Dwayne Bryant | NFL Side Sun, 01/10/10 - 4:40 PM ¼�
dime bet 108 ARI 3.0 (-130) Bodog vs 107 GBP
Analysis:
NOTE: If your book has Ari‚zona +2.5, then buy the half-point up to +3. And if by some chance Arizona is +3, buy the half-point up to +3.5.
This reminds me so much of last night's Eagles-Cowboys game. Seemed like the world was on the Eagles because they couldn't possibly lose two weeks in a row to Dallas. We had the right side in that game & I feel we have the right side in this one as well. The public saw both rematches yesterday end the same way as the Week 17 games. So public perception is that the Packers will complete the trifecta and once again beat the Cardinals. I disagree, and here's why.
That game last week meant absolutely nothing to Arizona. They saw Minnesota win & lock up the #2 seed, so coach Whisenhunt only kept his starting defense in for one series, and Kurt Warner threw just six passes before exiting. On the flip side, Packers coach Mike McCarthy chose to keep his starters in for a majority of the game. So having a lopsided result is not at all surprising. And that lopsided result gives us great value today. The Cardinals opened as a 2.5-point favorite, but the Packers are now the 2.5-point favorite.
With Anquan Boldin not likely to play, even more people will line up to back the Pack. But Arizona has so many weapons to go with Larry Fitzgerald, such as Steve Breaston and Early Doucet in the passing game, and Beanie Wells has been a beast running the football. Kurt Warner is so good at getting rid of the football before the pressure gets to him, and he's very good at seeing where the blitz is coming from and hitting his hot read. Not taking anything away from Aaron Rodgers, who had a great season. But this is playoff football and he's making his first start. He did not really see the Arizona pass rush last week because they only played one series, but he'll get to know them really well today. And that Packers o-line has been known to give up sacks in bunches.
The Cardinals have the playoff experience, and they love being the underdog. They've covered NINE straight as a dog. Arizona may not have been great at home this season, but they did hammer the Vikings just a few weeks ago. And while the Packers have been on quite a roll, it should be noted that they do NOT own a quality road win this season. Throw out last week's win over the Cardinals' B-team, and the Packers' road wins this season came against the Rams, Browns, Lions, and Bears.
And if this game comes down to a FG, I'll take Neil Rackers over Mason Crosby, who has been very shaky this season.
Bottom line: While the public is enamored with Green Bay, the value lies with the home team with the playoff experience who likes to be the dog. The Pack won't get the luxury of playing against backups this week, and their lack of true road success and playoff experience will show in the end. Take
Arizona.
dime bet 108 ARI 3.0 (-130) Bodog vs 107 GBP
Analysis:
NOTE: If your book has Ari‚zona +2.5, then buy the half-point up to +3. And if by some chance Arizona is +3, buy the half-point up to +3.5.
This reminds me so much of last night's Eagles-Cowboys game. Seemed like the world was on the Eagles because they couldn't possibly lose two weeks in a row to Dallas. We had the right side in that game & I feel we have the right side in this one as well. The public saw both rematches yesterday end the same way as the Week 17 games. So public perception is that the Packers will complete the trifecta and once again beat the Cardinals. I disagree, and here's why.
That game last week meant absolutely nothing to Arizona. They saw Minnesota win & lock up the #2 seed, so coach Whisenhunt only kept his starting defense in for one series, and Kurt Warner threw just six passes before exiting. On the flip side, Packers coach Mike McCarthy chose to keep his starters in for a majority of the game. So having a lopsided result is not at all surprising. And that lopsided result gives us great value today. The Cardinals opened as a 2.5-point favorite, but the Packers are now the 2.5-point favorite.
With Anquan Boldin not likely to play, even more people will line up to back the Pack. But Arizona has so many weapons to go with Larry Fitzgerald, such as Steve Breaston and Early Doucet in the passing game, and Beanie Wells has been a beast running the football. Kurt Warner is so good at getting rid of the football before the pressure gets to him, and he's very good at seeing where the blitz is coming from and hitting his hot read. Not taking anything away from Aaron Rodgers, who had a great season. But this is playoff football and he's making his first start. He did not really see the Arizona pass rush last week because they only played one series, but he'll get to know them really well today. And that Packers o-line has been known to give up sacks in bunches.
The Cardinals have the playoff experience, and they love being the underdog. They've covered NINE straight as a dog. Arizona may not have been great at home this season, but they did hammer the Vikings just a few weeks ago. And while the Packers have been on quite a roll, it should be noted that they do NOT own a quality road win this season. Throw out last week's win over the Cardinals' B-team, and the Packers' road wins this season came against the Rams, Browns, Lions, and Bears.
And if this game comes down to a FG, I'll take Neil Rackers over Mason Crosby, who has been very shaky this season.
Bottom line: While the public is enamored with Green Bay, the value lies with the home team with the playoff experience who likes to be the dog. The Pack won't get the luxury of playing against backups this week, and their lack of true road success and playoff experience will show in the end. Take
Arizona.
