Sunday 05/31/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

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Steve Merril

Oakland Athletics vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Over 9.5

Solid line value in this game as my power ratings predict 10.8 runs and my pitcher performance rating indicate a below average outing for both starting pitchers. Texas is also a strong offensive team at home this season where they average 6.0 runs per game and bat .285 as a team. Texas starter Kevin Millwood had a strong April, but it appears he is starting to weaken as he has struggled in his past two starts, allowing 7 runs in just 13.7 innings with a negative 6-8 strikeout/walk ratio

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sports Gambling Hotline

NY Yankees -130 at CLEVELAND

We are on a 10-5-1 comp play run the last 16 days!

In case you are unaware, the Yankees are finally playing up to their vaunted team salary, as Joe Girardi's team has taken the first 2 of this 4 game set at Progressive Field, and they have won 14 of their last 17 overall.

Have to ride New York once again today, as Phil Hughes has won his last pair of starts, and is coming off 8 scoreless at Texas. Expect Hughes to master the Cleveland lineup, and for the Yanks to hammer their former teammate Carl Pavano.

Yes, Pavano did a respectable job back in April, holding New York to just 1 run in 6 innings at the new Yankee Stadium, but back then the Yankees were struggling to find traction. Right now, the Bronx Bombers are living up to their name, and we like them to rough up the Tribe once again today.

Play on New York to continue their winning streak.

5♦ NY YANKEES

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

LT Profits

Atlanta Braves @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Young Max Scherzer is in peak form for the Arizona Diamondbacks, while Kris Medlen improved noticeably in his second start for the Atlanta Braves, so look for both youngsters to have success this afternoon.

Scherzer has reeled off three straight Quality Starts, allowing a total of five runs in 19 innings over those outings. Most impressive however is the fact that he had 20 strikeouts in his last two starts (1o strikeouts on each occasion) against only two walks! Scherzer has an electric arm, and if he can maintain this kind of control, he will be a force in the Arizona rotation for many years to come.

Now Medlen was horrible in his Major League debut, but he did improve to allow four runs on only four hits in 5.1 innings in his second start, and he may be in line for a Quality Start today with normal improvement. After all, he really had only one bad inning vs. the Giants on Tuesday, and he know that this may be his last chance to stick in the Atlanta rotation.

Finally, the Arizona offense has been very erratic all year, which is anther reason why the Under is 10-4 in the last 14 starts that Scherzer has made. Add in the fact the Braves are only batting .235 vs. right-handers the last 10 games themselves, and we simply do not see this game hitting double-digits.

Pick: Braves/Diamondbacks Under 9.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Karl Garrett

Los Angeles at CUBS -135

The G-Man's comp play run stands at 9-3 the last 12 days!

Baseball action tonight, and we like the host Cubs to make it 3 in a row over the visiting Dodgers.

Los Angeles won the Thursday opener at Wrigley, but has dropped the last pair of weekend meetings, and with Eric Milton on the hill, look for the dormant Cubs' bats to get healthy.

Chicago is making up for their recent losing streak, and starter Sean Marshall has been able to go 2-1 over his last 3 starts.

Expect Marshall to give Lou Piniella 6 soild innings, and that will be long enough for the Cubs to break through against Milton, and the LA pen.

The Dodgers have done far better than expected in Manny Ramirez' absence, and my feeling is they are due for an extended losing streak, especially on the road.

Take the Cubs.

