brees (1,916 yards, 11 TD, 7 INT) seemingly had his team in a can’t-lose situation last Sunday, but a late interception allowed the Lions to steal a win. Brees now faces the Packers in a must-win matchup on Sunday, but he’s been very good against Green Bay in his career individually. In five games against the Packers, Brees has thrown for 380.8 passing YPG, 14 TD and just 2 INT.

He’ll look to target TE Jimmy Graham (34 rec, 376 yards, 3 TD) often, but the All-Pro tight end was dealing with a lot of shoulder pain in last week’s loss to the Lions. If Graham isn’t feeling healthy enough to contribute, WR Marques Colston (21 rec, 359 yards, 1 TD) will be the beneficiary. Last game, Colston hauled in six of his 11 targets for a total of 111 yards. He has now been targeted 27 times over the past three weeks.

RB Travaris Cadet (16 rec, 134 yards, 1 TD) will step in as Pierre Thomas’ (shoulder) replacement as the Saints’ pass-catching running back. Cadet had six catches for 51 yards against the Lions and should be in for an even bigger workload on Sunday.

This game will, however, come down to the play of New Orleans’ defense. They’ve allowed 31.0 PPG over the past three weeks and will need to find a way to keep Aaron Rodgers from throwing all over them.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL roundup: Bucs sign McCoy to 7-year extension
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed defensive tackle Gerald McCoy to a seven-year contract extension Saturday.

The team announced that the deal makes McCoy the highest-paid defensive tackle in the NFL. According to reports, the deal is worth $98 million with $51.5 million guaranteed.

McCoy, 26, was in the final year of his contract. The new deal is through 2021.

"From the moment (coach) Lovie (Smith) and I arrived here, we knew it was vital for us to keep Gerald in Tampa Bay long term as one of the cornerstones of our franchise," general manager Jason Licht said in a statement. "With the backing of the Glazer family, we were able to accomplish that. On the field, Gerald is one of the best players in the National Football League, who has been extremely productive and will be for years to come."

The Bucs made McCoy the No. 3 overall pick in the 2010 draft. He has started all 56 games that he has played, earning trips to the Pro Bowl in each of the past two seasons. He also received first-team Associated Press All-Pro honors in 2013 when had career highs with 9.5 sacks, 50 tackles and four pass breakups.


---The Detroit Lions suspended defensive tackle C.J. Mosley and sent him home from London on Saturday, the day before they were to play the Atlanta Falcons at Wembley Stadium.

The Lions said Mosley has been suspended for two weeks for a violation of team rules and conduct detrimental to the team.

Detroit promoted safety Jerome Couplin from the practice squad to take Mosley's place.

As the third defensive tackle behind starters Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley, Mosley has 11 tackles and 2.5 sacks this season.


---Tennessee Titans running back Shonn Greene was arrested Friday night on several driving violations.

Greene's charges included resisting a stop when approached by police in Franklin, Tenn.

Greene was also charged with a handicap parking violation, driving on a revoked/suspended license and reckless driving.

Greene reportedly parked in a handicap parking space, but went back into his car and sped off after being approached by an officer. He sped away again when police caught up with him.

According to The Tennessean, Franklin police got in touch with the Titans and arranged for Greene to turn himself in on Friday around 9 p.m. He posted a $2,000 bond and was released at 10:38 p.m.



---The Miami Dolphins activated pass rusher Dion Jordan for their game Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

To make room on the 53-man roster, the Dolphins waived wide receiver Damian Williams.

Jordan, the team's first-round pick in 2013, just finished serving a six-game suspension for violations of the NFL's substance-abuse policy.



---San Diego Chargers have two injured cornerbacks in the aftermath of Thursday's 35-21 loss to the Denver Broncos.

Jahleel Addae has a concussion while rookie Jason Verrett has a shoulder injury.

Addae hit the turf after his first tackle of the game and appeared to go into convulsions after another hit in the third quarter. Addae, a second-year player, said after the game that he passed the NFL's concussion protocol. However, the team said late Friday that he was diagnosed with a concussion.

According to NFL.com, Verrett is scheduled to see a specialist next week to get a diagnosis on the shoulder.



---The San Francisco 49ers placed center Daniel Kilgore and cornerback Chris Cook on injured reserve and signed safety Bubba Ventrone to a one-year deal.

Kilgore, a fifth-round draft pick in 2011, has played in 40 NFL games over the past four seasons. All seven of his starts occurred this year. The 26-year-old played collegiately at Appalachian State.

Cook, 27, has three tackles and one pass breakup in six games this season. He also has two stops on special teams.


---The Seattle Seahawks placed fullback Derrick Coleman on injured reserve and signed wide receiver Phil Bates from the practice squad to the 53-man roster.

