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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[superbeets]

Spanish La Liga TODAY 11:00

Villarreal

v

Sp. Gijon

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS3		1/2	10/3	11/2	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT VILLARREAL	RECENT FORM
HWHWAWHWAWAL​ Most recent​	2 - 1 3 - 0 1 - 1 1 - 0	ALHWALHDALHL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Sporting have lost six of their last seven La Liga matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Sporting have scored just one goal in their last five La Liga away games and they look up against it when they head to Villarreal. The Yellow Submarine suffered a Copa del Rey defeat to Athletic Bilbao after surrendering a two-goal lead, but after four straight league wins, they should have few problems.

RECOMMENDATION: Villareal to win 2-0
1

 

[superbeets]

Italian Serie A TODAY 11:30

Inter

v

Sassuolo

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BT2		8/13	14/5	5	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT INTER	RECENT FORM
ALHWAWHWHLAW​ Most recent​	7 - 0 1 - 0	ALHDHLAWADHD​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Twelve of Inter’s 13 wins have been to nil this season

EXPERT VERDICT: Wednesday’s 1-0 win at Empoli was classic Inter. They can’t touch Juventus, Fiorentina or Napoli for flair but they continue to grind out results with centre-back Miranda and goalkeeper Samir Handanovic pivotal. Sexy Sassuolo love to turn on the style but may be snuffed out at San Siro.

RECOMMENDATION: Inter to win 1-0
1

 

[superbeets]

English FA Cup TODAY 12:00

Oxford

v

Swansea

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BBC1		14/5	13/5	21/20	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT OXFORD	RECENT FORM
HWHDALHWADAW​ Most recent​	0 - 1 3 - 0 1 - 0 2 - 1	HLALHDHWADAL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Swansea last scored a first-half away goal in August

EXPERT VERDICT: This will be a tricky FA Cup trip for Swansea as Oxford are flying high in League Two thanks to their resilient home form, conceding just eight goals in 12 games. In the League Cup, Oxford stuffed Brentford 4-0 and only lost 1-0 to a second-half strike at Sheffield Wednesday, so it’s unlikely to be a walkover.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw
1


REFEREE: Kevin Friend STADIUM:

 

[superbeets]

French Ligue 1 TODAY 13:00

Nantes

v

St-Etienne

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BTEU		31/20	2	21/10	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT NANTES	RECENT FORM
HDHDADHDADAW*​ Most recent​	0 - 0 1 - 3 1 - 0 2 - 2	HDHDALALHWAD*​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Nantes have drawn five straight league matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Nantes have developed into Ligue 1 draw specialists and they could be set for another stalemate when they host St-Etienne. The visitors have not scored more than one goal in each of their last seven games and they look a short enough price to win.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw
1

 

[superbeets]

English FA Cup TODAY 14:00

Chelsea

v

Scunthorpe

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BT2		2/11	15/2	16	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT CHELSEA	RECENT FORM
HWALHWHDADAW​ Most recent​	3 - 1 2 - 2 3 - 0	ADHWHLAWHDHD​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Scunthorpe have won just one of their last six League One games

EXPERT VERDICT: Chelsea were embarrassed by League One Bradford in last season’s FA Cup so the Blues will be on their guard even against a toothless Scunthorpe side. The Iron haven’t scored more than one goal in their last six League 1 games and it’s hard to see Chelsea being embarrassed again.

RECOMMENDATION: Chelsea to win 3-0
1

 

[superbeets]

Italian Serie A TODAY 14:00

Frosinone C

v

Napoli

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BT S		11	5	1/4	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT FROSINONE C	RECENT FORM
ALHWHLALHLAD​ Most recent​	Unknown	ALHWHDHWAWHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Napoli have lost one of their last 24 games

EXPERT VERDICT: Napoli need greater consistency on the road if they are to win Serie A so it's hard to trust them at such short prices. They should have scored more in a 2-1 win over Torino last time out and could be involved in a lively clash against a Frosinone side happy to open the game up on their own turf.

RECOMMENDATION: Both teams to score
1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Art Aronson

Packers /Redskins Under 45½

While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

Game plans: Washington would be wise to air it out to start this game as the Packers' front four have been anemic with pressure this season and this invariably leads to their secondary getting gassed quicker than usual. But the Redskins normal game-plan involves a commitment to the run and a short passing scheme which includes drag routes and short outs, to go along with a play action bootleg for Kirk Cousins to hit a RB or TE.