1♦ CUBS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JrTIPS

LA DODGERS vs. CHICAGO CUBS

The Los Angeles Dodgers are the highest-scoring team in the NL, but their offense has done next to nothing since arriving at Wrigley Field. Los Angeles (34-17) has been held to three in this series. Chicago (25-23) has gotten seven innings from each starter in this series.The Dodgers have struck out 21 times while drawing just 10 walks in the series and they will have to face Sean Marshall (3-3, 3.70 ERA), who will get the ball for his eighth start of the year with the Cubs. He pitched all five innings in a rain-shortened 6-1 victory over Pittsburgh on Tuesday, giving up four hits while striking out six. The left-hander will make his third career start versus the Dodgers. He is 0-0 with a 5.19 ERA in the first two. Promoted from Triple-A Albuquerque on May 14th, the Dodgers Milton won his last outing Tuesday at Colorado by yielding one run in five innings in a 7-1 victory.The veteran left-hander is 3-1 with a 6.70 ERA in eight career starts at Wrigley Field, where he hasn't pitched since 2006. Alfonso Soriano is 6 for 12 in his career versus the southpawbut the slumping Soriano is 6 for 45 (.133) with 17 strikeouts in his last 11 games. Both these teams are struggling with their offense and it will be tough to break out against these two savy starting pitchers today.

TAKE OVER 7 1/2 RUNS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Drew Gordon

Houston at PITTSBURGH -135

That's 4 straight Bonus Play winners with the Tigers over Orioles 6-3 Saturday! Part of my 3-0 SWEEP (free & paid plays) across the board yesterday! We keep it rolling Sunday, with yet another FREE winner on the Diamond...

Two southpaws square off today at PNC Park, and maybe if this was 5 years ago, I'd be inclined to back Mike Hampton... But since that's not the case, I'll happily take Paul Maholm in this spot. Why? Well, for starters, he's 2-0 with a stellar 1.98 ERA at home this season! I know full well he's had a couple rough starts of late, but those were on the highway. In fact, his last home start was a real gem, tossing 7 scoreless against the Rockies May 15th!

Meanwhile Hampton has been a disaster of late, going 1-1 with an ugly 7.20 ERA over his last 3 starts. He was especially bad in his last one, getting knocked around for 5 runs on 8 hits over 5 innings against the Rangers at home. Although he does have a nice win over the Pirates already this year, I'm still not convinced... That start was back in April, and since then Hampton has steadily declined.

Finally, although neither team is playing well, at the very least the Pirates are at home, where they sport a winning record & happen to hit lefties particularly well. Pittsburgh averages a hearty 5.4 runs per game against lefties at PNC Park this season, and getting a second crack at the struggling Hampton today is exactly what they need to get back on track. In the end, the Bucs protect their house, as Maholm bounces back nicely at home in this one!

Take Pittsburgh behind Maholm over Houston and Hampton in this MLB match up.

3? PITTSBURGH

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

VEGAS EXPERTS

Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles

The Tigers have cleaned up in day games this year (13-4) and are now 11 games over .500 this season when not play on artificial turf. We don't know what it is, but Sunday has been an unmitigated disaster for the Orioles, who have lost an astounding 27 of their last 32 on this day. Detroit's Edwin Jackson may not have the record to show for it, but he has pitched very well this season, including a 1.62 ERA over five road starts.

Play on: Detroit

 

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Bryan Leonard

3* Detroit at Baltimore

Host will send out rookie Jason Berken to make his second career start. He gained the victory earlier in the week when he limited Toronto to 2 runs in 5 innings of work. Since the Tigers have never faced him the young righty will have a distinct advantage early on today.

Detroit sends Edwin Jackson to the hill looking to continue his season to date success. He will be taking on a Baltimore squad which has really hit him well as of late. Last year while with the Rays Jackson took on the O's twice allowing a .341 batting average and 9 runs scored. In 2007 it was more of the same with a .467 batting average, .800 slugging percentage and 6 of 15 batters faced crossing the plate.

The Orioles have a talented group of youngsters now making their way to the majors and the fans are starting to believe. We expect that positive energy to carry over today as Baltimore wins the series.

PLAY BALTIMORE

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Matt Rivers

For Sunday lay a run and a half with the Greinke's.

John Danks is a quality pitcher that could definitely hold his own today against the mediocre Royals and the White Sox have picked things up of late but with that said Zach Greinke is God right now and until he shows any other side I will back him today. Plus it seems as if his teammates score a ton of runs for him when he's on the mound every single time, save that 1-0 loss in Anaheim.

