SPORTS DATA QUERY GROUP
Event: (455) Cleveland Browns at (456) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: October 21, 2018 1PM EDT
Play: Total Over 52.5 (-108)
Over the last two weeks the Browns have scored 12 and 14 points. Bad teams that are off two straight weeks of low scoring games have tended to make adjustments to increase their scoring. This involves being less conservative and this has resulted in high-scoring games. Specifically, teams that won fewer than six games are 39-0 OU as a FG-plus road dog vs a non-divisional opponent that won more regular season games last seaosn when they have a third down conversion percentage of less than 42.9, they scored fewer points than expected in each of their last two games, threw fewer than two interceptions and did not hold their opponent to less than 110 passing yards in their last game. The SDQL text is:
A and line>=3 and tA(3DP)<42.9 and NDIV and PRSW < 6 and o
RSW-PRSW>0 and p:dps<=0 and pp:dps<=0 and NB and p:INT<2 and poY>110 and season>=2006
Let’s break this down further. What were a looking at is a bad team that is not scoring as a significant road dog. They did not throw multiple interceptions in their last game, which could lead to a more conservative strategy. They did not hold their opponent to less than 110 passing yards in their last game, which might compel the coaching staff to rely on their defense. The fact that they are facing a non-divisional opponent means they will feel that they use the opportunity to try out new things. This leads to more possessions for both teams, more takeaways for the home team and more points for both teams. These 39 games have gone over by an average of 12.23 ppg.
Hue Jackson can’t be thinking he is going to beat the Buccaneers by running the ball, can he?
Cleveland has tended to play aggressively against teams that are also struggling. The Browns are 8-0 OU as a road dog off a home game facing an opponent that is off two consecutive losses, flying over by an average of 21.06 ppg. Their last active date was week 4 this season when they lost to the Raiders 45-42 with the OU line at 45.
Finally, the Browns are 7-0 OU (+15.64 ppg) as a dog off a game as a dog when they are playing a team with the same W-L record.
The Buccaneers are near the bottom of the league in numerous rushing categories. They only have one rushing TD this season and only 13.6% of their first downs are on the ground - both league worsts - and they have averaged 3.6 yards per rush and 80.2 rushing yards per game - which are both 30th or worse. This is relevant because Tampa is 13-0 OU (+11.31 ppg) at home when they had fewer than six wins the previous season and they off a road game and they are averaging less than 3.85 yards per rush.
Finally, the Buccaneers are 5-0 OU this season and it certainly seems like playing the OVER can’t have line value. However, teams that are 5-0 OU on the season are 6-0 OU in game six when they total is at least 46, going over by double-digits. The SDQL text is:
tS(O)=5 and tS(U)=0 and total>=46
Make the OVER the play.
Event: (455) Cleveland Browns at (456) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: October 21, 2018 1PM EDT
Play: Total Over 52.5 (-108)
Over the last two weeks the Browns have scored 12 and 14 points. Bad teams that are off two straight weeks of low scoring games have tended to make adjustments to increase their scoring. This involves being less conservative and this has resulted in high-scoring games. Specifically, teams that won fewer than six games are 39-0 OU as a FG-plus road dog vs a non-divisional opponent that won more regular season games last seaosn when they have a third down conversion percentage of less than 42.9, they scored fewer points than expected in each of their last two games, threw fewer than two interceptions and did not hold their opponent to less than 110 passing yards in their last game. The SDQL text is:
A and line>=3 and tA(3DP)<42.9 and NDIV and PRSW < 6 and o
RSW-PRSW>0 and p:dps<=0 and pp:dps<=0 and NB and p:INT<2 and poY>110 and season>=2006Let’s break this down further. What were a looking at is a bad team that is not scoring as a significant road dog. They did not throw multiple interceptions in their last game, which could lead to a more conservative strategy. They did not hold their opponent to less than 110 passing yards in their last game, which might compel the coaching staff to rely on their defense. The fact that they are facing a non-divisional opponent means they will feel that they use the opportunity to try out new things. This leads to more possessions for both teams, more takeaways for the home team and more points for both teams. These 39 games have gone over by an average of 12.23 ppg.
Hue Jackson can’t be thinking he is going to beat the Buccaneers by running the ball, can he?