Green Bay would be wise to establish the run game, as Aaron Rodgers has simply not received proper protection all year; there's no question that the visitors will be running the ball to start this game so in hopes to open up the play-action later. Controlling the clock, so as to keep its defense off the field of play for as long as possible will be crucial in the Packers chances of scoring the playoff road victory.

Both teams must establish the run to have success and running the ball invariably leads to clock-killing.

Washington's under the radar defense: The Redskins would finish just No. 28 overall in the league defensively, but the team would make up for it by generating 26 takeaways, tired for ninth-best in the league.

Green Bay discipline: The Packers committed just 17 turnovers all year, the second-best number in the NFC, while Rodgers remains one of the most disciplined QB's in the game.

Strong trends: Note that the UNDER is 10-3 in Green Bay's last 13 games and 6-2 in the last eight games between the two teams.

The bottom line: This one has all the makings of a "chess-match," where field position is likely to play a big part in the final outcome and because of that, we'll highly recommend a second look at the UNDER in this Wild Card match-up.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Allen *******

Richmond

I like this Spiders team to shoot down Fordham this afternoon. Fordham has gotten off to a really nice start this year at 9-3. But they bulked up their win total with a weak nonconference schedule. They didn't play anyone and didn't beat anyone of note. The Rams have lost back-to-back games to Boston College and George Washington. Richmond is as good or better than both. Fordham is also dealing with some injury issues, and this veteran Richmond team should take advantage. The Spiders are 6-2 ATS in their last eight league games, and I think that they will win this one going away.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vernon Croy

Seattle -5.5

This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems, and I have Seattle winning this game by at least seven points here Sunday. Seattle is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 rushing yards in their previous game. I look for Seattle to shut down the Vikings running game for the most part and it will force Minnesota into costly turnovers. The favorite is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last 4 games played between these two teams and Seattle is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games when playing a team that has a winning record at home. Seattle has arguably the best defense in the NFL, allowing just 17.3 PPG, which ranks 1st, and they are No. 1 against the run. If the Vikings can't move the ball on the ground I have them getting blown out Sunday against a Seahawks offense that has put up the 4th most yards in the NFL this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Oskeim Sports

Seahawks -4

Seattle enters the NFL Playoffs for the fourth consecutive year and has won its last five road games by an average of 22 points per game. Not long ago the Seahawks traveled to Minnesota and left with a convincing 38-7 win, limiting the Vikings to a mere 125 total yards. Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson, the key component to Minnesota's offense, was held to just 18 rushing yards.

Minnesota takes the field with a subpar offense that is averaging 321 total yards per game at 5.5 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yards per play. The Vikings' one-dimensional attack relies too heavily on Peterson, which allows opposing defenses to stack the box against the run.

Minnesota quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has only thrown fourteen touchdown passes (9 interceptions) this season and now faces an outstanding Seattle secondary that is allowing just 6.1 yards per pass attempt to a group of quarterbacks who would combine to average 6.8 yards per pass attempt.

Overall, Minnesota's aerial attack is 0.4 yards per pass play worse than average (6.4 yards per pass attempt against teams that would combine to allow 6.8 yards per pass attempt), thereby giving the Seahawks' ball-hawking defense a significant 1.1 yards per pass play advantage in this game. In short, I don't envision a scenario under which Bridgewater has success throwing the ball Sunday afternoon.

The question is whether Peterson will have better success against this time around against a stout Seattle front seven that is 0.6 yards per rush play better than average (82 rushing yards at 3.6 yards per carry to teams that would combine to average 112 rushing yards at 4.2 yards per carry). The answer to that question is a resounding no.

Seattle held nine of of its opponents to thirteen or fewer points this season and possesses the NFL's #1 scoring defense at 17.3 points per game. The Seahawks' run defense limited opposing running backs to just 73 rushing yards per game at 3.4 yards per carry on the road this season, and Peterson is likely to be victimized by Seattle's stop unit for a second straight time at TCF Bank Stadium.

Seattle possesses a surging offense that is averaging 26.4 points and 379 total yards per game at 6.1 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yards per play. The Seahawks are also averaging 373 total yards per game at 5.9 yards per play so they are more than capable of moving the ball on foreign soil.

In its final eight games of the regular season, Seattle's offense averaged 32 points and 404 yards per game, a dramatic improvement over the 21 points and 353 total yards per game the Seahawks averaged during the first eight games of the 2015 regular season. Let's also note that Minnesota was 2-4 SU versus .501 or greater opposition this season where it was -61.0 yards per game and -5.0 turnovers.

