Stupid Question

[jbenef]

This is for NCAA and NFL.
When a line opens at +3 for team A or -3 for team B on a Tuesday, and then moves to either pk or the opposite +6/even by Friday. Does that set off red flags or is it just public opinion and the books are moving the line to get the vig and least losses?
What about sharp plays?
Thanks for any inputs.

 

[jbenef]

No help?

 

[bullets]

To me, it depends who is moving the line.

 

[jbenef]

To me, it depends who is moving the line.

Can you explain that?

 

[Jlip9]

depends on where the money is at in the game. look at the betting trends. Its a definite red flag if all the money is on team B at -3 and the line goes to pick.

 

[trentmoney]

with the title of this thread i thought it would be "should i follow the guy with the video game simulations..??"

"3" is the strongest number out there... if it moves off it there is probably good reason, lots of books will just change the juice not to get sided, but ultimately you need to play the play you handicap

:toast:

 

[m3350z]

first check for injury info...

 

[jbenef]

with the title of this thread i thought it would be "should i follow the guy with the video game simulations..??"

"3" is the strongest number out there... if it moves off it there is probably good reason, lots of books will just change the juice not to get sided, but ultimately you need to play the play you handicap

:toast:

That's funny!
I have been reading the posts, but I have not decided to follow blindly. There are a lot of good cappers on numerous sites that actually provide input on the games. I follow those guys (and of course gut feeling sometime).

 

[trentmoney]

That's funny!
I have been reading the posts, but I have not decided to follow blindly. There are a lot of good cappers on numerous sites that actually provide input on the games. I follow those guys (and of course gut feeling sometime).

there is a big difference between

"i have not decided to follow blindly"

and

"I have decided not to follow blindly"

i hope you make the wise decision


good luck

 

[jbenef]

Trentmoney - Yes!
Thanks for correcting me.

 

[Jetplane]

my opinion is... the book got caught so bet the fav. *BUT NOT ALWAYS* as you need to see where the money is. Sometimes it's also a reverse move. So if you see value when you have team A as -3 and now is PK. TAKE IT!

If team A is -3 and now is -6... then of course you are going to need to see if it's worth your money to play.

 

[bellyputter]

Don't ever confuse the "value" of the # 3 with college football and the NFL.

 

[Jetplane]

Don't ever confuse the "value" of the # 3 with college football and the NFL.

he's right, my bad >

 

[jwunderdog]

Unless there is major news, no book is going to move a # 6 points because the public is betting them. BUT unless you got close to the orginial # it is probably of little value.

 

[709]

This is for NCAA and NFL.
When a line opens at +3 for team A or -3 for team B on a Tuesday, and then moves to either pk or the opposite +6/even by Friday. Does that set off red flags or is it just public opinion and the books are moving the line to get the vig and least losses?
What about sharp plays?
Thanks for any inputs.

Usually the line will not move more than 2 points during the week. However, it could move to three points or more base on the factor of "Public favorite" QB's injury (QB position only) or a very bad weather that public team got a heavy favor early could reduce down to the game time.