Jeff Benton
For Sunday’s Bonus Play, I’ll play the Phillies on the run line (-1½ runs) against the Cardinals).
Five days ago, I backed the Phillies and Joe Blanton against the Cubs, and Philadelphia came through with a 4-1, 13-inning victory. I said at the time and I’ll say it again: I’m not and never have been a Blanton fan. But you cannot argue with the results the chunky right-hander has put up lately. He’s 2-0 with a 0.83 ERA in his last three starts (all Phillies wins), giving up a total of two runs and 13 hits in 21 2/3 innings. He’s now got eight quality starts in his last 10 outings, giving up two earned runs or fewer in seven of those contests.
Granted, Philadelphia is just 10-8 behind Blanton for the season, but of its last nine wins with Blanton on the mound, eight have been by more than one run. That includes a 6-1 rout of the Cardinals in St. Louis on May 4. In fact, Blanton has faced the Redbirds twice since being traded to Philadelphia last summer, and in each contest, he gave up a run on four hits while pitching a total of 13 innings (1.39 ERA), with the Phillies winning both games.
Meanwhile, with Saturday’s 14-6 rout of St. Louis, the Phillies are now 3-1 against the Cards this season and 5-1 in the last six clashes dating to last year. More recently, Philadelphia is on a 16-3 tear (13-3 at home), and it has pounded out 43 runs through the first six games of its current homestand. The offense should continue to rake tonight against struggling St. Louis right-hander Todd Wellemeyer, who has given up nine runs (eight) earned over 8 1/3 innings in his last two starts. He’s got a 5.68 ERA for the season, a 6.14 ERA on the road and a 5.97 ERA in day games. On top of that, the Cardinals ares 0-3 in Wellemeyer’s three starts against Philadelphia, losing by scores of 7-4, 20-2 and 5-4 – and those were all in St. Louis!
Bottom line: I don’t know how much longer Blanton is going to continue his incredible run, but he certainly hasn’t displayed any signs lately that he’s regressing, and he’s never had any trouble with St. Louis. Besides, even if he does falter a bit today, I’m very confident that Rollins, Utley, Howard, Victorino, Werth and the rest of the Phillies’ potent offense will be able to get their licks in on Wellemeyer and pound out a comfortable victory. Lay the 1½ runs.
(based on a 1? to a 10? Rating)
3? PHILADELPHIA (-1 1/2 runs)