Sunday 1/6/2019 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Requests Etc

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NFL
Long Sheet

Sunday, January 6

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LA CHARGERS (12 - 4) at BALTIMORE (10 - 6) - 1/6/2019, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games this season.
LA CHARGERS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road lined games this season.
LA CHARGERS is 36-18 ATS (+16.2 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 92-64 ATS (+21.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 100-71 ATS (+21.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 52-32 ATS (+16.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 37-18 ATS (+17.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (9 - 7) at CHICAGO (12 - 4) - 1/6/2019, 4:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games this season.
CHICAGO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
CHICAGO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in home games this season.
CHICAGO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in home lined games this season.
CHICAGO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
CHICAGO is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CHICAGO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 75-52 ATS (+17.8 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
CHICAGO is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in home games against NFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

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NFL

Wildcard Round

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Trend Report

Sunday, January 6

Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
LA Chargers is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Chargers's last 10 games
LA Chargers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
LA Chargers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
LA Chargers is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 7 games when playing Baltimore
LA Chargers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Baltimore is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 7 games when playing LA Chargers
Baltimore is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Chargers

Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 5-9-1 ATS in its last 15 games
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Philadelphia's last 24 games on the road
Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Philadelphia is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing Chicago
Philadelphia is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago Bears
Chicago is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Chicago is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games
Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Chicago is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Chicago is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing Philadelphia
Chicago is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

 

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NFL
Dunkel

Wildcard Round

Sunday, January 6

LA Chargers @ Baltimore

Game 105-106
January 6, 2019 @ 1:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Chargers
139.364
Baltimore
134.870
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Chargers
by 4 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 2 1/2
41
Dunkel Pick:
LA Chargers
(+2 1/2); Over

Philadelphia @ Chicago

Game 107-108
January 6, 2019 @ 4:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
135.680
Chicago
130.441
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 5
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 6
41
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+6); Under

 

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Chargers @ Ravens- Baltimore outgained Chargers 361-198 in 22-10 win at LA two weeks ago; Ravens outrushed Bolts 159-51, holding Chargers without a play longer than 17 yards. Ravens are 6-1 with rookie Jackson at QB; he is averaging 17 carries/game; they’ve run ball for 229.9 yards/game in Jackson’s starts. Baltimore won its last four home games; they’re 4-5 vs spread in games with spread of 4 or fewer points. Chargers won 11 of last 13 games after a 1-2 start; Bolts are 8-0 outside LA this season, with only road loss vs Rams in Coliseum. Chargers have only three TD’s on 22 drives in last two games; two of those were on drives of 16-17 yards. LA is in playoffs for first time since ’13, 2nd time since ’09. Ravens are in playoffs for first time since ’14.

 

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Eagles @ Bears— Chicago is in playoffs for first time since 2010; they’ve won/covered nine of last ten games, losing at NYG in game when backup QB Daniel played. Bears won/covered their last five home games- their only home loss this year was 38-31 to Patriots in Week 7. Chicago is 9-3 vs spread as a favorite this year. Two head coaches worked together for seven years, in KC/Philly; Eagles won last three series games, pounding Bears 31-3 in Philly LY. Iggles won six of their last eight visits to the Windy City. Philly is defending Super Bowl champ; they’ve won five of last six games, are 1-2 vs spread as an underdog. Eagles won four of last six road games. Three of last four Philly games went over total; last four Chicago games stayed under.

 

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FOLES HAS BRUISED RIBS

Coach Doug Pederson confirmed on Monday afternoon that quarterback Nick Foles is healthy enough to start at Chicago on Sunday as the Eagles visit the Bears (Chicago -6, O/U 41). He is dealing with bruised ribs that he originally suffered in Week 16 and then aggravated when he took a sack in the fourth quarter against Washington on Sunday. (Side note: It was a very costly sack for Foles as he wound up falling four snaps shy of a $1 million bonus.)

He will likely be backed up by Nate Sudfeld as reports on Sunday noted that Carson Wentz is not expected to play in the playoffs (though, as of Monday, Wentz remained on the active roster). Sudfeld went 1-for-1 for 22 yards and a touchdown in relief of Foles against Washington.

Foles has passed for 270, 471, and 221 yards since becoming the starter but will be in tough on Sunday against the No. 1 ranked defense in passing DVOA. Here’s the key: Chicago posted the third-most sacks in the league with 50, just two behind co-leaders Kansas City and Pittsburgh. Philadelphia is average at protecting the quarterback and is allowing 2.5 sacks per game, ranked 16th in the NFL.

With bruised ribs, Foles will be just one hit away from having to sit for a series or two, or from being knocked from the game altogether. We’ll revisit this situation later in the week based on injury updates but if it seems that Foles is hurting we’ll be looking to fade his passing yards total.

