Gametimepicks
Milwaukee (37-31) at Detroit (37-31)
The leaders of the A.L. and N.L. Central Divisions wrap up their three-game series with a pair of aces on the mound, as the Tigers’ Justin Verlander (7-3, 3.39 ERA) opposes Yovani Gallardo (7-3, 2.93) at Comerica Park.
Detroit followed up Friday’s 10-4, rain-shortened victory with Saturday’s 9-5 rout, winning for the third straight game while scoring 25 runs in the process. Jim Leyland’s club carries positive streaks of 48-21 in interleague action, 39-13 in home interleague contests and 8-2 on Sunday, but it is still just 4-6 in its last 10 at home and 3-6 in its last nine at Comerica against right-handers.
Milwaukee has followed up a three-game sweep in Cleveland with the consecutive losses to the Tigers and is now 4-8 in its last 12 contests. Also, in interleague play, the Brew Crew is mired in slumps of 4-11 on the highway and 1-7 against right-handed starters.
These teams split six total meetings in 2006 and 2007, with the visitor going 4-2.
Detroit is 1-2 in Verlander’s last three starts, following a 7-1 run behind the 26-year-old. On Tuesday at St. Louis, the right-hander allowed five runs on eight hits and two walks in just four innings of an 11-2 loss. Prior to that, Verlander had thrown nine straight quality starts, going 7-0 with a 1.10 ERA.
Verlander is 3-0 with a 0.82 ERA in three home starts this year. And in his lone start against Milwaukee, he threw a complete-game shutout in a 4-0 home win two years ago. Detroit is 8-3 in Verlander’s last 11 starts overall and 5-1 in his last six home starts.
Milwaukee is 8-2 in Gallardo’s last 10 starts, including Tuesday’s 7-5 victory at Cleveland in which the right-hander allowed two runs on five hits with six walks and eight strikeouts. Gallardo has given up two earned runs or less in each of his last five starts, going 3-1 with a stifling 1.43 ERA. Gallardo is 4-1 with a 2.89 ERA in seven road starts this year, and this is his first meeting against Detroit.
With Gallardo starting, the Brewers are on runs of 5-0 against winning teams and 4-1 on the highway.
Although Saturday’s game easily went over the total, the Tigers sport nothing but “under” trends, including 21-11 overall, 10-4 at home, 8-4 against right-handed starters, 7-4 in interleague play and 5-0 in Verlander’s last five home starts. On the flip side, the over for Milwaukee is on runs of 6-0 overall (all against the A.L. Central and all on the road. However, with Gallardo pitching, the under is on streaks of 15-7 overall, 11-3 and 7-1 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
L.A. Dodgers (45-24) at L.A. Angels (36-30)
The Dodgers, with the best record in the majors, wrap up their three-game weekend set against the Angels by pitting left-hander Clayton Kershaw (3-5, 4.13 ERA) against veteran right-hander John Lackey (2-2, 6.10) in Anaheim.
The Dodgers halted their rivals seven-game winning streak with last night’s 6-2 victory, as veteran right-hander Jeff Weaver outdueled younger brother Jered Weaver. The Dodgers are now 12-5 in their last 17 road games, but they remain on interleague slides of 21-44 overall (6-5 this year) and 14-38 on the road (3-2 this year).
Although their winning streak ended Saturday, the Angels continue to sport positive streaks of 5-1 at home, 8-2 in interleague play this season (all against the N.L. West), 39-18 overall in interleague action and 19-8 versus the N.L. West.
The Angels have owned this rivalry lately, with runs of 13-6 overall (3-2 this season), 21-8 in Anaheim, 5-1 with Lackey starting against the Dodgers and 4-0 in Lackey’s last five against the Dodgers at home.
Lackey beat San Francisco 9-7 victory on Monday, allowing three runs on 10 hits with no walks and 10 strikeouts in seven innings. In his lone home start this season, Lackey lost 5-2 to Seattle on May 29. However, he’s 5-1 with a solid 1.50 ERA in nine career appearances (eight starts) against the Dodgers. On May 23, he got a no-decision at Dodger Stadium, allowing three runs in seven innings, with the Angels falling 5-4.
With Lackey taking the ball, the Angels are on runs of 17-5 in interleague play and 18-7 on Sunday, but they are also on skids of 4-10 overall and 0-4 at home.
Kershaw rebounded from two straight losses by leading the Dodgers to a 5-4 home win over Oakland on Tuesday, throwing 5 2/3 shutout innings as he worked four hits and three walks around 10 strikeouts, but he got a no-decision. The 21-year-old is 2-3 with an inflated 6.75 ERA in six road starts this season, and in his only career start against the Angels, he got a no-decision in a 3-1 defeat, giving up a run on four hits and four walks in five innings.
With Kershaw on the hill, the Dodgers are on slides of 1-4 against winning teams and 1-4 in interleague play, though they have won four of his last five Sunday starts.
The Dodgers are on “under” runs of 6-2 on the highway, 12-5 in interleague action, 38-16-3 in American League parks and 13-7 versus the N.L. West. Also, the under for the Angels is on stretches of 11-6 at home, 5-1 in Lackey’s last six home starts, 16-5-3 behind Lackey in interleague play and 7-1 with Lackey facing the Dodgers.
Finally, although the first two games of this weekend set have gone over the total, the under is still 9-6 in the last 15 meetings overall and 14-7-1 in the last 22 battles in Anaheim.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS and UNDER