Coleman, who broke a foot during pregame warmups last Sunday, had season-ending surgery on Wednesday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Where the action is: Sunday's biggest NFL Week 8 line moves
By ANDREW AVERY

Week 8 of the NFL schedule sees the league return to London, England where the struggling Atlanta Falcons face the Detroit Lions in an especially early (9:30 am ET) game. But there a few others on the board that have seen some big line moves - including some heavy sharp action - leading into Sunday's action.

We look at some of the biggest line moves as Sunday draws near, and talk to Michael Stewart about why those odds are moving and where they could end up come kickoff:

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals - Open: -2.5, Move: Pick, Move +2

The Bengals have struggled mightily since their bye week (Week 4), posting an 0-3 record against the spread. Money has been on the Ravens since post adjusting the line 4.5 points at the time of publication. With the heavy movement and sharp action behind the Ravens, oddsmakers are quick to admit a wrong original number.

"We opened the Bengals a 2.5-point favorite at home versus the Ravens, and since hanging that line it’s been all Ravens money so far," Stewart tells Covers. We eventually went to pick’em and eventually making the Ravens a 1-point favorite. That really didn’t slow down the money and pushed this line out even further on the Ravens to -2 -115. Bottom line, our opening number was flat out wrong on the Bengals. With 70 percent of the action on the Ravens, it’s one of our bigger decisions going into tomorrow."

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers - Open: +4.5, Move: +5.5, Move: +6

Sportsbooks opened Seattle -4.5 being on the road for back-to-back weeks. The Seahawks often times looked flat at St. Louis one week ago, but bettors like them in this sport to bounce back somewhat convincingly. Stewart believes that sharp bettors may just come back to support the dog prior to kickoff.

We thought 4.5 points was enough to at least attract some action on the Panthers, but it really wasn’t as all the early money hammered a Seattle team off two-straight losses" Stewart says. "I expect the wiseguys to come in on the Panthers at some point as there’s tremendous value taking the points with this Panthers team. If we don’t see any wise guys support on the Panther’s, then we’ll tick this game up another ½ point but we won’t get to 7 and take a chance of getting middled or sided on the game."

Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints - Open: Pick, Move: -1.5, Move: -1

Carbon opened this NFC matchup as a Pick in an attempt to gain some betting support on the road team. However, sharp action came in on the Saints at that Pick'em line and forced the book to adjust to -1 and, eventually, -1.5. But being the Packers, public money continues to flood in on them and force a move back to -1.

"This will be the biggest bet game of the weekend for us, so if the early public action is on the Packers that means all the late public action will be on them as well as all parlays," says Stewart. "So while we respect the sharp money, at this point the liability that is mounting on the Packers is very concerning at this point and I wouldn’t be surprised if we go back to a Pick."

As for the total here, it's the highest on the board Sunday but that hasn't stopped bettors. It's been well documented that the Over has been a cash cow for primetime matchups this season and even though the number opened at 55.5, it's moved up one point since post.

"The Saints' defense has been torched this season and while the Packers have improved, they’ve taken on some shaky offenses which has 'padded' their stats. While the primetime Over trend is an anomaly in my opinion, it’s still something we need to be aware of and consider because we know our betting public is doing the same."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 8
By JASON LOGAN - WRITER

Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 8:

Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 42)

Vikings’ poor protection vs. Former head coach Leslie Frazier

The Buccaneers will have an inside man when it comes to Sunday’s opponent, the Minnesota Vikings. New defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier served as the Vikes’ head coach for three seasons (fired last year), and while some see this matchup as an edge for Minnesota – having practiced against Frazier’s defense since 2010 – those people haven’t been paying attention to just how bad Minnesota’s pass protection is.

The Vikings have allowed the most sacks per play in the league and have watched opponents get to their quarterback 19 times in the last three contests, including five sacks allowed in last week’s crushing loss to the Bills.

On top of that, Minnesota has some injury issues on the offensive line, potentially leaving it with a shallow depth chart when it comes to pass protection. Frazier knows the Vikings’ personnel very well and will exploit any weakness he can find.

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (+5, 44.5)

Seahawks’ tight end troubles vs. Panthers’ TE Greg Olsen

The 12th Man is inches away from pushing the panic button after the seemingly-invincible Seahawks stumbled for the second straight week. Seattle, coming off a home loss to Dallas, stubbed its toe against St. Louis Sunday and now hit the road for a test against the Panthers.