 

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NFL's Top ATS Teams (based on cover %):

1. Bears 12-4 ATS
2. Seahawks 9-5-2 ATS
t3. Saints 10-6 ATS
t3. Browns 10-6 ATS
5. Chiefs 9-6-1 ATS
t6. 6 teams tied at 9-7 ATS (Chargers, Pats, Cowboys, Bengals, Washington, Lions)

 

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NFL's Worst ATS Teams (based on cover %):

t31. 49ers 5-11
t31. Falcons 5-11
30. Jets 5-10-1
29. Jaguars 5-9-2
28. Raiders 6-10
t26. Packers 6-9-1
t26. Broncos 6-9-1
t25. 3 teams tied at 7-9 (Bills, Panthers, Eagles)

 

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NFL's Top OVER Teams (based on Over %):

1. Chiefs 10-5-1
2. Jets 10-6
t3. Falcons 9-7
t3. Giants 9-7
t3. 49ers 9-7
t3. Seahawks 9-7
t3. Buccaneers 9-7
8. Bengals 8-6-2

 

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NFL's Top UNDER Teams (based on Under %):

1. Broncos 12-3-1
2. Patriots 11-5
t3. Lions 10-6
t3. Jaguars 10-6
t3. Vikings 10-6
t4. 8 teams tied at 7-9 (Cardinals, Ravens, Bills, Cowboys, Texans,Saints, Eagles, Redskins)

 

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L.A. Chargers at Baltimore (CBS, 1:05 p.m. ET)

The Ravens defeated the Chargers 22-10 in Week 16 as four-point road underdogs in a primetime game played on a Saturday from Los Angeles and the ‘under’ (42 ½) cashed easily. And if it wasn’t for a pair of 60-plus yard touchdowns by Baltimore, one from its defense, the final score would’ve been much lower.

Bookmaker opened the rematch (41 ½) a tad lower and its been pushed down to 41 but most other shops are still holding 41 ½ as of Thursday.

While Baltimore was fortunate to connect on two big plays in the first meeting, it clearly dominated the game in yardage (361-198) and it won the turnover battle (3-1) as well with the last mistake putting the game away in the fourth quarter. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers was sacked four times, picked off twice and only completed 23-of-37 attempts for 181 yards.

Outside of the long touchdown pass, Ravens rookie QB Lamar Jackson wasn’t sharp from the pocket (12-of-22) but he contributed with 39 of Baltimore’s 159 rushing yards. Since Jackson took over for Joe Flacco as the starting QB in Week 11, the Ravens are averaging 229 yards per game on the ground and the team is averaging 25.1 points per game. That production has led to a 4-3 ‘over’ mark and the Ravens defense (17.9) has done its best to keep those ‘under’ tickets cashing.

After losing at home to Baltimore, the Chargers finished the season with a lackluster 23-9 win at Denver and Rivers was far from sharp. He was picked off twice and only completed 14-of-24 (58%) of his passes against a Broncos secondary that featured more backups than starters. Rivers closed the season with two interceptions in each of his final three games. Which Rivers will show up on Sunday? I wish I knew but how you answer that question will obviously play heavily into your wager.

Make a note that Los Angeles was tied with New Orleans with the best road mark in the NFL this season at 7-1 and it’s arguably 8-1 since it beat Tennessee from London in Week 7. Including that results, the ‘over’ went 5-4 in games outside of L.A. for the club and they did score more on the road (26.9 PPG).

Some pundits believe that travel could play a factor for L.A. and it’s certainly not an easy trip. However, the Chargers went 3-0 in three games played in the Eastern Time Zone this season (Bills, Browns, Steelers) and they averaged 34 PPG in those wins. The ‘over’ went 3-0.

Prior to the recent encounter on Dec. 22, the pair split two regular season games from Baltimore in 2014 and 2015 and the outcomes were decided by a combined four points (29-26, 34-33).

As mentioned above, both clubs haven’t been in the playoffs in a few years but Baltimore’s 10-5 SU and 11-4 ATS postseason record under head coach John Harbaugh is very impressive and only two of those games were at home. The totals were a wash (7-7-1) in those contests but in the lone pair from Maryland, the ‘under’ cashed easily in both as the Ravens allowed 11 PPG in the victories.

The Chargers have gone 4-5 in the playoffs under Rivers but he’s 3-0 in the Wild Card round and the ‘under’ has gone 3-0 in those games.

Fearless Prediction: While the Chargers have put up some crooked numbers on the road, this Ravens defense is legit and I can see them making a run similar to what San Francisco did in 2012 when they handed the ball over from veteran QB Alex Smith to the upstart Colin Kaepernick. Coincidentally, that team was run by Harbaugh’s brother Jim. For those that put stock into playoff trends, make a note that the first game (1:05 p.m. ET) on Sunday in the Wild Card round has watched the ‘under’ cash the last eight years. I’m going to ride the Under (41 ½) for the game and expect another grinder, this time on the East Coast.

 

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Philadelphia at Chicago (FOX, 4:40 p.m. ET)

Of the four Wild Card matchups, this one is expected to be the most lopsided with the Bears listed as six-point favorites over the Eagles. The total (41) could likely be the lowest as well and as of Thursday evening, the number has held steady since it opened.

