Summer home work: AFC Quarterbacks

[C-Gold]

AFC East:
1. Tom Brady **
2. Chad Pennington *
3. Trent Edwards
4. Dirty Sanchez/Kellen F

1. Tom Brady is either your #1 or #2, no further analysis needed. The funny thing is two years ago I was arguing that he was underrated, underrated in that he hadn't put up the big Peyton Manning numbers but he "could" if needed or had the talent around him.... Most people said he's efficient... well, that's because that was the best way to win, but when you have the talent around you, just flat out outscoring people works too...

2. Pennington is an underrated efficent QB. Yeah he doesn't have a strong arm, but Jemarcus Russell does have a strong arm but would you rather have him. It's like saying a comparing some shitty MLB pitcher who throws 95 and straight to a guy that throws 84 mph and a filthy curve ball. Pennington is the son of a coach and manages the game in a great way....

3. Trent. Trent is a Stanford guy, he's smart, he's trying to play the toughest postion in all of sports and I wouldn't give up on him just yet. He is maturing, it takes time and I wouldn't give up him.

4. Sanchez supposedly " looks good" in camp which may mean they are leaning to start him, ( but would Rex Ryan do that). He might look good thus far but I'll believe in him when I see it. Sanchez is a highly touted rookie fade until he proves otherwise, for all we know, he could be Ryan Leafs brother.

NFC North
1. Carson Palmer *
2. Big Ben *
3 Brady Quinn/DA
4. Flacco F

1. If Carson Palmer is healthy, he could be real good. I've seen this guy rip up a Ravens defense for 370 yards and not everybody could do that. He's been hurt, his WR is a basket case, he doesn't have a good head coach, and they don't have a running back. A healthy Palmer is still one of the best QB's in the NFL and a huge advantage. For that reason, the Bengals might have value right now.

2. Big Ben reminds me about what I said about Tom Brady before 2 years ago. He hadn't had the super numbers but that's because that's not how his team was trying to win games. I think if Big Ben didn't have a good defense and leads to protect, he'd have better numbers...

I do think he holds onto the ball too long, I do think he takes too many hits and is an injury concern, but overall, I'd take him as my QB and I'm not worried about him when I bet on him.

3. Brady Quinn should win the job IMO. I remember when people were talking about drafting DA and I wasn't impressed. I said do it again DA... I think Quinn shows promise, leadership, he has the physical skills, he's sat and watched for long enough... with a little taste of the field. I'd put my money on him to start the most games for the Browns this year and I do think he will be above average.

4. Joe Flacco. If Flacco didn't have a world class defense behind him, his completion percentage and play would come under more scrutiny. I don't believe in him, I think he's overrated, I think he's still a liability at this point... sure, he can make some good plays, but can you do it consistantly? Even the shittiest QB's in the NFL can do good things every now and then, but that's not the object of the game... the best in the game are consistant... I just can't picture Joe Flacco dropping back and picking a team apart over and over again as the Ravens drive down the field... I wouldn't want to fade the defense, but I'd fade Flacco.

NFC South
1. Peyton Manning **
2. Matt Schaub
3. Kerry Collins
4. David Garrard

1. Peyton Manning and the rest is what the NFC South really is.

I don't see any clear winner of the other 3, but I like the Texans to make some noise this year and I think Matt Schaub will have the best year of the 3.

Kerry Collins always threw a pretty ball... last year he was more of a game manager but he passed some when he needed too. He took over for the mobile QB and helped lead his team to a dominant showing last year and a first round bye. I'm not really high on him at this point but he filled in alright for the role asked of him.

David Garrard. It seems like every time you have a QB that runs, the media hypes hypes hypes him up to the roof. David Garrard is NOT a very good passer at this point in time... Jack just wants a game manager that could throw basic passes, run and keep some drives alive, and keep his defense off the field... I mean, they really want a power running game ( drafted 2 more lineman to prove it), they had a 1-2 punch at RB, and they don't even really want to focus on the ariel attack.

