So far this season lines that moved from home favorite to home dog are 2-0 (this on clear moves where all books changed their numbers, closing line if I'm not mistaken)
05/11/2008 Washington Wizards vs Milwaukee Bucks (+1) @ 2.00 (104-112 after OT)
07/11/2008 Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets (+1) @ 1.917 (105-108)<TABLE style="WIDTH: 214pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=285 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 214pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 10422" width=285><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 214pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=285 height=17></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Couple matches had a semi-swap where line moved for a moment to other side and then came back or where it was possible to select the +1 option at pinnacle with -110 odds. those are 1-2 so far. incl last nights Suns vs Jazz.
The main reason why these plays do good overall is because home factor is something that can easely ignored, the away team is often the better of the 2 and there is too much focus on the pure strainght of the teams. So it's easy to think the better team should win while home factor is often key in such matches. It will often turn out in a close match where home advantage comes trough when closing down a match while getting a +1 line instead of a -1 line which makes a huge difference in this scenario
05/11/2008 Washington Wizards vs Milwaukee Bucks (+1) @ 2.00 (104-112 after OT)
07/11/2008 Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets (+1) @ 1.917 (105-108)<TABLE style="WIDTH: 214pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=285 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 214pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 10422" width=285><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 214pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=285 height=17></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Couple matches had a semi-swap where line moved for a moment to other side and then came back or where it was possible to select the +1 option at pinnacle with -110 odds. those are 1-2 so far. incl last nights Suns vs Jazz.
The main reason why these plays do good overall is because home factor is something that can easely ignored, the away team is often the better of the 2 and there is too much focus on the pure strainght of the teams. So it's easy to think the better team should win while home factor is often key in such matches. It will often turn out in a close match where home advantage comes trough when closing down a match while getting a +1 line instead of a -1 line which makes a huge difference in this scenario
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it is not about who is a dog and who is a favorite... books look at one thing, the number. i don't have the numbers in front of me but i would venture to say the number 1 is not a very important number in the NBA.
compare that to a 2 point move the other direction and you have to consider how important the 1, 2, and 3 are.
compare that to a 2 point move the other direction and you have to consider how important the 1, 2, and 3 are.
Just curious does anyone have any type of records for Over/Under on games where the opening line jumped 3-5 pts higher at closing. Does that usually mean playing the UNDER or OVER. I see the Lak/Chi 197.5/202 , Atl/Ind 203.5/207.5, Mil/Den 191.5/195 or vice versa Dal/Cha 189.5/187.5 , Cle/Nj 197.5/195 anyone understand what I'm trying to point out?