The best unit on the field will be the Bears defense, which is ranked first in scoring (17.7 PPG) and third in total yards (299.7) allowed. The group also led the league with 36 turnovers, which included a league-high 27 interceptions and nine fumbles. They were tied for third in sacks (50) and all of that production led to six defensive touchdowns.

Despite that domination, the Bears saw their total results (8-8) break even this season but it did close the season with four straight winning tickets to the ‘under’ and both the defense (10.5 PPG) and lack of offense (19.3 PPG) helped that cause.

Chicago’s offense remains a mystery but I believe what we’ve seen in the last quarter is what the unit is and not the one that posted 28.6 PPG in its first 12 games. The benefit of extra possessions and great field position from the defense helped the offense a lot and the numbers prove that. The unit was ranked 21st in total offense (343.9 YPG) yet they managed to convert well on third downs and in the red zone, which led to plenty of points. Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky isn’t going to dice up any secondary but he’s efficient and makes a lot happen with his legs.

The Eagles defense (23 PPG) hasn’t been as strong on the road and the ‘over’ went 5-3 in those games, with one of the ‘under’ tickets taking place from London in a 24-18 win over Jacksonville in Week 8. The unit did shutout the short-handed Redskins 24-0 last Sunday in D.C. but they allowed 33.3 PPG in their three previous away games, all coming to playoff teams too (Saints, Cowboys, Rams).

The X-factor for this total and the game comes down to Eagles QB Nick Foles, who’s up to his old tricks again. Since taking over for the injured Carson Wentz in Week 15, the Birds closed the season with three straight wins and the offense posted 28.6 PPG in the wins. As a starter in second stop for Philadelphia, Foles has gone 9-2 and that includes a 3-0 playoff mark last year.

Are we going to witness another Foles run this January? The ‘over’ went 2-1 for the Eagles in last year’s championship push and he was fortunate to have the Birds defense step up at home (8.5 PPG) against the Falcons and Vikings. In the Super Bowl, he played outplayed QB Tom Brady and the Patriots for the 41-33 win.

Fearless Prediction: The ‘under’ on this game is the most popular total wager of the weekend and it’s hard to argue against it based on the form for the Bears. They enter this game on a 4-0 ‘under’ run and they’ve also covered all four of those games too. My lean on the side is to Philadelphia and when the Bears lose, only four times, they’ve allowed 30.1 PPG and the ‘over’ went 4-0. My lean for the late game is Over (41) and the Eagles Team Total Over (17 ½) as well.

 

[bmd1803]

TEDDY COVERS

Event: (105) Los Angeles Chargers at (106) Baltimore Ravens
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: January 6, 2019 1PM EST
Play: Los Angeles Chargers 3.0 (-110)

3% Take the LA Chargers (#105)

In college, Lamar Jackson gave just about everyone he faced all kinds of difficulties in their first meeting against him – that’s how he won the Heisman Trophy in 2016 as a sophomore. But the second time around – his junior season – Jackson’s numbers declined, as did the fortunes of his Louisville team. Defenses that had seen him once already were able to make adjustments.

What does that have to do with the Chargers – Ravens game on Sunday? Simple: the Chargers faced Jackson two weeks ago. Now, they’ll be the first NFL team to get a second look at a QB that hasn’t yet proved he can successfully complete downfield passes at an NFL level.

When the Chargers faced the Ravens two weeks ago, they did a better job at shutting down Lamar Jackson’s running attack than any other team he’s faced. Jackson did have one run for 27 yards. On his other 12 rushing attempts, he gained a grand total of only 12 yards. Baltimore won the game by margin because Philip Rivers had a rough evening.

Here’s Rivers quote, immediately following that contest: “We got off to a terrible start, turning the ball over on the first play. And we had three third-down conversions called back really that we couldn't overcome. We got ourselves in third-and-super-long a lot. It's a good defense and they outplayed us today……We may get another crack at them in two weeks."

It’s surely worth noting that LA will be healthier for the rematch when it comes to their playmakers on offense. Melvin Gordon should be good to go, Keenan Allen is back near 100% as is Mike Williams. And start tight end Hunter Henry, who has been out all year, looks poised to get back into the starting lineup this weekend, giving playoff veteran Philip Rivers a full complement of weapons. Live dog here! Take the Chargers.

 

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Mike Wynn

Bonus Play: LA Clippers -7 Over Orlando

 

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Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR SUNDAY: RHODE ISLAND +5 over St Louis

 

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Totals4U

Sunday's Free Selection: Rhode Island Rams/St Louis Billikens under 132

 

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Roz Wins

Roz's Sunday, January 6, 2019, Free Pick

(573) CHARLOTTE HORNETS VS (574) PHOENIX SUNS

Take : Hornets

 

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Atlantic Sports

Sunday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: George Washington - 5 1/2

 

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#1 Sports

Sunday's Free Selection: Rhode Island Rams + 5

 

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Platinum Plays

Free Pick: the Phoenix Suns +2 over Charlotte