While the Seahawks have a long list of issues coming off back-to-back losses, one area that has killed their defense is covering opposing tight ends. Seattle has allowed 12 receiving touchdowns heading into Week 8, eight of those coming at the hands of tight ends. The Seahawks gave up a TD to St. Louis TE Lance Kendricks last Sunday and two scores to Dallas TEs Jason Witten and Gavin Escobar the week before.

Enter Carolina TE Greg Olsen, who leads all tight ends with 493 yards receiving and has five touchdown catches on the year. That vulnerability to the TE is a big reason why Seattle is allowing an average of 2.2 red-zone scores per game, putting them in similar company as Oakland, Tampa Bay, Tennessee and Atlanta.

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3, 49)

Colts’ up-tempo offense vs. Heinz Field’s crappy conditions

The Colts bring the NFL’s most productive offensive to the Steel City Sunday, averaging 30.9 points on 452.9 yards per game. Indianapolis is ripping through the offensive playbook at breakneck speed, averaging 76.9 plays per game – seven plays more than the next fastest team. However, the Colts haven’t had to stray too far from the perfect track inside Lucas Oil with four home games already, and road tilts inside at Houston and at lowly Jacksonville.

The one true road test came in Week 1 at Denver, where Indianapolis ran just 67 plays on offense and finished with only 24 points and two interceptions from Andrew Luck. Could it have been just Week 1 jitters or did the outdoor conditions slow down the Colts? We’ll find out when Luck & Co. take the terrible turf at Heinz Field – notorious for being the worst playing surface in the entire NFL.

Heinz Field can be a slick surface on the best of days but the shoddy sod is getting a workout this week. The Steelers hosted the Texans Monday, then the Pitt Panthers call Heinz Field home versus Georgia Tech (which does nothing but run and tear up turf) Saturday, before Pittsburgh welcomes Indianapolis Sunday. Three games in one week could make for some crappy conditions, and put a speed bump in front of the Colts’ up-tempo attack.

Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (-1.5, 56)

Packers’ fourth quarter scoring vs. Saints’ fourth quarter scoring

History tells us this Sunday nighter should be packed with plenty of offensive fireworks. The Packers and Saints have combined to score 272 points over their last four meetings – an average of 68 points per game. Green Bay enters as the top-scoring offense in the NFC the last three weeks, averaging 35.7 points per game in that span, but hasn't been able to finish games as strong as it starts them.

The Packers average only 3.3 points per fourth quarter on the season and have posted goose eggs in the final frame in two of their last four games, including last week’s blowout of Carolina. Some of that may have to do with Green Bay taking their foot off the gas in those one-sided wins, but Cheese Heads should be concerned – especially with New Orleans lighting up the scoreboard in the final 15 minutes.

The Saints average 9.8 points per fourth quarter – tops in the league – and have put up 16 points per second half over their last three contests. Two of those games came on the road, where New Orleans is a completely different team. After letting a win versus Detroit slip away late last Sunday, expect the Saints to finish strong against a Packers team fading in the fourth.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game of the Day: Lions vs. Falcons

Detroit Lions vs. Atlanta Falcons (+3.5, 46.5)

The Atlanta Falcons hardly look ready for prime time this season so perhaps a trip overseas is coming at an opportune time as the struggling club attempts to halt a four-game losing streak. The Falcons have dropped all four games by double digits and look to rebound against the Detroit Lions on Sunday morning at London's Wembley Stadium. “We need to worry about this coming week,” Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan said. “We need to prepare better, practice better and play better. We know what to do."

Even though the Falcons are designated the home team, not having to play in Atlanta is a boost for the Lions, who are tied with Green Bay atop the NFC North following last week's dramatic comeback win over New Orleans. Star wideout Calvin Johnson practiced on a limited basis Wednesday and Thursday and Detroit hopes he can rejoin the lineup after missing the past two games with a high ankle sprain. It marks the first international contest for both the Falcons and Lions and will be the first NFL tilt to ever be televised at 9:30 a.m. ET.

TV: 9:30 a.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Lions -3.5. O/U: 46.5

LINE HISTORY: The line has had no movement since opening at Atlanta +3.5. The total has dropped only half a point from a 47 point opening to 46.5.

INJURY REPORT: Lions - WR Calvin Johnson (Ques-Ankle), RB Reggie Bush (Doub-Ankle), TE Brandon Pettigrew (Doub-Ankle) Falcons - G Justin Blalock (Prob-Back), DT Jonathan Babineaux (Doub-Foot)

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Mike Smith is squarely on the hot seat after a fourth straight loss. The Falcons head to London for a must win game before their bye week. They are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 after scoring 15 or less. Detroit stays atop the NFC North with a come-from-behind win over the Saints and now heads to London for an early start time." - Matt Fargo

ABOUT THE FALCONS (2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS, 3-4 O/U): Atlanta came into the season with questions surrounding its defense, but the Falcons have struggled on the other side of the ball - blowing a 10-point second-half lead against the New York Giants in Week 5 and scoring only one touchdown in each of their last two losses to Chicago (27-13) and Baltimore (29-7). Ryan opened the season with a 448-yard, three-TD performance in a win over New Orleans, but he has been limited to one scoring pass in four of the past six games. An already-suspect running game has been further hindered by an injury-ravaged offensive line that is missing four starters. Atlanta is 30th overall in both points (28.4) and total yards (412.1) and has only seven sacks.