With the favorite standing at 4-0 ATS in this series, lay the points with Seattle and invest with confidence.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

AC DINERO

Washington Redskins Pk

NFC Wild Card My initial reaction to this line was the odds-maker was begging you to take Green Bay. This team was a preseason favorite (I picked them to win it), they have the experience, and they had a hall of fame QB in Aaron Rodgers. They take on a team that was picked last in their division. That team won arguably the worst division in the NFL. Yes, the have a hot QB in Kirk Cousins. But they have a sub-par defense. Putting it bluntly, the packers have stunk it up to end the season, especially against the run 4.5 YPC). It just looks too easy to take Green Bay, so I won't.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wunderdog

Green Bay +1

These teams are heading in opposite directions, or at least it would appear as Kirk Cousins looks more like Aaron Rodgers than Aaron Rodgers himself. There is a hidden issue in this game. The Redskins did not beat a single team with a winning record this season, and subsequently saw very little resistance in their passing game. They only faced three teams all season that allow fewer than 20.5 points per game as the Packers do, and they generated 704 yards of total offense in the three games. Cousins threw four INTs in the three games, and Washington was 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS in those games, getting outscored 35-15.3 or by 20 points per game. The rest of their schedule against bad teams kept a bad defense from being truly exposed as they were able to hold onto the ball longer, limiting the time the defense was on the field. However, that has not been the case against a team that doesn't allow points, where they allowed 35 ppg! Mike McCarthy is 24-14 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less. I think Green Bay is better served here on the road away from the naysayers in Green Bay, and against an opponent they have a much better matchup against, and they will take advantage of it. Green Bay takes this one.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BIG AL

Minnesota Vikings

These two teams met five weeks ago, and the Vikings were blown out on this field, 38-7. But you know what they say about paybacks! And since 1980, in the NFL Playoffs, teams playing with revenge from a loss in which they gave up 28 or more points are 55-37 ATS, including 5-0 ATS as a home underdog. That’s one reason I favor Minnesota. Another is that home underdogs off back to back wins are 26-5 ATS in non-division games since 1980, if they own a better record than their opponent, including 7-1 ATS in the Playoffs.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Butcher

Washington Redskins -1

Some models indicate that ‘recent trends’ don’t have any statistical impact on a team’s performance in the playoffs when compared to full-year statistics. That might be true and all, but to me Washington passes the ‘eye’ test while the Packers do not when it comes to entering the post-season. Green Bay is on a 2-game losing streak scoring a combined 21 points in those two games. By comparison, Washington is on a 4-game winning streak averaging close to 33 PPG in that span. This is a team that has played much better at home this year, while the Packers have been pretty mediocre on the road. Let’s compare the two:

WAS at home vs GB on the road:

WAS O: +14% DVOA (#9) vs GB D: +3% DVOA (#19)

GB O: -5% DVOA (#19) vs WAS D: -4% DVOA (#16)

In both instances, Washington offense and defense have been much better at home, than Green Bay’s offense and defense. Green Bay’s top CB, Sam Shields, is out, which should only make it easier for the home team to move the ball offensively. At the same time, one thing that Washington does well defensive is pressure the QB, ranking 8th with a 7% ASR% in that department. Green Bay is 23rd in pass protection and dealing with injuries to a number of their offensive linemen. If they struggle with pass-protection again (like they did to end the season), Washington will have a strong chance in this one. But even if they don’t, I think the home team has an advantage in the shoot-out, and that’s primarily due to QB play:

Rodgers: -1% DVOA (#17); 65 QBR (#10); 5.7 PY/A (#42); 61% Completion %

Cousins: +17% DVOA (#6); 70 QBR (#6); 7.0 PY/A (#9); 70% Completion %

Cousins has been the better QB this year and he has better weapons around him than Rodgers. I think Washington is a better team in this matchup, and the fact that you can get them under a FG provides strong value in this one.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BILL BILES

Redskins/Packers over 44.5

These teams struggle on defense and the offenses can put up the points. I expect both teams to score in the 20's and the over to hit. Kirk Cousins led the league this year in completion % and Aaron Rodgers always is dangerous.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

RED DOG SPORTS
Soccer | Jan 10, 2016
Chievo vs. Bologna
draw +208

Bonus Play on the draw at +208 in the match between Bologna and Chievo. The match takes place in Italy on Sunday.

Bologna 1
Chievo 1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Totals4U

Sunday's Free Selection: Purdue/Illinois over 142

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

#1 Sports

Sunday's free selection: Oakland Grizzlies - 21

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

High Stakes Syndicate

Free Selection for Sunday: Virginia Commonwealth Rams - 10