Stinkers Week 5

Michelangelo · Oct 6, 2016

Wk 1 // 2-5-1 -311
Wk 2 // 6-2 +397
Wk 3 // 6-4 +185
Wk 4 // 5-4 +96

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Thursday:

Arizona -3' -110 (@ San Fran)
If they lose tonight one of these teams will go to 0-2 in the Division before they even play Division Big Dog, Seattle. That team would be Arizona. San Fran is 1-1 in the Division. Last year Arizona was 5-0 SU (but only 2-3 ATS) in spotlight games. This year they are already 0-1 both SU and ATS as they lost to New England opening week on Sunday night. It's time for the heavily touted Cardinals to shit or get off the pot.

Michelangelo · Oct 9, 2016

Love getting a good start to the week on Thursday. Let's see i we can lay some big stink today.

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Here's my plays. Will follow with writeups.

Cleveland +10 +105 (vs NEn)
NYJ +9 -102 (@ Pit)
Washington +4 -109 (@ Balty)
Detroit +3 +100 (vs Philly)
Chicago +4 -105 (@ Indy)
LAA +2' -100 (vs Buff)

Writeups to follow.

Michelangelo · Oct 9, 2016

Cleveland +10 +105 (vs NEn)
Teams who have winning streaks broken with a home loss, then go on the road are bad bets. The bet gets worse when Super Man is putting on his cape for his first action of the season because that causes a letdown affect for his teammates who are expecting to ride on that cape. And the bet gets worse again when said team is a double digit road favorite. Oh yea, who leads the NFL in yds per rush? That would be the Brownies at 5.7.

NY Jets +9 -102 (@ Pits)
Harvard Fitz has thrown 9 picks to one lousy TD in his last two games. That ain't too smart. Expect him to get that ratio on the positive side today against a porous Pitt secondary. The Jets of 2014 beat Pit SU as 4 point Home Dogs in their 4-12 season. Looking for a possibility of another upset today.

more writeups to come

Michelangelo · Oct 9, 2016

Washington +4 -109 (@ Balty)
Washington's two wins have come against teams with a combined record of 2-6. Balty's three wins have come against three teams with combined records of 3-9. Looks like the same ratio to me. I'll take the generous +4.

Detroit +3 +100 (vs Philly)
This is the Super Stinky line of the day. 3-0 Philly, well rested off their bye, comes to the Town of Rusty Old Cars and Bad Football and is only a 3 point favorite? The gasses coming out of those rusty tailpipes stink bad.

Michelangelo · Oct 9, 2016

Chicago +4 -105 (@ Indy)
So Andrew Luck has only thrown 3 picks in 4 games. Last year he threw 12 in 7 games. Think he reverts to his old self today against a Bear pass D which has only allowed 210 passing yards per game. Andrew Luck is 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS as a favorite over the past two years.

LA Rams +2' -100 (vs Buffs)
So Buffalo slayed the Monster Patriot like David taking down Goliath, 16-0. Humiliated 'em. Think they're gloating a little with Sexy Rexy leading the way? Well the glow will get dark fast when they head cross country to LA LA Land to be greeted by one of the NFL's biggest surprise teams of early 2016. Rams butt Buffs.

Michelangelo · Oct 9, 2016

Add:

Minnesota -6 -105 (vs Hou)
3-1 Houston goes into 4-0 Minny. Those three Houston wins came at home. In their one loss they went into Foxboro and got shut out badly by a third string QB, 27-0. Brock Osweiler has thrown 5 TDs and 6 picks. What are those numbers going to look like against the best Defense in the NFL? Minny has covered 10 straight when lined as a favorite. Make it 11.

Michelangelo · Oct 9, 2016

Lousy afternoon.

Add Sunday night:

Green Bay -7 +104 (vs NYG)
I don't have anything to support this pick. Just think the Odell Beckham antics say something bad about the G-men and I'm expecting it to play out on the field in some way. High profile disruptions tank teams.

chonce · Oct 9, 2016

The Giants are a strange team. They get lots of yards, but only 18 ppg.

They get 20 yards per point, compared with GBS 11.5.

http://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/new-york-green-bay-odds-october-9-2016-728676

Michelangelo · Oct 10, 2016

Thanks for the input, chonce. Always welcomed. Unfortunately the Pack couldn't close the Gmen out. Push.

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Add Monday:

Tampa Bay +5' -103 (@ Car)
One of these teams is 1-0 in the Division. One is 0-1. Normally I would be on the team who is 0-1. But the 1-0 team is likely smelling blood for the first time in a while. Carolina is banged up. But beyond that this Tampa team, although only 7-13 SU the last two years, is 3-1 SU and ATS when on the road in their Division. Oh yea. They were lined as +9', +7', and +2' in those three SU road Div wins. Go Jamies Winston.