ABOUT THE LIONS (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS, 2-5 O/U): Johnson has been a non-factor since his ankle issues cropped up in Week 4, but Detroit has compensated for the superstar receiver's loss with a defense that permits a league-low 290.3 yards and ranks second with 15.0 points allowed. The Lions have also registered 21 sacks and could build upon that total against Ryan, who has been sacked nine times over the past two games. Lions quarterback Matt Stafford has thrown for only nine scoring passes versus six interceptions, but he rallied Detroit with two TD passes in the final 3:38 last week to erase a 13-point deficit against the Saints. Golden Tate had 10 catches for 154 yards and a TD last week and has at least seven receptions in four straight games.

TRENDS:

*Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
*Under is 5-0 in Lions last 5 games following a ATS loss.
*Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
*Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 52.83 percent are backing the Lions and 57.4 are backing the over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sunday Night Football: Packers at Saints

Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (-2.5, 55.5)

The New Orleans Saints will be banking on their home-field dominance when they host the surging Green Bay Packers on Sunday night. The Saints have dropped all four games on the road, including a galling setback last week at Detroit in which they blew a 13-point lead over the final 3:38, but quarterback Drew Brees said it's not time to panic. "There's no must-win games until they're must-win games," Brees said. "It's important. It's really important, but nobody needs that kind of pressure."

Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers adopted a similar mantra to Brees after Green Bay dropped two of its first three, telling the home fans to "relax." Rodgers has guided the Packers to four consecutive wins and has been spectacular in doing so, throwing 13 touchdown passes and zero interceptions to push Green Bay into a tie with Detroit for first place in the NFC North. “We’re 5-2. They’re 2-4," Rodgers said. "They’ve lost some close games. We won a couple close ones. But they’re a good football team."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: Since opening at New Orleans -1.5, action has forced the line to jump a full point to NO -2.5. The total market opened at 54 before climbing all the way to 56 and it currently sits at 55.5.

INJURY REPORT: Packers - CB Sam Shields (Doub-Knee), S Morgan Burnett (Ques-Calf), RB James Starks (Prob-Ankle) Saints - CB Patrick Robinson (Prob-Hamstring), TE Jimmy Graham (Prob-Shoulder), CB Keenan Lewis (Ques-Knee)

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Green Bay with four straight wins and covers, heads to New Orleans to face the reeling Saints. The Pack are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven games as underdogs prior to their bye week. The Saints are thankfully home for four of their next five games after falling to 0-4 on the road. The Saints are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 at home vs. .667 or better NFC non-divisional opponent." - Matt Fargo

ABOUT THE PACKERS (5-2 SU, 4-2-1 ATS, 6-1 O/U): Rodgers has 18 scoring passes versus one interception - that coming in Week 1 - and is coming off his fourth consecutive games with at least three TD passes in a 38-17 demolition of Carolina. Jordy Nelson has six touchdown catches and is second in the league with 712 receiving yards while fellow wideout Randall Cobb has eight TD receptions. The Packers are averaging 36.3 points during their winning streak despite a slow start by second-year running back Eddie Lacy, who has four touchdowns in the past four contests but has been limited to 48 yards or fewer in five of the seven games. Green Bay is one of the league's worst team's against the run, ranking 31st with an average of 147.9 yards allowed.

ABOUT NEW ORLEANS (2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS, 5-1 O/U): The Saints' defense is permitting 27.5 points per game and appear vulnerable to Rodgers and Green Bay's vaunted aerial attack, surrendering 270.5 passing yards while collecting only nine sacks. Brees' inconsistency is reflected in his past three games - he has thrown for over 300 yards in each but has six touchdowns and five interceptions in that span. One major concern is the health of standout tight end Jimmy Graham, who did not have a catch against the Lions while battling a shoulder injury that has limited him in practice this season. Third-down back Pierre Thomas is expected to miss the game with a shoulder injury, leaving Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson as the primary ball carries.

TRENDS:

*Packers are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
*Saints are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
*Over is 6-0 in Packers last 6 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
*Over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 62.1 percent are behind with an overwhelming 68.8 percent on the over.