Cleveland has tended to play aggressively against teams that are also struggling. The Browns are 8-0 OU as a road dog off a home game facing an opponent that is off two consecutive losses, flying over by an average of 21.06 ppg. Their last active date was week 4 this season when they lost to the Raiders 45-42 with the OU line at 45.
Finally, the Browns are 7-0 OU (+15.64 ppg) as a dog off a game as a dog when they are playing a team with the same W-L record.
The Buccaneers are near the bottom of the league in numerous rushing categories. They only have one rushing TD this season and only 13.6% of their first downs are on the ground - both league worsts - and they have averaged 3.6 yards per rush and 80.2 rushing yards per game - which are both 30th or worse. This is relevant because Tampa is 13-0 OU (+11.31 ppg) at home when they had fewer than six wins the previous season and they off a road game and they are averaging less than 3.85 yards per rush.
Finally, the Buccaneers are 5-0 OU this season and it certainly seems like playing the OVER can’t have line value. However, teams that are 5-0 OU on the season are 6-0 OU in game six when they total is at least 46, going over by double-digits. The SDQL text is:
tS(O)=5 and tS(U)=0 and total>=46
Make the OVER the play.
KEVIN DOLAN
Event: (461) Buffalo Bills at (462) Indianapolis Colts
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: October 21, 2018 1PM EDT
Play: Buffalo Bills 7.0 (-109)
While this non-divisional matchup between a 1-5 team and 2-4 team mightn't exactly get pulses racing at TV executive HQ, they all pay the same for sports bettors and we believe this line is simply too high.
Derek Anderson comes in as Bills QB to replace the injured Josh Allen. While this isn't ideal preperation for this Bills offense is it really that much of a downgrade? The Bills rank dead last in offensive ppg. Allen also had a QB rating of just 61.8 on the season and had a 2-5 touchdown to interception ratio so perhaps Anderson, even off a two year hiatus, might not be such a downgrade at the QB position for this team.
The main reason we like Buffalo getting +8 points however at home is their defense. This is a team predicated on solid defense. Buffalo ranks 3rd in the country on opponent yards per game, whereas Indianapolis are 25th. Whenever you get such discrepancy in defensive numbers, irregardless of offensive numbers and getting this many points in the process, its usually always an automatic play on the defensive team catching the number.
Expect the Buffalo Bills to keep this one close in Indiana and possibly pull the outright upset.
Event: (461) Buffalo Bills at (462) Indianapolis Colts
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: October 21, 2018 1PM EDT
Play: Buffalo Bills 7.0 (-109)
While this non-divisional matchup between a 1-5 team and 2-4 team mightn't exactly get pulses racing at TV executive HQ, they all pay the same for sports bettors and we believe this line is simply too high.
Derek Anderson comes in as Bills QB to replace the injured Josh Allen. While this isn't ideal preperation for this Bills offense is it really that much of a downgrade? The Bills rank dead last in offensive ppg. Allen also had a QB rating of just 61.8 on the season and had a 2-5 touchdown to interception ratio so perhaps Anderson, even off a two year hiatus, might not be such a downgrade at the QB position for this team.
The main reason we like Buffalo getting +8 points however at home is their defense. This is a team predicated on solid defense. Buffalo ranks 3rd in the country on opponent yards per game, whereas Indianapolis are 25th. Whenever you get such discrepancy in defensive numbers, irregardless of offensive numbers and getting this many points in the process, its usually always an automatic play on the defensive team catching the number.
Expect the Buffalo Bills to keep this one close in Indiana and possibly pull the outright upset.
BUSTER SPORTS
Event: (707) Houston Rockets at (708) Los Angeles Clippers
Sport/League: NBA
Date/Time: October 21, 2018 9PM EDT
Play: Los Angeles Clippers 2.5 (-108)
The Rockets get right back at it tonight in LA as they play the Clippers after an interesting night last night against the Lakers. Houston won 124-115 but the game was much closer than the final score. Also as most are aware their was a melee in the fourth quarter having 3 players being ejected. Houston PG Chris Paul was one of the players ejected and now faces suspension. This play will be totally situational for us as we believe with the back to back for Houston early in the season and the emotions of last nights game, this gives a clear advantage to the rested Clippers. The Clippers are getting 2 1/2 points at the time of this writing and we will take those points as we actually believe LA wins this game OR. So lets get the job done with the LA Clippers as your Bonus Play for today.
