Strength of schedule

[manterro]

I ran across this info on another message board and thought it might be helpful:

Going back 12 years in the wild card round, when there is a strength of schedule disparity of 10 spots or more, the team with the tougher strength of schedule is 22-3 ATS. Arizona's SOS was 8, Carolina's was 22.

25 games over 12 years is not an extremely large sample size but the battle tested teams usually win this round.

I like both dogs (Baltimore and Arizona) to win straight up today. GLTA !

 

[manterro]

Even though the strength of schedule disparity between Pittsburg and Baltimore is less than 10, I think Baltimore wins this game by a last minute field goal.

 

[BROOMSKI]

how many of those teams had a 3rd string qb starting though ?

 

[manterro]

how many of those teams had a 3rd string qb starting though ?

Good point. Probably few, if any, teams were using a 3rd string QB.

 

[BROOMSKI]

good stat to remember though.....nice find

 

[TheComputerGroup]

how many of those teams had a 3rd string qb starting though ?

Was gonna say the same.......thing is, Lindley is so my very terrible.

Only thing I can think of is Arian's will have some exotic game plan that might surprise Carolina.

Like the Ravens!

 

[powerz]

There is no doubt one of this 6,6.5dogs win out right to blow up the readers. Gl manterro

 

[LENBO]

Here are this season’s Strength of Schedule numbers for the first round games. If you subscribe to this theory, plays should be made on Baltimore, Arizona, Detroit, and Cincinnati.

Matchup (SOS) CRIS’s current line
Baltimore (29) +3 at Pittsburgh (30)
Arizona (10) +5.5 at Carolina (22)
Detroit (23) +7 at Dallas (31)
Cincinnati (18) +4 at Indianapolis (24)

 

[isellgel]

Other than Zona, all these teams had soft schedules.

 

[wizardofodd]

A difference of 10 or higher, which is why Zona was only stated.
Thanks for info

Here are this season’s Strength of Schedule numbers for the first round games. If you subscribe to this theory, plays should be made on Baltimore, Arizona, Detroit, and Cincinnati.

Matchup (SOS) CRIS’s current line
Baltimore (29) +3 at Pittsburgh (30)
Arizona (10) +5.5 at Carolina (22)
Detroit (23) +7 at Dallas (31)
Cincinnati (18) +4 at Indianapolis (24)

 

[chonce]

I like the logic, but think the Qb situation in Zona makes this an outlier. Some teams can handle a QB injury (or two) better than others. But the Cards, since Palmer went down, are essentially a bad team. In the modern NFL, the QB is so important, and I feel the Cards in the last 5 weeks are basically a different team than the Cards of Week 1-10. Thus, they should be handicapped as a different team.

All of that said, there is real value in the Cards today. It is the sharp play, but may also still be a loser. They may not score a TD

 

[TheComputerGroup]

I like the logic, but think the Qb situation in Zona makes this an outlier. Some teams can handle a QB injury (or two) better than others. But the Cards, since Palmer went down, are essentially a bad team. In the modern NFL, the QB is so important, and I feel the Cards in the last 5 weeks are basically a different team than the Cards of Week 1-10. Thus, they should be handicapped as a different team.

All of that said, there is real value in the Cards today. It is the sharp play, but may also still be a loser. They may not score a TD

Very good points, & unless Arian's has a plan unseen before, the Cards will be doing a lot of running in the rain......thing is, the Cards can score on defense.

Still a no touch game for me because of Lindley.....if Stanton was playing, all systems go.....

 

[chonce]

I actually have a small play on CAR. All of my handicapping suggests the opposite. But I got 4.5 early and am fading Lindley -- for 4 hours I am a square, but oh well