At some point this insane under 1 ERA run of Greinke's has got to come to an end as it is just impossible to continue. The righthander will get hit give up some runs before the season is out but until that happens I will roll with what is the baseball version of gold.

Chicago did just take that series in Anaheim and won going away on Friday night here so I do respect how Ozzie Guillen's boys have come alive. But this task should be too tall as Greinke right now is on a level that few have ever been on and I mean ever. Look for Thome, Dye, Konerko and the suddenly surging Sox to come back down to Earth a bit and lose this thing something like 4-1.

Both pitchers should put up their share of gooseggs but in the egg Greinke will put up a few more and that should be the difference.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jimmy The Moose

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Over

The Reds have played over the total in 8 of their last 10 divisional games. The over is 4-1 in their last 5 games as a dog. The Reds have played over the total in 7 of their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. The over over is 7-1 when Owings has been on the mound fpr the Reds. The over is 13-3 in Milwaukee's last 16 games following a win. Milwaukee's bats have pop and they'll take advantage of Owings today. The teams have played over the total in 4 of their last 5 meetings. Play the over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jake Timlin

In another easy Run Line selection today I love the Royals behind Greinke today. Yes flat out dominate this season I look for Zach Greinke to continue his lopsided winning ways today as he beats the White Sox for the third time this season. You see for Greinke in 8 of his 9 games that has featured an ERA of just 0.88 two of his wins eight wins have come against the White Sox with wins of 2-0 at Chicago and a 3-0 complete game win at home just a few weeks ago. Thanks to the pair of shutouts it’s Greinke who is working on 15 scoreless innings and four straight wins against the White Sox. Meanwhile, speaking of the White Sox despite their recent upswing in the standing they are still a losing team on the road at 11-15 as will stay that way today as they turn to Danks who at 5-4 this year has been a major disappointment. So backed by the best pitcher in all of baseball right now I look for another lopsided game from the Royals behind Greinke today

PICK: Kansas City Royals -1 ½

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Craig Davis

Our Bonus Play run hasn't been good recently, but we've still nailed 8 of the last 13 and I'm going to make it 9 of the last 14 today with the NY Yankees. Yes, I'm aware that Philip Hughes' season ERA is over 5 and I'm aware that he was only brought up into the rotation because Chein-Ming Wang was absolutely horrendous, but I've seen what Hughes is capable of on his good days and twice this season he has pitched at least seven innings of shutout ball. And with the history of New York owning the Cleveland Indians, it's no wonder Hughes is still the favorite today. That's okay by me... I'm expecting the offense to continue to dominate as it has been in this recent winning streak. Clevaland counters with the aged Carl Pavano and is plus 5 ERA today, and I'm just not feeling him. The Yankees have won 13 of their last 16 as a favorite and 16 of their last 21 overall. Today, the Yanks make it 17 of 22 as they beat the Cleveland Indians yet again.

2? NY YANKEES

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tony Weston

Today's Selection:

We come through with a solid win yesterday as the Rays take care of business. We’re making it two in a row today as we’re taking the Under on the Angels-Mariners games in Anaheim.

The Total for this game is set at around 9 runs, depending on where you’re playing this and these two will fall short of that Total.

Consider that in the first two games of this series the Under has been the smart play and over their last four meetings the Under has come in each time, as these teams have totaled, on average, 4 1/2 runs per.

Keep in mind, too, the Mariners have seen the Under go 9-1 their last 10 games, while the Angels have seen the Under come in 7 of their last 10 games overall. Also, the Under has come in 6 of the last 8 meetings these two have played in Anaheim.

Today, the Under will come in once again as these two play a low-scoring game in Anaheim. Take the Under on this one today.

3♦ ANGELS-MARINERS UNDER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Michael Cannon

San Diego +130 at COLORADO

A winner with the Yankees on the run line yesterday improves my record to 25-16-1 with my last 42 overall Bonus Plays!

Today’s play is a general principle play. What I mean by that is this price is way out of whack and I’m siding with the underdog based on the fact the favorite has no business being priced this high.

I’m talking about the San Diego-Colorado game and I’m taking the Padres.