Event: (707) Houston Rockets at (708) Los Angeles Clippers
Sport/League: NBA
Date/Time: October 21, 2018 9PM EDT
Play: Los Angeles Clippers 2.5 (-108)
The Rockets get right back at it tonight in LA as they play the Clippers after an interesting night last night against the Lakers. Houston won 124-115 but the game was much closer than the final score. Also as most are aware their was a melee in the fourth quarter having 3 players being ejected. Houston PG Chris Paul was one of the players ejected and now faces suspension. This play will be totally situational for us as we believe with the back to back for Houston early in the season and the emotions of last nights game, this gives a clear advantage to the rested Clippers. The Clippers are getting 2 1/2 points at the time of this writing and we will take those points as we actually believe LA wins this game OR. So lets get the job done with the LA Clippers as your Bonus Play for today.
JIMMY BOYD
1* Free Pick on Cleveland Browns +3
Cleveland is worth a look here as a short road dog against the Bucs. Most will be drawn to Tampa Bay with the Browns off an ugly 38-14 loss at home to the Chargers and the Bucs narrowly missing out on a win at Atlanta. I think hit has Cleveland showing value here.
Tampa Bay has lost 3 straight and the defense continues to be awful and this is simply not a team you can trust laying points. The Bucs are 31st in the NFL, giving up 440 yards/game. They also have the 32nd ranked pass defense (355.8 ypg), which makes it near impossible to put teams away even if they do get a lead.
Cleveland is better than they showed against LA and keep in mind that's a Chargers team that is 4-2 with their only two losses coming against the two best teams in the league in the Chiefs and Rams. I think the Browns can make Jameis Winston and the Bucs one-dimensional with the passing game and really pin their ears back and put pressure on the mistake-prone signal caller. Tampa Bay has 11 turnovers in their last 14 games and have won the turnover battle just once all season.
Bucs are 4-9 ATS as a home favorite with Winston as their starting quarterback and 12-26 in their last 38 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Take Cleveland!
1* Free Pick on Cleveland Browns +3
Cleveland is worth a look here as a short road dog against the Bucs. Most will be drawn to Tampa Bay with the Browns off an ugly 38-14 loss at home to the Chargers and the Bucs narrowly missing out on a win at Atlanta. I think hit has Cleveland showing value here.
Tampa Bay has lost 3 straight and the defense continues to be awful and this is simply not a team you can trust laying points. The Bucs are 31st in the NFL, giving up 440 yards/game. They also have the 32nd ranked pass defense (355.8 ypg), which makes it near impossible to put teams away even if they do get a lead.
Cleveland is better than they showed against LA and keep in mind that's a Chargers team that is 4-2 with their only two losses coming against the two best teams in the league in the Chiefs and Rams. I think the Browns can make Jameis Winston and the Bucs one-dimensional with the passing game and really pin their ears back and put pressure on the mistake-prone signal caller. Tampa Bay has 11 turnovers in their last 14 games and have won the turnover battle just once all season.
Bucs are 4-9 ATS as a home favorite with Winston as their starting quarterback and 12-26 in their last 38 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Take Cleveland!
