Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Pick ATS
Arizona Cardinals (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) vs. Carolina Panthers (1-2, 1-2), 10/4/20
Point spread: Cardinals -3.5
Moneyline: Cardinals -185/Panthers +150
Over/Under: 52
Kyler Murray and his Cardinals shoot to bounce back after getting upset last week when they play the Panthers in Charlotte Sunday afternoon. Arizona started 2-0 this season but took a home loss to Detroit last week. Meanwhile, Carolina picked up its first win for its new head coach. What does all that mean as far as our free NFL pick on this game goes?
NFL Betting Odds
Week 4’s NFL betting odds opened Arizona as a 3.5-point road favorite over Carolina, with an over/under of right around 51.5. Early betting action then edged that total up to 52.
Cardinals vs. Panthers Set-Up
Arizona is 2-1 on the season, after getting upset at home to previously winless Detroit last week 26-23. In a game that swayed back and forth all day, the Cardinals led 7-3 after one quarter, trailed 17-13 at the half, then led 23-20 through three quarters. But Arizona managed just 29 yards of offense in the fourth quarter and lost on a couple of Lions field goals, the last one at the buzzer.
The Cardinals fell outright as five-point favorites last week and at -235 on the NFL betting money line.
For the day, Arizona out-gained Detroit 377-322 and out-rushed the Lions 109-90. But the Cardinals also lost the turnover battle 3-0 (on three Murray interceptions), resulting in a -13 points differential.
Arizona opened this season with that 24-20 win at San Francisco, taking that game outright as a seven-point dog. The Cardinals then beat Washington 30-15, covering as seven-point favorites.
Carolina, meanwhile, is 1-2 on the season after beating the Chargers last week 21-16. The Panthers, playing without injured RB Christian McCaffrey, punted on their first possession of the game, then hit the scoreboard on their next five to lead 18-7 at the half. Carolina later led 21-10 early in the fourth quarter, let the Chargers get within one score with about four minutes left, then punted the ball to the San Diego 1-yard line. They then allowed the Chargers to drive last-gasp to just outside the Panthers red zone but survived a last-second hook-and-lateral play that nearly worked, but didn’t.
Carolina won that game outright as a six-point underdog and cashed in at a price of +215 on the NFL money line.
On the day, the Panthers got out-gained by the San Diego 436-302, out-rushed 117-81, and made just 14 first downs to 26 for the Chargers. But Carolina won the turnover battle 4-0, creating a +13 points differential.
The Panthers opened this season with a 34-30 loss to Las Vegas, just missing ATS as three-point home dogs. Carolina then lost to Tampa Bay 31-17, falling ATS at +7.5.
These teams just met back in September of last season, a 38-20 Panthers victory in Phoenix. Carolina, quarterbacked by Kyle Allen that day, only led 21-20 in the third quarter, then scored the last 17 points of the game to pull away.
We expect a different outcome Sunday.
NFL Betting Trends
Arizona is 4-5 SU but 6-1-2 ATS on the road over the last season-plus.
Carolina is 2-7 SU, 2-6-1 ATS at home over the last season-plus.
Carolina is 0-3-1 ATS as a home dog over the last season-plus.
Favorites are 32-15-1 SU but 22-25-1 ATS in the NFL this season.
Home teams are 25-22-1 SU, 24-23-1 ATS in the NFL this season.
Home dogs are 4-11 SU but 8-6-1 ATS in the NFL this season.
Totals Report
Unders are 3-0 in Cardinals games this season, which have averaged 46 total points against an average over/under of 50.
Overs are 2-1 in Panthers games this season, which have averaged 50 points against an average O/U of 44.
Overs are 29-19 in the NFL this season.
Free NFL Pick: Arizona minus the points
Arizona lost as a favorite at home last week while Carolina pulled an upset on the road. But we’re big believers in a “reversal of fortunes” betting theory, which posits that what’s up one week is often down the next, and vice versa. And this game fits that theory perfectly. The Cardinals probably won’t lose the turnover battle 3-0 this week, and the Panthers probably won’t win it 4-0. Also, Carolina had red-zone problems without McCaffrey last week, settling for five field goals, and we expect that to continue.
