Steelers SU Win

SportsAlmanac2000 · Jan 9, 2009

I'm not a big "trends" guy, but these two trends stand out this week...

No team has advanced to a conference title game since 1996 without winning 10 games or more (0-7).

The Steelers have never lost a divisional game after having a bye in the wild card round (5-0).

I'm not going to risk any money on the spread - the Chargers are a good team and keep games close, but adding the Steelers ML to a parlay looks like a good value play.

pumpuup · Jan 9, 2009

Sports Almanac 2000 said:
I'm not a big "trends" guy, but these two trends stand out this week...

No team has advanced to a conference title game since 1996 without winning 10 games or more (0-7).

The Steelers have never lost a divisional game after having a bye in the wild card round (5-0).

I'm not going to risk any money on the spread - the Chargers are a good team and keep games close, but adding the Steelers ML to a parlay looks like a good value play.

I see a close game that could go either way. Yes, the Steelers have a great defense but I'm not impressed with their offense. Chargers I think will be able to chip away at the running game with lots of screens and short passes. There defense has been playing much better lately too.

I think that the best way to bet this weekend is with teasers. My favorite teaser this weekend is Baltimore +10 and Carolina -2.5. This is also the teaser of a well respected capper on here.

Good luck whatever you decide to do.

TheChief+ · Jan 9, 2009

The Steelers find ways to win even when everything goes against them. At home after a bye week, with the experience that Roethlisberger has leading his team in January, and with a rugged defence that San Diego will have fits against....I give respect to San Diego but ultimately I can't see Pittsburgh losing here. And if weather ends up playing a factor in this game I would also think that Pittsburgh covers the spread.

krk1030 · Jan 9, 2009

Tough to back pitt ats, when they won by just 1 at home in the snow before the chargers got hot.

coitus_maximus · Jan 9, 2009

Does anyone know if Big Ben will be in after his concussion? Don't know if they win with Leftwich.

woodypaige · Jan 9, 2009

coitus_maximus said:
Does anyone know if Big Ben will be in after his concussion? Don't know if they win with Leftwich.

He's 100% and practiced all week.

citylinesports · Jan 9, 2009

Tease the Steelers and the under for a winning ticket.
The Steelers D will stop SD. The weather will be really cold,
near 20 degrees, light snow. The city will get 8
inches of snow tomorrow. The Steelers are a bad weather team.

ColonelLingus · Jan 9, 2009

I would never bet on a team with a crappy OL and a QB coming off a concussion. But that's just me.

uscmd · Jan 9, 2009

Yes, but trends get less meaningful as the playoffs get started.

Prior to this year no team starting 4-8 ever made the playoffs and if SD and Bal win this w/e we'll have 2 that started 4-8 in the AFC championship game/super bowl.

I felt that Pit was the play here, until I read that big Ben was complaining that "his head was so swollen his helmet was too tight". Like a lot of you, when I first read that I laughed.

But I got to thinking and if his head is swollen that can't be good. If its not swollen, is kidding, or mistaken? (I'm an MD and that sort of thing is fairly rare. Auto accidents, allergies, ??) Either way, its not something you want a qb thinking about before one of the teams biggest games of the year.

Also, I'm afraid that the SD defense might interpret it as a bit like Ben's a pinata.....and they'll be trying to take him out. What would you think of Pit's chances if Ben has to leave them game? I'm certain, that fact has crossed their minds.

I've moved this game down to pick 'em, advantage wise....no real value to the player. The weather is going to be cold, ~30, with a little wind, but dry. Freezing rain, would maybe tilt the field towards Pit. Less friendly for the Chargers.

My 2 cents

Scans33 · Jan 9, 2009

Colonel Lingus said:
I would never bet on a team with a crappy OL and a QB coming off a concussion. But that's just me.

I would never bet on a warm weather team with their star RB out, on the road, against a rugged, rested, battle-tested squad with the #1 defense in the league ...

ColonelLingus · Jan 10, 2009

Scans33 said:
I would never bet on a warm weather team with their star RB out, on the road, against a rugged, rested, battle-tested squad with the #1 defense in the league ...

Did you see this post earlier?

lor said:
home teams with rest in this round of the playoffs are 6-5 su & 1-10 ats in the last 5 years

Good luck with your wager, sir.

RudyRuetigger · Jan 10, 2009

Colonel Lingus said:
Did you see this post earlier?

Good luck with your wager, sir.

...says the guy who has a girl wearing a chargers shirt as his icon.

:nohead:

ColonelLingus · Jan 10, 2009

Shhhnake said:
...says the guy who has a girl wearing a chargers shirt as his icon.

:nohead:

And betting the Bolts ML +235. :nohead:

Dave007inVegas · Jan 10, 2009

krk1030 said:
Tough to back pitt ats, when they won by just 1 at home in the snow before the chargers got hot.

If you are considering the Chargers based on the regular season game read this first………
The Steelers won on a cold and snowy day, 11-10, the only game decided by that score in NFL history. Ben Roethlisberger passed for 308 yards, Willie Parker ran for 115, Hines Ward had 124 yards receiving, the Steelers had no turnovers and they did not score a touchdown.
The Steelers outgained the Chargers, 410-218, and held the ball for 36:31 to San Diego's 23:29, intercepted Philip Rivers twice and won by a point on Jeff Reed's third field goal with 11 seconds left. The Steelers also had 13 penalties to San Diego's two, and Troy Polamalu ended the game with a touchdown return that was disallowed after a replay review; the NFL later admitted it should have been ruled a touchdown. Those who bet on the Steelers and the five-point spread lost millions of dollars with that wrong call. Steelers D still # 1 in points allowed giving up an average of 13.9 per game.

SportsAlmanac2000 · Jan 10, 2009

Yes, but trends get less meaningful as the playoffs get started.

That would be fine - if they weren't "playoff trends". LOL

kingking · Jan 10, 2009

thanks for this. glad i teased pitt to a pick um with phi +10.

EVincent · Jan 10, 2009

This game could easily go either way.

Kickoff temp with windchill will be around 10 degrees.......LT out & Gates banged up..Sproles should be neutralized on the sorry field.

Pitt should win, but cant trust Ben and that offense.

statman03 · Jan 11, 2009

Dude...........San Diego is not in Pittsburgh's division...........San Diego plays in the AFC West and Pittsburgh plays in the AFC North..........this game goes to the wire..........Pittsburgh by two.........take the points........San Diego 18/4/3 ats as a dog.........13/3/3 as away dog

MackDonald · Jan 11, 2009

It's all about the "bone chilling" weather in Pittsburgh in the middle of January (at night); even the fans head for the "nooks and crannies" seeking shelter.

The outcome of this game will depend on which of these "millionaires" wants to play footballand and which ones want to be huddling around the end of the "hot air" blowers.