NFL oddsmakers spill why Patriots, Panthers deserve to be championship faves
By Colin Kelly
The Denver Broncos are the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs, with the home-field advantage conferred by that status. But their offense has struggled for weeks, with Sunday’s AFC divisional playoff game proving to be no exception, and the oddsmakers clearly took note of it.
John Lester, senior lines manager for
Bookmaker, opened the second-seeded New England Patriots as 3-point road chalk for next Sunday’s AFC Championship Game in the Mile High City.
Denver had to rally in the fourth quarter to beat sixth-seeded Pittsburgh 23-16 Sunday, pushing as a 7-point home favorite while getting to its total with just one touchdown and five field goals. The Broncos (13-4 SU, 9-8 ATS) didn’t get that TD until three minutes remained in the game, again leaning heavily on their defense, even with Peyton Manning seemingly healthy.
No. 2 seed New England, meanwhile, was in control throughout its 27-20 victory Saturday over No. 5 seed Kansas City, covering as a 6-point home fave. The Patriots (13-4 SU, 8-7-2 ATS) led 27-13 before giving up a late TD. The win ended a two-game SU and ATS skid, the reason New England will be on the road this week.
The Broncos and Pats met in Week 12, with Denver rallying from a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit to snare a 30-24 overtime victor – again as a home underdog getting 2.5 points. That was the second of seven games that Manning sat out with a foot injury.
This game will feature yet another meeting of Manning and Brady, with a Super Bowl berth on the line.
“New England is road chalk because it is the more complete team, and the bettors aren’t going to back off that side,” Lester said. “We initially took Patriots money and moved to -3.5, but now we are back to the opener after a sharp bet on Denver. As the regular gamblers get involved, we could see the total push up a bit.”
Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas, noted New England is much healthier this time around.
“The Patriots opened a 3-point favorite and closed -2.5 on their last visit to Mile High. In that contest, the Pats had no Julian Edelman or Danny Amendola, but had a two-touchdown lead in the fourth quarter,” Avello said. “The Broncos had no Peyton in that one, however they do for this one. But I’m not sure if that’s a positive or negative.
“I opened the Patriots a 3-point favorite again, and the early money was on New England, driving this number to -3 (-120). I’m trying not to get off of 3 if I can help it.”
‘NFC Championship Game’
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-3)
The Panthers looked so much like a No. 1 seed in the first half Sunday that they overcame a second-half slumber against two-time defending NFC champion Seattle. Carolina, 2.5-point home chalk against the sixth-seeded Seahawks, led 31-0 at the break, didn’t score the rest of the game but still got the 31-24 win and cover in a divisional-round game.
Carolina (16-1 SU) improved to 12-5 ATS, easily the best spread-covering mark among the remaining playoff teams.
Top-seeded Arizona, laying seven points at home to No. 5 seed Green Bay on Saturday, also had a gut-check thriller. The Cardinals (14-3 SU, 9-8 ATS) gave up a Hail Mary touchdown pass from Aaron Rodgers to Jeff Janis as the fourth quarter expired, tying the game at 20-20.
But on the first play of overtime, Carson Palmer hit Larry Fitzgerald with a short pass that ultimately covered 75 yards, and the same duo then finished the job with a 5-yard TD shovel pass to give Arizona a 26-20 victory.
“I divided each team’s first and second-half showings this past weekend before I hung this number,” Avello said. “Arizona started poorly but finished strong, and Carolina started strong and finished poorly. Looking deeper, the Panthers haven’t played well in the second half in three of their last four games.
“I opened the Panthers as 2.5-point favorites because of the strength of home field, although I expected to see Cardinals money. The opposite happened, as the number was bet up to -3. I do believe the price will drop below 3 again, as the Cardinals are certainly as good as the Seahawks and may not fall completely asleep in the first 30 minutes of the game.”
Lester said while the NFC finale may not have the flair of Brady-Manning, he’s expecting a very competitive contest.
“It’s not the sexy matchup like we have in the AFC, but this should be one heck of a game,” Lester said. “It’s a simple home-field edge factor when setting this spread, as these teams are as close as they get in terms of power ratings. We expect to see the wise guys on Arizona early, but I doubt this moves off the key number by kickoff.”