NFC West
1. Rivers *
2. Cassell
3. Orton
4. Le Marcus F

1. Rivers. I'm not a big fan of Crybaby Rivers, but he is the best QB in the west. I think he has a lot of talent around him, and I'm not sure what he would do with others around him but his numbers last year speak for themselves. Even with me not likeing him, he's average at worst.

2. Matt Casssel *could* earn a star with me this year, and he could end up better than Rivers, but once again.... Nice season... try doing it again without Randy Moss, West Welker and a good offensive line this year. You showed promise to me last year, and proved you can excel with the pieces around you, but life isn't always that easy pretty boy.

3. Orton. You know people love to dog on old neckbeard, but he didn't look that bad to me last year. In fact, Josh Mcdaniels supposedly took a lesser offer from the Bears because he wanted Kyle Orton over Jason Campbell.... quicker release... quicker decision making...more moxy... more of a natural passer.

Last year Orton was throwing passes to a kick returner, on a cold windy, grass field, he was partly injured... and didn't perform half bad. I can remember a Monday night game where he was rather impressive too on the big stage.

The guy MIGHT actually post some decent numbers in Denver if they run anything resembling that scheme they ran last year, or of Josh installs a passing offense. Do I believe in Orton? NOT at this point in time, but he can shut up his doubters if he does well in Denver and he just might...

Le Marcus: Another big dumb goof ball ultra promoted by the media that sucks. All you need is to be a running QB or be able to throw the ball very far, and the news media will promote your ass to high heavon. You won't get the same critisicm when you suck either.... He's thug loving it.

AFC Stars ( These AFC Teams have a huge advantage)
Tom Brady **
Chad Pennington
Caron Palmer
Big Ben
Peyton Manning
Phillip Rivers

Fades
Dirty Sanchez
Flacco
Le Marcus

The AFC has a number of other guys who "could" make the leap and turn into * QB's... guys like Matt Cassell, Brady Quinn, Matt Schaub, but I'll believe it when I see it. They are guilty until proven innocent.

 

[romecloneout]

damn nice write up....agreee on most of them

 

[BigdaddyQH]

I doubt that Russell even starts for the Raiders this year. He is having major problems with his passing game. He completes pases to everyone. His WR's, his TE, his RB's, opponents DB's, coaches on the sideline, etc...He had a terrible spring. Garcia will be the starting QB by game three, and maybe even earlier. If Garcia is the starting QB, I would have to rank him higher than Orton, and maybe Cassel, who we still do not know a lot about.

 

[C-Gold]

You know you are right. They didn't bring in Jeff Garcia to tutor the big dumb xxx, they brought him in to push him and he will see the field... how much of it, it's anybody's guess.

I'd think Al Davis would let Germ marcus start the season... after he sucks THEN Garcia gets to start. Maybe you are right with game 3... I'll have to take a look at the Raiders early schedule but it looks like they start out with a LOSS to San Diego... If he plays like he did last year, he won't be in there long...

I actually like Jeff Garcia and I think his quick game is better suited for the West Coast offense than the big dumb young guy...


I'd agree that Jeff Garcia would have to go ahead of Orton, but let's remember that Garcia, Orton, and Cassell will all be in new offenses next year... There could be a learning curve.

I was starting to believe in Cassell last year, but throwing 5 yard slants to Wes Welker probably won't be an option this year. He also won't have Randy Moss catching deep balls. Is he going to be more like Steve Young, who followed a legend and played well, or is he going to be more like a Scott Mitchell/Elvis Grbac one hit wonder...

Orton/Cassell/Garcia all might have some "adjusting" to their new offenses but you'd have to think Rivers is the best of the AFC west right now.

If you take out Germ Marcus I'd say...
1. Rivers
2. Cassell
3. Garcia
4. Orton

with Garcia having that upward mobility where he could be #2 in the division....