SCOTT RICKENBACH
NFL | Oct 21, 2018
Panthers vs. Eagles
Eagles-5
Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Game #460 Sunday Free Pick Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Carolina Panthers @ 1 ET - After this game the Eagles are headed to London to face the Jaguars, whom they nearly faced in last year's Super Bowl as the Jags almost (and should have) upset the Patriots in the AFC Championship. Following the trip to London is a bye week so the Eagles won't be back on their home field again until November 11th. Couple that with the fact that Philadelphia got jumped on by the Vikings in their most recent home game (down 17-3 at half) before they rallied but yet still fell short in the game, and you have the perfect scenario for the Eagles to come out strong in this game. Though Philly is off a divisional win over the Giants, the Eagles are actually a stellar 8-3 ATS their last 11 when off an NFC East game. Also, Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in home games with a posted total in a range of 42.5 to 45 points. The Panthers are on a 2-5 ATS run in road games with a posted total in a range of 42.5 to 45 points. The Eagles overcame a 126 to 1 penalty yardage deficit last season to still beat the Panthers by 5 in Carolina. You won't see that kind of discrepancy again in penalty yardage on their home field this time around! Free Pick PHILADELPHIA
NFL | Oct 21, 2018
Panthers vs. Eagles
Eagles-5
Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Game #460 Sunday Free Pick Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Carolina Panthers @ 1 ET - After this game the Eagles are headed to London to face the Jaguars, whom they nearly faced in last year's Super Bowl as the Jags almost (and should have) upset the Patriots in the AFC Championship. Following the trip to London is a bye week so the Eagles won't be back on their home field again until November 11th. Couple that with the fact that Philadelphia got jumped on by the Vikings in their most recent home game (down 17-3 at half) before they rallied but yet still fell short in the game, and you have the perfect scenario for the Eagles to come out strong in this game. Though Philly is off a divisional win over the Giants, the Eagles are actually a stellar 8-3 ATS their last 11 when off an NFC East game. Also, Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in home games with a posted total in a range of 42.5 to 45 points. The Panthers are on a 2-5 ATS run in road games with a posted total in a range of 42.5 to 45 points. The Eagles overcame a 126 to 1 penalty yardage deficit last season to still beat the Panthers by 5 in Carolina. You won't see that kind of discrepancy again in penalty yardage on their home field this time around! Free Pick PHILADELPHIA
ROSS BENJAMIN
Bills @ Colts 1:00 PM ET
Game# 461-462
Play On: Bills +7.0
This is a battle of lousy teams and the Colts shouldn’t be a touchdown favorite against anybody. The difference in this game will be Buffalo’s defense. Since the 2nd half of their game against the Chargers in Week 2, Buffalo’s stop unit has played at an extremely high level. The Bills offense has been anemic this season, but they’ll be facing a Colts defense which has allowed 37 points or more in each of their previous 3 games. Indianapolis is arguably the most physically banged up team at this juncture. Take the Bills plus the points for my Sunday 10/21 NFL free pick.
Bills @ Colts 1:00 PM ET
Game# 461-462
Play On: Bills +7.0
This is a battle of lousy teams and the Colts shouldn’t be a touchdown favorite against anybody. The difference in this game will be Buffalo’s defense. Since the 2nd half of their game against the Chargers in Week 2, Buffalo’s stop unit has played at an extremely high level. The Bills offense has been anemic this season, but they’ll be facing a Colts defense which has allowed 37 points or more in each of their previous 3 games. Indianapolis is arguably the most physically banged up team at this juncture. Take the Bills plus the points for my Sunday 10/21 NFL free pick.
BRANDON LEE
10* FREE NFL PICK (Vikings -3.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Vikings laying just 3.5-points on the road against the Jets. Minnesota has won 2 straight and I just don't see this team laying another egg against an inferior opponent like they did in Week 3 against the Bills.
The Jets have won two straight as well, but those were at home against a couple of sub-par teams in the Broncos and Colts. Two teams at the time that were offering zero resistance on the defensive side of the ball. I love to fade rookie quarterbacks, especially ones like Sam Darnold, who are mistake prone, against a top level defense.
Making matters worse is the Vikings have a great run defense, only once all season has Minnesota allowed more than 100 yards on the ground. The Jets have just two games where they have finished with more than 190 passing yards. It's going to be really tough for New York to score and keep pace with Kirk Cousins and the Vikings offense.
Minnesota is 26-15 ATS in their last 41 as a favorite and have covered 7 of their last 10 on the road. Give me the Vikings -3.5.
10* FREE NFL PICK (Vikings -3.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Vikings laying just 3.5-points on the road against the Jets. Minnesota has won 2 straight and I just don't see this team laying another egg against an inferior opponent like they did in Week 3 against the Bills.
The Jets have won two straight as well, but those were at home against a couple of sub-par teams in the Broncos and Colts. Two teams at the time that were offering zero resistance on the defensive side of the ball. I love to fade rookie quarterbacks, especially ones like Sam Darnold, who are mistake prone, against a top level defense.
Making matters worse is the Vikings have a great run defense, only once all season has Minnesota allowed more than 100 yards on the ground. The Jets have just two games where they have finished with more than 190 passing yards. It's going to be really tough for New York to score and keep pace with Kirk Cousins and the Vikings offense.
Minnesota is 26-15 ATS in their last 41 as a favorite and have covered 7 of their last 10 on the road. Give me the Vikings -3.5.