Arizona Cardinals (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) vs. Carolina Panthers (1-2, 1-2), 10/4/20
Point spread: Cardinals -3.5
Moneyline: Cardinals -185/Panthers +150
Over/Under: 52
Kyler Murray and his Cardinals shoot to bounce back after getting upset last week when they play the Panthers in Charlotte Sunday afternoon. Arizona started 2-0 this season but took a home loss to Detroit last week. Meanwhile, Carolina picked up its first win for its new head coach. What does all that mean as far as our free NFL pick on this game goes?
NFL Betting Odds
Week 4’s NFL betting odds opened Arizona as a 3.5-point road favorite over Carolina, with an over/under of right around 51.5. Early betting action then edged that total up to 52.
Cardinals vs. Panthers Set-Up
Arizona is 2-1 on the season, after getting upset at home to previously winless Detroit last week 26-23. In a game that swayed back and forth all day, the Cardinals led 7-3 after one quarter, trailed 17-13 at the half, then led 23-20 through three quarters. But Arizona managed just 29 yards of offense in the fourth quarter and lost on a couple of Lions field goals, the last one at the buzzer.
The Cardinals fell outright as five-point favorites last week and at -235 on the NFL betting money line.
For the day, Arizona out-gained Detroit 377-322 and out-rushed the Lions 109-90. But the Cardinals also lost the turnover battle 3-0 (on three Murray interceptions), resulting in a -13 points differential.
Arizona opened this season with that 24-20 win at San Francisco, taking that game outright as a seven-point dog. The Cardinals then beat Washington 30-15, covering as seven-point favorites.
Carolina, meanwhile, is 1-2 on the season after beating the Chargers last week 21-16. The Panthers, playing without injured RB Christian McCaffrey, punted on their first possession of the game, then hit the scoreboard on their next five to lead 18-7 at the half. Carolina later led 21-10 early in the fourth quarter, let the Chargers get within one score with about four minutes left, then punted the ball to the San Diego 1-yard line. They then allowed the Chargers to drive last-gasp to just outside the Panthers red zone but survived a last-second hook-and-lateral play that nearly worked, but didn’t.
Carolina won that game outright as a six-point underdog and cashed in at a price of +215 on the NFL money line.
On the day, the Panthers got out-gained by the San Diego 436-302, out-rushed 117-81, and made just 14 first downs to 26 for the Chargers. But Carolina won the turnover battle 4-0, creating a +13 points differential.
The Panthers opened this season with a 34-30 loss to Las Vegas, just missing ATS as three-point home dogs. Carolina then lost to Tampa Bay 31-17, falling ATS at +7.5.
These teams just met back in September of last season, a 38-20 Panthers victory in Phoenix. Carolina, quarterbacked by Kyle Allen that day, only led 21-20 in the third quarter, then scored the last 17 points of the game to pull away.
We expect a different outcome Sunday.
NFL Betting Trends
Arizona is 4-5 SU but 6-1-2 ATS on the road over the last season-plus.
Carolina is 2-7 SU, 2-6-1 ATS at home over the last season-plus.
Carolina is 0-3-1 ATS as a home dog over the last season-plus.
Favorites are 32-15-1 SU but 22-25-1 ATS in the NFL this season.
Home teams are 25-22-1 SU, 24-23-1 ATS in the NFL this season.
Home dogs are 4-11 SU but 8-6-1 ATS in the NFL this season.
Totals Report
Unders are 3-0 in Cardinals games this season, which have averaged 46 total points against an average over/under of 50.
Overs are 2-1 in Panthers games this season, which have averaged 50 points against an average O/U of 44.
Overs are 29-19 in the NFL this season.
Free NFL Pick: Arizona minus the points
Arizona lost as a favorite at home last week while Carolina pulled an upset on the road. But we’re big believers in a “reversal of fortunes” betting theory, which posits that what’s up one week is often down the next, and vice versa. And this game fits that theory perfectly. The Cardinals probably won’t lose the turnover battle 3-0 this week, and the Panthers probably won’t win it 4-0. Also, Carolina had red-zone problems without McCaffrey last week, settling for five field goals, and we expect that to continue.