 

[BigdaddyQH]

I agree with that. Russell is going to be a bust in the NFL. He simply does not have it upstairs, or so it seems. The jury is still out with Cassell, because he does not have nearly the tlent to throw to as he had last year. Orton is a QB that does not fit into the offensive scheme at Denver. Heis the exact opposite of Cutler. Orton depends on dinks and dunks and can not get the ball down field with any consistancy. Denver's offense is not geared to that kind of game.

 

[C-Gold]

You don't think Josh Mcdaiels will have that 5 yard Wes Welker outlet throw he had last year in the offense...

I think there will be a lot of short stuff and that last years Denver offense was QB friendly, but New Englands wasn't bad either. There is a decent chance that Orton looks alright, maybe not right away, maybe in the second half of the year or next year...


The Chicago bears offense was NOT QB friendly.

 

[HAT]

I agree with that. Russell is going to be a bust in the NFL. He simply does not have it upstairs, or so it seems. The jury is still out with Cassell, because he does not have nearly the tlent to throw to as he had last year. Orton is a QB that does not fit into the offensive scheme at Denver. Heis the exact opposite of Cutler. Orton depends on dinks and dunks and can not get the ball down field with any consistancy. Denver's offense is not geared to that kind of game.

A) Only Turner and Dennison were retained from the old regime. You will continue to see some elements of their traditional ground game because of this...Zone blocking, one cut & go, etc.

B) Their overall offensive philosophy will be vastly different from what it was under Shanahan.

C) Once Jay had his mind set on wanting out of Denver...McD chose Orton precisely because he is the exact opposite of Cutler. Cutler often made poor decisions because he thought he could rifle a ball into any tight spot with his arm strength. Orton doesn't have that luxury and should be a much better decision maker. By the way, for all of this talk about Cutler's arm strength....he was woefully inaccurate on the long ball. It was a huge asset on deep posts and allowed him to be very accurate on mid-range throws accross his body but he consistently under/over threw straight bombs when Royal had out run coverage.

What Orton did in Chicago and what Jay did in Denver are good staring points to the discussion but the truth is we won't know until we see them line up under center in their new uniforms.

Personally, I think Jay will fare about the same. His raw talent and the presence of Forte should be enough to overcome the fact that he will have substantially less to work with. (Worse O-line, worse receiving core, less QB friendly OC/HC, less QB friendly home stadium, tougher division). 25 TD, 16 INT, 63%, 4000-ish YDS.

I also believe Orton's numbers will be in the same ballpark which is a huge upgrade for him. What he lacks in physical tools will be minimized by McD's new offense & his vastly upgraded talent on offense around him.

 

[HAT]

You don't think Josh Mcdaiels will have that 5 yard Wes Welker outlet throw he had last year in the offense...

I think there will be a lot of short stuff and that last years Denver offense was QB friendly, but New Englands wasn't bad either. There is a decent chance that Orton looks alright, maybe not right away, maybe in the second half of the year or next year...


The Chicago bears offense was NOT QB friendly.

Agreed....Didn't read all the way down before responding to previous poster.

 

[C-Gold]

HAT- We are on the same page, and I tend to agree with your thoughts. I think people might be a little biased against cutler's accuracy for his arm strength, but trying to fit balls in tight spaces isn't neccesarily him being inaccurate... we all talk about when he does that and it doesn't work, but very often him being a gun slinger does work too lets not forget.

I think Mcdaniels will have a lot more of the short stuff, west coast stuff. If you are throwing a 5 yard drag to Wes Welker, you don't need the strongest rocket arm in the NFL.

He probably wanted Cassell to "build on" what he had, but had to settle for Orton and he did NOT want a big armed slow thinking Jason Campbell It makes sense.



I think the Mke Shannihan, Gregg Knapp, Gary Kubiak is very QB friendly... these guys got strong production out of Jake Plummer, Brian Gresie, Jay Cutler, Sage Rosenfelds etc.