Look, I know the Padres are not a good baseball team but the Rockies haven’t impressed me either and their play got manager Clint Hurdle fired. This is the same man who guided Colorado to the 2007 NL pennant.

Jorge De La Rosa will start for Colordao and he’s winless on the season with a 5.26 ERA. Despite those numbers Vegas is asking you to lay around -150 to back this clown over the Padres today.

Sorry, but I’ll side with the dog regardless of who it is.

The fact it’s the Padres doesn’t worry me all that much because Colorado hasn’t swept a series from them in over six years.

Take the Padres as the road dog for the win.

3? SAN DIEGO

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JR O'Donnell

St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Francisco Giants
Play Over 7½

The A Pujols lead Cards will be Light'n Up J Sanchez today & his close to 5.00 (E.R.A) We feel he gets rocked today @ home as we note he went 1-3 last 4 & held a lofty 5.35 E.R.A in those outings. ((OVER)) gets the call!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Chris Jordan

Boston at TORONTO +110

Breaking pattern here for the Red Sox here, as I don’t believe there will be any skid-saving heroics here. The boys from Beantown avoided being swept and losing three in a row by knocking off the Mets. They went to Minnesota and after winning the series opener, lost two straight before avoiding a three-game slide to win the series-closer. Here we are again with the BoSox on a two-game slide, and I just don’t think there’s anything left in the tank.

Today marks their seventh straight game in as many days, and there’s that dastardly 2-4 slump they’re mired in right now. Since posting that 6-5 win against the Twins, the Red Sox have had trouble putting runs on the board, scoring no more than three runs the past five outings, averaging 2.6 runs per game.

I mention all this because the Red Sox came into this series staring at an AL East rival that had lost nine straight – beginning with a three-game skid at Fenway Park. Maybe it’s the Rogers Centre, since the Red Sox have lost 10 of their last 14 there. Maybe it’s the road in general, as the Sox are 11-16 while ordering room service.

We have a quality pitcher in Ricky Romero going for us today, as he’s 2-0 in as many home starts and totes a 1.38 ERA to go along with it. And though Boston is 8-2 in Jon Lester’s last 10 Sunday starts, the southpaw is 1-3 on the highway with a 7.04 ERA. And in Toronto, his last two times there, he’s given up 12 earned runs over just nine innings of work.

I’ll take the Blue Jays in this one, as they’re the value play.

1♦ BLUE JAYS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

John Ryan

Seattle Mariners vs. LAA Angels
Play: LAA Angels

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Anaheim as the host Seattle slated to start at 3:35 EST. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has posted a 76-29 making 34.9 units since 2003. Play against road dogs with a money line of +100 or higher and is a poor AL hitting team batting <=.260 facing a team with a below average bullpen sporting an ERA >=4.50 in May games. Seattle is a weak 44-80 (-32.6 Units) against the money line versus good fielding teams averaging <=0.6 errors/game over the last 2 seasons; 10-30 (-18.3 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons. Anaheim starter Santana is a solid 31-14 (+15.4 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 6 or less times/game since 1997. Seattle ranks dead last in offensive production by nearly all of categories and sport a -.67 runs per game differential. if not for their good starting pitching and defense that differential would be at least -1 per game. Anaheim starter Santana has been struggling this season, but facing an anemic offense is just the right remedy to get things moving in the positive direction. Take Anaheim.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JACK JONES

Boston/Toronto Under 9.5

The Red Sox offense is only putting up 3 runs per game over their last seven and then there is Toronto only scoring 3.4 over their last seven. Neither offense is clicking and there should be some decent pitching today. Ricky Romero has a 1.38 ERA at home this year while Jon Lester has struggled this season, but he just pitched a gem against the Blue Jays a little over a week ago when he gave up just a single run in 6.3 innings. I think runs will probably be hard to come by today.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

LARRY NESS

Houston Astros @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PICK: Pittsburgh Pirates

