Summer Doldrums Thread

[jaypaw]

YTD 48-55 +20.92

All my theories have taken a hit lately not to mention Ive been lacking the dicipline necessary to keep myself in the area I'm up to...

So I decided to start a new thread to help clear my head.

huge plus money on oakland tonight - I wonder if the sox are back for sure - or was last night just a random shot?

 

[jaypaw]

I see why

Oakland has won only 6 of their last 20 on the road...

 

[jaypaw]

anyone know off the top of their head how the sox have fared against dotel?

 

[WorldNumberOne]

i know off the top of ESPN.COM's head.

nobody has more than 8 AB's against him and as a group of about 12 of the best players they are 7 for 34.

nothing to really get excited about.

i figured if they could rough up zito they can certainly handle redman. and if oakland couldnt do anything against wakefield , how the hell are they going to beat pedro.

 

[jaypaw]

excellent point - however wakefield is certainly a very different pitcher than pedro for what its worth.

You cant expect these guys to put together another 11 run outing two in a row of course so thats where Im starting with all this.

They put up 9 vs redman at the end of may in 5 innings highlited by 4 runs early in the 4th which notably involved sluggers such as youkillus, millar, mccarty, and bellhorn... This was before the throwing error that got bellhorn to second which ortiz then popped in with a base hit.

Im not saying history doesnt repeat itself and in fact youd think that with nixon and nomar filling in those "blanks" they should be able to do better than that - which is why Im looking at this hypotetically for now given that the payouts are so high if the sox do blow it...

I see lines out for schilling tomorrow at about the same in the high 200s...

so if I bet against the sox both days and they win only one of the two Im in pretty good shape.

I guess thats ultimately my question - can they sweep the As ?

Im considering betting against it.

 

[jaypaw]

excuse me I mispoke - high 200s in terms of the alternate run line...

 

[jaypaw]

so if I were to take that bet heres how I'd do it:

Oakland +211
Oakland -1.5 +292
vs pedro

Oakland +180
Oakland -1.5 +260
vs Schilling


Still trying to decide if the risk is worth the reward as my cusion continues to dwindle of late...

 

[WorldNumberOne]

jay , their are 29 other teams in MLB. why must you let the red sox get in your head so often ?

whatever you do , good luck

 

[WorldNumberOne]

not to mention both pitchers are a combined
12-0 at home this year . i think ...

 

[jaypaw]

because i see them the most...

It has worked so far - and even though Ive lost a bunch of what had won over the last week on them I still am ahead enough not to panic with the strategy.


I honestly dont think they can sweep here.

The last team they swept was toronto on may 21st and before that it was april when they last swept someone...

It is kind of a stretch to say this is a sure thing because after what they did last night combined with oaklands road record makes this much less attractive.

Having said that if I play it safe and only take the Oak ML both nights and lose I'd still only lose two units of the 20 I'm up right now...

I say its worth a shot.

no?

 

[jaypaw]

Oakland +211


ok I'll play it safe

dammit

 

[WorldNumberOne]

i dont know.

i look at schilling's home game logs and they are a joke. he gets about 8 runs a game and looks unbeatable.

if i was looking for a team to get a win out of the last 2 games of a series that is a dog and a nice payday on the alt. runline i might give seattle a try.

tough call.

 

[jaypaw]

good point about schilling

another point about him is that he has won his last 3 starts and in his last one he went 9 innings...

Is he really gonna win 4 in a row?


Pedros in the same boat - hes won his last 3 decisions and hasnt lost in his last 8 starts...

I know this is what you expect out of this one two punch but this team is in dissarray - they are all looking over their shoulder every time theo walks by, and not to mention if francona knows whats good for him hes got a late summer vacation planned if he doesnt tear through this and win about 10 games in a row...

Youve convinced me to stand back some though and just go with the RL and if they do complete the sweep and I do lose the two units I PROMISE I will start to lay off these guys more.

I will admit Im addicted to betting on them.

 

[WorldNumberOne]

enjoy hashing things out with ya . you didnt get up over 20 units for no reason. keep working hard.

good luck.

 

[jaypaw]

well one down one to go

schilling has gained in price so I hope this isnt all for not...

11 runs 2 nights in a row - holy crap.


Dotel has had a much needed 2 nights off. I wonder how schillings ankle has been?



Oakland +215

 

[jaypaw]

oops forgot to update the loss:


YTD 48-56 +19.92

 

[jaypaw]

I see a few more that I like - havent gone against contreras in a while, zambrano hasnt lost to the yanks this year, and the guy going for Texas has looked halfway decent in his last 2 outings (as compared to elarton who hasnt won one all year...)

Tampa +149
Tampa -1.5 +209
Texas -107
Texas -1.5 +147

 

[jaypaw]

L-Tampa +149
L-Tampa -1.5 +209
W-Texas -107
W-Texas -1.5 +147
L-Oakland +215

2-3 -0.53 on the night

YTD 50-59 +19.39

doldrums are in full swing...

 

[jaypaw]

holy crap arroyo is listed at -150


what the...

Benoit has been improving but looking at the big picture he has had some major letdowns himself.

Although Texas has been doing well and after last night in Boston I guess texas might be worth the plus money here.


Crap - now Im really in a dilemma, I promised I wouldnt keep betting against the sox if they completed the sweep but convince me here that this isnt a good plus money op...

 

[jaypaw]

"Youve convinced me to stand back some though and just go with the RL and if they do complete the sweep and I do lose the two units I PROMISE I will start to lay off these guys more"

That said - Texas is gonna destroy Arroyo tonight...

and Texas +142 is too good to be true in my twisted homer mind.



Texas +142