You could argue that that Cutler got to benefit from that high success rate system, and that Orton was in a QB wasteland in Chicago with not a lot of help around him... the team wanting their #1 pick grossman to succeed... winds... grass... weak receivers... and he fared alright...

Orton is a thrower too, I wouldn't call him a gunslinger but he's not shy to throw the ball downfield either.

 

[HAT]

HAT- We are on the same page, and I tend to agree with your thoughts. I think people might be a little biased against cutler's accuracy for his arm strength, but trying to fit balls in tight spaces isn't neccesarily him being inaccurate... we all talk about when he does that and it doesn't work, but very often him being a gun slinger does work too lets not forget.

I think Mcdaniels will have a lot more of the short stuff, west coast stuff. If you are throwing a 5 yard drag to Wes Welker, you don't need the strongest rocket arm in the NFL.

He probably wanted Cassell to "build on" what he had, but had to settle for Orton and he did NOT want a big armed slow thinking Jason Campbell It makes sense.



I think the Mke Shannihan, Gregg Knapp, Gary Kubiak is very QB friendly... these guys got strong production out of Jake Plummer, Brian Gresie, Jay Cutler, Sage Rosenfelds etc.

You could argue that that Cutler got to benefit from that high success rate system, and that Orton was in a QB wasteland in Chicago with not a lot of help around him... the team wanting their #1 pick grossman to succeed... winds... grass... weak receivers... and he fared alright...

Orton is a thrower too, I wouldn't call him a gunslinger but he's not shy to throw the ball downfield either.

Precisely. I've seen Jay make some sick throws into tight spots. He is very accurate on the mid-range stuff because he can get the ball there in a hurry. I was merely saying that in his case a strong arm doesn't translate into a great deep ball on the straight go routes. I've seen alot of people say that him and Hester will make a lethal deep ball combo but that won't necessarily be the case.

As for McD pursuing Cassell that started this whole thing...I'm still of the mind set that TB & Detroit approached him FIRST thinking he may be tempted given his familiarity with Cassell. Josh simply said "we look at any and all offers" in order to see if they can improve the club. Cutler got sand in his vag and the rest is history.

Good point on Turnoverasaurus Rex. Hadn't thought about that. And your right aboput Orton being a 'thrower'. I'm not going to compare him to Brees or anything but the situation is similar. 3-5 year vet getting a new start in a new town with new talent & a new system. You don't get to be a starter at Purdue if you can't throw it around a bit.

BOL this year.

 

[C-Gold]

You know you are a smart guy to realize that. Everybody neccesarily equates STRONG ARM = GOOD DEEP BALL but that isn't always the case. A strong arm doesn't neccesarily mean you will throw a great deep ball.


I Dog on Jason Campbell more than anyone but he does have a strong arm but isn't very accurate on the deep ball, he's a perfect example. Skins fans would see that 1-2 deep balls of play action per game intended for the speedy Santana Moss, that miss by 5 yards or soo. The crowd OHHHH's and Ahhhh's and than AHHHH's after they know they missed a chance when the defense wasn't ready and he over/under threw the guy.

A strong arm isn't JUST for throwing deep balls, like you said, you can put zip on the ball and much easier get that 15 yard out hit... you can hit the HOOK and DEEP CURL and the other intermediate routes in traffic.

Yes, Cutler does make some dumb choices ( who doesn't) but you expect him to learn and grow as he matures. He also does a lot of stuff right as most 2nd year starters aren't throwing for 4500 yards.

I do believe he was in a very QB friendly system and now he will be going against the grain in Chicago but his specific skill set ( strong arm) will give him a natural advantage for 8 games in the windy Soldier Field...

We might want to look at his winning percentage as a key stat for him too as it isn't always easy and pretty outdoors in Chicago. If he throws for 160 yards, 2 TD in late december and gets the win... consider it a good thing.