Mike Hampton beat the Pittsburgh Pirates 4-1 on April 15, allowing just four hits while striking out eight in six innings. That's nothing new, as the veteran lefty has won seven straight starts vs the Pirates, posting a 1.36 ERA during that span. He is 11-3 with a 2.57 ERA in 17 starts and six relief appearances all-time against Pittsburgh, with his teams going 12-5 in those starts. That's the good news. The bad news is that while Hampton was sharp in that April 15th start vs Pittsburgh, his 2009 season has not been anything like that. He's 2-4 with a 5.62 ERA in nine starts, as the Astros have gone 2-7 in those starts. Everyone knows his story. He went 73-41 with a 3.35 ERA from 1996-00, going 22-4 with a 2.90 ERA for the Astros in 1999 and 15-10 with a 3.14 ERA for the Mets in 2000 (was NLCS MVP that season). He then suffered through two tough years at Colorado (5.75 ERA), after signing that huge free agent deal. He left the Rockies for Atlanta and had two decent seasons but then various and numerous injuries sidelined him for the better parts of the next four years. He has been unreliable at best in 2009 and let's also not forget that the Astros had lost seven straight (while averaging 3.0 RPG) before they beat the Pirates 6-1 on Friday. Saturday's 7-4 loss makes it EIGHT in the last nine games. Paul Maholm of Pittsburgh has been improving over the last few seasons, getting to 9-9 with a 3.71 ERA in 2008. He showed to be a solid home pitcher last year, as the Pirates went 11-5 in his starts, with Maholm posting a 3.36 ERA. He's 3-1 with a 4.11 ERA in 2009, as the team is 6-4 in his starts. The Pirates are 4-2 in his road starts (despite a 5.82 ERA), while going only 2-2 in his four home starts, where Maholm's ERA is 1.98. Maholm is 5-3 with a 4.91 ERA in nine career starts vs Houston (Pirates are 6-3) but it shouldn't go unmentioned that he haswon his last four home starts vs the Astros, posting a 2.08 ERA. Take Pittsburgh.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DAVID MALINSKY

Oakland Athletics @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Texas Rangers

After getting a couple of easy wins in this series the past two nights we are absolutely in play again, and you know where it starts – the oddsmakers simply do not see the true gap between these teams. The 11 games of separation in the standings, and home/away splits of 18-8 vs. 7-16 do not lie. We can start with the offense, where the numbers are growing most pronounced – Texas leads by 67 runs, a staggering 83-34 in home runs, 101-73 in doubles and 10-3 in triples. But that is only the starting point. In terms of speed it is 40-24 in stolen bases, and we have the #3 defense against one that is ranked 28th overall, and dead last in the American League. Kevin Millwood and a fresh bullpen can take care of the rest.

We have written about Millwood several times already, and how an off-season workout regimen with Nolan Ryan have shaved 15 pounds from his body weight, with a corresponding big chunk of his allowance from the mound. He has allowed fewer hits than innings pitched, while also walking only 21 batters in 72 frames, and is showing a confidence in working the strike zone because of that rejuvenated defense behind him. And with the bullpen also stepping up in a major way, with Frank Francisco still not having allowed a run all season while going perfect in save opportunities, the latter stages are in good hands as well.

Dallas Braden is another of those left-handers that can work the strike zone but just is not going to dominate hitters, which means that the more the league sees of him the tougher his sledding will be. A 3-2/2.10 April has already turned into a 1-3/5.23 May, and now the Rangers get a second-look after one of the more misleading ERA readings of the season. Braden got credit for five shutout innings from this mound earlier, but he was playing with fire the entire time – he needed an alarming 111 pitches to merely get that far, with five hits and four walks allowed, but the dice came up just right for him to not be scored upon. Of course it also helped that Josh Hamilton did not play that day. Now Hamilton is back and the Rangers can turn that previous production into runs, having the bonus of seeing a left-hander for the third time already in this series, with a chance to break it wide open in the latter stages against a dishevelled bullpen after the A’s were only able to get a combined nine innings from Edgar Gonzalez and Brett Anderson in the last two games.